1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum oxide main contract fluctuates weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, supply may slightly shrink and demand is optimistic. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines below the 0 - axis with expanding green bars. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract fluctuates, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increasing and inventory steadily decreasing. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with converging green bars. It is also recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,930 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract is 2,563 yuan/ton, down 2,563 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,434 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 419,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - The difference between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum is 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for aluminum oxide, it is 4 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the aluminum oxide spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum premium/discount is 19,920 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the basis for electrolytic aluminum is 90 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis for aluminum oxide is 94 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national aluminum oxide monthly production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons. The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide is 30 million tons, up 9 million tons; the monthly import volume is 1.12 million tons, down 3.05 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum is 221,820.89 tons, up 21,622.20 tons; the monthly export volume is 8,699.85 tons, up 5,273.31 tons. The monthly production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons; the monthly production of aluminum alloy is 165.50 million tons, up 10.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.17 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.30%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.58%, down 0.0036. The option put - call ratio is 0.59, down 0.0205 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of established policies, including a special consumption - boosting action and using 5 trillion yuan of national - level investment funds this year. A series of measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one [2]. - The central bank will prevent exchange - rate over - adjustment risks, maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates and create new structural monetary - policy tools [2]. 3.8 Aluminum Oxide Viewpoint Summary - Due to the low - level operation of the aluminum oxide spot price, some producers' profits are inverted, leading to production cuts or maintenance, and the domestic production is expected to slightly shrink. The electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit conditions and strong production willingness, so the demand for aluminum oxide is optimistic [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum plants have completed the resumption of production, with high - level operation of production capacity and high operating rates. The cost has slightly decreased, so the supply is stable. The downstream aluminum - product processing enterprises may benefit from domestic - demand expansion policies, and the domestic electrolytic - aluminum social inventory is steadily decreasing [2].

铝类产业日报 2025/4/17 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19,645.00 | +100.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,828.00 | +13.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 50.00 | +15.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | +2.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 218,124.00 | -2802.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 100,589.00 | -13102.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 185,050.00 | -4825.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合 ...