Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% [3]. - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment is experiencing accelerated declines, with revenue from this category dropping by 23.60% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while the ordinary liquor segment saw a 32.90% decline [4]. - The company is increasingly reliant on the domestic market, with revenue from Anhui province decreasing by 20.29% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province fell by 36.38% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 73.62%, which decreased to 68.33% in Q2 2025, reflecting a decline in scale effects and increased costs [5]. - The sales and management expense ratios increased, with sales expenses rising by 13.20% year-on-year due to increased marketing efforts [5]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 35.76%, down 0.66 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Revenue Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 6.18 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 15.9% compared to 2024, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [7][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.03 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.6% [7][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 18 for 2025, decreasing to 14 by 2027 [7][10]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to decline from 3.4 in 2025 to 2.7 in 2027 [7][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q2 2025, with total revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.2% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.11 billion yuan, down 24.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 302 million yuan, down 35.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The demand pressure in Anhui Province has increased, with the sales performance of the cave-aged series expected to outperform the overall market. The mid-to-high-end liquor segment saw revenue of 817 million yuan, down 23.6% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 210 million yuan, down 32.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on promoting sales and alleviating channel pressure, leading to slight pressure on profit margins and cash flow. The gross profit margin decreased by 2.62 percentage points year-on-year, and the sales expense ratio increased by 3.43 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 6.23 billion yuan, 6.57 billion yuan, and 7.20 billion yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -15.1%, +5.4%, and +9.7% respectively. The net profit forecasts are 2.14 billion yuan, 2.30 billion yuan, and 2.58 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.4%, +7.4%, and +12.4% respectively [4][5][12]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.6 for 2025 and 16.4 for 2026 [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The company is expected to see a narrowing decline in revenue and net profit in the second half of 2025, driven by a potential recovery in the mass market segment and the low price point of the cave-aged series. The third quarter is anticipated to enter a low base period year-on-year [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20][5] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5] - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave series products, which are expected to continue to show double-digit growth throughout the year, despite a general decline in demand for other products [2][4] - The company is actively managing its channel structure to ensure healthy inventory levels and is expected to maintain a strong market presence in the domestic market [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [1] - For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 74.00 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8%, and the net profit is projected to be 26.24 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 1.3% [5][6] Product Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary white liquor in 2024 is expected to be 5.713 billion yuan and 1.290 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.8% and -6.6% [2] - The cave series products are anticipated to maintain strong growth, particularly the Dong 9 and Dong 6 variants, which are expected to outperform other product lines [2][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets in 2024 is projected to be 5.093 billion yuan and 1.909 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3%, respectively [2] - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue from ordinary liquor, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% in Q4 2024 [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve to 35.3% in 2024, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.28 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [6][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5]. - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave-aged series, which is anticipated to continue its double-digit growth despite a general slowdown in the mid-to-low-end liquor market [2][4]. - The company is actively managing its channel pressures and ensuring healthy inventory levels, which is expected to enhance its market position in the future [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a net profit margin improvement to 35.3%, up by 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to decline by 5.0% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 is projected to see a 12.3% decrease in revenue [1][3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve due to the increasing share of the cave-aged series in its product mix [3][4]. Product and Market Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is expected to reach 5.713 billion yuan in 2024, showing a 13.8% increase, while ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.6% [2][5]. - The company’s performance in the domestic market is stronger than in the external market, with domestic revenue expected to grow by 12.8% compared to a mere 1.3% growth in external markets [2][3]. - The cave-aged series is expected to maintain its growth momentum, with specific products like Cave 9 and Cave 6 showing faster growth rates [2][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 7.4 billion yuan, 7.86 billion yuan, and 8.449 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 6.2%, and 7.5% [5][6]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.624 billion yuan, 2.840 billion yuan, and 3.218 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, 7.8%, and 9.8% [5][6]. - The company’s cash dividend rate for 2024 is projected at 46.4%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.1% for 2025 [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Yingjia Gongjiu has significantly declined, leading to a sharp drop in stock price, raising concerns among investors [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu reported revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company's growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, where it had consistently achieved over 20% growth [4]. - The original operating targets for 2024 were set at 8.064 billion yuan in revenue and 2.866 billion yuan in net profit [4]. Product Structure and Market Position - The product structure has continued to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor generating revenue of 5.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 6.5% to 1.29 billion yuan [4]. - The growth of mid-to-high-end liquor has noticeably slowed, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 27.6%, and 27.8% from 2021 to 2023 [4][7]. Expense Trends - Sales expenses increased by 14.18% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating intensified competition in the liquor industry [7]. Recent Quarterly Performance - In Q1 2025, Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue was 2.047 billion yuan, a decline of 12.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 829 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after five years [8]. Contract Liabilities - Contract liabilities have decreased, with a balance of 578 million yuan at the end of last year, down nearly 27%, and further declining to 457 million yuan by the end of March, a year-on-year decrease of about 11% [9]. Market Reaction - Multiple public funds have reduced their holdings in Yingjia Gongjiu, with notable reductions from Huatai-PineBridge and E Fund [9]. - As of April 29, the stock price was 44.7 yuan per share, down 8.38%, reaching a new low for the year, with a market capitalization of approximately 35.7 billion yuan [9].