迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）2025 年半年报点评 普酒持续承压 表端调整加速 2025 年 08 月 27 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 8 月 25 日发布 2025 年中报，25 年上半年公司累计实现营收 /归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 31.60/11.30/10.93 亿元，同比-16.89%/- 18.19%/-19.94%，其中单 25Q2 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 11.13/3.02/2.77 亿元，同比-24.13%/-35.22%/-40.24%。截至 25Q2 期末合同 负债 4.40 亿元，同比-4.69%，25Q1/Q2 期内分别环比减少 1.21/0.16 亿元， 业绩蓄水池持续缩水。用"单季度营收+Δ合同负债"核算"真实营收"，以抵消 公司因订单确认、发货节奏等因素带来的营收扰动，25Q2"真实营收"10.97 亿 元，同比-22.10%，基本匹配表端单季度营收增速。 分析师 王言海 执业证书： S0100521090002 邮箱： wangyanhai@mszq.com 分析师 孙冉 执业证书： S0100522110004 邮箱： sunran@mszq.com 相 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） 优于大市 2025Q2 收入及净利润降幅扩大，持续释放需求压力 2025Q2 收入、净利润降幅环比扩大，进一步释放需求压力。2025H1 公司实现营 业总收入 31.60 亿元/同比-16.9%，归母净利润 11.30 亿元/同比-18.2%；其中 25Q2 营业总收入 11.13 亿元/同比-24.1%，归母净利润 3.02 亿元/同比-35.2%。 2025Q2 安徽省内需求压力增加，预计洞藏系列销售表现好于整体。分产品看， 2025Q2 中高档白酒（洞藏、金银星）收入 8.17 亿元/同比-23.6%，普通白酒（百 年迎驾贡等）收入 2.10 亿元/同比-32.9%。第二季度受政策影响各消费场景需求 均下滑较多，公司主销品价位偏低，洞 6/洞 9 在 100-200 元价位仍有低速走量， 预计下滑幅度小于整体；洞 16 及以上预计销售承压。金银星、百年迎驾贡（省 外为主）在需求普降背景下延续 2025Q1 下滑趋势。分区域看，2025Q2 省内收入 7.30 亿元/同比-20.3%，省外收入 2.96 亿元/同比-36.4%；洞藏 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20][5] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5] - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave series products, which are expected to continue to show double-digit growth throughout the year, despite a general decline in demand for other products [2][4] - The company is actively managing its channel structure to ensure healthy inventory levels and is expected to maintain a strong market presence in the domestic market [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [1] - For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 74.00 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8%, and the net profit is projected to be 26.24 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 1.3% [5][6] Product Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary white liquor in 2024 is expected to be 5.713 billion yuan and 1.290 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.8% and -6.6% [2] - The cave series products are anticipated to maintain strong growth, particularly the Dong 9 and Dong 6 variants, which are expected to outperform other product lines [2][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets in 2024 is projected to be 5.093 billion yuan and 1.909 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3%, respectively [2] - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue from ordinary liquor, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% in Q4 2024 [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve to 35.3% in 2024, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.28 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [6][21]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） 优于大市 2024Q4+2025Q1 中低档酒降速调整，省内洞藏系列势能延续 2024 年收入稳健增长、净利率提升，2024Q4+2025Q1 调整降速。2024 年公司实 现收入 73.44 亿元/同比+8.5%，归母净利润 25.89 亿元/同比+13.4%；2024Q4 收 入 18.30 亿元/同比-5.0%，归母净利润 5.83 亿元/同比-4.9%；2025Q1 收入 20.47 亿元/同比-12.3%，归母净利润 8.29 亿元/同比-9.5%。2024Q4+2025Q1 看，收入 同比-9.0%，净利润同比-7.7%。 2024 年前高后低，洞藏系列增势延续。分产品看，2024 年中高档/普通白酒收入 57.13/12.90 亿元，同比+13.8%/-6.6%；其中中高档酒销量同比+9.3%，吨价同 比+4.1%；预计洞藏系列增势延续，全年仍增长双位数以上，洞 9、洞 6 增速更 快；结构升级推动酒类业务毛利率同比+2.73pcts。分区域看，2024 年省内/省 外市场收入 50.93/19.09 亿元，同比+12.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Yingjia Gongjiu has significantly declined, leading to a sharp drop in stock price, raising concerns among investors [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu reported revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company's growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, where it had consistently achieved over 20% growth [4]. - The original operating targets for 2024 were set at 8.064 billion yuan in revenue and 2.866 billion yuan in net profit [4]. Product Structure and Market Position - The product structure has continued to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor generating revenue of 5.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 6.5% to 1.29 billion yuan [4]. - The growth of mid-to-high-end liquor has noticeably slowed, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 27.6%, and 27.8% from 2021 to 2023 [4][7]. Expense Trends - Sales expenses increased by 14.18% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating intensified competition in the liquor industry [7]. Recent Quarterly Performance - In Q1 2025, Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue was 2.047 billion yuan, a decline of 12.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 829 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after five years [8]. Contract Liabilities - Contract liabilities have decreased, with a balance of 578 million yuan at the end of last year, down nearly 27%, and further declining to 457 million yuan by the end of March, a year-on-year decrease of about 11% [9]. Market Reaction - Multiple public funds have reduced their holdings in Yingjia Gongjiu, with notable reductions from Huatai-PineBridge and E Fund [9]. - As of April 29, the stock price was 44.7 yuan per share, down 8.38%, reaching a new low for the year, with a market capitalization of approximately 35.7 billion yuan [9].