Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods reported a total revenue of 4.501 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 5.38%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 168 million yuan, down 73.17% year-on-year [3]. - The company faces significant cost pressures, particularly from raw material costs, which have impacted profit margins. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 21.94%, and the net profit margin was 3.76%, both showing a notable decline compared to the previous year [5]. - Despite challenges, the company has launched five strategic new products in Q3, aiming to tap into high-end markets and diversify its product offerings [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Qiaqia Foods achieved revenue of 1.749 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.91% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7900 yuan, down 72.58% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was attributed to a significant drop in sunflower seed sales, which have historically supported the company's revenue [3][4]. - The company has seen a shift in sales channels, with new channels like snack wholesale and membership stores gaining traction, contributing to a monthly sales figure of over 90 million yuan in September [5]. Product Development - The company is focusing on product upgrades and has introduced new product lines, including high-nutrition nut series and innovative flavors, which are still in the early stages of market penetration [4][5]. Profitability Forecast - Due to ongoing cost pressures and competitive challenges, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 459 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 45.94% [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food Co., Ltd. is undergoing transformation amidst industry adjustments and channel changes, focusing on new product launches and channel development to drive growth [1][8]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Qiaqia Food reported revenue of 4.5 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168 million yuan [1]. New Product Development - Qiaqia Food has launched several innovative product lines, including the "Qiaqia Mountain Wild Series Seeds" and "Qiaqia Ice Cream with Seed Kernels," showcasing strong market potential [3][4][10]. - The company emphasizes the importance of innovation, allowing for failures but not for a lack of innovation [3]. Market Response - The newly launched products, particularly the konjac series, have shown strong sales performance, with konjac products ranking second in sales on Qiaqia's Douyin flagship store [4][7]. - The company is responding to consumer interest by continuously introducing new konjac products [4]. Channel Expansion - Qiaqia Food is actively exploring new sales channels, including e-commerce and membership stores, to diversify its revenue streams [8][9]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 24.79% year-on-year increase in revenue from e-commerce channels, which accounted for 16.38% of total revenue [8]. Brand Recognition - Qiaqia Food's brand value has significantly increased, reaching 56.872 billion yuan, marking its third consecutive inclusion in the Asia Brand 500 list [13][15]. - The company has received multiple awards, including recognition as a "Foreigners' Favorite Chinese Brand" [15]. Strategic Initiatives - Qiaqia Food plans to establish an investment company focused on the leisure food industry, aiming to enhance financial returns and share risks with partners [12]. - The company is committed to optimizing its supply chain and cost management to improve operational efficiency [17].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced the selection of outstanding intelligent factories for 2025, with Qiaqia Food's "Nuts Customized Intelligent Factory" being the only winner in the nut industry and the sole representative from Anhui Province [1][3]. Group 1: Intelligent Factory Selection - The selection of outstanding intelligent factories is a key initiative for promoting digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in the manufacturing industry [3]. - The evaluation criteria for the selection include production intelligence, equipment management, data integration, lifecycle management, and supply chain collaboration, requiring companies to achieve industry-leading levels [3]. Group 2: Qiaqia Food's Achievements - Qiaqia Food has made significant investments in digitalization and intelligence, exceeding 1 billion yuan over the past five years, deploying advanced equipment and integrating various software systems to create a comprehensive digital management system [7]. - The company operates 11 large factories globally, including one in Thailand, and has established a 300,000 square meter industrial park with 36 automated production lines and a national-level R&D center [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Qiaqia Food aims to deepen its intelligent manufacturing and digital transformation, expand intelligent application scenarios, and promote collaborative innovation across the industry chain, viewing this recognition as a new starting point for future growth [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qiaqia Foods, is facing significant pressure on its financial performance, with a projected decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to rising raw material costs and increased competition in the market [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - Qiaqia Foods expects a net profit of 80 million to 97.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 71.05% to 76.25% [2][5]. - The company's first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit drop of 67.88% and a revenue decline of 13.76% [2]. - This projected decline marks the largest mid-year profit drop since the company went public in 2011 [6]. Cost Pressures - The increase in raw material costs, particularly for sunflower seeds and nuts, has significantly impacted the company's gross margin [6][7]. - Factors contributing to rising costs include adverse weather conditions affecting sunflower seed quality and price increases in nut procurement due to drought and tariffs [6][8]. - The company has previously raised prices on sunflower seed products but has become cautious about further price increases due to intense market competition and consumer price sensitivity [8]. New Product Development and Market Strategy - Qiaqia Foods is attempting to diversify its product offerings by exploring new categories such as peanut products and ice cream, while also expanding into overseas markets [9][10]. - The company has launched ice cream products that combine sunflower seeds, indicating a strategy to innovate and attract consumer interest [10]. - Despite these efforts, the market response has been lukewarm, and the company faces challenges in effectively leveraging its existing distribution channels for new products [10][11]. Channel Expansion - The company has reported significant growth in sales through membership channels like Sam's Club, with a projected sales figure of around 200 million yuan in 2024 [11]. - However, recent issues with product selection at Sam's Club have raised concerns about the effectiveness of this channel strategy, as consumer dissatisfaction could impact brand perception [11]. - Analysts suggest that while Qiaqia Foods is innovating in product flavors, it needs to enhance its promotional strategies and deepen partnerships with retail channels to drive growth [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit to 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from distribution and other channels was 5.67 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, while direct sales (including bulk snacks, e-commerce, and key accounts) reached 1.46 billion yuan, up 38.3% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 28.8% and 19.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percentage points for 2024 but a decrease of 11.0 percentage points for Q1 2025 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 11.9% and 4.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points for 2024 but a decrease of 8.3 percentage points for Q1 2025 [5]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 13, and 12 [6][7]. Company Overview - Qiaqia Foods Co., Ltd. primarily produces nut snacks and baked leisure foods, with key products including Qiaqia red bag melon seeds and various nut mixes [8]. - In 2023, the company was recognized as one of the "Top 500 Asian Brands" with a brand value of 46.868 billion yuan [8]. Market Position - The company has expanded its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, and is actively developing the Southeast Asian market [4]. - The company’s sales in the Eastern region and e-commerce channels have shown higher growth rates compared to overall company performance, indicating a strong market position [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 28.8%, with a significant drop to 19.5% in Q1 2025, influenced by rising raw material costs and competitive pressures in the nut market [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 7.13 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.79% compared to the previous year [7]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 11.9%, while for Q1 2025, it is expected to drop to 4.9% [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Qiaqia Foods has been expanding its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, with a focus on Southeast Asia and entry into the Costco channel in Canada [4]. - The company is actively managing its sales and administrative expenses in response to the revenue pressures experienced in Q1 2025 [5].