证券研究报告 古茗 (1364 HK) 港股通 营收利润双高增，拓品类强化成长动能 2025 年 8 月 27 日│中国香港 餐饮 古茗公布上半年业绩：1H25 GMV 141 亿元/yoy+34.4%，收入 56.63 亿元 /yoy+41.2%，归母净利润 16.25 亿元/yoy+121.5%，经调整核心利润（加回 分 红 预 扣 税 口 径 ） 11.36 亿 元 /yoy+49% ， 经 调 整 核 心 利 润 率 20.1%/yoy+1.0pct，受益于外卖补贴、产品推新加速和竞争格局优化，1H 公司经营表现靓丽，其中收入同比增速快于 GMV 增速主要系设备集采量提 升及部分核心品类 ToB 销售占比有所提高。截至 1H25 末，公司门店合计 11,179 家，步入万店时代。期内公司积极推进新品类（咖啡、早餐）落地， 同步加密门店版图，经营效率与规模扩张能力均实现改善。中长期看，公司 区域聚焦型扩张策略行稳致远，品牌"新鲜"定位已深入人心，高复购率支 撑下，若外卖补贴退坡，公司依然有望彰显较强的同店韧性。此外，当前仍 有 10+空白省份尚待开拓，扩张角度成长性充裕。维持"买入"评级。 GMV 增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qiaqia Foods, is facing significant pressure on its financial performance, with a projected decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to rising raw material costs and increased competition in the market [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - Qiaqia Foods expects a net profit of 80 million to 97.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 71.05% to 76.25% [2][5]. - The company's first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit drop of 67.88% and a revenue decline of 13.76% [2]. - This projected decline marks the largest mid-year profit drop since the company went public in 2011 [6]. Cost Pressures - The increase in raw material costs, particularly for sunflower seeds and nuts, has significantly impacted the company's gross margin [6][7]. - Factors contributing to rising costs include adverse weather conditions affecting sunflower seed quality and price increases in nut procurement due to drought and tariffs [6][8]. - The company has previously raised prices on sunflower seed products but has become cautious about further price increases due to intense market competition and consumer price sensitivity [8]. New Product Development and Market Strategy - Qiaqia Foods is attempting to diversify its product offerings by exploring new categories such as peanut products and ice cream, while also expanding into overseas markets [9][10]. - The company has launched ice cream products that combine sunflower seeds, indicating a strategy to innovate and attract consumer interest [10]. - Despite these efforts, the market response has been lukewarm, and the company faces challenges in effectively leveraging its existing distribution channels for new products [10][11]. Channel Expansion - The company has reported significant growth in sales through membership channels like Sam's Club, with a projected sales figure of around 200 million yuan in 2024 [11]. - However, recent issues with product selection at Sam's Club have raised concerns about the effectiveness of this channel strategy, as consumer dissatisfaction could impact brand perception [11]. - Analysts suggest that while Qiaqia Foods is innovating in product flavors, it needs to enhance its promotional strategies and deepen partnerships with retail channels to drive growth [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's profit exceeded expectations, with 2024 revenue reaching 16.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.05 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 247 million yuan, a significant 43% increase year-on-year [6] - The company has established a new appliance research institute to develop emerging product categories, with overseas revenue showing strong growth, particularly in small home appliances, while domestic sales faced challenges due to a sluggish market [6] - The gross profit margin decreased to 20.9% in 2024, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix adjustments, while expense ratios remained stable [6] - The company is expected to see continued growth in profitability, with forecasts for net profit of 1.17 billion yuan in 2025, 1.26 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.37 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.0%, 7.6%, and 8.6% respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 16.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.8%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 18.33 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% increase [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at 1.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 1.17 billion yuan, indicating an 11.0% increase [2] - Earnings per share for 2024 is projected at 1.29 yuan, increasing to 1.44 yuan in 2025 [2] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.9% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 [2] Market Data - As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 13.00 yuan, with a market capitalization of 10.51 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.3 and a dividend yield of 3.08% [3]