丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg2] 联想集团（00992.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨联想集团（00992.HK） [Table_Title] 龙头穿越周期，多项业务创历史新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 联想 FY2026Q3（对应日历年 2025Q4，下同）实现营收 222.04 亿美元，同比增长 18%；毛 利率 15.1%，同比下降 0.6pct；归母净利润 5.46 亿美元，同比下降 21%，主因一次性重组费 用、认股权证的非现金公允价值收益等非现金项目的影响；经调整净利润 5.89 亿美元，同比增 长 36%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 龙头穿越周期，多项业务创历史新高 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 联想 FY2026Q3（对应日历年 2025Q4，下同）实现营收 222.04 亿美元 ...

这是一个信号。过去20年，云计算行业遵循着一条不成文的摩尔定律：性能翻倍，价格减半。首席信息 官们已经习惯了云服务只会越来越便宜这件事。 作者 林一 2026年1月27日，可能会被载入云计算发展史。这一天，谷歌云官宣涨价，自2026年5月1日起，其核心 服务、CDN互联以及AI基础设施，价格全线上调。 这并非孤例。就在几天前，亚马逊AWS悄然上调了EC2机器学习容量块的价格，涨幅高达15%。 现在，这个惯例被彻底打破了。硅谷的云巨头们，正在从跑马圈地的扩张期，转向利润收割的成熟期。 对于全球数百万企业而言，这不仅意味着IT账单的暴涨，更意味着一次战略层面的痛苦重估。但在太平 洋的另一端，对于联想集团而言，这或许是今年最大的战略利好。 涨价打破了云服务价格锚点，将驱动企业IT架构向更均衡的混合模式演进，联想作为同时具备硬件制 造、云服务、解决方案能力的厂商，处于有利位置。短期可提升订单与收入，中长期有助于巩固在企业 级市场的战略地位。 当云端的空气变得稀薄且昂贵，地面上的生意重新变得性感起来。 廉价算力终结 为什么涨价？为什么是现在？ 云计算诞生以来，价格战是核心竞争策略。AWS、Azure和Google Cl ...

Core Insights - Alibaba's Qwen APP has surpassed 30 million monthly active users within 23 days of its public beta launch, marking a significant achievement in the AI application space [1] - The rise of Chinese AI models like Qwen and DeepSeek signifies a shift from being imitators to becoming industry leaders and rule-makers in the global AI landscape [1][2] - The 2025 State of AI Report recognizes China's AI ecosystem as a parallel competitor, highlighting its role in setting the pace for open-source AI and commercial deployment [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese AI models have significantly increased their global market share, with open-source models rising from 1.2% at the end of 2024 to nearly 30% by mid-2025 [4] - The demand for computing power has surged due to the growth of AI model vendors, leading to a historical low data center vacancy rate of 5.8% in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, with potential for further increases due to rapid customer demand outpacing server deployment [4] Group 2: Company Collaborations - Lenovo, as Alibaba's largest server supplier, has seen a 155% year-on-year increase in AI server revenue in Q2, continuing strong growth in Q3 [5] - Lenovo's collaboration with Alibaba and other AI model vendors has led to customized products that align with market demands, enhancing their competitive position [6][7] - The partnership strategy allows Lenovo to adapt to customer needs while strengthening cooperation with major clients like Alibaba [6] Group 3: Application and Performance - Chinese AI models are focusing on application-oriented development strategies, contrasting with competitors' emphasis on parameter size [8] - Alibaba's Qwen APP serves as an entry point for various applications, aiming to integrate AI technology across e-commerce, mapping, and local services [8] - Lenovo's AI products, including personal and enterprise intelligent systems, leverage Qwen and other models to enhance their market offerings [9][10] Group 4: Financial Performance - Lenovo's AI-related business revenue has increased to 30% of total revenue, reflecting a 13 percentage point year-on-year growth [11] - The enterprise intelligent system has surpassed one million weekly active users, generating over 1.8 billion yuan in revenue within six months [11] - The success of AI applications in various sectors, including personal, enterprise, and urban intelligence, underscores the strong return on AI investments by Chinese companies [11]

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a record revenue of 146.4 billion RMB for Q2 of the fiscal year 2025/26, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 25% to 3.66 billion RMB, indicating a faster growth rate compared to revenue [1] - The CEO emphasized the company's strategic clarity, operational excellence, and continuous innovation as key drivers behind the record performance [1] Revenue Breakdown - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated 108.1 billion RMB, a 12% increase, with PC market share surpassing 25% for the first time [1] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) achieved approximately 29.3 billion RMB in revenue, up 24%, with significant growth in AI infrastructure [1] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) reported nearly 20% revenue growth, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [1] AI Business Growth - AI-related revenue now accounts for 30% of total revenue, a 13 percentage point increase year-on-year, highlighting AI's role as a core growth driver [2] - Lenovo's AI PC market share in the Windows AI PC segment is 31.1%, reinforcing user recognition of Lenovo's AI terminal experience [2] - AI server revenue saw high double-digit growth, with liquid cooling technology revenue increasing by 154% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The CEO stated the company will leverage its unique "global resources, local delivery" model to navigate uncertainties and seize opportunities presented by hybrid AI [3]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group demonstrates strong resilience and strategic clarity in navigating complex environments, achieving significant revenue and profit growth driven by its AI initiatives [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter of FY 2025/26, Lenovo reported revenue of 146.4 billion RMB, a 15% year-over-year increase, marking a historical high for the quarter [2]. - Adjusted net profit rose by 25% to 3.66 billion RMB, indicating a robust operational performance [2]. AI Strategy and Market Position - The current AI wave is transitioning into a phase of "popularization and inclusivity," with a focus on localized inference and personalized user experiences [3]. - Lenovo's AI-related revenue now constitutes 30% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-over-year, highlighting AI's critical role in driving business growth [4]. Business Segments Performance - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) achieved revenue of 108.1 billion RMB, a 12% increase, with a PC market share exceeding 25% for the first time [4]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw revenue of approximately 29.3 billion RMB, a 24% increase, with significant growth in AI infrastructure revenue [4]. - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) experienced nearly 20% revenue growth, maintaining high profit margins for the 18th consecutive quarter [4]. Innovation in Personal and Enterprise Intelligence - Lenovo's AI PC market share stands at 31.1%, reinforcing its leadership in the AI terminal space [5]. - The company plans to launch a personal super intelligent device in January 2026, enhancing user interaction capabilities [5]. - In enterprise intelligence, Lenovo's AI infrastructure demand is surging, with AI server revenue showing high double-digit growth and a 154% increase in liquid cooling technology revenue [6]. Future Outlook - Lenovo aims to leverage its "global resources, local delivery" model to capitalize on the growth opportunities presented by AI over the next decade [7]. - The company is positioned for a new growth cycle driven by technology, improved structure, and higher quality offerings in both personal and enterprise intelligence [7].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported strong financial results for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26, with revenue and net profit exceeding market expectations, driven by significant growth in AI-related business [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter reached $20.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, surpassing previous records set during the pandemic [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit grew by 25% year-on-year to $512 million, outpacing revenue growth [1][2]. - For the first half of the fiscal year, total revenue reached a record $39.28 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with adjusted profit attributable to equity holders increasing by 24% to $901 million [1][2]. Business Segments - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) saw a 15% year-on-year revenue increase, with operating profit rising by 13% [3]. - The PC business achieved a record high in the second quarter, with a global market share increase of 1.8 percentage points to 25.6% [3]. - AI-related revenue now accounts for 30% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a successful transition from strategic planning to actual performance contribution [2][3]. Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) - AI server revenue experienced high double-digit growth, although the segment reported an operating loss of $118 million due to increased investments in AI capabilities and infrastructure transformation [5]. - The Neptune liquid cooling technology contributed significantly to revenue growth, achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth in the second quarter [5]. Services Solutions Group (SSG) - The SSG recorded a record revenue increase of 19% year-on-year, with operating profit margin rising to 22%, leading to a 28% increase in operating profit [5]. - Operations and project solutions services accounted for a historical high of 58.9% of total revenue in this segment [5]. Regional Performance - The Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) saw a 30% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by strong smartphone sales during promotional events [5]. - Despite geopolitical challenges, the Chinese market maintained double-digit growth, with a 24% year-on-year revenue increase attributed to the popularity of AI PCs and high-end product offerings [6]. Market Reaction - Following the positive earnings report, Lenovo's stock price rose over 2%, reaching HKD 9.88, with a total market capitalization of HKD 122.6 billion [7].

Core Insights - Infinidat has announced the expansion of its InfiniBox G4 storage array product line, introducing smaller models and upgrading existing products, coinciding with Lenovo's acquisition plans progressing smoothly, expected to finalize by the end of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Lenovo's acquisition of Infinidat has been on track since its announcement in January 2025, with the complementary nature of both companies' businesses highlighted as a key advantage [2] - Infinidat focuses on high-end enterprise storage solutions, while Lenovo has strengths in entry-level and mid-range storage, creating a strategic fit for both companies [2][3] - The acquisition aims to fill Lenovo's gap in high-end storage technology and enhance its data center infrastructure [2][5] Group 2: Product Innovations - The new InfiniBox G4 models have reduced size by 30%, from 14U to 11U, and introduced lower capacity versions with a 29% price reduction compared to previous models, while maintaining high-end enterprise attributes [3][4] - The G4 series features native support for S3 compatible object storage, simplifying deployment processes significantly [3] - Infinidat has upgraded the hybrid G4 storage array's hard drive configuration, increasing effective capacity to 33PB, nearly doubling the previous maximum of 17.2PB [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Industry partners have expressed strong support for the InfiniBox G4, noting its smaller size, better environmental adaptability, faster bandwidth, enhanced software capabilities, and lower pricing as key factors for expanding its application in various settings [4] - The acquisition is expected to significantly enhance Lenovo's product line and market competitiveness, particularly in the high-end SMB sector [5] - The collaboration is anticipated to deliver integrated solutions combining high-end storage, AI servers, and RAG data services, addressing the evolving needs of enterprises in the AI era [5]

Core Insights - Infinidat has announced an expansion of its InfiniBox G4 storage array product line, introducing smaller models and upgrading existing products, while Lenovo's acquisition of Infinidat is progressing smoothly and expected to complete by the end of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Infinidat's Product Development - The InfiniBox G4 product line update may be Infinidat's last major product move as an independent company [1] - The new InfiniBox G4 models have reduced size by 30% from 14U to 11U and introduced a low-capacity version with a 29% lower entry price compared to the 2024 small-size model, while maintaining high-end enterprise attributes such as 35 microseconds low latency and full network security features [3][4] - The G4 series now supports native S3-compatible object storage, simplifying deployment processes significantly [3] Group 2: Acquisition Details - Lenovo's acquisition of Infinidat is on track since its announcement in January 2025, with the complementary nature of both companies' businesses being a key highlight [2] - Infinidat's high-end storage capabilities will enhance Lenovo's product offerings, particularly in the high-end storage market where Lenovo previously lacked presence [3] - The acquisition will allow Infinidat's business to be integrated into Lenovo's Infrastructure Solutions Group, enhancing Lenovo's capabilities in the high-end market beyond SMB and mid-range storage [3] Group 3: Market Potential and Industry Impact - The effective capacity of the hybrid G4 storage array has increased to 33PB, nearly doubling from the previous maximum of 17.2PB [4] - Industry partners recognize the market potential of the InfiniBox G4, with its combination of smaller size, better environmental adaptability, faster bandwidth, stronger software capabilities, and lower price expected to drive adoption in various new scenarios [4][5] - The acquisition is anticipated to significantly enhance Lenovo's market competitiveness and expand its product line, providing a comprehensive storage and AI collaborative solution for enterprises [5]

Core Insights - Infinidat has announced the expansion of its InfiniBox G4 storage array product line, introducing smaller models and upgrading existing products, while Lenovo's acquisition of Infinidat is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Lenovo's acquisition of Infinidat, announced in January 2025, is on track, with the complementary nature of both companies' businesses being a key highlight [2] - Infinidat focuses on high-end enterprise storage solutions, while Lenovo has strengths in entry-level and mid-range storage, making the acquisition a strategic move to fill gaps in Lenovo's offerings [2][3] - The acquisition will allow Lenovo to enhance its product portfolio and provide comprehensive high-end storage support to its partners [3] Group 2: Product Innovations - The new InfiniBox G4 models have reduced their size by 30%, down to 11U, and introduced lower capacity versions with a 29% lower entry price compared to previous models, while maintaining high-end enterprise attributes [3][4] - The G4 series features native support for S3-compatible object storage, simplifying deployment processes significantly [3] - Infinidat has upgraded the hybrid G4 storage array's hard drive configuration, increasing effective capacity to 33PB, nearly doubling the previous maximum of 17.2PB [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Industry partners have recognized the potential of the InfiniBox G4, highlighting its smaller size, better environmental adaptability, faster bandwidth, and enhanced software capabilities [4] - The acquisition is expected to significantly enhance Lenovo's market competitiveness and expand its product line, particularly in the high-end small and medium-sized enterprise market [5] - The integration of Infinidat's technology with Lenovo's AI server capabilities is anticipated to create a comprehensive solution for enterprise storage and computing needs in the AI era [5]

Financial Performance - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of 498.5 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.5% and a net profit increase of 36% to 10.4 billion yuan [2] - The revenue from non-PC businesses increased by nearly 5 percentage points, reaching 47% of total revenue [2] - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) achieved double-digit revenue growth, with a 13% year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter [2] Market Position and Trends - Lenovo's PC business accounted for 23.7% of the market share, widening the gap with the second competitor by 3.6 percentage points [2] - AI PCs represented 16% of total notebook sales in the Chinese market, with IDC forecasting a 4% year-on-year growth in PC shipments for 2025, driven by AI PC demand [2] Infrastructure and Services Growth - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) generated 104.8 billion yuan in revenue, with a 63% year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of profitability [3] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) also saw double-digit revenue growth, with a nearly 20% increase in the fourth quarter and an operating profit margin exceeding 21% [3] Global Operations and Supply Chain - Lenovo has established an end-to-end global operational system, with over 30 manufacturing bases across 11 markets, enhancing its supply chain capabilities [4] - The company has adopted a "China + N" manufacturing strategy to leverage cost advantages while meeting local customer demands and mitigating high tariff barriers [4] Future Outlook - Lenovo's CEO expressed confidence in the potential for improved US-China trade relations, which could provide greater certainty for global businesses [4]