2025.11. 19 本文字数：4045，阅读时长大约7分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑娜 "之前做代理，每天都需要释放些好消息来刺激客户，但是现在不用了，客户变多，反而盘源比较紧 张。"李巍现任香港中原地产首席营业董事，在香港从事房地产工作已有近30年时间。 在历经了过去4年的调整后，香港楼市如今又重现热闹景象——众多新盘销售火爆，客户大手笔横扫 整层房源，租金回报率达到4厘，外国客户重回市场…… 成交数据表现亦十分亮眼。据中原地产数据，10月份一手成交突破1700宗，已连续第九个月企稳千 宗以上，追平2019年3月至11月的最长纪录；同时，全月录得至少64宗成交金额逾5000万元的大额 交易，创一年新高，涉及总金额逾68亿元。 买家重返香港楼市的背后，一方面是"撤辣"及一系列政策组合拳使得香港购房税负减弱，刺激需求释 放，另一方面是美联储降息周期下，带动香港房贷利率跟随下行，居民购房负担亦持续降低，同时租 金收益率的稳定回升也使得资产配置方向 再 发生变化。 业内认为，历经多轮周期的香港楼市，当前已经出现止跌回稳势头。摩根士丹利、花旗等国际大行均 认为，香港地产市场在2025年走出低谷后，将进一步复苏，进入 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a resurgence after a four-year adjustment period, with significant sales activity and a return of foreign buyers [1][2][3] - Recent government policies, including tax reductions and mortgage rate adjustments, have stimulated demand and improved buyer confidence [5][6][7] - The rental market is also showing strong performance, with rising rental yields attracting investors [10][11] Market Performance - In October, over 1,700 new property transactions were recorded, marking the ninth consecutive month of sales exceeding 1,000 units, matching the longest streak since 2019 [1] - High-value transactions have surged, with at least 64 sales exceeding 50 million HKD in October alone, totaling over 6.8 billion HKD [1] - The new property market has seen a total of 15,900 transactions by the end of October, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [3] Buyer Behavior - There is a notable trend of large buyers purchasing entire floors or multiple units, indicating strong demand from professional buyers [2][3] - The influx of mainland buyers is significant, with projections suggesting over 12,000 transactions from this group for the year, setting a new record [3] Government Policies - The Hong Kong government has implemented measures to reduce property transaction taxes, significantly lowering costs for local and mainland buyers [5][7] - Recent policy changes have also included adjustments to mortgage limits and investment immigration policies, further stimulating the market [6] Rental Market Dynamics - The rental yield in Hong Kong has stabilized around 4%, making property investment more attractive compared to traditional savings [10][11] - The rental market is experiencing increased demand due to a rise in non-local students and skilled professionals, pushing rental prices higher [9][10] Future Outlook - Analysts from major financial institutions predict a continued recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market, with expectations of a sustained upward trend in property prices post-2025 [1][11] - The combination of suppressed demand being released, favorable mortgage conditions, and rising rents is expected to support the market's recovery [11]

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the Hong Kong real estate market in the next six months may depend on the unemployment rate in Hong Kong, with indications of a market recovery observed recently [4][20]. Market Recovery Indicators - Real estate agents in Hong Kong report an increase in client activity and transactions, suggesting signs of recovery in the market [4][5]. - The CCL index from Centaline Property, which reflects Hong Kong property prices, has shown a recovery from a low of 135 points in May 2023 to 141 points currently [5][7]. - New home sales have increased significantly, with the third quarter of 2023 recording 5,530 transactions worth over 610 billion HKD, marking a 7.5% increase in volume and a 30.3% increase in sales value compared to the previous quarter [7]. Mainland Buyers' Influence - Mainland buyers have shown renewed interest in the Hong Kong property market, with nearly 1,000 billion HKD spent on properties in the first nine months of 2023 [7][9]. - In the third quarter, mainland buyers accounted for 38.7% of new home purchases, with a total expenditure of 500 billion HKD, nearing 70% of the half-year total [9][10]. - The trend indicates that over 80% of luxury properties sold in October were purchased by mainland buyers, highlighting their dominance in the high-end market [10][11]. Luxury Market Dynamics - The luxury property market is increasingly driven by younger mainland buyers, with many transactions occurring for properties priced over 50 million HKD [11][12]. - The "Tian Yu" project has been particularly popular among mainland buyers, with significant sales recorded in October [12][13]. - The shift in buyer demographics is attributed to local wealthy individuals being constrained by declining commercial property values, leading to a "blood transfusion" in the luxury market [15][16]. Economic Factors and Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the market is optimistic, with expectations of continued rental price increases and a favorable rental yield attracting investors [18]. - The stock market's performance has positively influenced the real estate market, with the Hang Seng Index reaching new highs [19]. - However, there remains a divergence of opinions regarding whether the market has truly bottomed out, with some analysts suggesting that the unemployment rate will be a critical factor in determining future market conditions [20].

Core Insights - New World Development reported a solid performance for the fiscal year 2025, achieving a contract sales target of HKD 26 billion and raising the sales target for fiscal year 2026 to HKD 27 billion [1][3] - The company successfully completed bank refinancing of HKD 88.2 billion, leading to a decrease in total and net debt, and a significant improvement in cash flow [1][4] - Core operating profit reached HKD 6 billion, indicating a stabilization of the company's financial condition [3][4] Financial Performance - Total debt and net debt decreased by HKD 5.7 billion and HKD 3.6 billion respectively compared to the previous year [4] - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) decreased by 15% year-on-year, while operating expenditures (OPEX) fell by 16% [4] - The average interest rate and total financing costs significantly declined due to interest rate cuts in the US and Hong Kong, contributing to lower financing costs [4] Market Performance - The core real estate business showed strong performance, with contract sales in Hong Kong and mainland China reaching HKD 26 billion, with HKD 11 billion from Hong Kong and RMB 14 billion from mainland sales [5][6] - Several projects, including "滶晨" in Hong Kong and "广粤观邸" in Guangzhou, achieved remarkable sales, with the latter generating RMB 2 billion on its opening day [6] - The K11 series malls in Hong Kong experienced record foot traffic, with a 20% year-on-year increase [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on its core business and has a robust pipeline of projects, with over 2,100 units expected to be available in fiscal year 2026 [8] - New World is actively collaborating with strategic partners to enhance development potential, including projects with 招商蛇口 and 华润置地 [8] - The company plans to leverage its land reserves in the Northern Metropolis area to accelerate value realization and improve cash flow [8] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the market recovery and aims to capitalize on the improving conditions to boost sales and enhance cash flow [9] - New World is committed to maintaining a balanced approach to growth while prioritizing debt reduction as a key objective for the year [9]

Core Insights - New World Development (00017) reported a solid performance for the fiscal year 2025, achieving a core operating profit of HKD 6 billion and setting a sales target of HKD 27 billion for fiscal year 2026 [1][2] Financial Performance - The company successfully completed bank refinancing of HKD 88.2 billion, extending the earliest loan maturity to June 30, 2028, which significantly improved liquidity [2] - Total debt and net debt both decreased during the reporting period, with capital expenditures (CAPEX) down 15% and operating expenditures (OPEX) down 16% year-on-year [2] - The average interest rate and total financing costs decreased due to interest rate cuts in the US and Hong Kong, contributing to a more favorable financial structure [2] Real Estate Business - The core real estate business performed strongly, achieving contract sales of HKD 26 billion, with HKD 11 billion from Hong Kong and RMB 14 billion from mainland China [3] - Notable projects included the "滶晨" project in Hong Kong, which became the top seller with over HKD 10.7 billion in sales, and the "广粤观邸" project in Guangzhou, which sold RMB 2 billion upon opening [3] Future Development Plans - The company has a robust land bank and plans to launch over 2,100 units in Hong Kong for fiscal year 2026, including projects in Kowloon City and West Kowloon [4] - Ongoing collaborations with partners like China Merchants Shekou and China Resources Land will yield additional residential units, enhancing the company's project pipeline [4] - New investment properties, including the second K11 in Guangzhou and upcoming projects in Shanghai and Hangzhou, are set to expand the company's portfolio [4]

Core Viewpoint - New World Development has reported a solid performance for the fiscal year 2025, achieving a core operating profit of HKD 6 billion and setting a sales target of HKD 27 billion for fiscal year 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial health and operational efficiency [1] Financial Performance - The company successfully completed bank refinancing of HKD 88.2 billion, extending the maturity of bank loans to June 30, 2028, which significantly enhances liquidity [2] - Average interest rates and total financing costs have decreased due to interest rate cuts in the US and Hong Kong, alongside a reduction in debt levels [2] - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) decreased by 15% year-on-year, while operating expenditures (OPEX) fell by 16%, reflecting improved operational efficiency [2] Real Estate Business - The core real estate business performed strongly, achieving contract sales of HKD 26 billion, with contributions of HKD 11 billion from Hong Kong and RMB 14 billion from mainland China [3] - Notable projects include the "滶晨" project in Hong Kong, which achieved sales of over HKD 10.7 billion, and the "广粤观邸" project in Guangzhou, which sold RMB 2 billion on opening day [3] Future Development Plans - The company has a robust land bank and plans to launch over 2,100 units in Hong Kong for fiscal year 2026, including projects in Kowloon City and West Kowloon [4] - Collaborative projects with partners such as China Merchants Shekou and China Resources Land are underway, aiming to provide thousands of residential units [4] - The investment property segment is also set for expansion, with new K11 projects opening in Guangzhou and Shanghai, contributing to future revenue growth [4]

Group 1 - New World Development Company Limited has reached a new bank financing and unified bank financing agreement covering approximately HKD 88.2 billion of existing unsecured financial debt [1] - The company's financial management strategy focuses on reducing liabilities and improving cash flow, while continuing to fulfill existing financial responsibilities [1] - The recovery of the real estate market in Hong Kong and mainland China, along with the growth in demand for high-end residential properties, has led to the successful launch of several "phenomenal" hot-selling projects [1] Group 2 - As of June 25, the company has achieved its contract sales target of HKD 26 billion for the fiscal year 2024/2025 [1] - In the mainland market, projects in Guangzhou and Shenyang have led sales, with Shenyang's project topping the residential sales chart in May [1] - In Hong Kong, the super luxury project "滶晨" has sold over 330 units at a maximum price of over HKD 538,000 per square meter, attracting both local and overseas buyers [2]