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如果电力是AI发展的瓶颈,中国是否在领先?
傅里叶的猫· 2025-10-03 15:07
AI服务器产业链,不只有被炒了好几波的PCB、光模块、液冷,也有其他好的题材,像我们近期发了很多次的Memory,和这篇文章要讲的电力/储能。 今天星球中放了美光, 海力士和三星的财务模型,有兴趣的读者可以星球查看。 根据谷歌数据中心一位工作人员的看法,现在获取 GPU 和 TPU 已非瓶颈所在,电力问题,已经成为了他们最大的瓶颈,包括可用电力不足、供电稳定 性差。 下面这个图前几天也发过,奥特曼讲到2033年OpenAI规划250GW,这比目前整个印度的耗电还要高,可以预见未来几年对电力的需求得有多大。 在前天SemiAnalysis的创始人Dylan的播客中,他也提到:过去40年电力基础设施建设严重不足(例如,新发电厂缺乏建设,仅有煤炭向天然气的过 渡),导致关键设备供应链中断(如vanova的气体反应机、三菱的变压器线圈供应受限和产能不足),加上劳动力短缺和监管障碍(如严格法规和许可 流程),共同造成电力供应能力薄弱;同时,AI数据中心的快速增长(如一吉瓦数据中心相当于费城的用电量)大幅增加了需求,使电网不堪重负,迫 使电网商(如Texas和PJM)实施限电措施(提前通知削减大型用户一半供电),以优先保 ...
美欧局势突变,美国50%关税清单暴增407项,3200亿美元商品受困!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 12:42
事实上,这波"扩容"早在今年8月就启动了,一下子把407个产品类别拉入征税名单,要求其中涉及的钢铝成分都要额外缴纳50%的关税。美国商务部负责工 业与安全事务的副部长杰弗里·凯斯勒解释称,这是为了防止企业绕开关税,帮助本土钢铝行业恢复元气。听起来似乎有理,但实际执行中却让企业一头雾 水。 德国议员贝恩德·朗格就提到,他在参观一家摩托车厂时,厂主无奈地表示,根本无法准确计算每辆摩托车里钢铝的用量,甚至连一颗小螺丝里含多少钢材 都说不清楚。美国的规定要求根据成分价值缴税,但企业无法精确测算,只能被迫按最高的50%税率申报,因为一旦少报,就可能面临高达200%的罚款风 险。 受影响最直接的当属欧盟钢铁行业。早在清单扩容之前,美国对钢铁征收的高额关税就已经让欧盟企业流失了大量订单,不少工厂不得不减产甚至停工。而 现在,更多下游产品被纳入范围,比如金属框架家具、摩托车零件等,这些产品看似与钢铁无关,但只要含钢铝成分就要缴税,直接推高了制造成本。 最近美国在贸易上的一系列操作,用"核爆"来形容一点也不夸张。原本50%的高额关税已经让全球产业链摇摇欲坠,眼下"钢铝衍生产品"清单又被疯狂扩 充。 范围之广令人咋舌:从能驱动电 ...
矿业巨头发力绿色转型,徐工获史上最大绿色矿山机械出口订单
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-27 12:15
本报(chinatimes.net.cn)记者陶炜 南京报道 矿业企业的绿色转型步伐,正在给电动工程机械带来巨额订单。 9月26日,全球第四大矿业巨头福德士河集团的执行董事长兼创始人安德鲁·福瑞斯特博士在联合国大会 上发表讲话时称,将在2030年实现其澳大利亚铁矿石陆地运营的真正零排放,并通过开发绿色能源技术 解决方案引领重工业实现脱碳。为达成这一目标,福德士河集团于当日在纽约宣布,已与比亚迪、隆基 绿能、徐工集团以及远景能源达成合作。 福德士河集团并不是唯一有转型打算的矿业巨头。力拓、必和必拓、淡水河谷等矿业巨头均有绿色转型 的举措。 9月26日,安德鲁·福瑞斯特在联合国大会上宣布了福德士河集团的2030年完全脱碳目标,计划彻底消除 铁矿石运营中的化石燃料使用。作为全球第四大铁矿石生产商,福德士河正转型成为全球绿色技术、能 源及金属公司,通过消除化石燃料,旨在到2030年实现其澳大利亚铁矿石陆地运营的真正零排放,并通 过开发绿色能源技术解决方案引领重工业实现脱碳。 而为实现这一目标,福德士河集团于联合国大会期间在纽约公开宣布了一系列与全球领先的绿色能源创 新企业的合作。合作方包括全球新能源汽车与电池制造及研 ...
超3GWh!比亚迪、远景等签储能协议
行家说储能· 2025-09-26 09:30
| 《2025电力市场与数智化储能调研报告》 | 电力交易、技术融合、虚拟电厂与商业创新 | | --- | --- | | 出品方: 因 行家说储能 | 鸣谢: 以下参编单位的特别贡献(排名不分先后) | | UHES | HTHIUM | | Pilof 派诺科技 | | | 调研正式启动,欢迎参编 | 扫码了解 | 此前,行家说储能报道了远信储能获得5GWh储能项目订单( 点这里 )。 另外,Fortescue还计划部署 2-3GW 的风能和太阳能发电,以及大规模电池存储等。 ▋ 瑞浦兰钧:签3GWh储能供货协议 在9月中旬,瑞浦兰钧能源股份有限公司(以下简称"瑞浦兰钧")与全球电网级储能解决方案领导者Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.(以下简称"Energy Vault") 在美国签署了2026年供货协议。 近日,瑞浦兰钧、 Fortescue 宣布达成储能重要合作,其中瑞浦兰钧拿下3GWh储能系统供货协议; Fortescue则分别与远景能源、比亚迪、隆基绿能签署 协议。 ▋ Fortescue:携手比亚迪、远景、隆基绿能等 据美通社报道,在纽约举行的联合国大会期间,澳大利亚福德 ...
AI点燃新周期! 特朗普嗤之以鼻的可再生能源竟然涨势如虹
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 07:56
Group 1 - The stock market remains optimistic about the future of renewable energy despite the Trump administration's disinterest, driven by the belief that AI is ushering in a new cycle and that clean energy is the future of the global energy system [1][2] - The S&P Global Clean Energy Index has risen by 32% this year, led by strong performances from U.S. renewable energy giants Bloom Energy and First Solar, while popular clean energy ETFs have also shown significant gains [1] - By 2025, the U.S. is expected to see its largest solar installation capacity and battery storage capacity, contrasting with the S&P 500 Energy Sector Index, which has only increased by 5.5% this year [1] Group 2 - Fortescue Ltd. asserts that Trump's stance on climate change will not significantly suppress the long-term demand for clean electricity resources in the U.S., driven by AI's massive power needs and the pressure for emissions reduction [2][3] - The economic benefits of renewable energy are expected to outweigh political factors, as renewable energy has become more cost-effective than coal or natural gas in the U.S. [2][3] - Fortescue's CEO highlighted that the demand for clean energy will grow significantly due to cost pressures and the increasing scale of AI applications [3] Group 3 - The share of renewable energy in the global power mix has been expanding, with wind and solar systems in the U.S. nearly doubling their share over the past decade, surpassing 15% [7] - Since Trump's return to the presidency, significant delays and cancellations of renewable energy projects have occurred, amounting to nearly $42 billion [7] - Over 90% of new renewable power projects launched last year were more cost-effective than any new fossil fuel alternatives, with potential savings of up to $19 trillion in fuel costs by mid-century [7][4] Group 4 - The demand for electricity from AI data centers is expected to surge, with predictions indicating that global data center electricity demand will more than double by 2030, driven primarily by AI applications [9][10] - Major tech companies like Microsoft and Google are entering long-term power purchase agreements for renewable energy, indicating a strong demand for clean energy solutions [10][11] - UBS analysts note that the demand for utility-scale solar projects in the U.S. is gradually exceeding supply, providing significant growth potential for the solar industry [11]
多家外媒:中国绿色发展经验值得借鉴
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-09-17 08:10
Group 1 - The article emphasizes that Pakistan should leverage China's green energy transition as an opportunity to enhance its own renewable energy projects, particularly in wind and solar energy [1][2] - China's dominance in the clean energy sector is highlighted, with a report indicating that 84% of China's electricity demand growth in 2024 will be met by solar and wind energy, leading to a 2% reduction in fossil fuel usage [2][3] - The clean energy sector is projected to contribute nearly $2 trillion to China's economy in 2024, which is equivalent to the entire economic scale of Australia, and its growth rate is three times that of the overall economy [2][3] Group 2 - China has become the undisputed leader in green technology manufacturing and exports, particularly in electric vehicles, solar panels, and battery storage, driven by proactive national policies and significant public investment [3][4] - The report from Ember indicates that in the first half of 2025, China's cumulative wind power generation is expected to grow by approximately 16%, while solar power generation is projected to surge by nearly 43% [3][4] - The success of China's green technology revolution demonstrates a new industrial development model that allows for growth without sacrificing environmental quality, which could serve as a model for other countries like Vietnam [4][5]
美媒:中国正用绿色科技悄然拯救世界
Huan Qiu Wang Zi Xun· 2025-09-16 22:51
Core Viewpoint - China is playing a crucial role in mitigating climate change by making green energy more affordable through scale effects, particularly in the production of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products [1][2] Group 1: Green Energy Production - China's new energy vehicles account for over 70% of global production, showcasing its dominance in the electric vehicle market [1] - The country leads global photovoltaic production and has made significant advancements in wind turbines, industrial electrification technologies, and heat pumps [1] Group 2: Carbon Emission Reduction - The shift towards green energy in China is replacing coal in electricity generation and industrial heating, leading to a stabilization and slight reduction in carbon emissions over the past couple of years [1] - China is not only controlling its own carbon emissions but is also assisting other developing countries in achieving economic growth while avoiding significant carbon emissions [1] Group 3: Export of Green Technology - China is exporting substantial amounts of green technology to developing countries in regions such as Pakistan, Africa, and the Middle East [1] - As trade barriers are set by the US and Europe, an increasing number of Chinese electric vehicles are expected to flow into developing markets [1]
双碳研究 | 5000亿美元蒸发!清洁能源投资遭重挫
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 14:48
Core Insights - The article highlights a significant downturn in clean energy investments in the U.S., with a potential loss of $500 billion due to policy shifts under the Trump administration [4][9][10] Group 1: Policy Impact - A report from Rhodium Group indicates that the Trump administration's policy changes could reduce the U.S. decarbonization rate by more than 50% [5][6] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is projected to cut the scale of new clean power projects in the U.S. by 53% to 59% over the next decade [4][8] - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to repeal the 2009 "endangerment finding," which could lead to a sharp decline in solar and wind capacity and electric vehicle adoption [6][7] Group 2: Market Trends - Wind turbine orders are expected to drop by approximately 50% in the first half of 2025, with power purchase agreements (PPAs) also seeing a significant decline [4][10] - The solar industry may lose 44 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity by 2030, representing an 18% decrease due to the new policies [9][10] - The clean energy project development pipeline is experiencing nearly zero growth, with solar installations down by 23% in the first half of 2025 [10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The anticipated policy changes are expected to create new economic pressures on clean energy technology manufacturing, which is linked to nearly $150 billion in investments [9] - The uncertainty stemming from federal policy actions is making the business environment for the solar industry increasingly challenging [10]
英国能源智库发布报告:中国是推动引擎,正重塑世界能源格局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 10:41
Core Viewpoint - China's clean energy transition is fundamentally reshaping the global energy economy, providing new momentum for economic development worldwide [1][2]. Group 1: Progress in Clean Energy - China has made significant advancements in clean energy, with wind and solar power generation expected to grow by 25% in 2024 compared to the previous year [2]. - Chinese companies account for approximately 75% of global clean energy patent applications, a substantial increase from just 5% in 2000 [2]. - In the past year, wind and solar energy met 84% of the increase in electricity demand in China, indicating a reduction in fossil fuel usage despite rising energy needs [2][5]. Group 2: Cost Reduction and Global Impact - Technological advancements in China have led to a 60% to 90% decrease in the costs of clean energy technologies since 2010, facilitating energy transitions in other countries [4]. - Over 90% of the costs for newly installed wind and solar projects globally are now lower than the cheapest fossil fuel alternatives [4]. - China's investments in clean energy technologies are significantly lowering costs for key technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles, benefiting emerging markets [5][7]. Group 3: Global Supply and Market Dynamics - Chinese companies now supply 80% of the world's solar panels and 60% of wind turbines, placing American firms at a competitive disadvantage [7]. - The import of solar panels from China to Africa increased by 60% in the past year, with 20 African countries reaching record import levels [7]. - China's clean energy investments are creating new options for other countries, promoting a cleaner, more affordable, and safer energy future [7][8]. Group 4: Future Trends - The acceleration of renewable energy, grid deployment, and electrification in China is expected to peak fossil fuel usage domestically while reducing costs and accelerating the adoption of clean technologies in other countries [8].
大国崛起之能源竞争:美国向左,中国向右
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 10:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting energy strategies of China and the United States, with China leading in clean energy investments while the U.S. continues to rely on traditional fossil fuels [1][4][5] - China has installed more wind turbines and solar panels than the rest of the world combined, indicating a significant shift towards clean energy [1][6] - The competition between China and the U.S. in defining the future of energy is characterized by China's focus on renewable energy and the U.S.'s commitment to fossil fuels [1][3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. strategy under Trump emphasizes traditional energy sources, aiming to maintain energy independence through fossil fuels, while China seeks to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels by investing in renewable energy [5][11][12] - China holds over 700,000 clean energy patents, accounting for more than half of the global total, showcasing its technological leadership in the clean energy sector [7][26] - The article notes that the global energy landscape is shifting, with solar and wind energy expected to surpass coal and natural gas as the largest sources of electricity by 2035 [15][16] Group 3 - China's advancements in clean energy technology, such as rapid electric vehicle charging, are addressing key challenges in the sector [7][26] - The article discusses the historical context of energy development, noting that while the U.S. was a pioneer in clean energy technologies, it has since fallen behind due to its focus on fossil fuels [17][18][24] - The competitive landscape is described as a "disruption" where China is positioned to lead in low-carbon economies, while the U.S. remains entrenched in fossil fuel reliance [16][25][26]