Core Insights - The camping economy in China is experiencing significant growth, with the core market size expected to reach 2,483.2 billion yuan in 2023 and projected to grow to 4,879.8 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - The rise in camping activities has led to a surge in demand for ready-to-eat foods, pre-prepared dishes, and barbecue ingredients, with 53.8% of campers primarily engaging in barbecuing and picnicking [2][3] - Companies are innovating their product offerings to cater to the camping trend, including outdoor dining products and delivery services, with major retailers launching "camping packages" that include various ready-to-eat items [2][3] Industry Trends - The camping economy is expanding not only in terms of market size but also in the variety of food products available, with a notable increase in the development of pre-prepared meals and self-heating foods [2] - Businesses are enhancing consumer experiences by establishing physical locations at popular camping sites, creating a dual consumption model that combines online convenience with immersive offline experiences [3] - Local enterprises are leveraging regional characteristics to create competitive advantages, exemplified by unique dining experiences that integrate local culture and social activities [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading one-stop provider of home meal products, focusing on retail stores and aiming to expand its store count significantly by 2025 [9][15]. - The market for home meal products is substantial, with a size of approximately 400 billion yuan, and the company holds a 3% market share, leading the competition [9][60]. - The company has a strong supply chain and is expanding its product offerings beyond hot pot ingredients to include barbecue and Western cuisine [9][28]. - The company plans to open an additional 10,000 stores over the next five years, with a focus on rural markets where competition is limited [9][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading One-Stop Home Meal Provider - The company has transitioned to a consumer-focused retail model since 2017, achieving rapid store growth [17]. - It has established a strong brand presence and is recognized for its affordable pricing strategy [15]. 2. Business Model: Vertical Industry in a Large Market - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, with 84% of revenue coming from sales to franchisees [24]. - The market for home meal products is fragmented, with the company being the largest player in a competitive landscape [60]. 3. Future Potential: Revenue Growth and Store Expansion - The company has successfully improved same-store sales and plans to continue expanding its store network [9][18]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 72.83 billion yuan, 83.42 billion yuan, and 94.43 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.29 billion yuan, 4.00 billion yuan, and 4.95 billion yuan [1]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a recovery in single-store revenue and a positive outlook for store expansion, with a projected PE ratio decreasing from 24 to 16 over the forecast period [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company is a leading one-stop provider of home meal products, focusing on retail stores and aiming to expand its store count significantly by 2025 [15][18]. - The market for home meal products is substantial, with a size of approximately 400 billion yuan, and the company holds a 3% market share, leading the industry [9][60]. - The company has a strong supply chain and brand positioning, which enhances its competitive advantage in the fragmented market [9][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has transitioned to a consumer-focused retail model since 2017, rapidly expanding its store count to over 10,000 by the end of 2024 [17][18]. - It operates primarily through a franchise model, with a low investment requirement for franchisees, making it an attractive business opportunity [9][24]. 2. Business Model - The company’s business model leverages a large market with significant fragmentation, allowing it to capture a leading position through its extensive store network [58][60]. - The product offerings include a variety of meal solutions, with hot pot ingredients currently dominating the product mix [28][29]. 3. Future Growth Potential - The company plans to open an additional 10,000 stores over the next five years, focusing on rural markets where competition is limited [9][18]. - Single-store revenue recovery is expected to continue, supported by new product launches and marketing strategies [9][18]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 72.83 billion yuan, 83.42 billion yuan, and 94.43 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.29 billion yuan, 4.00 billion yuan, and 4.95 billion yuan [9][18]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 24, 20, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [9][18].

Core Insights - The "smoky economy" is evolving from version 1.0 to 2.0, driven by urbanization and upgraded consumer demand, transitioning from traditional street stalls to refined, scene-oriented community dining models [1] - The integration of community dining is creating new opportunities in the family dining sector, particularly for hot pot and barbecue, as it combines the necessity of home dining with trends like the "lazy economy" and "social economy" [1] Group 1: Community Dining Integration - Community dining integrates food retail, instant cooking, and social experiences, moving beyond traditional supply models [3] - The community dining model has led to a market size exceeding 200 billion yuan for family hot pot and barbecue ingredients in 2023, with community stores contributing over 60% of sales [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Revolution - The surge in hot pot and barbecue ingredients is fundamentally driven by supply chain efficiency upgrades, with centralized kitchens and cold chain distribution enhancing home dining experiences [4] - Consumers benefit from a cost-effective dining experience averaging 30-50 yuan per person, while enjoying quality comparable to restaurants [4] Group 3: Service Ecosystem Expansion - Leading brands are extending into service ecosystems by developing scene-specific products and hosting community events, transforming stores into local experience centers [5] - Innovative services, such as on-site cooking by chefs, can increase customer spending by 30% [5] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Community dining integration faces challenges such as regional taste differences, high spoilage rates of fresh products, and quality control issues with pre-prepared meals [6] - Future solutions may involve data-driven supply adjustments and deeper integration with community group buying and private traffic operations to create more agile business models [6] Group 5: Ecosystem Competition - The competition is shifting from product offerings to service ecosystems, emphasizing the need for balance between efficiency and customer engagement [7] Conclusion - The essence of the smoky economy 2.0 is leveraging community as a pivot to tap into the incremental market for family dining, with competition focusing on ingredient innovation and the reconstruction of local life service ecosystems [8]

引言：舌尖上的经济变革 近年来，随着消费升级与生活节奏的加快，家庭餐桌的"轻烹饪"需求持续升温。火锅、烧烤因其便捷性、社交属性及口味普适性，逐渐成为家庭聚餐、朋友 聚会的首选场景。这一趋势催生了一个新兴市场——火锅烧烤食材供应链。而当一线城市竞争趋于饱和时，下沉市场（三四线城市及县域）正成为这一赛道 的新蓝海，其背后不仅蕴藏商业机遇，更承载着激活社区经济、带动就业增收的"共富"潜力。 一、下沉市场崛起：需求端的三重驱动力 消费升级的"平权化" 县域居民可支配收入增长（2023年农村居民人均可支配收入同比增长7.6%），叠加电商与物流网络渗透，下沉市场对品质化、便捷化食材的需求快速释 放。传统农贸市场的散装冻品已难以满足年轻家庭对产品标准化、安全性的要求。 二、供应链重构：从产地到社区的共富链条 下沉市场的食材供应链正在经历"去中间化"变革： 上游直采：区域品牌通过对接农产品基地、中央工厂，将牛羊肉、菌菇等地域特色食材纳入供应链，既降低采购成本，又助力农产品上行。例如，某川渝火 锅食材品牌在云南建立菌菇直采基地，带动当地农户户均年增收超2万元。 冷链下沉：随着冷链物流技术的普及（如移动式冷库、社区前置仓），三四 ...

以下文章来源于明亮公司 ，作者主编24小时在线 明亮公司 . 追踪新商业、好公司，提供一手情报与领先认知。 作者： MD 出品：明亮公司 ！ 近日， 锅圈（ 02157.HK ） 公布了公司 2024年全年财报 ， IPO早知道消息显示 ， 24全年锅圈 实现收入64.70亿元，同比增长6.2%；毛利14.17亿元，同比增长4.9%， 毛利率为 21.9%； 核心经 其中值得一提的是锅圈在会员运营上的实践。锅圈截至 2023年 底，大约有 2700万会员， 在 2024年 底，这一数字大约为4133万。锅圈从去年开始改造自己的会员运营体系，而杨明超预计，今年第一 季度的会员增速会更快。 "（锅圈）将 通过会员 体系 来提到店、 提复购、提 客单价 。 "杨明超说，" 我 们的会员客单价远 超我们平均客单价，而在消费频次方面，高充值会员是低充值会员的两倍。 " 在拓店方面，锅圈 全年净增新乡镇门店 287家 ，而考虑到中国乡镇规模庞大 （ "48000个乡镇，下 面还有65万个行政村"），锅圈仍将进一步下沉加密，覆盖县乡市场 。 营利润为 3.11亿元，同比增长3.1%。 在渠道方面，截至 2024年末 ，锅圈 ...