2025年三月，市口的烧烤食材店挂起了转让牌子，门口还残留着春节时没卖完的冻鱼丸，街坊们小声议 论，生意怎么突然黄了，老板娘点着烟，手指颤抖，一句话没说，店里冷气像没关一样，幽幽地吹。 我问过他，为什么要选连锁，明明街上有那么多倒闭的例子，他说因为融资新闻看多了，品牌方说全国 八千家，融资三十亿，随便一搜都是"大数据"，觉得靠谱，心里就慌不起来，谁知转头就被割成韭菜。 有人说是市场变天，有人说是社区团购杀到家门口，实际情况远比这更乱，去年刚好有个朋友，凑了亲 戚朋友三十万，加盟了同样类型的食材连锁，签合同那天还请了两桌——"开张大吉"，结果半年后，账 本上全是红字，最后是靠卖掉那台冷柜才算扳回一口气。 2025年六月，禁酒令政策继续收紧，市中心餐馆晚饭时段都成了空城，老板们在后厨打牌，有人趁机把 原本售价二十多块的啤酒套餐降价到九块九，还是没人买单，堂食业务直接腰斩，外卖平台开始推预制 菜，算法挤压小店，单量越来越少。 我在现场碰到一家连锁门店的老板娘，问她后悔吗，她说"其实也想过不干了"，可设备押金没退，拆店 要赔违约金，干脆再撑几天，看看能不能转出去，生意难做，转让也难，连锁品牌方一句话不管，电话 也不接 ...

Core Insights - The independent hot pot and barbecue ingredient stores are facing significant challenges due to competition from fresh e-commerce and comprehensive supermarkets, leading to a wave of closures and financial losses for franchisees [1][10][19] - The reliance on a single product category makes it difficult for these stores to cover operational costs, especially given the seasonal nature of hot pot and barbecue consumption [3][15] - The market has shifted away from the "small but beautiful" business model, revealing that vertical retail lacks the necessary scale and competitive strength to survive against larger players [5][7][19] Industry Challenges - The current market has around 8,000 hot pot and barbecue ingredient stores, but many franchisees are struggling to break even or turn a profit [5][10] - The competition from comprehensive supermarkets like Yonghui and Hema, which offer a full range of products, poses a significant threat to standalone stores [10][19] - The rise of fresh e-commerce platforms such as Meituan and Pinduoduo, which provide quick delivery and lower prices, further exacerbates the challenges faced by independent stores [13][38] Franchisee Struggles - Many franchisees have invested substantial capital but are left with little recourse as the underlying business model is flawed, leading to reliance on luck to weather market fluctuations [21][31] - The franchise model has been exploited by some brands, focusing more on attracting investors and franchisees rather than building a sustainable consumer-facing business [23][25] - Reports indicate that a significant percentage of franchisees, such as those from Qian Dama, are operating at a loss, highlighting the unsustainable nature of the current franchise system [31][33] Market Dynamics - The shift towards online shopping has drastically reduced foot traffic to local stores, leading to a decline in survival rates for physical retail outlets [40][42] - The perception that certain retail formats are safe has been proven incorrect, as even community stores are struggling against the convenience of online alternatives [37][38] - The overall landscape for entrepreneurship in retail has become increasingly challenging, with many aspiring business owners facing harsh realities and financial losses [42][44]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 4.1, compared to the current price of HKD 3.21 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading community dining retail enterprise in China, transitioning from a hot pot ingredient supermarket to a national community central kitchen [6][15]. - The report highlights the company's core advantages, including a robust supply chain, a strong franchise network, and an adaptive operational mechanism that allows it to capture market trends effectively [7][31]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in the short term, with a long-term outlook that remains positive due to its supply chain advantages and extensive store network [8][10]. Financial Performance - Projected total revenue for 2024 is HKD 6.47 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach HKD 9.465 billion, with a growth rate of 13.2% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 231 million in 2024, increasing to HKD 615 million by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from HKD 0.08 in 2024 to HKD 0.22 in 2027, indicating a strong profitability outlook [2][10]. Business Model - The company operates a food ingredient vertical retail model, focusing on expanding product categories and increasing repurchase rates as core strategies [6][14]. - The franchise model allows for rapid expansion, with a target of adding 1,000 new stores in 2025, aiming for a total of 20,000 stores in the medium term [8][9]. - The company has a unique positioning in the market, leveraging its supply chain to offer competitive pricing while maintaining quality [31][32]. Future Outlook - Short-term focus includes improving store efficiency and expanding product offerings, while the medium-term goal is to accelerate store openings, particularly in rural markets [8][9]. - Long-term profitability is expected to improve through enhanced supply chain efficiencies and management capabilities, with a projected revenue growth rate of 14% for 2025 and 2026, and 13% for 2027 [10][9]. - The company is also exploring new growth avenues, including international expansion and innovative store formats [8][10].

Core Insights - The camping economy in China is experiencing significant growth, with the core market size expected to reach 2,483.2 billion yuan in 2023 and projected to grow to 4,879.8 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - The rise in camping activities has led to a surge in demand for ready-to-eat foods, pre-prepared dishes, and barbecue ingredients, with 53.8% of campers primarily engaging in barbecuing and picnicking [2][3] - Companies are innovating their product offerings to cater to the camping trend, including outdoor dining products and delivery services, with major retailers launching "camping packages" that include various ready-to-eat items [2][3] Industry Trends - The camping economy is expanding not only in terms of market size but also in the variety of food products available, with a notable increase in the development of pre-prepared meals and self-heating foods [2] - Businesses are enhancing consumer experiences by establishing physical locations at popular camping sites, creating a dual consumption model that combines online convenience with immersive offline experiences [3] - Local enterprises are leveraging regional characteristics to create competitive advantages, exemplified by unique dining experiences that integrate local culture and social activities [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading one-stop provider of home meal products, focusing on retail stores and aiming to expand its store count significantly by 2025 [9][15]. - The market for home meal products is substantial, with a size of approximately 400 billion yuan, and the company holds a 3% market share, leading the competition [9][60]. - The company has a strong supply chain and is expanding its product offerings beyond hot pot ingredients to include barbecue and Western cuisine [9][28]. - The company plans to open an additional 10,000 stores over the next five years, with a focus on rural markets where competition is limited [9][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading One-Stop Home Meal Provider - The company has transitioned to a consumer-focused retail model since 2017, achieving rapid store growth [17]. - It has established a strong brand presence and is recognized for its affordable pricing strategy [15]. 2. Business Model: Vertical Industry in a Large Market - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, with 84% of revenue coming from sales to franchisees [24]. - The market for home meal products is fragmented, with the company being the largest player in a competitive landscape [60]. 3. Future Potential: Revenue Growth and Store Expansion - The company has successfully improved same-store sales and plans to continue expanding its store network [9][18]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 72.83 billion yuan, 83.42 billion yuan, and 94.43 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.29 billion yuan, 4.00 billion yuan, and 4.95 billion yuan [1]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a recovery in single-store revenue and a positive outlook for store expansion, with a projected PE ratio decreasing from 24 to 16 over the forecast period [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company is a leading one-stop provider of home meal products, focusing on retail stores and aiming to expand its store count significantly by 2025 [15][18]. - The market for home meal products is substantial, with a size of approximately 400 billion yuan, and the company holds a 3% market share, leading the industry [9][60]. - The company has a strong supply chain and brand positioning, which enhances its competitive advantage in the fragmented market [9][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has transitioned to a consumer-focused retail model since 2017, rapidly expanding its store count to over 10,000 by the end of 2024 [17][18]. - It operates primarily through a franchise model, with a low investment requirement for franchisees, making it an attractive business opportunity [9][24]. 2. Business Model - The company’s business model leverages a large market with significant fragmentation, allowing it to capture a leading position through its extensive store network [58][60]. - The product offerings include a variety of meal solutions, with hot pot ingredients currently dominating the product mix [28][29]. 3. Future Growth Potential - The company plans to open an additional 10,000 stores over the next five years, focusing on rural markets where competition is limited [9][18]. - Single-store revenue recovery is expected to continue, supported by new product launches and marketing strategies [9][18]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 72.83 billion yuan, 83.42 billion yuan, and 94.43 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.29 billion yuan, 4.00 billion yuan, and 4.95 billion yuan [9][18]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 24, 20, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [9][18].