1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound and high - elasticity oscillation, with no clear trend in the short term, and the spread - widening strategy of RU - NR has basically ended [1][2][15]. - The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy, and the market will face a game of multiple long and short factors in the future, with all types of oils expected to oscillate [7]. - In the protein meal market, the US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly, and the domestic continuous meal is also expected to oscillate strongly, influenced by factors such as South American weather and Chinese procurement [8]. - The corn and starch market will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building [8][9]. - The pig market has an abundant supply of pigs, with prices running weakly in the short term and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the long term [11]. - The synthetic rubber market has a stable atmosphere and the disk continues to oscillate. Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to short at high prices [16][17]. - The cotton price has limited upward and downward space, with a short - term callback risk and a long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. - The sugar price is under increasing supply pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [18]. - The pulp market is mainly driven by funds, with the futures market showing a wide - range oscillation [19]. - The double - gum paper market is driven by limited tender support and will oscillate [20]. - The log market has a low valuation and will fluctuate at a low level [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils - **View**: The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy. - **Logic**: The US biodiesel policy expectations are fluctuating, the macro - environment is complex, and the industrial situation shows that the US soybean harvest is nearing completion, the Brazilian and Argentine soybean plantings are progressing, and the domestic and international supply and demand situations vary. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: In the South American weather market, US soybeans are stronger than the continuous meal. - **Logic**: Globally, the South American soybean planting is affected by La Nina, the US soybean planting area is expected to expand, and the export is under pressure. Domestically, the soybean import profit is deteriorating, and the supply pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and continuous meal will oscillate strongly [8]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The oscillation market continues, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building. - **Logic**: The supply side has a slow selling rhythm due to cold weather, and the demand side has concentrated demand in the Northeast. There is also import corn auction. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [8][9]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the prices are running weakly. - **Logic**: In the short term, the scale - farm's daily average slaughter volume may increase at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is being reduced. The demand is affected by temperature, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillation and weakening, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Maintain the range - bound pattern. - **Logic**: The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, the raw material price is firm but may fall, the demand has not changed significantly, and the RU has greater selling pressure than NR. - **Outlook**: Continue to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, with no trend in the short term [1][15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market atmosphere is stable, and the disk continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The BR's rise is affected by overseas device news. The butadiene supply is abundant, and the downstream buying is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support. - **Outlook**: Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, short at high prices [16][17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price has limited upward and downward space. - **Logic**: The previous bullish factors have been digested, the production expectation is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. - **Outlook**: Short - term callback risk, long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price continues to weaken. - **Logic**: The new sugar in the Northern Hemisphere is being squeezed, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the new season. - **Outlook**: Oscillation and weakening in the medium and long term [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The disk price has dropped significantly, which is still affected by the inflow and outflow of funds. - **Logic**: The futures drive the spot, the long - position funds are leaving, and there is a clear position - shifting phenomenon. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The tender support is limited, and the double - gum paper oscillates. - **Logic**: The paper mills want to maintain prices, the downstream demand is rigid, the tender price is low, and the cost support is general. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: The valuation is low, and the disk fluctuates at a low level. - **Logic**: The supply will increase in December and the long - term pressure exists. The demand is weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. - **Outlook**: Low - level oscillation [22][23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index is 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index is 2200.99, down 0.68%. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 20, 2025, the agricultural product index is 924.06, with a daily decline of 0.52%, a 5 - day decline of 1.46%, a 1 - month decline of 0.45%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.21% [183][185].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with most agricultural product prices showing downward or volatile trends [1]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are under pressure, while the prices of some products such as corn and cotton are in a range - bound state [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the prices rose first and then fell, and nearly half of the Brazilian soybeans have been planted. - **Logic**: Optimistic expectations for US soybean exports led to an increase in US soybeans and soybean oil on Monday. Domestically, the prices of oils and fats rose first and then fell yesterday, with soybean oil relatively strong. The US government shutdown, doubts about the Fed's interest - rate cut, and OPEC +'s decision to suspend production increase have affected the market. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the probability of a decrease in US soybean yield is high. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, with a planting progress of 47.1% as of November 1st. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is at a relatively high level, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, while Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil in China is expected to increase [8]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a weak shock state, while soybean oil will be in a shock state [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The crushing profit continues to recover, and the M1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. - **Logic**: CBOT soybeans are overbought, and soybean meal is in a high - level shock state, while the upward trend of rapeseed meal has slowed down. The US government's statement on China's soybean - purchasing plan has boosted the export expectation of US soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased. In November, Brazilian soybeans enter the critical growth period, and the impact of La Nina needs to be monitored. Domestically, the short - term crushing profit of imported soybeans has recovered, and the import expectation is high. In the medium term, the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US, South American weather, and the strength of the consumption peak season in the fourth quarter will determine the upward height of soybean meal. In the long term, there is no supply gap for soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, while rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will be in a shock state. The soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held, and put options should be held [9]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, and downstream rigid demand provides support. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. In the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, the circulation of grain sources has slowed down, and the supply pressure has been relieved. At the same time, the increase in external flow, transportation bottlenecks, and regional shortages in the sales area have supported the price. However, considering the expected high yield in the Northeast and the fact that the grain in some areas has not been fully marketed, the spot price still faces pressure [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Corn will be in a shock state, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [10]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply for slaughter is abundant, and the price is weak. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the sentiment of secondary fattening. The large - scale pig farms have a fast slaughter rhythm. In the medium term, the national sow inventory was still at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased continuously from January to September. It is expected that the slaughter volume of pigs will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the sow inventory has started to decline, and the reduction of sows is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The price of pigs will be in a weak shock state. In the near - term, the price is weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread strategy [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The market sentiment is bearish, and the price continues to decline. - **Logic**: The bearish sentiment in the financial market has led to a continuous decline in the natural rubber price. The cancellation of RU warehouse receipts and the slow progress of new rubber registration have made the valuation of RU lower than that of NR. In November, the import pressure may be relatively large, which will put pressure on NR. The short - term RU - NR spread may have a corrective market. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no new macro - driving force, the rubber price may continue to adjust downward. However, due to the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season and the potential for speculation on RU warehouse receipts, the downward space is limited [3][12][13]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price will maintain a high - elasticity shock at the bottom. It is difficult to have a unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to widening the RU - NR spread in the short term [3][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The price of raw materials continues to decline, and the price hits a new low. - **Logic**: The continuous decline in the price of butadiene and the weak sentiment in the commodity market have led to a new low in the synthetic rubber price. The main reason is the rapid decline in the price of butadiene, which has weakened the bottom support of the market. The supply of butadiene is expected to be in excess in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may continue to decline [14]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material prices are under great pressure. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene is resolved, short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The short - term upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened, and a slight correction may occur. - **Logic**: The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the increase in the purchase price in southern Xinjiang since October has supported the cotton price. However, most of the positive factors have been priced in. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations has limited short - term impact on actual trade. Currently, it is the peak season for new cotton listing, and the increase in inventory and hedging activities will limit the upward space of cotton prices. However, the cost provides certain support [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract will be in a range - bound state. In the long term, the cotton price may rise due to the expected reduction of inventory in the 2025/2026 cotton year [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The general direction is to maintain a bearish operation. - **Logic**: In the international market, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. The market still expects an increase in Brazilian sugar production, and Thailand and India are also expected to have an increase in production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import control and the expectation of limited future imports have supported the domestic sugar price, as the southern sugar - producing areas enter the peak crushing season, the supply will increase, and the domestic sugar price also faces downward pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, the sugar price will be in a weak shock state. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The strong upward trend has paused, and the market has returned to a quiet state. - **Logic**: The recent upward trend of pulp has paused, and the spot trading has become quiet again. The previous increase was due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper. In the medium term, the previous negative factors in the pulp market have not been fully digested, and the positive factors in downstream demand can only bring short - term support. Fundamentally, the demand for softwood pulp is low, and there is export pressure from overseas to China. The hardwood pulp is in a state of over - supply. The futures price is approaching the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts also puts pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some positive factors, such as the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected improvement in the demand for cultural paper in November and December [18]. - **Outlook**: The pulp price will be in a shock state. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand, and the change in waste pulp may cause fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and watch [18]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - **View**: Double - glued paper is in a shock state. - **Logic**: The main contract of double - glued paper closed at 4266 yuan/ton yesterday, with a slight increase. The supply of paper is still in a serious over - supply situation, and the demand from the publishing tender has started, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the downstream consumption is still weak. Some paper mills are facing great production and sales pressure. Although some paper mills have announced a price increase plan in early November, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and most prices are stable at the end of the month. In the future, in November, paper mills may increase their quotes as planned, and the price of double - glued paper is expected to stabilize [19]. - **Outlook**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the unilateral strategy. Attention should be paid to the impact of new driving factors on market sentiment [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: Logs maintain a bottom - shock state. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of logs have continued to weaken this week, and the spot and futures prices have continued to decline. The recent concentrated arrival of logs at ports and the decline in the sales of laminated wood have put pressure on the spot price. The increase in the US dollar - based price two weeks ago has made it difficult for foreign quotes to be accepted. As New Zealand enters summer, the pressure of blue - stained logs on arrival will increase. After the peak season in the fourth quarter, logs may accumulate inventory again. However, the current valuation of logs is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited [22]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs are weak, and the spot price may decline. The market will be in a bottom - shock state in the near term [22]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data content provided for detailed summary. 3.3 Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: On November 4, 2025, the commodity index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial product index was 2213.57, down 1.07% [177]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 4, 2025, the agricultural product index was 923.28, down 0.41% today, down 0.57% in the past 5 days, down 1.97% in the past month, and down 3.29% since the beginning of the year [179].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Pigs**: Oscillating at a low level [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - **Protein Meal**: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - **Pigs**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - **Sugar**: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - **Pulp**: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - **Logs**: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Oils and Fats**: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - **Protein Meal**: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - **Pigs**: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Macro - environment, weather [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - **Sugar**: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - **Pulp**: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - **Logs**: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - **Oils and Fats**: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Protein Meal**: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - **Corn/Starch**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - **Pigs**: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - **Cotton**: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - **Sugar**: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Logs**: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [4] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [4] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [4] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [5] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [7] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [10] - **Cotton**: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Pulp**: Oscillating with an upward trend [13] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [15] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It points out that the prices of these products are affected by various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policies. In the short term, the prices of most products will continue to oscillate, and the long - term trends vary depending on the specific product's supply - demand situation and market expectations. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Product 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was strong. Pay attention to the performance at the technical resistance level. - **Logic**: Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, and the US dollar has strengthened. The price of crude oil has risen due to concerns about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The production of palm oil is in the increasing season, and the export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is high, and the import situation of domestic rapeseed remains uncertain. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the oil market may oscillate with a slight upward trend as market sentiment stabilizes [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market sentiment is bullish, and rapeseed meal leads the protein sector. - **Logic**: Sino - US negotiations have not made substantial progress. The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest. The short - term supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be short. The consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - month contracts will mainly fluctuate within a range, while the far - month contracts will strengthen [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Oscillating within a range, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The supply of old - crop corn is expected to tighten in July - August, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The production of new - crop corn is normal, and the supply from abroad is abundant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price may rebound due to the reduction of old - crop inventory. After the new - crop corn is listed, the price is expected to decline [4]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **View**: At the end of the month, the price movement slows down, and the hog price oscillates within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the short term, large - scale farms are actively selling hogs, but small - scale farmers still have the intention to fatten. In the medium term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, policies are expected to drive capacity reduction. The terminal consumption demand is limited, and the inventory pressure is high. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The near - month market is still affected by over - capacity, while the long - term market is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction policies [5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: After the macro - event is settled, short - term observation is still needed. - **Logic**: The market sentiment was affected by the Politburo meeting. The supply of raw materials is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will follow the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [7]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The fundamental variables are limited, and the market oscillates with a slight downward trend. - **Logic**: The BR market oscillated weakly yesterday due to a slight cooling of market sentiment and a decline in raw material prices. The fundamentals of raw material butadiene have not changed significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in the short term. - **Outlook**: It will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in equipment operation [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The monthly price difference is decreasing. Pay attention to the change in the outflow speed of warehouse receipts. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season. The current demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The 09 contract's upward momentum has weakened, and the 1 - month contract may rise in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price has declined. Pay attention to the supply pressure. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production ratio is expected to remain high, and India's sugar production is expected to increase. The domestic sales progress is fast, but the import volume has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The Politburo meeting provided insufficient bullish factors, and the pulp price may continue to decline in the short term. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp fell yesterday due to a weakening of the commodity trading atmosphere. The current supply of pulp is excessive, and the demand is expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year. The industry has a ceiling expectation for price increases. - **Outlook**: In the near term, the fluctuation will mainly follow the macro - environment, and the pulp futures price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the market has followed the decline. - **Logic**: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment cooled down, and the log market oscillated weakly. The supply and demand of the log market are both weak. The supply from New Zealand has slowed down, and the demand lacks obvious growth points. - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the quantity of effective delivery products of the 09 contract and fluctuations caused by the change of peak and off - peak seasons [15]. 3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Pulp**: In the short term, remain on the sidelines. For arbitrage, conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread and a spot - futures positive spread [13]. - **Protein Meal**: Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on increased volatility [4]. - **Hogs**: Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [5]. - **Logs**: For speculators, remain on the sidelines. For industrial players, participate in hedging according to their own costs [16].