1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Pigs**: Oscillating at a low level [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - **Protein Meal**: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - **Pigs**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - **Sugar**: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - **Pulp**: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - **Logs**: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Oils and Fats**: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - **Protein Meal**: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - **Pigs**: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Macro - environment, weather [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - **Sugar**: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - **Pulp**: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - **Logs**: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - **Oils and Fats**: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Protein Meal**: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - **Corn/Starch**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - **Pigs**: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - **Cotton**: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - **Sugar**: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Logs**: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [4] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [4] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [4] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [5] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [7] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [10] - **Cotton**: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Pulp**: Oscillating with an upward trend [13] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [15] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It points out that the prices of these products are affected by various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policies. In the short term, the prices of most products will continue to oscillate, and the long - term trends vary depending on the specific product's supply - demand situation and market expectations. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Product 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was strong. Pay attention to the performance at the technical resistance level. - **Logic**: Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, and the US dollar has strengthened. The price of crude oil has risen due to concerns about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The production of palm oil is in the increasing season, and the export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is high, and the import situation of domestic rapeseed remains uncertain. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the oil market may oscillate with a slight upward trend as market sentiment stabilizes [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market sentiment is bullish, and rapeseed meal leads the protein sector. - **Logic**: Sino - US negotiations have not made substantial progress. The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest. The short - term supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be short. The consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - month contracts will mainly fluctuate within a range, while the far - month contracts will strengthen [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Oscillating within a range, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The supply of old - crop corn is expected to tighten in July - August, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The production of new - crop corn is normal, and the supply from abroad is abundant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price may rebound due to the reduction of old - crop inventory. After the new - crop corn is listed, the price is expected to decline [4]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **View**: At the end of the month, the price movement slows down, and the hog price oscillates within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the short term, large - scale farms are actively selling hogs, but small - scale farmers still have the intention to fatten. In the medium term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, policies are expected to drive capacity reduction. The terminal consumption demand is limited, and the inventory pressure is high. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The near - month market is still affected by over - capacity, while the long - term market is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction policies [5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: After the macro - event is settled, short - term observation is still needed. - **Logic**: The market sentiment was affected by the Politburo meeting. The supply of raw materials is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will follow the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [7]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The fundamental variables are limited, and the market oscillates with a slight downward trend. - **Logic**: The BR market oscillated weakly yesterday due to a slight cooling of market sentiment and a decline in raw material prices. The fundamentals of raw material butadiene have not changed significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in the short term. - **Outlook**: It will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in equipment operation [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The monthly price difference is decreasing. Pay attention to the change in the outflow speed of warehouse receipts. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season. The current demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The 09 contract's upward momentum has weakened, and the 1 - month contract may rise in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price has declined. Pay attention to the supply pressure. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production ratio is expected to remain high, and India's sugar production is expected to increase. The domestic sales progress is fast, but the import volume has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The Politburo meeting provided insufficient bullish factors, and the pulp price may continue to decline in the short term. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp fell yesterday due to a weakening of the commodity trading atmosphere. The current supply of pulp is excessive, and the demand is expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year. The industry has a ceiling expectation for price increases. - **Outlook**: In the near term, the fluctuation will mainly follow the macro - environment, and the pulp futures price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the market has followed the decline. - **Logic**: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment cooled down, and the log market oscillated weakly. The supply and demand of the log market are both weak. The supply from New Zealand has slowed down, and the demand lacks obvious growth points. - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the quantity of effective delivery products of the 09 contract and fluctuations caused by the change of peak and off - peak seasons [15]. 3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Pulp**: In the short term, remain on the sidelines. For arbitrage, conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread and a spot - futures positive spread [13]. - **Protein Meal**: Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on increased volatility [4]. - **Hogs**: Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [5]. - **Logs**: For speculators, remain on the sidelines. For industrial players, participate in hedging according to their own costs [16].