1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US released its August non - farm payroll data, with only 22,000 new jobs added, falling short of the previous value and expectations. The slowdown in the US labor market is becoming more evident. The weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, and Trump's "recalibration" of policies is beneficial to gold. In the long run, the US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals further, with a weak US dollar pattern continuing [6]. - Domestic: In August, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, while the CPI declined. The anti - involution and trade - in policies have shown initial results. In the short term, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and there is a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The market uses a dumbbell structure to handle market divergence, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend due to the decline in incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The hedging and defensive approach continues, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with concerns about the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence drive prices up. The short - term judgment is a sideways - up trend, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [8]. 3.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The impact of production restrictions weakens, and the price is in a low - level sideways trend. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The hot metal production decreases more than expected, and port inventories increase slightly. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: After the military parade production restrictions end, the first round of price cuts begins. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply drops significantly, and the spot price weakens. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession rises, putting pressure on copper prices. The short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The warehouse receipts increase again, and the price is under sideways pressure. The short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and the price continues to rise. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: The valuation repair is over, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot prices in South China and Shandong are at parity, and the futures price is in a downward trend below 3500. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. 3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is relatively bearish, and market sentiment is weak. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the price continues to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: As new grains are gradually put on the market, look for opportunities to short at high prices. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather [10].

Report Overview - The report provides daily analysis and insights on various commodities and financial markets, including overseas and domestic macroeconomics, stock indices, and futures contracts for commodities such as coal, sugar, rubber, and agricultural products. 1. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - Early in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined, but the August 1st non - farm payrolls data raised concerns about US employment and economic downturn. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues [1]. Domestic Macro - In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [1]. 2. Asset Views Domestic Assets - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [1]. Overseas Assets - Concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising. The long - term weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and be vigilant against volatility spikes [1]. 3. Stock Index Analysis A - share Market - On August 6th, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new closing high for the year, with a 0.45% increase to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.66% to 2358.95 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1734.1 billion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. CSI 300 Index - On August 6th, the CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4113.48, a环比 increase of 10.04 [2]. 4. Commodity Futures Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - On August 6th, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1696.6, a环比 increase of 46.7. The coking coal weighted index maintained an upward - trending oscillation, closing at 1194.6 yuan, a环比 increase of 79.7. Some mines in Linfen have been shut down for rectification, and the supply of coking coal is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. The fifth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the profitability of coke enterprises has improved [2][3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - International oil price decline and concerns about global demand weakness have pressured the US sugar market. Affected by the decline of US sugar and spot price adjustments, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined slightly on August 6th. As of July 31st, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales reached 1.9514 million tons, with a sales rate of 80.68% [5]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and adjusted on August 6th. From January to June 2025, Hainan's natural rubber output was 91,900 tons, a 6.0% decrease compared to 2024 [6]. Soybean Meal - On August 6th, the international CBOT soybean futures closed down. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is expected to expand, which will make the global soybean supply more abundant. The domestic soybean meal futures price showed a trend of rising and then falling. The domestic supply is sufficient, but there are concerns about future supply shortages, so the soybean meal may oscillate widely [7]. Live Pigs - On August 6th, live pig futures closed up. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the mid - term production capacity is still being released. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and reduced school procurement. The overall live pig market is in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Palm Oil - On August 6th, palm oil futures failed to continue the previous day's strength. From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% compared to the same period last month [8]. Shanghai Copper - Globally, LME copper inventories are high, while SHFE inventories are low. US copper inventory may flow back, which may suppress prices. Technically, Shanghai copper is in a state of oscillation [10]. Cotton - On the night of August 6th, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,660 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 90 lots compared to the previous day, and the cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with the expected harvest time one week earlier than usual [10]. Logs - On August 6th, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 829, with a low of 826, a high of 836, and a close of 832.5, with a reduction of 370 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in external quotes has driven up the domestic futures price [10][11]. Steel - On August 6th, the rb2510 contract closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3,451 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in coking coal futures has driven up steel prices. In the short term, steel prices may be strong, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [11]. Alumina - On August 6th, the ao2509 contract closed at 3,241 yuan/ton. The sentiment of "anti - involution" has cooled down. The supply of alumina has increased, and the market may maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 6th, the al2509 contract closed at 20,650 yuan/ton. The macro environment is relatively cold, and the supply of aluminum is increasing slightly while the demand is shrinking. The aluminum price may oscillate within a range [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: Market concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - dollar assets [5]. - Domestic: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, with a higher probability of incremental policy implementation in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Earlier in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff relaxation, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, etc. However, the July non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations and downward revisions in May and June, along with rising unemployment, increased market concerns about US economic decline and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and the August non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [5]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - dollar assets [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event resolution, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, the short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Factors to watch include unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals show a volatile upward trend. Key factors to watch are Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Key factors include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: After the meeting results are announced, attention should be paid to production restrictions. Key factors include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production slightly decreases, and market sentiment cools. Key factors include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has begun. Key factors include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment cools, and the futures price shows an obvious correction. Key factors include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is manageable, and attention should be paid to cost adjustments. Key factors include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment cools, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Key factors include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Glass**: The futures price drop has a negative feedback effect, and spot sales and production start to weaken. Key factors are spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight costs have risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. Key factors are soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations has put pressure on copper prices. Key factors include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish - than - expected Fed policies, slower - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [6]. - **Alumina**: There are still disruptions in Guinea's mines, and alumina prices have risen slightly. Key factors include slower - than - expected mine复产 and faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the inventory build - up level, and aluminum prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Zinc**: Supply and demand are in a state of surplus, and zinc prices are trending weakly in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [6]. - **Lead**: There is still support at the cost end, and lead prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include supply - side disruptions, slower battery exports, and unexpected macro and geopolitical changes. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are showing wide - range volatility. Key factors include unexpected changes in Indonesia's policies and supply - chain releases. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed higher. Key factors include Indonesia's policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Tin**: Supply remains tight, and tin prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment cools, and silicon prices are falling in a volatile manner. Key factors include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Key factors include OPEC + production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost end dominates the market rhythm. Key factors include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: After price drops, asphalt valuations are falling along with crude oil. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Key factors are crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are weakening along with crude oil. Key factors are crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term divergence between inland and port markets, and methanol is moving in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Key factors are export policy trends and elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the port arrival rhythm, and inventory build - up is expected in August. Key factors are the inventory build - up inflection point at ports and device recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PX**: Market sentiment cools, and prices are returning to fundamental - based pricing. Key factors are the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and processing fees are still under pressure. Key factors are the planned production cuts of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory build - up. Key factors are the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream yarn mills. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: The production cut scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. Key factor is the future operating conditions of bottle chips. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses the market, and it is moving in a short - term volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PP**: The anti - cut - throat - competition sentiment has changed, and PP is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support is weakening, and plastic is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment is improving, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality - based pricing, and the futures price is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and caustic soda is trending weakly. Key factors are market sentiment, operating rates, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment is warming up, and palm oil is leading the rise in oils and fats. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment remains weak. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Live Pigs**: Supply exceeds demand, and prices remain low. Key factors are farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are stabilizing along with commodities. Key factors are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is showing amplitude - based volatility. Key factor is significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Paper Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - situation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Key factors are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices and spreads are rebounding. Key factors are demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and sugar prices are under pressure. Key factor is imports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Logs**: Bullish sentiment is strong, and log positions are increasing and prices are rising. Key factors are shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the nomination of the new Fed Chair is affecting interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies may be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy games at the end of the month. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [6]. - For various asset classes, most are in a state of volatility, with some showing upward or downward trends based on different market logics such as policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Summary - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The new Fed Chair nomination is expected between October - December 2025, and US tariff policies may be finalized on August 1st and 12th [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export value increased 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an improvement in infrastructure investment. There are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies, and current stable - growth policies focus on using existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in Q4 [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities. Overseas, factors like tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. A long - term weak dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources such as gold and copper is advisable [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term implementation of fiscal policies [7]. - **Overseas**: Inflation expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations of "anti - involution" policies are hard to disprove, but there is a lack of incremental funds, resulting in a volatile market [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, with selling options dominating, and deteriorating option liquidity leads to a volatile market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen, and factors like unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing may affect the market, which is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust, and factors such as Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies should be monitored, with a volatile market expected [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, there is a game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, and factors like tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies should be watched, with a volatile market expected [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to have a volatile and relatively strong performance due to factors such as cost support, production, and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a volatile state, with some like zinc and nickel expected to have a downward - trending or weak - trending volatility due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and policy risks [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Due to OPEC+'s unexpected production increase, the energy and chemical sector is expected to be weakly volatile. Different products have different trends based on their supply - demand, cost, and other factors, such as crude oil expected to decline, and some products like ethylene glycol expected to rise [8]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Agricultural products show different trends. For example, palm oil leads the rise in oils, while corn and starch futures are expected to decline weakly, and most products are in a volatile state affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and trade policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The South Reform Opportunity Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (001181) reported a profit of 2.567 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 0.94% for the period, and a total fund size of 274 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [3][15]. Fund Performance - The fund's weighted average profit per share for the reporting period was 0.016 yuan [3]. - As of July 21, the fund's unit net value was 1.79 yuan [3]. - The fund's performance over various time frames includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 10.02%, ranking 377 out of 880 comparable funds [4]. - 6-month net value growth rate: 7.06%, ranking 478 out of 880 comparable funds [4]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 14.23%, ranking 480 out of 880 comparable funds [4]. - 3-year net value growth rate: 0.51%, ranking 262 out of 871 comparable funds [4]. Fund Management Insights - The fund manager expressed optimism for Q3, citing potential increases in market liquidity driven by global capital flows and domestic interest rate declines [4]. - Expectations for improved fundamentals include progress in US-China trade negotiations and accelerated infrastructure projects, which may positively impact corporate earnings [4]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.1727, ranking 273 out of 875 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 20.95%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown recorded at 16.86% in Q1 2020 [11]. - The average stock position over the past three years was 76.7%, compared to a peer average of 80.43% [14]. Top Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's top ten holdings include: - Midea Group - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) - Ninebot - Jerry Holdings - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank - Jiuli Special Materials - Shanghai Agricultural Bank - XCMG - Orient Cable - TCL Technology [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of breaking the "involution" on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Volatility jumps should be guarded against, and non - dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States on most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm payrolls in the US were better than expected again, with a significant rebound in government employment and a large decline in private - sector employment. The proportion of permanent unemployment increased, and the number of continued unemployment claims also continued to rise. Coupled with the slowdown in hourly wage growth, it indicates concerns in the job market. On July 4, the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly to 5.8% year - on - year, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of China's export volume in June increased by 1.0 percentage points compared with May. The recovery of exports to the US was the main boost, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US increased by 18.4 percentage points compared with May, possibly mainly benefiting from the "rush to import" in the US after the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs in May. In addition, exports to ASEAN remained at a high level, and the "rush to re - export" continued to play a role. In June 2025, the national consumer price rose 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices falling 0.3%, non - food prices rising 0.1%, consumer goods prices falling 0.2%, and service prices rising 0.5%. On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity." As early as July 2024, the Politburo meeting raised the issue of "involution" to the central level. Commodities oriented to domestic demand such as coking coal, rebar, and glass, as well as polysilicon, which has been falling since the beginning of the year, were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy during the week [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiated. Domestically, there are moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements the established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock market sentiment has rebounded, and the bond market maintains a volatile outlook. Stock index futures continue a moderate upward trend but are affected by insufficient incremental funds and are expected to fluctuate. Stock index options should be maintained with caution due to the continuous deterioration of option liquidity and are expected to fluctuate. Bond market sentiment has weakened for treasury bond futures, and they are affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Risk appetite has risen, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Sentiment has declined, and attention is paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention is paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Market sentiment leads, and attention is focused on the realization of positive factors. Steel products have continuous positive news and strong performance on the disk, affected by the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore has limited fundamental negatives, and macro sentiment boosts the ore price, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Coke has limited supply - demand contradictions, and the first round of price increases has started, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Coking coal has slow supply recovery and slow upstream de - stocking, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Silicon iron has little supply - demand contradiction and follows the sector's fluctuations, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement, and is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon has limited supply - demand drivers and follows the sector's operation, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Glass stimulates speculation on the disk, and inventory has slightly decreased, affected by spot production and sales, and is expected to fluctuate. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation, and inventory continues to accumulate, affected by soda ash inventory, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - The game of reciprocal tariffs vs. the expectation of domestic policy stimulus, non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper is affected by the possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper, and its price is under pressure, affected by supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations, and economic recession, and is expected to fluctuate. Alumina is affected by the rumor that the mining license incident has eased, and the alumina disk has declined, affected by ore production not recovering as expected, electrolytic aluminum production recovering more than expected, and extreme sector trends, and is expected to fluctuate. Aluminum has a large inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is under pressure to decline, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Zinc has a supply - demand surplus, and the zinc price fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply recovering more than expected, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Lead has a solid cost support, and the lead price fluctuates, affected by supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports, and is expected to fluctuate. Nickel has increased nickel ore exports from Philippine nickel enterprises, and the short - term nickel price fluctuates widely, affected by unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and supply not being released as expected in some links, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Stainless steel has a weakening nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel disk runs weakly, affected by Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Tin has a resilient supply - demand fundamental, and the tin price fluctuates, affected by the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Industrial silicon is affected by the continuous "anti - involution" sentiment, and the silicon price has rebounded, affected by unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations, and is expected to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate is affected by the speculation of supply disruptions under the "anti - involution" background, and the lithium carbonate position has increased and the price has risen, affected by demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil has supply pressure, and attention is paid to geopolitical disturbances, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations, and is expected to fluctuate. LPG's disk returns to trading the fundamental looseness, and the PG disk may fluctuate weakly, affected by cost - end progress such as crude oil and overseas propane, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Asphalt futures continue to fall, affected by unexpected demand, and are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil's discount continues to fall, and its weakness is strengthened, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Low - sulfur fuel oil's low - high sulfur spread continues to rebound, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Methanol has a decline in domestic operation against an increase in imports, and it fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Urea has a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand that is difficult to change, and it depends on exports to drive, affected by market transaction conditions, policy trends, and demand realization, and is expected to fluctuate. Ethylene glycol has a stable basis, and devices are restarting one after another, and it continues to fluctuate, affected by ethylene glycol inventory, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. PX is stable for the time being, and it fluctuates strongly, affected by crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities, and is expected to fluctuate. PTA has a weakening supply - demand situation and a strong cost - end PX, and it fluctuates, affected by polyester production, and is expected to fluctuate. Short - fiber has a falling basis, rising processing fees, and its absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations, affected by terminal textile and clothing exports, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Bottle chips start to be overhauled, and the bottle - chip processing fees reach the bottom, affected by the later start - up of bottle chips, and are expected to fluctuate. PP is driven by commodity sentiment and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Plastic has limited spot support and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Styrene is in a driving vacuum period and fluctuates, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. PVC has strong expectations and weak reality and fluctuates, affected by expectations, costs, and supply, and is expected to fluctuate. Caustic soda's spot price continues to rebound, and it is cautiously optimistic, affected by market sentiment, start - up, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - There may be La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the sentiment of going long on protein meal. Oils are affected by the good growth of US soybeans, and market sentiment has weakened, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and are expected to fluctuate. Protein meal, corn, and starch may have a La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the market sentiment of going long. Protein meal is affected by US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situations, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Corn is affected by demand falling short of expectations, macro - situations, and weather, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Rubber is supported by macro sentiment, and the rubber price runs, affected by producing - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes, and is expected to fluctuate. Synthetic rubber fluctuates on the disk, affected by large fluctuations in crude oil, and is expected to fluctuate. Pulp is dominated by macro factors and rises within the range, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Cotton's price fluctuates narrowly, affected by demand and output, and is expected to fluctuate. Sugar is affected by changes in imports, affected by abnormal weather, and is expected to fluctuate. Logs are in a dilemma and fluctuate, affected by shipment volume and dispatch volume, and are expected to fluctuate and decline [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with glass, coking coal, and pure benzene leading the gains [1]. - Overseas macro: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit. There are concerns in the US employment market. - Domestic macro: The economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has a significant impact on domestic commodities. - Asset view: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Long - term, the weak - dollar pattern persists, and strategic allocation to resources like gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US led to a small rebound in the US dollar index. The "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years. There are hidden concerns in the US employment market such as rising permanent unemployment and continued increase in continued jobless claims, along with slower wage growth [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has affected commodities like coking coal, rebar, glass, and polysilicon. The June manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activities improved [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. In the fourth quarter, there is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies. Overseas, pay attention to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. The long - term weak - dollar pattern persists, and strategic allocation to resources like gold is recommended [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected, and fiscal policies will be implemented as planned. - **Overseas**: The inflation - expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index approaches the 3500 mark, with insufficient incremental funds, and the short - term outlook is volatile. - **Stock Index Options**: The probability of volatility decline is high, with deteriorating option liquidity, and the short - term outlook is volatile. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market remains volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, as well as tariff policies and shipping - company pricing strategies, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - For steel products, the macro sentiment fluctuates, and the futures prices are volatile. Pay attention to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and molten - iron production. - For iron ore, the small - sample molten - iron production decreases, and the price fluctuates upward. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten - iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics. - For other products such as coke, coking coal, silicon ferroalloy, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, various factors affect their prices, and the short - term outlook is mainly volatile [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For most non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the prices are affected by various factors such as tariffs, supply, and demand. The short - term outlook is mainly volatile, with some showing a downward trend [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term downward - volatile outlook. - Other energy - chemical products such as LPG, asphalt, and high - sulfur fuel oil are affected by different factors, and their short - term outlooks vary from volatile to downward [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock, the prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, weather, and policies, and the short - term outlook is mainly volatile. Some products like rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with volatile trends [9].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy-driven logic strengthening. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, geopolitical risks, etc. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5] - The overseas stagflation trade has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. In the domestic market, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. In the overseas market, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and the stagflation trade has cooled down [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The June non - farm payrolls performance exceeded expectations, delaying the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are hidden concerns in the US employment market, and the bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [5] - **Domestic Macro**: The economic fundamentals have increased with resilience. The "anti - involution" policy has promoted the short - term rebound of commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. Domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year have been greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [5] - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets mainly have structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to gold and other resources should be maintained [5] 2. View Highlights - **Macro**: Domestic market may see moderate RRR and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented. Overseas, stagflation trade cools down. Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate. Key points to watch include micro - cap stock stampedes, dollar liquidity deterioration, option liquidity, and unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7] - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch are Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7] - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is expected to oscillate, and key points to watch are tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by domestic and foreign policies, the price fluctuations of the sector have increased. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch include special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron ore production and shipment, etc. [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals continue to oscillate. Copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to oscillate, while zinc and nickel may oscillate downward [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Due to OPEC+ over - production, energy and chemicals are expected to oscillate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. may fall or oscillate downward, while some products like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to oscillate upward [9] - **Agriculture**: Rubber stabilizes after a decline. Products such as grains, oils, and livestock are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch include weather, production and demand data, and market transactions [9]