证券研究报告|社会服务 [Table_Title] 现制饮品行业系列报告二：从"规模之战" 到"价值之锚" [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业深度报告[Table_ReportDate] 投资要点： 行业发展趋势：门店扩张步伐放缓，展望消费频次提升。新茶饮行业从 规模化扩张转向高质量发展，门店增速放缓但人均消费杯量较海外仍有 巨大提升空间，驱动因素从价格升级切换至消费频次提升。同质化竞争 加剧背景下，市场集中度持续提高，马太效应显现，拥有强大供应链管 控能力、深耕下沉市场并具备清晰品牌定位的头部企业更具竞争优势。 二级市场表现：股价走势分化，下沉市场占优。二级市场表现显著分化， 凸显"高端承压、下沉占优"的行业趋势。早期上市企业如奈雪的茶、 茶百道普遍遭遇破发，2025 年蜜雪集团上市后强势表现重振信心。业 绩对比表明，深耕下沉市场的蜜雪集团、古茗等展现出更优的费用控制 和盈利水平。当前二级市场情绪已从初期的狂热转向理性，更关注企业 真实的经营能力与盈利模式的可持续性。 企业价值增长：产品创新、供应链强化与海外拓展。行业迈入精细化运 营阶段，企业价值增长依靠三大核心驱动力。产品创新上，竞争 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IPO of "沪上阿姨" (Hushang Ayi) has generated significant interest, with a strong opening price and high subscription rates, indicating robust market demand for new tea beverage brands in Hong Kong [2][3]. Company Overview - "沪上阿姨" was founded by a couple, inspired by local tea shops, and has evolved from a small business to a significant player in the tea beverage market, with a focus on "五谷茶" (five-grain tea) and a variety of products [4][6]. - The company has expanded aggressively, particularly into lower-tier cities, and has seen rapid growth in store numbers and sales, reaching 7,789 stores by the end of 2023 [6][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported significant revenue growth from 2021 to 2023, with GMV increasing from 41.61 billion yuan to 97.32 billion yuan, and total revenue rising from 16.40 billion yuan to 33.48 billion yuan [6][8]. - However, the company faces challenges with declining average store GMV and profitability, with a net profit margin of only 10.1% [8][9]. Market Position - As of the end of 2023, "沪上阿姨" holds a market share of 4.6%, ranking fifth among tea beverage brands in China, behind "蜜雪冰城" (Mixue), "古茗" (Guming), "茶百道" (Chabaidao), and "霸王茶姬" (Chagee) [10]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many brands vying for market share in the mid-range segment, which is the most competitive area [11][13]. Expansion Strategy - The company has adopted a franchise model for rapid expansion, with a significant portion of its stores located in second-tier and below cities, accounting for 71.85% of its total stores [8][13]. - "沪上阿姨" is also exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the tea beverage market is expected to grow rapidly [14][15]. Challenges and Risks - The company has faced operational challenges, including high closure rates of franchise stores and issues with brand recognition and consumer loyalty [9][13]. - The overall tea beverage market is transitioning from growth to a more competitive environment, necessitating a focus on operational efficiency and capital management [16].

Core Viewpoint - The successful listing of "沪上阿姨" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks it as the fourth new tea beverage company to go public this year, reflecting strong investor interest and market potential in the tea beverage sector [1] Company Overview - "沪上阿姨" specializes in "freshly brewed five-grain tea" and opened at a price of 172.4 HKD per share, achieving a market capitalization of 18.075 billion HKD on its first trading day [1] - The company has over 9,000 stores, with 99.7% operated by franchisees, covering all four direct-controlled municipalities and over 300 cities in China [1][2] - The company plans to use the funds raised from its IPO for digital upgrades, product development, and supply chain enhancement, aiming to deepen its existing market presence and expand into more third-tier and below cities [1] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for "沪上阿姨" from 2022 to 2024 are 2.199 billion RMB, 3.348 billion RMB, and 3.285 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 154 million RMB, 416 million RMB, and 418 million RMB [1][4] - The company is one of the fastest-growing brands in the Chinese freshly brewed tea market, with significant revenue growth anticipated, particularly in lower-tier cities [1][4] Market Strategy - The company's expansion strategy focuses on northern markets, avoiding high competition areas in southern cities, and over 50% of its stores are located in third-tier and below cities, which have a population of nearly 900 million and significant growth potential [2] - "沪上阿姨" has adopted a multi-pronged approach to combat industry challenges, including launching a coffee brand "沪咖" to broaden its market reach [2][3] Industry Context - The tea beverage industry is experiencing intense competition, but the lower-tier cities remain a core growth area, with "沪上阿姨" leveraging its experience and franchise model to capture market share [3][4] - The listing of "沪上阿姨" is seen as a revitalizing force for the new tea beverage industry, providing valuable insights for other brands in terms of differentiation and innovation [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hu Shang Ayi (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd. is launching an IPO in Hong Kong, facing challenges such as declining revenue and profit, while heavily relying on a franchise model for its business expansion [2][3][9]. Group 1: IPO Details - The company plans to issue 2.4113 million shares at a price range of HKD 95.57 to HKD 113.12, with an expected listing date of May 8 [2][3]. - Two cornerstone investors, Yingfeng Holdings and Huabao Holdings, have subscribed for shares totaling approximately USD 921.55 million (around HKD 71.49 million) [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Hu Shang Ayi reported a revenue of RMB 32.85 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, and a net profit of RMB 3.29 billion, down 15.2% [9][10]. - The gross profit margin increased to 31.3% in 2024, but the net profit margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 10% [10]. - The company's total GMV reached RMB 107 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10%, although average single-store GMV fell by 12% to RMB 1.37 million [11]. Group 3: Business Model and Franchise Dependency - As of the end of 2024, 99.7% of Hu Shang Ayi's 9,176 stores were operated by franchisees, indicating a strong reliance on the franchise model [13][14]. - Revenue from franchise-related activities accounted for 96.5% of total income in 2024, highlighting the company's dependency on this model for growth [14][15]. Group 4: Cash Dividends and Founder Earnings - The company distributed significant cash dividends during its IPO period, with a total of RMB 2.19 billion in cash dividends declared, of which over 80% went to the founders, Dan Weijun and Zhou Rongrong [7][9]. Group 5: Food Safety Concerns - Recent reports have raised food safety issues, including the use of expired ingredients in products, which could impact the brand's reputation and consumer trust [16][20]. - Complaints regarding product quality and customer service have been prevalent, with numerous reports of unsatisfactory experiences from consumers [21][23].

4月28日，内地现制茶饮公司沪上阿姨（上海）实业股份有限公司（简称"沪上阿姨"）开启招 股。 根据公告，沪上阿姨拟全球发售241.134万股H股，其中香港发售股份24.114万股，国际发售股 份217.02万股，另有15%的超额配股权。发售价区间为95.57港元/股至113.12港元/股，每手30 股。 据招股书披露的时间表，沪上阿姨预计将于5月8日在港交所上市。届时，公司将成为继古 茗、蜜雪冰城、霸王茶姬后，今年第四家新茶饮上市公司。 此次IPO，沪上阿姨共引入2名基石投资者，包括盈峰集团旗下的盈峰控股和华宝股份旗下的 华置，合计认购921.55万美元股份（约合7149万港元）。 聚焦下沉市场 规模快速扩张 2013年，首家沪上阿姨门店在上海人民广场开业，开创"现煮五谷茶"，茶饮品牌"沪上阿姨"就 此诞生。 12年过去，沪上阿姨成为中国现制饮品行业头部企业之一。根据灼识咨询资料，以截至2023 年12月31日的门店总数计算，沪上阿姨在国内北方中价现制茶饮店品牌中排名第一，在国内 中价现制茶饮店品牌中排名第三，在国内现制茶饮店行业排名第四。 截至2024年末，沪上阿姨门店网络共有9176家门店。门店网络的扩张 ...