Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The new tea beverage market is transitioning from rapid growth to a more mature phase, with increasing competition leading to a shift from high-priced, heavily marketed products to a focus on frequency and sustainable operations. The performance of listed tea companies will increasingly depend on their strategic alignment with lower-tier markets [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in store expansion, with a shift towards enhancing consumer frequency. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.59% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a transition from scale expansion to high-quality development [2][11] - The focus for value growth in tea companies will be on product innovation, strengthening supply chains, and expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][53] Summary by Sections Industry Development Trends - The new tea beverage industry has seen rapid growth since 2015, with market size increasing from 1,878 billion yuan in 2018 to 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 22.47% [11] - The industry is shifting from price upgrades to frequency enhancements as the main growth driver, with a notable increase in market concentration due to intensified competition [1][15] - The average per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages in China is only 22 cups, compared to 323 cups in the US, indicating significant room for growth in consumption frequency [22] Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for new tea companies has shown significant divergence, with early entrants like Nayuki Tea and Cha Baidao facing stock price declines, while companies like Mixue Group have performed strongly post-IPO [2][28] - The IPO performance of new tea companies has been mixed, with some experiencing severe declines post-listing, highlighting the market's cautious sentiment towards high-end brands [28][30] Corporate Value Growth - Companies are focusing on product innovation by enhancing health attributes through functional ingredients, strengthening supply chains for cost efficiency, and exploring international markets for growth [3][53] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading companies like Mixue Group and Gu Ming leveraging their supply chain capabilities and market positioning to achieve superior profitability and cost control [49][50]

Core Insights - The new-style tea drinks, such as milk cap tea and fruit tea, have become a fresh window for young people to understand traditional tea culture, utilizing high-quality tea leaves, fresh milk, and natural ingredients [1] Industry Trends - The core appeal of new-style tea drinks lies in the pursuit of high-quality raw materials and innovative taste experiences, with a focus on preserving the authentic aroma and flavor of tea through precise brewing techniques [2] - The development of new-style tea drinks has evolved towards a "health experience," emphasizing low sugar, low calorie, and balanced nutrition in product development, catering to consumer health demands [3] Consumer Preferences - The primary consumer group for new-style tea drinks is young people aged 25 to 30, who value quality of life and are open to trying new flavors and seasonal limited editions, while also being health-conscious [5] - New-style tea drinks are expanding from urban core areas to broader regions, with significant growth in lower-tier cities, indicating a strong market penetration [5] Experience Factors - The success of new-style tea drinks revolves around various experiential factors, including innovative product offerings, strict quality control, cultural and spatial experiences, health-conscious options, and convenient ordering through digital platforms [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese ready-to-drink tea industry is transitioning from homogeneous competition to global expansion and structural upgrades, with a focus on health and cultural recognition in consumer demand [11] - The current state of the domestic tea beverage market is characterized by intense competition and saturation in lower-tier markets, leading to the conclusion that international expansion is essential for growth [2][3] - The overseas revenue growth of tea beverages is showing a rapid increase, indicating a potential second growth curve for tea companies [2] Group 2 - The Southeast Asian market is identified as a promising area for high-density replication of ready-to-drink tea, supported by a favorable climate and a large young population [5] - In 2023, the annual consumption of new tea beverages in Southeast Asia reached $3.66 billion, with Indonesia leading at $1.6 billion [5] - The coffee-drinking culture in Japan and South Korea presents a challenge for tea beverages, necessitating strategies to penetrate these markets [8] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting pricing strategies to align with the income levels of overseas consumers [9] - Companies are encouraged to enhance product innovation capabilities driven by health upgrades and consumer demand segmentation [11] - Establishing a global supply chain to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages [12] Group 4 - The article outlines a tiered international expansion strategy, suggesting high-density penetration in Southeast Asia, gradual market entry in Japan and South Korea, and a premium approach in the U.S. and Europe [14][15] - The need for consumer education and brand recognition in the U.S. and European markets is highlighted, as the current density of tea beverage stores is low compared to coffee shops [8]

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of tea culture from traditional tea houses to modern tea consumption reflects its enduring charm and vitality in contemporary society [1][10]. Traditional Tea Houses - The history of traditional tea houses in China dates back to the Tang Dynasty, flourishing during the Song Dynasty as essential social and commercial spaces [2][4]. - Traditional tea houses serve multiple functions, including socializing, entertainment, and information exchange, becoming vital community hubs [4][6]. - The architectural styles and interior decor of traditional tea houses are distinctive, with regional variations reflecting local cultural aesthetics [4][5]. Continuation of Traditional Tea Culture - Despite modern changes, traditional tea culture persists, with many tea houses adapting to contemporary consumer needs while maintaining their cultural essence [6][8]. - Activities such as tea ceremonies and cultural lectures are popular in traditional tea houses, promoting the understanding and appreciation of tea culture [8]. Modern Tea Consumption - Modern tea consumption trends show diversification and personalization, with new tea shops attracting younger consumers through stylish designs and innovative products [9][10]. - The integration of technology in modern tea consumption enhances convenience, with online ordering and smart devices improving the customer experience [9]. - Modern tea shops have become social hubs, where consumers share experiences on social media, turning tea drinking into a cultural and lifestyle phenomenon [9][10]. Significance and Future of Tea Culture - The transition from traditional tea houses to modern tea consumption is significant for preserving Chinese cultural heritage while providing diverse consumer experiences [10]. - The future of tea culture will likely see further innovation in product development, focusing on health and natural ingredients, alongside immersive consumer experiences [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the new tea beverage industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by consumer demand and market expansion strategies [4][10][11]. Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing rapid growth due to rising consumer spending power and a shift towards quality and value, with a focus on high-quality ingredients and innovative product offerings [4][6][21]. - The market is projected to reach a scale of 546 billion by 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and supply chain optimization as key strategies for sustainable growth in the industry [20][34]. Market Size and Growth Forecast - The current market size for ready-to-drink tea is estimated at 546 billion, with projections indicating it could exceed 600 billion by 2028 [9][10]. - The report forecasts that the retail tea market will reach 647 billion by 2028, contributing to a total market potential exceeding 6 trillion when combined with surrounding retail markets [11]. Market Expansion Potential - The report identifies significant growth opportunities in second-tier and lower-tier cities, where the density of tea beverage stores is still low, indicating a large untapped market [12][13]. - The international market, particularly in Southeast Asia, is highlighted as a key area for expansion, with these regions expected to contribute nearly 40% of global market growth from 2022 to 2028 [15][17]. Consumer Trends - Consumer preferences are shifting towards quality, personalization, and health-conscious options, with a growing demand for low-sugar and natural ingredient beverages [21][26]. - The report categorizes consumer segments, noting that health-conscious consumers and those in lower-tier markets represent significant growth potential for the industry [21][22]. Strategic Insights - Companies are encouraged to adopt targeted strategies for market penetration in lower-tier cities, focusing on enhancing store density and improving product quality to meet evolving consumer demands [13][34]. - Digitalization is identified as a critical enabler for operational efficiency and customer engagement, allowing brands to optimize supply chains and enhance consumer experiences [20][34]. Competitive Landscape - Leading brands like 喜茶 (Heytea) and 沪上阿姨 (Hushang Auntie) are noted for their innovative product strategies and strong market positioning, contributing to their competitive advantages in the industry [37][32]. - The establishment of industry-wide initiatives, such as the "New Tea Beverage Public Welfare Fund," reflects a commitment to social responsibility and community engagement among top brands [35][48].

喜茶暂停加盟申请。 去年秋天以来，喜茶三次以加盟商内部信的方式宣布战略调整。它曾是第一个降价的现制茶饮品 牌，去年第一个宣布退出价格战，这次它在内部信里说暂停加盟申请，也是行业首个。 喜茶品牌成立到第六年一直以全直营模式经营。公司自己选原材料、做茶、卖茶，手工做出近 30 元的奶盖茶。 直到消费者开始喝更便宜的茶，增长变难，喜茶 2022 年 11 月开放加盟。为此它提前降价、标准化 流程，门店数量从 2022 年底的 855 家增长至去年底的 4548 家，成了中国门店数量第六多的现制茶 饮品牌。 随着现制茶饮竞争加剧，热门区域门店加密、市场转入存量竞争。行业同店下滑、一些品牌的加盟 商转亏，去年门店总数净减少 1.6 万间。喜茶率先放下门店增长的目标，暂停才开始 2 年多的加 盟。 今年 1 月，喜茶 DP（白日梦）店在成都春熙路开张。DP 店自营，设计精美、面积更大，消费者 还能尝到常规店没有的饮品，但价格往往更高。上一家 DP 店 2018 年 10 月在深圳开业，一年多后 关闭，也是喜茶第一家 DP 店。喜茶在这次的内部信里说要 "聚焦用户和品牌"，DP 店回归或许是 新战略的开端。 比亚迪超 21 ...