证券研究报告|社会服务 [Table_Title] 现制饮品行业系列报告二：从"规模之战" 到"价值之锚" [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业深度报告[Table_ReportDate] 投资要点： 行业发展趋势：门店扩张步伐放缓，展望消费频次提升。新茶饮行业从 规模化扩张转向高质量发展，门店增速放缓但人均消费杯量较海外仍有 巨大提升空间，驱动因素从价格升级切换至消费频次提升。同质化竞争 加剧背景下，市场集中度持续提高，马太效应显现，拥有强大供应链管 控能力、深耕下沉市场并具备清晰品牌定位的头部企业更具竞争优势。 二级市场表现：股价走势分化，下沉市场占优。二级市场表现显著分化， 凸显"高端承压、下沉占优"的行业趋势。早期上市企业如奈雪的茶、 茶百道普遍遭遇破发，2025 年蜜雪集团上市后强势表现重振信心。业 绩对比表明，深耕下沉市场的蜜雪集团、古茗等展现出更优的费用控制 和盈利水平。当前二级市场情绪已从初期的狂热转向理性，更关注企业 真实的经营能力与盈利模式的可持续性。 企业价值增长：产品创新、供应链强化与海外拓展。行业迈入精细化运 营阶段，企业价值增长依靠三大核心驱动力。产品创新上，竞争 ...

Core Insights - The new-style tea drinks, such as milk cap tea and fruit tea, have become a fresh window for young people to understand traditional tea culture, utilizing high-quality tea leaves, fresh milk, and natural ingredients [1] Industry Trends - The core appeal of new-style tea drinks lies in the pursuit of high-quality raw materials and innovative taste experiences, with a focus on preserving the authentic aroma and flavor of tea through precise brewing techniques [2] - The development of new-style tea drinks has evolved towards a "health experience," emphasizing low sugar, low calorie, and balanced nutrition in product development, catering to consumer health demands [3] Consumer Preferences - The primary consumer group for new-style tea drinks is young people aged 25 to 30, who value quality of life and are open to trying new flavors and seasonal limited editions, while also being health-conscious [5] - New-style tea drinks are expanding from urban core areas to broader regions, with significant growth in lower-tier cities, indicating a strong market penetration [5] Experience Factors - The success of new-style tea drinks revolves around various experiential factors, including innovative product offerings, strict quality control, cultural and spatial experiences, health-conscious options, and convenient ordering through digital platforms [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese ready-to-drink tea industry is transitioning from homogeneous competition to global expansion and structural upgrades, with a focus on health and cultural recognition in consumer demand [11] - The current state of the domestic tea beverage market is characterized by intense competition and saturation in lower-tier markets, leading to the conclusion that international expansion is essential for growth [2][3] - The overseas revenue growth of tea beverages is showing a rapid increase, indicating a potential second growth curve for tea companies [2] Group 2 - The Southeast Asian market is identified as a promising area for high-density replication of ready-to-drink tea, supported by a favorable climate and a large young population [5] - In 2023, the annual consumption of new tea beverages in Southeast Asia reached $3.66 billion, with Indonesia leading at $1.6 billion [5] - The coffee-drinking culture in Japan and South Korea presents a challenge for tea beverages, necessitating strategies to penetrate these markets [8] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting pricing strategies to align with the income levels of overseas consumers [9] - Companies are encouraged to enhance product innovation capabilities driven by health upgrades and consumer demand segmentation [11] - Establishing a global supply chain to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages [12] Group 4 - The article outlines a tiered international expansion strategy, suggesting high-density penetration in Southeast Asia, gradual market entry in Japan and South Korea, and a premium approach in the U.S. and Europe [14][15] - The need for consumer education and brand recognition in the U.S. and European markets is highlighted, as the current density of tea beverage stores is low compared to coffee shops [8]

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of tea culture from traditional tea houses to modern tea consumption reflects its enduring charm and vitality in contemporary society [1][10]. Traditional Tea Houses - The history of traditional tea houses in China dates back to the Tang Dynasty, flourishing during the Song Dynasty as essential social and commercial spaces [2][4]. - Traditional tea houses serve multiple functions, including socializing, entertainment, and information exchange, becoming vital community hubs [4][6]. - The architectural styles and interior decor of traditional tea houses are distinctive, with regional variations reflecting local cultural aesthetics [4][5]. Continuation of Traditional Tea Culture - Despite modern changes, traditional tea culture persists, with many tea houses adapting to contemporary consumer needs while maintaining their cultural essence [6][8]. - Activities such as tea ceremonies and cultural lectures are popular in traditional tea houses, promoting the understanding and appreciation of tea culture [8]. Modern Tea Consumption - Modern tea consumption trends show diversification and personalization, with new tea shops attracting younger consumers through stylish designs and innovative products [9][10]. - The integration of technology in modern tea consumption enhances convenience, with online ordering and smart devices improving the customer experience [9]. - Modern tea shops have become social hubs, where consumers share experiences on social media, turning tea drinking into a cultural and lifestyle phenomenon [9][10]. Significance and Future of Tea Culture - The transition from traditional tea houses to modern tea consumption is significant for preserving Chinese cultural heritage while providing diverse consumer experiences [10]. - The future of tea culture will likely see further innovation in product development, focusing on health and natural ingredients, alongside immersive consumer experiences [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the new tea beverage industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by consumer demand and market expansion strategies [4][10][11]. Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing rapid growth due to rising consumer spending power and a shift towards quality and value, with a focus on high-quality ingredients and innovative product offerings [4][6][21]. - The market is projected to reach a scale of 546 billion by 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and supply chain optimization as key strategies for sustainable growth in the industry [20][34]. Market Size and Growth Forecast - The current market size for ready-to-drink tea is estimated at 546 billion, with projections indicating it could exceed 600 billion by 2028 [9][10]. - The report forecasts that the retail tea market will reach 647 billion by 2028, contributing to a total market potential exceeding 6 trillion when combined with surrounding retail markets [11]. Market Expansion Potential - The report identifies significant growth opportunities in second-tier and lower-tier cities, where the density of tea beverage stores is still low, indicating a large untapped market [12][13]. - The international market, particularly in Southeast Asia, is highlighted as a key area for expansion, with these regions expected to contribute nearly 40% of global market growth from 2022 to 2028 [15][17]. Consumer Trends - Consumer preferences are shifting towards quality, personalization, and health-conscious options, with a growing demand for low-sugar and natural ingredient beverages [21][26]. - The report categorizes consumer segments, noting that health-conscious consumers and those in lower-tier markets represent significant growth potential for the industry [21][22]. Strategic Insights - Companies are encouraged to adopt targeted strategies for market penetration in lower-tier cities, focusing on enhancing store density and improving product quality to meet evolving consumer demands [13][34]. - Digitalization is identified as a critical enabler for operational efficiency and customer engagement, allowing brands to optimize supply chains and enhance consumer experiences [20][34]. Competitive Landscape - Leading brands like 喜茶 (Heytea) and 沪上阿姨 (Hushang Auntie) are noted for their innovative product strategies and strong market positioning, contributing to their competitive advantages in the industry [37][32]. - The establishment of industry-wide initiatives, such as the "New Tea Beverage Public Welfare Fund," reflects a commitment to social responsibility and community engagement among top brands [35][48].

喜茶暂停加盟申请。 去年秋天以来，喜茶三次以加盟商内部信的方式宣布战略调整。它曾是第一个降价的现制茶饮品 牌，去年第一个宣布退出价格战，这次它在内部信里说暂停加盟申请，也是行业首个。 喜茶品牌成立到第六年一直以全直营模式经营。公司自己选原材料、做茶、卖茶，手工做出近 30 元的奶盖茶。 直到消费者开始喝更便宜的茶，增长变难，喜茶 2022 年 11 月开放加盟。为此它提前降价、标准化 流程，门店数量从 2022 年底的 855 家增长至去年底的 4548 家，成了中国门店数量第六多的现制茶 饮品牌。 随着现制茶饮竞争加剧，热门区域门店加密、市场转入存量竞争。行业同店下滑、一些品牌的加盟 商转亏，去年门店总数净减少 1.6 万间。喜茶率先放下门店增长的目标，暂停才开始 2 年多的加 盟。 今年 1 月，喜茶 DP（白日梦）店在成都春熙路开张。DP 店自营，设计精美、面积更大，消费者 还能尝到常规店没有的饮品，但价格往往更高。上一家 DP 店 2018 年 10 月在深圳开业，一年多后 关闭，也是喜茶第一家 DP 店。喜茶在这次的内部信里说要 "聚焦用户和品牌"，DP 店回归或许是 新战略的开端。 比亚迪超 21 ...