证券研究报告·公司点评报告·普钢 新兴铸管（000778） 2025 年三季报：符合预期，坚定看好水管网 管材配置机遇 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 43,253 | 36,194 | 33,871 | 36,761 | 42,034 | | 同比（%） | (9.44) | (16.32) | (6.42) | 8.53 | 14.34 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,350.82 | 167.44 | 273.33 | 987.89 | 2,712.92 | | 同比（%） | (19.40) | (87.60) | 63.24 | 261.43 | 174.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.34 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.68 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.67 | 102.25 | 62.64 | 17.33 | 6.31 | ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 28 年 月 日 新兴铸管（000778.SZ） 季度盈利环比增长，后续有望继续改善 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季度报告。公司前三季度实现营业收入 271.83 亿元， 同比增长 0.38%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 6.99 亿元，同比增长 44.67%； 基本每股收益 0.1764 元。 季度盈利环比增长，销售毛利率持续修复。公司 2025Q3 实现归母净利 2.96 亿元， 同比增加 430.36%，环比增长 10.74%，扣非归母净利 2.75 亿元，同比增加 893.25%，环比增长 16.23%；前三季度中钢协 CSPI 钢材价格指数均值为 93.76， 同比下降 9.19%，1-8 月份黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润总额 837 亿元，去年 同期利润总额为-169.7 亿元，公司业绩与行业盈利同步显著改善。公司 2024Q4- 2025Q3 逐季销售毛利率分别为 4.84%、7.61%、8.1%、7.89%，逐季销售净利率 分别为-4.98%、1.83%、3.05%、3.33%，随着政府消费与居民消费在政策推动下 持续改善 ...

Macro Strategy - The recent cooling of US employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][13][17] - The US non-farm payrolls for August showed an increase of only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a weakening labor market [1][17] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, reflecting a trend of declining labor demand [1][17] Fixed Income - The issuance of green bonds in the primary market totaled approximately 8.767 billion yuan, an increase of 1.651 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The secondary market saw a total transaction volume of green bonds amounting to 48.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Analysis - In the non-ferrous metals sector, copper prices are under pressure due to slow demand recovery, while supply is expected to tighten due to large-scale maintenance in domestic smelting plants [9] - Gold prices have surged to new highs, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid concerns over US employment data and geopolitical tensions [9] - The aluminum market is experiencing a slight increase in production capacity utilization, but overall demand remains subdued, indicating a cautious outlook for prices [9] Utility Sector - Investment opportunities in the power sector are highlighted, particularly in hydropower and thermal power, as demand peaks during summer [10][11] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see growth with multiple approvals for new projects, enhancing profitability and dividend potential [10][11] Steel Industry - The steel industry is transitioning from active to passive destocking, driven by policy changes and infrastructure projects, which may support a rebound in rebar prices [11][12] - The forecast for the company's net profit shows significant growth, with expected increases of 63.24%, 261.43%, and 174.62% from 2025 to 2027 [12] Resin Industry - The resin sector is poised for growth due to increasing demand from AI and cloud services, with projected revenue growth for the company reaching 52 billion yuan by 2025 [12] - The company is well-positioned in the high-frequency resin market, catering to major global manufacturers, which enhances its competitive edge [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its market performance and growth potential [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.728 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 404 million yuan, down 5.58% year-on-year. However, the second quarter showed a significant recovery with a net profit of 267 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 94.77% [1]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the ductile iron pipe industry in China, benefiting from urban pipeline renovations and water conservancy facility construction. The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 820 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.23 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.6, 15.4, and 12.4 [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.728 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.36% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 404 million yuan, down 5.58% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of 0.1018 yuan, a decrease of 5.04% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a recovery with a net profit of 267 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 94.77% [1]. Production and Sales - The sales volume of metal products increased by 8.22% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with ductile iron pipe sales up by 5.43%. The company aims for a production target of 9.92 million tons of metal products in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [2]. - The company has successfully launched a 250,000-ton ductile iron pipe project in Egypt and is establishing a distribution network in the Middle East and North Africa [2]. Market Outlook - The water conservancy construction investment in China reached 532.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with various projects underway. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 3.2% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a positive trend for the company's business [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing government support for infrastructure projects, including urban underground pipeline renovations and large-scale industrial equipment upgrades [3].

Group 1: Economic Cooperation and Development - The China-Egypt TEDA Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone is emerging as a new "oasis" for win-win cooperation, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative and Egypt's Suez Canal Economic Corridor [1] - The establishment of the Xidian-EGEMAC high voltage electrical company has significantly alleviated Egypt's electricity supply issues since its involvement in the national grid project in 2016 [1] - The Aswan Benban photovoltaic industrial park project has provided approximately 16,000 GWh of electricity since its completion, supporting Egypt's economic and social development [1] Group 2: Workforce Development and Local Impact - The Xidian-EGEMAC company has trained a significant number of local engineers, with over 97% of its workforce being Egyptian, enhancing local talent in the electrical engineering sector [2] - Midea's kitchen and water heater company in Egypt aims for 80% of its dishwasher production to be exported by the end of 2024, with plans to double production by 2025, contributing to the local manufacturing ecosystem [2] - The new ductile iron pipe production base by Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes is expected to generate nearly $200 million in foreign exchange annually and create over 500 local jobs [3] Group 3: Industrial Growth and Diversification - The TEDA cooperation zone has developed a cluster of leading industries, including new building materials, oil equipment, high and low voltage equipment, machinery manufacturing, textiles, chemicals, new energy, and white goods [3] - The cooperation between China and Egypt in the TEDA zone is fostering a new era of industrial growth and diversification, revitalizing Egypt's economy [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [5]. Core Views - The company has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in its performance, with a significant increase in net profit by 143.36% compared to the previous quarter, despite a year-on-year decline [1]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand in infrastructure, particularly in water conservancy projects, with a notable growth in investment in this sector [3]. - The company aims to increase its metal products output to 9.92 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.6%, indicating substantial capacity expansion potential [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.21%, but a quarter-on-quarter improvement [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 137 million yuan, down 19.84% year-on-year but up 143.36% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 800 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.18 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.8, 14.2, and 11.3 [3][4]. Industry Insights - The water conservancy construction investment in China reached 1,352.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with Q1 2025 showing a 2.9% growth [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from government policies supporting infrastructure projects, including urban pipeline renovations and large-scale industrial equipment upgrades [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [5]. Core Views - The company has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in its performance, with a significant increase in net profit by 143.36% compared to the previous quarter, despite a year-on-year decline [1]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand in infrastructure, particularly in water conservancy projects, with a notable growth in investment in this sector [3]. - The company aims to increase its metal products output to 9.92 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.6%, indicating substantial capacity expansion potential [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.21%, but a quarter-on-quarter improvement [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 137 million yuan, down 19.84% year-on-year but up 143.36% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 800 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.18 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.8, 14.2, and 11.3 [3][4]. Industry Insights - The water conservancy construction investment in China reached 1,352.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with Q1 2025 showing a 2.9% growth [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from national policies supporting infrastructure projects, including urban pipeline renovations and large-scale industrial equipment upgrades [3].