Core Insights - Li Auto (理想汽车) reported unaudited financial results for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, showing a vehicle sales revenue of RMB 28.885 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [1] - Total revenue reached RMB 30.246 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.093 billion, a slight decrease of 0.91% [1] - The company maintains its position as the top-selling Chinese automotive brand in the RMB 200,000 and above new energy vehicle market [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for the quarter was reported at a healthy 20.1%, with quarterly net profit increasing by 69.6% to RMB 1.1 billion [1] - The basic earnings per share were RMB 0.54 [1] Product and Market Strategy - The CEO highlighted the strong market response to the Li MEGA Home version, which has topped the sales chart for MPVs priced above RMB 500,000 since May [1] - The company continues to innovate in electric vehicles and smart technology, with the launch of the Li i8, a six-seat pure electric SUV, and the self-developed VLA driver model [1] - A brand upgrade was announced to cater to a broader range of consumers, including families, aiming to enhance product quality and private space [1] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch the Li i6 in September, which is expected to further expand its product matrix and strengthen its position in the high-end pure electric vehicle market in China [1]

Market Overview - The market showed a "two-headed" trend during the May Day to Dragon Boat Festival period, but the customer flow (lead volume) gradually weakened after May Day, with a brief spike during the Dragon Boat Festival followed by another decline [1] - The passenger car sales off-season has returned to the pre-2020 model, with this year's off-season starting earlier in mid to late May, compared to early June in previous years [2] - The June market is expected to be weaker compared to May, with some brands potentially seeing short-term highlights due to new car launches or strong incentive policies, but the overall market is showing a clear downward trend month-on-month [3] Brand Sales Observations - BYD: Daily average orders have decreased by 10%-15% year-on-year, with retail pressure significant and main brand order volume maintaining at around 60,000 to 70,000 units [4] - Geely Galaxy: Achieved approximately 120,000 units in May, with a target of 120,000 units for June. Recent weekly orders are around 18,000 to 20,000 units due to pricing concerns [5] - Li Auto: The L6 new version launched in May, with weekly orders dropping to about 10,000 units after a spike during the Dragon Boat Festival [6] - AITO Wenjie: Recent orders mainly driven by the Greater Bay Area, with a decline in order volume when excluding orders from the Greater Bay Area and intermediaries [7] - Leap Motor: Orders remain relatively stable, with weekly orders around 8,000 to 9,000 units [8] - Zeekr: Orders are around 3,000 to 3,500 units [9] - XPeng: Total orders last week were about 11,000 units, with the MONA03 accounting for 6,000 to 7,000 units [10] - Tesla: Orders are highly volatile, with promotional measures leading to a rebound in orders [11] Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The industry needs to endure the off-season in June and July, with some brands adjusting their semi-annual targets [13] - Fuel vehicles, especially B-class sedans/SUVs, may see a surge in sales around the half-year assessment [14] - Negative factors include tightening or halting of vehicle trade-in subsidies in cities like Zhengzhou, which may lengthen consumer decision-making cycles [15] - Consumer behavior shows a clear trend of downgrading, with a significant increase in A0-class electric vehicles, while mid-to-high-end vehicle consumption remains cautious [16] New Energy Vehicle Penetration and Competition - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles fluctuates between 50%-55%, with traditional fuel vehicles still showing resilience [17] - Fuel vehicles are favored for their cost-effectiveness, long-term stability, and durability, while electric vehicles face challenges due to rapid technological iterations and concerns over second-hand value [18] - Brands like Leap Motor and Geely are primarily capturing market share from BYD, with BYD's market share dropping from nearly 40% to 25%-28% [19] Policy Impact on Vehicle Purchase Tax - The expected reduction of the vehicle purchase tax exemption from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan by 2026 will lower the taxable price threshold significantly [20] - The current average transaction price of passenger cars is around 168,000 yuan, with the new policy potentially covering about 75% of sales [20] Key New Vehicle Launches 1. XPeng G7: Positioned between G6 and G9, expected to sell 8,000 to 10,000 units monthly if priced reasonably [21][22] 2. Xiaomi YU7: High initial interest with a projected monthly sales of over 25,000 units [23][24][25][28] 3. Li Auto i8: Aiming for over 5,000 units monthly, with a competitive pricing strategy [29][30][31] 4. Li Auto MEGA Home Edition: High demand for the top configuration, with a unique market position [32] Export and Market Dynamics - BYD has shown strong export performance in regions like Europe, America, and South Asia due to its competitive pricing and parameter advantages [33] - The competition in the 300,000+ mid-to-large SUV market is primarily targeting the share of joint venture and foreign fuel vehicles [34] - The market capacity for fuel vehicles in 2024 is estimated at around 530,000 units, with new energy vehicles expected to capture an additional 100,000+ units [35]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.74% to close at 22,504.68 points on May 2, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 3.08% to 5,244.06 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.92% [2] - The market saw a cumulative increase of over 2% for the Hang Seng Index this week, marking the third consecutive week of gains, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 5%, indicating a second consecutive week of growth [2] - Major technology stocks performed well, with Alibaba up by 3.83%, Tencent by 2.22%, and Xiaomi by 6.31% [2] Industry Highlights - The electric vehicle sector saw significant gains, with Li Auto rising by 3.57%, Xpeng by 6.66%, and BYD by 3.3% [3] - Apple-related stocks also experienced a rally, with Weishi Jiajie up by 7.39% and Sunny Optical Technology up by 3.59% [3] - The tea beverage sector continued its upward trend, with Nayuki's Tea increasing by 8.85% [3] Economic and Policy Context - The impact of tariff policies has diminished, leading to a recovery in global stock indices, with the Hang Seng market showing signs of positive sentiment [5] - The Chinese government is expected to implement additional fiscal policies ranging from 1 trillion to 3 trillion yuan to support economic growth amid external pressures [6] - UBS anticipates that the People's Bank of China may lower reserve requirements by 100 to 200 basis points and interest rates by 30 to 50 basis points within the next 12 months [6] Investment Recommendations - The investment strategy suggested by CMB International focuses on a balanced allocation of "high elasticity + high dividend" to navigate uncertainties, particularly favoring AI and technology sectors [6] - Defensive state-owned enterprises in finance, energy, telecommunications, and utilities are recommended for their resilience against tariff and economic growth risks [6]