耐世特 20251215 摘要 耐世特预计 2025 年实现接近 50 亿美元的订单目标，四季度订单流入 显著增加，包括中国客户的新转向订单，以及全球范围内线控转向、后 轮转向等新业务机会。 公司已采取措施应对墨西哥对中国进口产品加征关税的影响，通过成本 转嫁和本地化采购，将大部分关税成本转嫁给下游客户，北美本地化采 购比例已接近 90%。 展望 2026 年，欧美市场收入预计持平但盈利有望改善，亚太区中国客 户组合优质，新业务获取及投产前景广阔，全球化和本地化战略将赋能 中国整车厂客户。 公司通过优化产线、在墨西哥设立本地化研发中心等措施改善北美盈利 能力，并计划将部分工厂持有变租赁或出售以提高效率，欧洲市场盈利 能力也有望进一步提升。 线控转向系统价格区间大致在 3,000-4,000 元人民币之间，与传统 EPS 相比，价格和业务模式均有提升，且中国市场采用上下打包采购模式。 Q&A 国内现股转项法规预计 2026 年初发布，将加速线控转向技术在中国市 场的应用与推广，该技术能够更好地支持高级辅助驾驶（ADAS）及自 动驾驶。 EMBA 项目预计 2026 年获得首个订单，2027 年投产，公司计划在 ...

Core Insights - The automotive market is increasingly focusing on intelligent driving, with steer-by-wire (SBW) systems emerging as a key investment opportunity, particularly highlighted by Tesla's Cybercab model which eliminates mechanical connections [1][2] - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China support the development of L3 autonomous vehicles, paving the way for SBW systems and enhancing market expectations for the industry [1][3] Company Overview - The company, Nastec, specializes in steering systems, including electric power steering (EPS), hydraulic power steering (HPS), and SBW systems, holding a leading market position in EPS and SBW technologies [2] - SBW technology, which relies solely on electrical signals for steering control, is crucial for higher levels of automation in vehicles, particularly L3 and above [2] Market Position and Performance - Nastec is positioned as a top supplier in the SBW market, having secured its first SBW order in 2022 from Tesla and additional orders from domestic automakers, with plans to commence production in 2026 [3] - The company has a solid foundation in the EPS market, with a revenue of $1.525 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8.57% year-on-year growth, and contributing 68% to total revenue [4][8] Financial Stability - Nastec's major clients, including General Motors, contribute significantly to its revenue, with the top three clients accounting for 68.5% of total income [8] - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of the year was $230 million, with a profit margin of 10.26%, indicating a steady improvement in profitability [8] Industry Outlook - The SBW industry is expected to enter a commercial phase by 2025, with projections indicating that the domestic market could exceed 35 billion yuan and the global market could surpass 80 billion yuan by 2030 [9] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Nastec, with expectations of improved profitability and market share growth, particularly in the Chinese market [9][10] Future Growth Potential - By 2026, Nastec's revenue structure is anticipated to shift, with SBW contributing a significant portion, while maintaining a strong presence in the North American and Chinese markets [10] - The company's established product matrix and early mover advantage in SBW position it well for future growth, with a low valuation suggesting potential for market capitalization increase [10]

Core Insights - The automotive market is increasingly focusing on intelligent driving, with steer-by-wire (SBW) systems emerging as a key investment opportunity, particularly highlighted by Tesla's Cybercab model which eliminates mechanical connections [1][2] - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China support the development of intelligent connected vehicles, paving the way for L3-level autonomous driving and enhancing market expectations for SBW systems [1][5] - As a leading player in the SBW sector, the company has established orders with Tesla and several domestic automakers, with production and delivery expected in 2026, reflecting strong market demand [2][5] Company Overview - The company specializes in steering systems, including electric power steering (EPS), hydraulic power steering (HPS), and SBW systems, holding a leading market position in EPS and SBW technologies [2][5] - SBW technology, which eliminates the intermediate steering shaft, is crucial for higher levels of automation in driving, particularly L3 and above, where driver intervention is not required [2] Market Dynamics - The SBW industry is anticipated to enter a phase of large-scale production by the second half of 2025, with the company positioned as a top supplier benefiting from its technological advantages and production experience [5] - The company received its first SBW order in 2022 from Tesla and has since secured additional orders from domestic automakers, indicating a growing market presence [5][10] Financial Performance - The company's EPS segment generated $1.525 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.57% year-over-year increase, with a significant contribution from the North American and Asia-Pacific markets [6][9] - The company maintains a stable order target of $5 billion for the year, with a strong customer base including General Motors, which contributed 34.39% of revenue in the first half of the year [9] Future Outlook - The line control steering industry is expected to experience significant growth, with projections indicating that the domestic market could exceed 35 billion yuan by 2030, and the global market could surpass 80 billion yuan [10] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on the company, with expectations of improved profitability and market share growth, particularly in the U.S. and China [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high-level intelligent driving is accelerating the penetration of steer-by-wire (SBW) systems, which are expected to replace traditional mechanical chassis. The steer-by-wire technology is currently in the product introduction phase and is anticipated to enter mass production in 2025. The market for steer-by-wire is projected to reach 68.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2030 [3][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The demand for automotive intelligence is driving the continuous upgrade of intelligent driving systems, with L2 and above levels expected to penetrate over 50% of the market. The steer-by-wire system, currently with a penetration rate of less than 1%, has significant growth potential [6][25]. Trends - The transition from mechanical steering to electric steering and now to steer-by-wire is evident. The electric power steering (EPS) market is nearing saturation, with a penetration rate close to 100%. The steer-by-wire system is expected to become a key component in L3 and above autonomous driving, with a projected domestic penetration rate of 30% by 2030 [7][49]. Market Structure - The EPS market is primarily dominated by foreign companies, with the top five players holding significant market shares. Domestic companies are expected to catch up in the steer-by-wire market, with some already achieving mass production [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steer-by-wire system is on the verge of mass production, presenting substantial growth opportunities for domestic companies. It recommends companies like Top Group and Berteli, which are making significant progress in this area [9][11].

Overview - Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co., Ltd. is issuing convertible bonds totaling 280,200 million yuan (28,020,000 bonds) [4][8] - The bonds will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 28, 2025 [4][9] - The bonds have a maturity period from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2031, with a conversion period from January 7, 2026, to June 30, 2031 [4][8] Company Information - The registered capital of Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co., Ltd. is 606.51 million yuan [9] - The company was established on June 25, 2004, and went public on April 27, 2018 [9] - The company specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of automotive safety system components, electronic control modules, and related consulting services [9] Bond Details - The convertible bond is named "伯 25 转债" with the code 113696 [4][9] - The bonds are rated AA by Zhongzheng Pengyuan Credit Rating Co., Ltd., with a stable outlook [5][6] - The bonds are unsecured and will not provide any guarantees [5] Issuance Process - The issuance will prioritize existing shareholders, with any remaining bonds available to the public through the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8][9] - If the subscription amount is less than 280,200 million yuan, the lead underwriters will underwrite the shortfall [8] Historical Context - The company previously issued convertible bonds totaling 90,200 million yuan in 2021, which were listed on July 21, 2021 [20] - The company has a history of share repurchase and employee stock ownership plans, indicating a commitment to shareholder value [15][21][28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.32 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [5][56]. Core Viewpoints - Zhejiang Shibao is positioned as a leading enterprise in the automotive steering system sector in China, with a focus on the development, manufacturing, and sales of steering systems. The company has successfully transitioned from traditional hydraulic systems to electric power steering (EPS) and is set to launch steer-by-wire systems in 2026 [1][4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth due to the introduction of new products and expansion into new customer segments, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhejiang Shibao, established in 1993, is a key player in the automotive steering system industry in China, transitioning from mechanical and hydraulic steering systems to electric power steering [12][18]. - The company serves a diverse customer base, with 82% of revenue from passenger vehicles and 18% from commercial vehicles in 2024 [19][22]. Development Stages - From 2015 to 2019, the company faced challenges with revenue growth not translating into profit due to high costs and quality issues affecting exports [2][25]. - Post-2020, the company capitalized on the recovery of the automotive market and expanded its customer base, leading to improved capacity utilization and profitability [2][40]. Embracing New Technologies - The company is actively pursuing steer-by-wire technology, which eliminates mechanical linkages and enhances vehicle design flexibility. Initial production is expected in 2026 [3][51]. - In the commercial vehicle sector, the company has developed electric hydraulic and electric steering systems, aligning with new emission standards and increasing demand for energy-efficient solutions [3][55]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 35.1 billion, 43.7 billion, and 52.0 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 2.7 billion, 3.8 billion, and 5.1 billion CNY, reflecting significant growth rates [4][56]. - The company is valued at a 20X PE ratio for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 55 billion HKD [4][56].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record revenue of $4.3 billion in 2024, an increase of 1.6% compared to 2023, driven by strong customer production schedules in APAC with China OEMs [12][41][46] - EBITDA grew by 22.5% year-over-year, reaching $424 million, with margins expanding by 170 basis points compared to 2023 [40][49] - Net profit improved by 68% to $62 million, with a margin increase of 50 basis points [42][58] - Free cash flow rose to $166 million, an increase of $61 million compared to 2023 [40][60] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company launched a record 77 customer programs in 2024, with 45 tied to electric vehicle programs [13][16] - Customer program bookings totaled $6 billion in lifetime revenue, including significant steer by wire production awards [14][20] - The APAC division achieved record revenue of $1.3 billion, growing more than 10% compared to 2023 [14][48] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - APAC adjusted revenue increased by 11.7%, significantly outperforming the market by 11.3%, driven by new and conquest program launches [46][47] - North America revenue decreased by 2.9% to $2.19 billion, while EMEA SA revenue slightly declined [48][49] - The company is now the number one steering supplier in the China market among domestic OEMs [12][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive innovation and growth, focusing on becoming a leader in motion control technology [5][6] - Key strategies include expanding the customer base, strengthening technology leadership, optimizing cost structures, and targeting emerging markets like China and India [11][12][29] - The company is committed to leveraging AI technology and automation to improve operational efficiencies [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the steer by wire technology, particularly in the China market, which is expected to lead in adoption [33][82] - The company anticipates a flat global OEM production volume in 2025, with expectations to outperform the market by 200 to 300 basis points in revenue [61][63] - Management is actively working to mitigate tariff costs and is preparing plans for compliance with USMCA requirements [76][77] Other Important Information - The Board approved a dividend increase to $22 million, representing a 35% payout ratio, up from a historical 20% [15][40] - The company opened a new facility in Changshu, China, to enhance manufacturing and testing capabilities [26][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details about the steer by wire project size and content compared to traditional EPS? - Management indicated that the steer by wire system for the North American EV leader is a road wheel actuator, similar to a dual pinion system, with additional safety redundancies [68][69] Question: Are there discussions with OEM customers regarding potential tariffs and production shifts? - Management noted that the tariff environment is dynamic, and they are working with customers to mitigate costs and develop countermeasure plans [75][76] Question: What is the expected steer by wire revenue mix by 2027-2030? - Management expects steer by wire to represent about 5% of total revenue by 2027-2030, with China leading in adoption [82] Question: What is the outlook for the U.S. auto market growth amid tariffs and inflation? - Management anticipates a 3% reduction in North American production volumes, which could be at risk due to tariffs and consumer sentiment [84][85] Question: What is the latest margin guidance for the near term? - Management did not provide specific guidance but indicated a focus on improving margins, with expectations for incremental expansion into 2025 [87]