本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 证券研究报告 汽车/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） 线控底盘：解锁高阶智驾，迈入放量周期 智能驾驶专题系列（一） 分析师：黄程保 SAC执业证书编号：S0910525040002 2026年2月27日 u 线控底盘是实现高阶智驾的必备技术之一，在智驾加速渗透中放量在即。线控底盘成为智能电动汽车实现差异化体验与 技术迭代的关键，推动汽车从机械向线控驱动变革，其核心价值在于突破传统机械底盘的性能边界，借助传感器实时感 知、算法动态决策与执行机构精准响应，为高阶智能驾驶提供精准可靠的执行能力。根据亿欧智库预计，2025年中国乘 用车智能底盘市场规模将达到466亿元，2030年将达到1171亿元，2025-2030CAGR为20.24%，呈现快速渗透态势。 u 在线控底盘中，重点关注线控制动/转向。在线控底盘的五大系统中，线控制动、转向、悬架开发难度高，外资占据主导 地位。从市场渗透率看，线控驱动已经接近标配水平，线控转向、线控悬架渗透率尚处起步阶段，线控制动、线控换挡 正处于大规模商业 ...

根据公告披露，本次收购交易对象涉及豫北转向多名股东，包括峻鸿实业有限公司、宁波奉元股权投资合伙企业（有限合 伙）、合肥华芯云向汽车电子投资合伙企业（有限合伙）等。各方一致同意，豫北转向的估值不超过22亿元，本次转让的交易 价款不超过11.21亿元。 本报记者 徐一鸣 2月26日晚间，芜湖伯特利汽车安全系统股份有限公司（以下简称"伯特利"）发布公告称，公司拟收购豫北转向系统（新 乡）股份有限公司（以下简称"豫北转向"）50.9727%的控股权，交易完成后豫北转向将纳入伯特利合并报表范围。 上海大学悉尼工商学院讲师王雨婷对《证券日报》记者表示，"制动+转向"的协同融合，已成为智能底盘系统的核心竞争 力之一，伯特利此次计划收购豫北转向，有利于双方战略发展互补。 从市场发展来看，随着中国新能源汽车的销售额及市场渗透率不断提升，对更高质量、更高性能、更智能化汽车零部件的 需求日益增加。华经产业研究院数据显示，2017年至2022年，我国汽车零配件市场规模从3.7万亿元增长至5.4万亿元，预计 2027年我国汽车零配件市场规模有望达7.8万亿元。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，汽车零部件企业正 ...

Core Insights - Foreign-funded enterprises' R&D institutions are crucial to China's technological innovation system and multinational companies' global R&D networks, with R&D investment in China increasing significantly over the past decade [1] - Suzhou has become a hub for foreign R&D, with nearly 4000 foreign enterprises, 70% of which have established R&D institutions, supported by new policies to attract more R&D resources [1][2] - The transformation of foreign enterprises in China from production bases to innovation centers is exemplified by companies like Nexteer Automotive Systems, which has developed comprehensive innovation capabilities and contributed to industry transformation [2][5] R&D Investment and Growth - Since 2013, R&D funding for foreign-funded industrial enterprises in China has grown by over 86%, and the number of effective invention patents has increased by 336% [1] - In Suzhou, nearly 90% of foreign-funded industrial enterprises have established R&D institutions, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [1][2] Case Study: Nexteer Automotive Systems - Nexteer Automotive Systems (Suzhou) has evolved from a production facility to a global innovation center, establishing a full-cycle innovation capability from concept design to intelligent manufacturing [2][5] - The company has applied for and authorized 20 invention patents and has participated in the formulation and revision of national standards, showcasing its role in driving technological advancements [2][5] Strategic Developments - The establishment of the Asia-Pacific Intelligent Manufacturing Headquarters in Suzhou, with an investment of 1 billion yuan, aims to enhance production capacity and drive technological innovation [3][6] - Nexteer has maintained a consistent R&D investment ratio of over 6%, focusing on electric power steering and next-generation steering systems [5][6] Innovation Ecosystem - The establishment of the "Nexteer Motion Control Technology Research Institute" in Suzhou is a significant milestone, receiving 10 million yuan in special funding to foster innovation and collaboration [11][12] - The company is building an innovation ecosystem by collaborating with automotive manufacturers, universities, and research institutions to accelerate the development of new technologies [12] Market Dynamics - The shift in foreign enterprises' investment logic in China is moving from market-driven and cost-driven to innovation-driven, with local talent becoming the main force in R&D [7][8] - The rapid evolution of the Chinese automotive market, characterized by diverse demands and fast iteration, is driving Nexteer's R&D focus towards electric and intelligent vehicle technologies [11][12] Future Outlook - By 2026, Nexteer aims to leverage its strong industrial foundation and innovation resources in Suzhou to enhance global collaboration and accelerate the transformation of R&D achievements [14]

Key Points Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is **Nexteer Automotive**, focusing on its performance and strategic initiatives in the automotive steering systems industry. Core Industry Insights - **Order Target**: Nexteer aims to achieve nearly **$5 billion** in orders by 2025, with a significant increase in order inflow expected in Q4, driven by new steering orders from Chinese customers and global opportunities in steer-by-wire and rear-wheel steering systems [2][4]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The company has effectively managed the impact of tariffs imposed by Mexico on Chinese imports by passing most of the costs onto downstream customers, achieving a localization procurement rate of nearly **90%** in North America [2][8]. - **Market Outlook for 2026**: Revenue in the European and American markets is expected to remain stable, but profitability is projected to improve. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly with a strong customer base in China, presents significant opportunities for new business and production [2][7]. Financial Performance - **EBITDA Expectations**: The company anticipates maintaining a **17% EBITDA** margin for the year, with further recovery potential in the European and North American markets despite short-term fluctuations due to tariffs and electric vehicle policies [3][13]. - **Profitability Improvement Measures**: Nexteer is optimizing production lines, establishing a localized R&D center in Mexico, and considering leasing or selling some factories to enhance efficiency and profitability in North America [2][14]. Product and Technology Developments - **Steer-by-Wire Systems**: The price range for steer-by-wire systems is approximately **3,000-4,000 RMB**, which represents an improvement over traditional EPS systems. The Chinese market is adopting a bundled procurement model for these systems [2][19]. - **Regulatory Changes**: New regulations regarding steer-by-wire technology in China are expected to be released in early 2026, which will facilitate the commercialization of this technology and support advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving [4][20]. - **EMBA Project**: The EMBA project is projected to secure its first order in 2026 and commence production in 2027, with increased R&D investment planned for 2025 and 2026 to expedite commercialization [4][25]. Market Dynamics - **Global Supply Chain Trends**: Since 2024, there has been a trend towards localizing supply chains, with a significant reduction in trade exposure from China to North America. This shift is expected to continue as tariff policies evolve [8][9]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Nexteer remains a leading player in the EPS market, competing with companies like Bosch and ZF, while also expanding into high-end vehicle markets through partnerships with Chinese manufacturers [10]. Future Prospects - **Growth Opportunities in Europe**: The European market presents new growth opportunities, particularly with major clients like Fiat and PSA, and potential projects involving shared electric platforms expected to launch between 2028 and 2029 [15][16]. - **Tax Rate Expectations**: The effective tax rate is projected to stabilize around **30%** in 2025, with potential adjustments to approximately **20%** in the coming years as the company returns to profitability in the U.S. [17]. Conclusion - Nexteer Automotive is strategically positioned to leverage its strong customer base, innovative technologies, and localized supply chain strategies to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities in the automotive industry.

Core Insights - The automotive market is increasingly focusing on intelligent driving, with steer-by-wire (SBW) systems emerging as a key investment opportunity, particularly highlighted by Tesla's Cybercab model which eliminates mechanical connections [1][2] - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China support the development of L3 autonomous vehicles, paving the way for SBW systems and enhancing market expectations for the industry [1][3] Company Overview - The company, Nastec, specializes in steering systems, including electric power steering (EPS), hydraulic power steering (HPS), and SBW systems, holding a leading market position in EPS and SBW technologies [2] - SBW technology, which relies solely on electrical signals for steering control, is crucial for higher levels of automation in vehicles, particularly L3 and above [2] Market Position and Performance - Nastec is positioned as a top supplier in the SBW market, having secured its first SBW order in 2022 from Tesla and additional orders from domestic automakers, with plans to commence production in 2026 [3] - The company has a solid foundation in the EPS market, with a revenue of $1.525 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8.57% year-on-year growth, and contributing 68% to total revenue [4][8] Financial Stability - Nastec's major clients, including General Motors, contribute significantly to its revenue, with the top three clients accounting for 68.5% of total income [8] - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of the year was $230 million, with a profit margin of 10.26%, indicating a steady improvement in profitability [8] Industry Outlook - The SBW industry is expected to enter a commercial phase by 2025, with projections indicating that the domestic market could exceed 35 billion yuan and the global market could surpass 80 billion yuan by 2030 [9] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Nastec, with expectations of improved profitability and market share growth, particularly in the Chinese market [9][10] Future Growth Potential - By 2026, Nastec's revenue structure is anticipated to shift, with SBW contributing a significant portion, while maintaining a strong presence in the North American and Chinese markets [10] - The company's established product matrix and early mover advantage in SBW position it well for future growth, with a low valuation suggesting potential for market capitalization increase [10]

Core Insights - The automotive market is increasingly focusing on intelligent driving, with steer-by-wire (SBW) systems emerging as a key investment opportunity, particularly highlighted by Tesla's Cybercab model which eliminates mechanical connections [1][2] - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China support the development of intelligent connected vehicles, paving the way for L3-level autonomous driving and enhancing market expectations for SBW systems [1][5] - As a leading player in the SBW sector, the company has established orders with Tesla and several domestic automakers, with production and delivery expected in 2026, reflecting strong market demand [2][5] Company Overview - The company specializes in steering systems, including electric power steering (EPS), hydraulic power steering (HPS), and SBW systems, holding a leading market position in EPS and SBW technologies [2][5] - SBW technology, which eliminates the intermediate steering shaft, is crucial for higher levels of automation in driving, particularly L3 and above, where driver intervention is not required [2] Market Dynamics - The SBW industry is anticipated to enter a phase of large-scale production by the second half of 2025, with the company positioned as a top supplier benefiting from its technological advantages and production experience [5] - The company received its first SBW order in 2022 from Tesla and has since secured additional orders from domestic automakers, indicating a growing market presence [5][10] Financial Performance - The company's EPS segment generated $1.525 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.57% year-over-year increase, with a significant contribution from the North American and Asia-Pacific markets [6][9] - The company maintains a stable order target of $5 billion for the year, with a strong customer base including General Motors, which contributed 34.39% of revenue in the first half of the year [9] Future Outlook - The line control steering industry is expected to experience significant growth, with projections indicating that the domestic market could exceed 35 billion yuan by 2030, and the global market could surpass 80 billion yuan [10] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on the company, with expectations of improved profitability and market share growth, particularly in the U.S. and China [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high-level intelligent driving is accelerating the penetration of steer-by-wire (SBW) systems, which are expected to replace traditional mechanical chassis. The steer-by-wire technology is currently in the product introduction phase and is anticipated to enter mass production in 2025. The market for steer-by-wire is projected to reach 68.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2030 [3][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The demand for automotive intelligence is driving the continuous upgrade of intelligent driving systems, with L2 and above levels expected to penetrate over 50% of the market. The steer-by-wire system, currently with a penetration rate of less than 1%, has significant growth potential [6][25]. Trends - The transition from mechanical steering to electric steering and now to steer-by-wire is evident. The electric power steering (EPS) market is nearing saturation, with a penetration rate close to 100%. The steer-by-wire system is expected to become a key component in L3 and above autonomous driving, with a projected domestic penetration rate of 30% by 2030 [7][49]. Market Structure - The EPS market is primarily dominated by foreign companies, with the top five players holding significant market shares. Domestic companies are expected to catch up in the steer-by-wire market, with some already achieving mass production [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steer-by-wire system is on the verge of mass production, presenting substantial growth opportunities for domestic companies. It recommends companies like Top Group and Berteli, which are making significant progress in this area [9][11].

Overview - Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co., Ltd. is issuing convertible bonds totaling 280,200 million yuan (28,020,000 bonds) [4][8] - The bonds will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 28, 2025 [4][9] - The bonds have a maturity period from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2031, with a conversion period from January 7, 2026, to June 30, 2031 [4][8] Company Information - The registered capital of Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co., Ltd. is 606.51 million yuan [9] - The company was established on June 25, 2004, and went public on April 27, 2018 [9] - The company specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of automotive safety system components, electronic control modules, and related consulting services [9] Bond Details - The convertible bond is named "伯 25 转债" with the code 113696 [4][9] - The bonds are rated AA by Zhongzheng Pengyuan Credit Rating Co., Ltd., with a stable outlook [5][6] - The bonds are unsecured and will not provide any guarantees [5] Issuance Process - The issuance will prioritize existing shareholders, with any remaining bonds available to the public through the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8][9] - If the subscription amount is less than 280,200 million yuan, the lead underwriters will underwrite the shortfall [8] Historical Context - The company previously issued convertible bonds totaling 90,200 million yuan in 2021, which were listed on July 21, 2021 [20] - The company has a history of share repurchase and employee stock ownership plans, indicating a commitment to shareholder value [15][21][28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.32 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [5][56]. Core Viewpoints - Zhejiang Shibao is positioned as a leading enterprise in the automotive steering system sector in China, with a focus on the development, manufacturing, and sales of steering systems. The company has successfully transitioned from traditional hydraulic systems to electric power steering (EPS) and is set to launch steer-by-wire systems in 2026 [1][4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth due to the introduction of new products and expansion into new customer segments, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhejiang Shibao, established in 1993, is a key player in the automotive steering system industry in China, transitioning from mechanical and hydraulic steering systems to electric power steering [12][18]. - The company serves a diverse customer base, with 82% of revenue from passenger vehicles and 18% from commercial vehicles in 2024 [19][22]. Development Stages - From 2015 to 2019, the company faced challenges with revenue growth not translating into profit due to high costs and quality issues affecting exports [2][25]. - Post-2020, the company capitalized on the recovery of the automotive market and expanded its customer base, leading to improved capacity utilization and profitability [2][40]. Embracing New Technologies - The company is actively pursuing steer-by-wire technology, which eliminates mechanical linkages and enhances vehicle design flexibility. Initial production is expected in 2026 [3][51]. - In the commercial vehicle sector, the company has developed electric hydraulic and electric steering systems, aligning with new emission standards and increasing demand for energy-efficient solutions [3][55]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 35.1 billion, 43.7 billion, and 52.0 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 2.7 billion, 3.8 billion, and 5.1 billion CNY, reflecting significant growth rates [4][56]. - The company is valued at a 20X PE ratio for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 55 billion HKD [4][56].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record revenue of $4.3 billion in 2024, an increase of 1.6% compared to 2023, driven by strong customer production schedules in APAC with China OEMs [12][41][46] - EBITDA grew by 22.5% year-over-year, reaching $424 million, with margins expanding by 170 basis points compared to 2023 [40][49] - Net profit improved by 68% to $62 million, with a margin increase of 50 basis points [42][58] - Free cash flow rose to $166 million, an increase of $61 million compared to 2023 [40][60] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company launched a record 77 customer programs in 2024, with 45 tied to electric vehicle programs [13][16] - Customer program bookings totaled $6 billion in lifetime revenue, including significant steer by wire production awards [14][20] - The APAC division achieved record revenue of $1.3 billion, growing more than 10% compared to 2023 [14][48] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - APAC adjusted revenue increased by 11.7%, significantly outperforming the market by 11.3%, driven by new and conquest program launches [46][47] - North America revenue decreased by 2.9% to $2.19 billion, while EMEA SA revenue slightly declined [48][49] - The company is now the number one steering supplier in the China market among domestic OEMs [12][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive innovation and growth, focusing on becoming a leader in motion control technology [5][6] - Key strategies include expanding the customer base, strengthening technology leadership, optimizing cost structures, and targeting emerging markets like China and India [11][12][29] - The company is committed to leveraging AI technology and automation to improve operational efficiencies [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the steer by wire technology, particularly in the China market, which is expected to lead in adoption [33][82] - The company anticipates a flat global OEM production volume in 2025, with expectations to outperform the market by 200 to 300 basis points in revenue [61][63] - Management is actively working to mitigate tariff costs and is preparing plans for compliance with USMCA requirements [76][77] Other Important Information - The Board approved a dividend increase to $22 million, representing a 35% payout ratio, up from a historical 20% [15][40] - The company opened a new facility in Changshu, China, to enhance manufacturing and testing capabilities [26][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details about the steer by wire project size and content compared to traditional EPS? - Management indicated that the steer by wire system for the North American EV leader is a road wheel actuator, similar to a dual pinion system, with additional safety redundancies [68][69] Question: Are there discussions with OEM customers regarding potential tariffs and production shifts? - Management noted that the tariff environment is dynamic, and they are working with customers to mitigate costs and develop countermeasure plans [75][76] Question: What is the expected steer by wire revenue mix by 2027-2030? - Management expects steer by wire to represent about 5% of total revenue by 2027-2030, with China leading in adoption [82] Question: What is the outlook for the U.S. auto market growth amid tariffs and inflation? - Management anticipates a 3% reduction in North American production volumes, which could be at risk due to tariffs and consumer sentiment [84][85] Question: What is the latest margin guidance for the near term? - Management did not provide specific guidance but indicated a focus on improving margins, with expectations for incremental expansion into 2025 [87]