本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 证券研究报告 汽车/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） 线控底盘：解锁高阶智驾，迈入放量周期 智能驾驶专题系列（一） 分析师：黄程保 SAC执业证书编号：S0910525040002 2026年2月27日 u 线控底盘是实现高阶智驾的必备技术之一，在智驾加速渗透中放量在即。线控底盘成为智能电动汽车实现差异化体验与 技术迭代的关键，推动汽车从机械向线控驱动变革，其核心价值在于突破传统机械底盘的性能边界，借助传感器实时感 知、算法动态决策与执行机构精准响应，为高阶智能驾驶提供精准可靠的执行能力。根据亿欧智库预计，2025年中国乘 用车智能底盘市场规模将达到466亿元，2030年将达到1171亿元，2025-2030CAGR为20.24%，呈现快速渗透态势。 u 在线控底盘中，重点关注线控制动/转向。在线控底盘的五大系统中，线控制动、转向、悬架开发难度高，外资占据主导 地位。从市场渗透率看，线控驱动已经接近标配水平，线控转向、线控悬架渗透率尚处起步阶段，线控制动、线控换挡 正处于大规模商业 ...

Core Insights - Foreign-funded enterprises' R&D institutions are crucial to China's technological innovation system and multinational companies' global R&D networks, with R&D investment in China increasing significantly over the past decade [1] - Suzhou has become a hub for foreign R&D, with nearly 4000 foreign enterprises, 70% of which have established R&D institutions, supported by new policies to attract more R&D resources [1][2] - The transformation of foreign enterprises in China from production bases to innovation centers is exemplified by companies like Nexteer Automotive Systems, which has developed comprehensive innovation capabilities and contributed to industry transformation [2][5] R&D Investment and Growth - Since 2013, R&D funding for foreign-funded industrial enterprises in China has grown by over 86%, and the number of effective invention patents has increased by 336% [1] - In Suzhou, nearly 90% of foreign-funded industrial enterprises have established R&D institutions, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [1][2] Case Study: Nexteer Automotive Systems - Nexteer Automotive Systems (Suzhou) has evolved from a production facility to a global innovation center, establishing a full-cycle innovation capability from concept design to intelligent manufacturing [2][5] - The company has applied for and authorized 20 invention patents and has participated in the formulation and revision of national standards, showcasing its role in driving technological advancements [2][5] Strategic Developments - The establishment of the Asia-Pacific Intelligent Manufacturing Headquarters in Suzhou, with an investment of 1 billion yuan, aims to enhance production capacity and drive technological innovation [3][6] - Nexteer has maintained a consistent R&D investment ratio of over 6%, focusing on electric power steering and next-generation steering systems [5][6] Innovation Ecosystem - The establishment of the "Nexteer Motion Control Technology Research Institute" in Suzhou is a significant milestone, receiving 10 million yuan in special funding to foster innovation and collaboration [11][12] - The company is building an innovation ecosystem by collaborating with automotive manufacturers, universities, and research institutions to accelerate the development of new technologies [12] Market Dynamics - The shift in foreign enterprises' investment logic in China is moving from market-driven and cost-driven to innovation-driven, with local talent becoming the main force in R&D [7][8] - The rapid evolution of the Chinese automotive market, characterized by diverse demands and fast iteration, is driving Nexteer's R&D focus towards electric and intelligent vehicle technologies [11][12] Future Outlook - By 2026, Nexteer aims to leverage its strong industrial foundation and innovation resources in Suzhou to enhance global collaboration and accelerate the transformation of R&D achievements [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant investment activity by Goldman Sachs and UBS in the autonomous driving sector, particularly focusing on small-cap stocks that have shown remarkable performance, such as Xingwang Yuda, which reported a 260% increase in net profit [1][12]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Foreign investors are shifting their strategies from traditional value investments to speculative plays, with UBS capturing 21 doubling stocks in 2025, including a stock that surged nearly 20 times [2]. - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are collaborating to target the smart driving industry, investing in companies like Luochang Technology and Yinzhijie, despite their losses [2][7]. Group 2: Small-Cap Stock Dynamics - Companies with a market capitalization below 3 billion require only tens of millions to become major shareholders, allowing institutions to significantly influence stock prices [4]. - The leverage effect of small-cap stocks is being utilized by foreign investors, who can achieve substantial price increases with minimal capital [5]. Group 3: Performance and Valuation - Despite some companies reporting losses, such as Leirwei and Wanlong Optoelectronics, foreign investors continue to increase their stakes, indicating a focus on technological scarcity rather than immediate profitability [7]. - Zhejiang Shibao is highlighted for its line control steering system, which is expected to be mass-produced by 2026, making it a critical component for L3-level autonomous driving [8][10]. Group 4: Regulatory Timing and Market Positioning - Foreign investors have strategically positioned themselves ahead of the regulatory approval for L3-level autonomous driving vehicles, which is set to take effect in December 2025 [12]. - The collective actions of these investors are based on a global research network that allows them to capitalize on emerging trends before they become mainstream [12]. Group 5: Niche Market Opportunities - Companies with regional monopolies or unique technologies, such as Yuhang Energy and Nullmax, are being targeted by foreign investors for their essential roles in the supply chain [14]. - The investments reflect a broader strategy of using small amounts of capital to bet on significant trends across the entire industry chain [14].

Industry Overview - EPS (Electric Power Steering) systems have become the mainstream design solution for automotive steering, replacing traditional hydraulic systems due to their high efficiency, safety, and environmental benefits [1][7] - The market size of China's EPS industry is projected to reach 38.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.81% [1][7] - The industry is experiencing a clear upgrade trend, with DP-EPS (Dual Pinion Electric Power Steering) and R-EPS (Rack Electric Power Steering) systems achieving higher transmission efficiency compared to traditional systems [1][7] Market Size - The EPS market in China is expected to grow to 40.8 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing demand for comfort and safety in vehicles [11] - The rapid development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is creating new opportunities for the EPS industry, as these vehicles require systems that can handle increased weight from battery packs [5][11] Key Companies - Leading companies in the EPS market include Bosch and Huayu Automotive, with domestic players like Nissin and Zhejiang Shibao gaining market share [8][9] - Zhejiang Shibao reported a revenue of 1.524 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.32%, with a net profit margin rising from 1.1% in 2022 to 5.5% in 2024 [9] - Bertli Automotive Safety Systems achieved a revenue of 5.164 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.04% [10] Industry Development Trends - Continuous technological innovation is driving the EPS industry towards higher efficiency and intelligence, with R-EPS and line-controlled steering systems (SBW) being key focus areas [11] - The industry is also seeing a push towards domestic production of core components, with local companies making significant technological advancements [11] - Environmental upgrades are being prioritized, with the adoption of recyclable materials and reduced emissions in production processes [12]

Core Insights - The automotive market is increasingly focusing on intelligent driving, with steer-by-wire (SBW) systems emerging as a key investment opportunity, particularly highlighted by Tesla's Cybercab model which eliminates mechanical connections [1][2] - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China support the development of L3 autonomous vehicles, paving the way for SBW systems and enhancing market expectations for the industry [1][3] Company Overview - The company, Nastec, specializes in steering systems, including electric power steering (EPS), hydraulic power steering (HPS), and SBW systems, holding a leading market position in EPS and SBW technologies [2] - SBW technology, which relies solely on electrical signals for steering control, is crucial for higher levels of automation in vehicles, particularly L3 and above [2] Market Position and Performance - Nastec is positioned as a top supplier in the SBW market, having secured its first SBW order in 2022 from Tesla and additional orders from domestic automakers, with plans to commence production in 2026 [3] - The company has a solid foundation in the EPS market, with a revenue of $1.525 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8.57% year-on-year growth, and contributing 68% to total revenue [4][8] Financial Stability - Nastec's major clients, including General Motors, contribute significantly to its revenue, with the top three clients accounting for 68.5% of total income [8] - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of the year was $230 million, with a profit margin of 10.26%, indicating a steady improvement in profitability [8] Industry Outlook - The SBW industry is expected to enter a commercial phase by 2025, with projections indicating that the domestic market could exceed 35 billion yuan and the global market could surpass 80 billion yuan by 2030 [9] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Nastec, with expectations of improved profitability and market share growth, particularly in the Chinese market [9][10] Future Growth Potential - By 2026, Nastec's revenue structure is anticipated to shift, with SBW contributing a significant portion, while maintaining a strong presence in the North American and Chinese markets [10] - The company's established product matrix and early mover advantage in SBW position it well for future growth, with a low valuation suggesting potential for market capitalization increase [10]

Core Insights - The automotive market is increasingly focusing on intelligent driving, with steer-by-wire (SBW) systems emerging as a key investment opportunity, particularly highlighted by Tesla's Cybercab model which eliminates mechanical connections [1][2] - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China support the development of intelligent connected vehicles, paving the way for L3-level autonomous driving and enhancing market expectations for SBW systems [1][5] - As a leading player in the SBW sector, the company has established orders with Tesla and several domestic automakers, with production and delivery expected in 2026, reflecting strong market demand [2][5] Company Overview - The company specializes in steering systems, including electric power steering (EPS), hydraulic power steering (HPS), and SBW systems, holding a leading market position in EPS and SBW technologies [2][5] - SBW technology, which eliminates the intermediate steering shaft, is crucial for higher levels of automation in driving, particularly L3 and above, where driver intervention is not required [2] Market Dynamics - The SBW industry is anticipated to enter a phase of large-scale production by the second half of 2025, with the company positioned as a top supplier benefiting from its technological advantages and production experience [5] - The company received its first SBW order in 2022 from Tesla and has since secured additional orders from domestic automakers, indicating a growing market presence [5][10] Financial Performance - The company's EPS segment generated $1.525 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.57% year-over-year increase, with a significant contribution from the North American and Asia-Pacific markets [6][9] - The company maintains a stable order target of $5 billion for the year, with a strong customer base including General Motors, which contributed 34.39% of revenue in the first half of the year [9] Future Outlook - The line control steering industry is expected to experience significant growth, with projections indicating that the domestic market could exceed 35 billion yuan by 2030, and the global market could surpass 80 billion yuan [10] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on the company, with expectations of improved profitability and market share growth, particularly in the U.S. and China [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Nexperia (01316) has increased by over 6%, currently trading at 7.24 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.52 billion HKD, following the announcement of a new government plan to boost the automotive industry [1] Group 1: Government Policy Impact - On September 13, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issued the "Automotive Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which aims to promote the industrial application of intelligent connected technology [1] - The plan includes advancing the approval and road testing of L3-level vehicles and improving legal regulations related to road traffic safety and insurance [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Steer-by-wire (SBW) technology is closely related to advanced autonomous driving and can significantly enhance driving safety and comfort [1] - According to Tianfeng Securities, as the penetration rate of L3-level and above autonomous driving increases, the penetration rate of SBW systems is expected to rise correspondingly [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for SBW technology is currently favorable, with only Nexperia, Bosch, and ZF achieving mass production of steer-by-wire systems [1] - Nexperia holds over 50% of the global market share for steer-by-wire systems [1]