参考消息网1月6日报道香港亚洲时报网站近日刊发题为《中国主导全球出版业的宏伟计划》的文章，作 者是马来西亚理科大学出版社主编祖尔基夫利·穆萨。全文摘编如下： 如果当前趋势能够持续，中国有望在未来十年内成为全球出版业极具影响力的力量。中国在这一领域的 崛起得益于国内市场的增长、重点突出的扩张战略、学术出版领域的快速发展以及对数字技术的及早应 用。这一转变将影响全球读者的阅读内容与阅读方式。 拥抱数字时代 中国的图书出版市场已是全球最大图书出版市场之一。数以亿计的活跃读者，加之不断增长的可支配收 入，推高了对纸质书和电子书两种形态的需求。 当当网、京东图书等平台持续扩充书目，有声书和移动阅读应用也获得广泛关注。实体书店仍能够与数 字阅读并行发展这一事实，彰显了该市场的广度与多样性。旺盛的消费需求为中国出版商提供了资金空 间，使其能够在出版样式、营销策略和新发行渠道方面进行尝试。这些条件让出版商得以测试并完善其 他市场难以推行的模式。未来十年，这种国内优势将进一步推动中国的内容出口，增强其对全球趋势的 影响力。 尽管该市场面临一些挑战，例如激烈的价格战以及人口结构变化导致童书领域增长放缓，但其创新能力 依然强劲。 ...

宋强中国出版传媒商报社执行董事（社长）、党委书记、总编辑 2025年的出版业很艰难，这是很多从业者的直观感受。实际情况确实如此，我们面临着外部环境的巨大挑战，也面临着内部调整、应对能力提升的压力。 从外部看，数字阅读的浪潮持续冲击着传统纸质出版的市场份额，用户阅读、购买习惯的快速变迁让实体书店的生存空间不断被压缩，线上电子书平台的 低价策略和便捷获取方式，进一步分流了潜在的纸质书消费者。同时，新兴的自媒体内容创作形式层出不穷，短视频、播客、知识付费课程等以更碎片 化、娱乐化的方式抢占用户注意力，使得传统出版物在内容传播上的竞争力面临严峻考验。此外，全球经济环境的不确定性也影响了大众的文化消费意 愿，出版行业作为文化产业的一部分，不可避免地受到整体消费市场低迷的影响，图书销售增长乏力，库存压力逐渐增大。 对内部而言，部分出版社在新媒体时代的品牌建设和读者服务方面意识薄弱，未能与读者建立起紧密的情感连接和互动关系，导致读者黏性不高，在激烈 的市场竞争中难以形成稳定的用户群体。这些内外部的重重困境，让2025年的出版业倍感压力，也为2026年蒙上了一层迷雾，行业究竟该走向何方，成为 每一个出版人不得不深入思考的问题 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting new technologies and platforms for reading in the digital age, as highlighted by the recently released "National Reading Promotion Regulations" [1] Group 1: Digital Reading Trends - The comprehensive reading rate in China has increased from 76.3% in 2012 to 82.1% in 2024, driven by new technologies [1] - New reading formats, such as e-books and audiobooks, are making reading more accessible and enjoyable for a wider audience [1] Group 2: Targeted Development of New Platforms - Reading platforms should develop new carriers tailored to different reader demographics, such as interactive visual and audio content for youth [2] - For elderly readers, reading devices need to incorporate features like enlarged text and voice control to bridge the digital divide [2] Group 3: Service Optimization and Accessibility - There is a need for a human-centered reading service system that coordinates hardware and software improvements, enhancing the usability of reading facilities [3] - Localized reading facilities, such as mobile libraries, should be developed to reflect regional cultural characteristics and promote cultural exchange [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese knowledge payment industry is entering a golden development period, with a market size expected to reach 120 billion yuan in 2024 and over 300 million users, projected to exceed 350 billion yuan by 2030, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 15%-20% [1][2] - The rapid growth is driven by strong user demand for high-quality, systematic knowledge content, along with technological innovation and policy support [1] - The user demographic is primarily aged 18 to 40, with a significant portion being professionals aged 25 to 35, and over 60% holding a bachelor's degree or higher [1][2] Industry Overview - The knowledge payment industry encompasses a wide range of content forms, including online courses, e-books, and exclusive content, catering to various needs such as professional development and personal interests [11][12] - The industry is characterized by a shift from traditional education to digital formats, significantly shortening the knowledge dissemination chain [14][15] Market Size and Growth - The market size for knowledge payment is projected to reach 120 billion yuan in 2024, with a penetration rate of 15%, and is expected to grow to over 350 billion yuan by 2030 [23][27] - The growth is fueled by increasing user willingness to pay, particularly in second and third-tier cities, and a shift towards more specialized and high-quality content [27][28] User Demographics and Behavior - Knowledge payment users are predominantly aged 18 to 40, with a balanced gender distribution, slightly favoring females [35][37] - Users exhibit diverse payment behaviors, often opting for single-session courses or specialized content, with a strong preference for high-quality content and instructor influence [38][39] Competitive Landscape - The industry is becoming increasingly concentrated, with leading platforms like Ximalaya, Zhihu, and NetEase Cloud Classroom capturing over 70% of the market share [1][49] - Emerging companies are carving out niches through vertical segmentation and innovative community operations, although challenges such as content homogenization and copyright disputes persist [1][54] Technological Impact - Technology is reshaping the industry, with AI enabling personalized recommendations, big data capturing user needs, and VR/AR creating immersive learning experiences [2][67] - The integration of knowledge payment with educational technology and cross-industry collaboration is expected to create a new ecosystem of knowledge services [2][68]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving definition of reading, particularly the growing acceptance of audiobooks as a legitimate form of reading, contrasting traditional reading methods with auditory experiences [1][2][3]. Group 1: Changing Perceptions of Reading - A recent NPR and Ipsos poll indicates that 41% of American adults believe audiobooks do not count as reading [1]. - The decline in traditional reading is highlighted, with a study showing that daily leisure reading time for American adults has decreased by over 40% in the past 20 years [2]. - The rise of audiobooks is significant, with sales reaching approximately $2.2 billion last year, and a 65% increase in audiobook borrowing over the past five years [2]. Group 2: Cognitive Processing of Reading - Research from UC Berkeley suggests that the brain processes meaning similarly whether reading or listening, activating the same neural networks [2]. - Focused listening can achieve comprehension levels comparable to reading physical books, especially benefiting individuals with reading disabilities [3]. - Combining physical reading with audiobook listening can enhance comprehension for some readers, particularly those facing reading challenges [3]. Group 3: Personal Experience and Adaptation - The author shares a transformative experience with audiobooks, discovering a new way to engage with literature that enhances focus and enjoyment [4]. - The integration of text-to-speech technology allows for a more immersive reading experience, blending auditory and visual elements [4]. - The author emphasizes the importance of enjoying the reading process itself, regardless of the format [4].

Core Insights - The trend of knowledge payment is increasingly recognized by young people in China, with 86.4% of surveyed youth having experience in purchasing knowledge-based products [1][4] Group 1: Knowledge Payment Products - Audio and video courses are the most purchased knowledge payment products, with 52.2% of respondents having bought them [3] - Subscription-based memberships were purchased by 49.9% of respondents, while 40.9% bought e-books, papers, or professional reports [3] - Other popular products include online live broadcasts and series lectures (34.5%), paid Q&A and consulting (31.9%), content tipping (19.3%), and paid communities (13.5%) [3] Group 2: Spending Habits - 41.6% of respondents are willing to spend between 101-500 yuan annually on knowledge payment products, while 24.2% are willing to spend 501-1000 yuan [5] - 23.8% of respondents can accept spending 100 yuan or less, and 7.9% are willing to spend between 1001-3000 yuan [5] - A small percentage, 2.5%, are willing to spend over 3000 yuan annually [5] Group 3: Motivations for Knowledge Payment - The primary motivation for purchasing knowledge payment products is personal interest (57.3%), followed by work and academic needs (53.7%) [5] - Other reasons include professional skill enhancement (49.9%), solving specific life problems (33.9%), and supporting creators (22.6%) [5] - The rise of knowledge payment may be linked to information overload, as users seek to filter out low-quality content through paid options [5]

Core Viewpoint - The publishing sub-sector exhibits high dividend attributes and stability within the media sector, with leading companies showing gross margins between 30%-40%, net margins around 10%, and ROE generally above 8% [1] Group 1: Publishing Sector Overview - The publishing sector is characterized by a clear competitive landscape, with at least one publishing group in each province, focusing on both publishing and distribution, including textbooks and supplementary materials as key business areas [1] - The stock price changes in the publishing sub-sector in 2023 are attributed to a market consensus on valuation reassessment, as the content copyrights of publishing companies serve as important sources for data corpus in the context of AI developments [1] - In 2024, the market shows a preference for high-dividend sectors, with leading companies in the publishing sector having relatively high dividend yields compared to the media sector [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Xinhua Wenhui - Xinhua Wenhui is one of the largest leading companies in the publishing sector, demonstrating outstanding management and operational capabilities [2] - The company's management capabilities are evident in its integrated supply chain services, focusing on both demand and supply-side management, and enhancing content production quality and efficiency [2] - Operational capabilities include developing new growth points through store adjustments and online-offline integration to mitigate external risks, as well as optimizing product structure in response to educational policy changes [2] Group 3: Business Segments - The company has a stable development across various business segments, including 15 publishing media units covering books, periodicals, audio-visual, electronic, and online categories [2] - In reading services, the company operates 181 retail stores in Sichuan Province and has established a multi-scenario online and offline reading service system [2] - The education service network consists of 152 subsidiaries covering Sichuan Province, with clear division of responsibilities between headquarters and subsidiaries [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.681 billion, 1.779 billion, and 1.910 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 10 times [3] - The company is rated as "recommended" for its strong management and operational capabilities, which are expected to drive steady growth across its business segments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for reading among young people is still strong, as evidenced by the bustling atmosphere at the Beijing Book Fair, which showcases a vibrant community of readers [1][2]. Group 1: Reading Trends - Young readers have access to a wider range of reading resources, making it easier to find and borrow books [1]. - There is a shift towards diverse reading methods, including e-books and audiobooks, alongside traditional paper books [1]. - The presence of reading communities, both online and offline, encourages social interaction and shared reading experiences [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Reading - Many young people face difficulties in finding time to read due to busy schedules and distractions from electronic devices [2]. - A survey indicates that attention span issues and the tendency to abandon reading are common challenges among youth [2]. - The fast-paced digital age makes it harder for individuals to dedicate time to deep reading and reflection [2]. Group 3: Encouraging Reading Habits - Initiatives such as book donations to students and reading awards in universities aim to foster a culture of reading [2]. - Creating a supportive environment for reading can help young people recognize the value of books [2]. - Emphasizing the importance of a calm mindset is crucial for developing a consistent reading habit [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, CITIC Publishing, emphasizes its commitment to promoting global cultural exchange and aims to enhance its international presence through strategic partnerships and copyright exports [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus - CITIC Publishing focuses on key themes such as international dynamics, business civilization, and technological innovation [1] - The company aims to attract top thinkers, including Nobel laureates in economics and global business leaders, to enhance its intellectual capital [1] Group 2: Global Partnerships - Over the past decade, CITIC Publishing has established deep collaborations with over a thousand renowned publishers worldwide [1] - The company has successfully exported more than 2,600 book copyrights to over 40 countries, including the UK, US, France, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Italy, and regions in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [1] Group 3: Copyright Export - CITIC Publishing exports around 400 various types of copyrights annually, including e-books, audiobooks, and printed books [1] Group 4: Future Initiatives - The company plans to explore new models of cultural trade, enhance the digitalization of trade, and improve its data governance system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The survival of independent bookstores is increasingly threatened by the rise of e-commerce and digital reading platforms, despite their cultural significance and the ongoing demand for physical books [1][3][30]. Industry Overview - As of 2024, there are 269,000 publishing distribution points in China, with a total sales volume of 524 billion yuan, indicating that two-thirds of retail sales still come from physical bookstores [1]. - The independent bookstore sector is experiencing a polarization, with the Xinhua Bookstore system accounting for only 1.5% of distribution units but generating 35.5% of sales [1]. Challenges Faced - Independent bookstores are under pressure from both large chain bookstores and e-commerce platforms, with the latter posing a more significant threat due to their extensive reach and pricing strategies [5][7]. - The emergence of Amazon in 1995 led to a 43% decline in the number of independent bookstores shortly after its launch, highlighting the disruptive impact of e-commerce on traditional retail [7][12]. Resilience and Recovery - Despite the challenges, independent bookstores in the U.S. have shown resilience, with a 49% increase in their numbers from 2009 to 2018, and a projected growth of 18% in 2025 [12][24]. - The concept of "organizational emplacement" has been identified as a key strategy for independent bookstores to differentiate themselves and compete against digital threats [11][14]. Strategies for Survival - Independent bookstores are focusing on creating unique physical spaces that foster community engagement, offering curated experiences that cannot be replicated by online platforms [14][15][19]. - They are also leveraging local community ties by hosting events and activities that attract customers and build a loyal customer base [18][19]. Community and Cultural Impact - The revival of independent bookstores emphasizes the importance of local culture and community identity, as they serve as anchors of authenticity within their neighborhoods [19][20]. - The integration of social media and community outreach has become essential for independent bookstores to maintain relevance and foster connections with their customers [19][24]. Future Outlook - The future of independent bookstores is seen as promising, provided they continue to innovate and adapt to the changing retail landscape, supported by community engagement and government initiatives [30][31].