研究品种:沪镇 图 1：沪镍主力合约收盘价走势 来源：文华财经 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期: 20251009 报告周期：日度 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号 (F03122015&Z0019820) 期货日报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20251009）国庆中秋长假后首个交易日，内盘基本金属 迎来全面上涨行情。沪镍主力 2511 合约日内表现强势，开盘后一路 震荡上行，日线呈大阳线，报收 124480 元/吨。 1.2 期货行情数据 | 表 1: 沪镍期货行情表 20251009 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨 幅% | 成交量 | 振幅% | 持仓 量 | 日増仓 | | 沪镇 2511 | 12448 | 2900 | 2.39 | 13086 | 1.31 | 86038 | 9898 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, the impact of macro - events has basically subsided, nickel prices have returned to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and an unchanged oversupply pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel variety, with eleven consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, the downside space for stainless - steel prices is limited. However, the overall demand recovery is not obvious, and it is expected to show an interval oscillation trend [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 66,099 (+3,446) lots, and the open interest was 45,068 (-5,353) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated slightly around the previous trading day's settlement price. After the day - session opening, stimulated by the news of continued national subsidies over the weekend, it rose slightly to the daily high of 122,110 yuan/ton but then quickly declined, and finally closed with a slight increase of 80 yuan [1] - **Nickel Ore**: A new round of quotations in the nickel ore market has been released. The FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine is 31. Affected by typhoon weather, nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas is blocked. Philippine mines maintain firm quotations. In the shipping aspect, mines in areas like Surigao are not affected. Downstream iron plants are still making losses and maintain a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market remains in a pattern of continuous supply surplus. The domestic trade benchmark price in September (Phase II) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is currently at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed. The spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of various brands are slightly adjusted stably, and some delivery brands show a slight discount. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel remains unchanged at 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains unchanged at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,536 (-307) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,900 (+456) tons [2] Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly interval operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 138,615 (+21,690) lots, and the open interest was 130,017 (-4,171) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated upward. In the day - session, it further rose close to 13,000 yuan/ton and then slightly declined. The closing price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. Overall, the restart of national subsidies in China has improved the demand expectation for stainless steel, resulting in a relatively strong price trend today [3] - **Spot**: It is currently the traditional consumption peak season, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel has slightly recovered. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand is not obvious, and the monthly stainless - steel production has also increased simultaneously, resulting in the spot price not showing an obvious upward trend. Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the market is filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 340 to 640 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising material costs, and news - based stimulation. Future attention should be paid to the demand during the consumption peak season [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 123,210 yuan/ton and closed at 122,530 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 128,782 lots, and the open interest was 90,762 lots [1] - In the futures market, affected by the Indonesian event, the Shanghai nickel main contract continued to rise after the night - session opening, reaching a maximum of 123,810 yuan/ton, then fell back and fluctuated around 123,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, it dropped rapidly after the day - session opening, rebounded later, and dived again at the end of the session [1] - The price of nickel ore remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was acceptable. The bullish sentiment of downstream ferronickel strengthened. In Indonesia, the supply was relatively loose, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase I) decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars [1] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was acceptable, and the premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable [2] - **Strategy** - For the short - term, nickel prices will mainly fluctuate, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,629 lots, and the open interest was 91,035 lots [3] - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract continued to strengthen after the night - session opening and fluctuated slightly between 123,005 - 123,020 yuan/ton. After the day - session opening, affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel, the price slightly declined but still maintained a high - level fluctuating trend, with an amplitude of less than 100 yuan/ton throughout the day [3] - In the spot market, driven by the futures market, the list prices of large stainless steel manufacturers increased, and the market quotes followed suit. However, the downstream acceptance was low, and the actual trading was relatively sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 305 to 605 yuan/ton [3] - **Strategy** - The stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4][5]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 120,010 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 90,715 lots and an open interest of 102,385 lots [1]. - In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,430 yuan/ton, then quickly rose to 121,080 yuan/ton, but then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 119,620 yuan/ton and finally closing at 120,060 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots. The daily session opened at 120,010 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 119,780 - 120,590 yuan/ton, and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 90,715 lots. The LME nickel price fell to 15,050 US dollars/ton during the daily session, intensifying the bearish sentiment in the domestic market [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises slightly improved. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588 (29.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 209,598 (252) tons [3]. Strategy - The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The production capacity of nickel intermediate products continues to be released, and the price of the ore end is loosening. In the short term, the nickel price will mainly fluctuate and move closer to the cost below. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 99,736 lots and an open interest of 138,810 lots [4]. - In the night session, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,870 yuan/ton, rose to 12,895 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 12,765 yuan/ton and finally closing at 12,820 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots. The daily session opened at 12,830 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 12,785 - 12,860 yuan/ton, and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 99,736 lots. The spot market prices in Wuxi and Foshan were 13,050 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 928.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, demand is weak, and affected by macro news, it is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in a range in the near future. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Views - In the short - term, Shanghai nickel may continue its weak and volatile trend. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices, limiting the upside space of nickel prices [3] - In the short - term, stainless steel may also continue its weak and volatile trend. In the long - term, the increase in the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore and the upward shift of stainless steel cost support may limit the decline, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making it difficult for stainless steel prices to break through [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,700 yuan/ton and closed at 121,200 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 102,257 lots, and the open interest was 66,437 lots. Night - trading showed limited capital participation and a wait - and - see attitude. Day - trading saw short - position funds actively increasing positions, and market sentiment turned pessimistic [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, with prices stable. Sea freight slightly increased due to weather and shipping capacity. In the Philippines, mines were reluctant to lower prices. In Indonesia, the August (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to drop slightly, and some iron plants were bearish on the premium [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel improved slightly, with changes in premiums for different types of nickel [2] Strategy - Short - term: Shanghai nickel may continue its weak and volatile trend. Long - term: The oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the upside space of nickel prices is limited. Unilateral strategy: mainly range - bound operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,175 yuan/ton and closed at 13,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 160,562 lots, and the open interest was 135,237 lots. Night - trading showed limited capital participation and a wait - and - see attitude. Day - trading saw short - position funds actively increasing positions, and market sentiment turned pessimistic [3][4] - After the stainless steel futures price rose earlier in the week, the spot price increased, but downstream acceptance was poor. As the futures price fell, the spot price also dropped due to the pressure of sales [4] Strategy - Short - term: Stainless steel may continue its weak and volatile trend. Long - term: The increase in the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore and the upward shift of cost support may limit the decline, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and prices are difficult to break through. Unilateral strategy: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile market, influenced more by macro - emotions, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range and run relatively strongly in the near future, as the continuous stimulus of recent macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market to some extent, alleviating the previous pessimistic sentiment [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,020 yuan/ton and closed at 122,440 yuan/ton, a change of 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 96,355 lots, and the open interest was 73,889 lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly after a low - open in the night session, maintained a volatile trend after reaching a high and declined slightly. It maintained a strong volatile trend after the opening of the day session and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest continued to decrease slightly. The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong intention to hold prices, and downstream iron plants' pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly +24, flat month - on - month. The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 124,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum slowed down slightly. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, and spot trading did not improve. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,693 (- 30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,746 (+450) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly operate within the range for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,150 yuan/ton and closed at 13,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,429 lots, and the open interest was 143,674 lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a volatile trend, continued the trend after the opening of the day session, and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The market supply of stainless steel was in short supply, traders had a clear intention to hold prices, and with the continuous stimulus of macro - policy news, the spot price of stainless steel further increased. However, downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high - priced goods, resulting in intense market gaming and poor trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium or discount was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [2] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, short - term macro sentiment has pushed up nickel prices. For the stainless steel variety, the pressure of nickel - iron surplus still exists, and the retail price of ferro - chrome is strongly stable. The social inventory of stainless steel has been decreasing. Recent continuous stimulation from macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market, and it is expected that the stainless steel price will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,130 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 112,549 lots, and the open interest was 77,193 lots. The night session opened slightly lower, then rose slightly, fell back after reaching a high, and oscillated slightly. The day session continued to rise and stood firm at the high of 122,000 yuan in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [1] - **Nickel Ore**: In the Philippines, there was sporadic rainfall across the country, but the overall weather and sea conditions were better than the previous week. It is expected that in the third quarter, the impact of precipitation in the main producing areas will be limited, the shipping volume will remain at a high level, and the port arrival volume of ore will continue to increase with sufficient supply. Mines are mostly in the stage of fulfilling contracts and loading ships. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, the nickel ore supply is loose, and the price has slightly increased. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium was mainly +24 in August (Phase I), unchanged from the previous period, with a range of +23 - 25 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot transaction of refined nickel was generally average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,723 (102.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (- 936) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,045 yuan/ton and closed at 13,225 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 202,613 lots, and the open interest was 135,260 lots. The night session oscillated strongly, and the day session continued to rise, closing with a positive line. Both the trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous trading day [3] - **Spot**: Boosted by the sharp rise in the SS futures market, the confidence of spot traders to be bullish has been significantly enhanced, and the quotes have increased accordingly. Small - scale traders started to replenish stocks, and the daily orders were acceptable. However, affected by the rapid price increase, some agents temporarily stopped accepting futures orders. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,200 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,200 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 919.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the current oversupply situation of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near future [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support for stainless steel. But downstream rigid - demand orders are few, and spot trading is weak, lacking impetus for price increase. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On August 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,500 yuan/ton and closed at 121,070 yuan/ton, a change of 0.22% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 87,840 lots, and the open interest was 86,052 lots [1]. - The night session of the main Shanghai nickel contract opened slightly lower, then fell rapidly, and then oscillated higher. The day session rushed up and then fell back, closing slightly higher in the afternoon with a medium - sized positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [2]. - In the Philippines, mines are mostly in the shipping stage. Downstream domestic iron plants mostly reduce production loads, and raw material procurement remains cautious. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, nickel - mine mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel - mine market has weakened. In August (Phase I), the domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars; the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) is mainly +24, flat compared with the previous period, in the range of +23 - 25 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream market brands also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the disk oscillated strongly, and the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Most of the spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,789 (- 134.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,452 (198) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On August 6, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,950 yuan/ton and closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 82,019 lots, and the open interest was 84,046 lots [3]. - The night session of the main stainless - steel contract opened slightly lower, then fell rapidly, and then oscillated back up after getting support. The day session rushed up but was blocked and then oscillated horizontally, closing with a negative doji. The trading volume increased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - In the spot market, the futures disk oscillated horizontally, and the spot price changed little. Purchasers hoped to buy at low prices, while agents were reluctant to reduce prices for shipment, and the overall trading situation was average. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 160 to 360 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 918.0 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Group 1: Metal Price Changes on August 6, 2025 - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 78,350, down 265; SMM flat - copper premium was 65, down 45 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price was 20,630, up 110; SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 40, unchanged [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) price was 3240, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price was 375 dollars, unchanged [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 16,725, up 125; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was - 80, down 50 [1] - Recycled refined aluminum average price was 16,750, up 150; refined - scrap price difference was - 25, down 25 [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22,330, up 30; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was 5, down 30 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price was 267,600, up 600; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was 570, up 20 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price was 255,600, up 600; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio was 95.52% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price was 121,300, up 200; 1 imported nickel premium to SHFE nickel contract average price was 350, unchanged [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,200, up 200; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to SHFE nickel contract average price was 2250, unchanged [1] - Oxygen - passed 553 (Xinjiang) average price (with 800 regional discount and 200 quality impurity removal) was 9550, unchanged; 553 spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was 1000, down 180 [1] - 421 silicon (Kunming) average price was 10,000, unchanged; polysilicon dense material average price was 0; granular silicon average price was 0; N - type polysilicon material average price was 47 [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 70,950, down 250; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was 2690, up 1130 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 68,850, up 2100; refined - industrial lithium carbonate price difference was 0 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Xiao Jing, Chief Analyst, studies copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] - Wu Jiang, Senior Analyst, studies nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1] - Sun Fangfang, Intermediate Analyst, studies aluminum and zinc, with qualification number F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1] - Zhang Xiurui, Intermediate Analyst, studies industrial silicon, with qualification number F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. Due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, price increases lack momentum. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range with a slight upward bias in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,630 yuan/ton and closed at 120,910 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84,818 lots, and the open interest was 90,543 lots. Philippine mines are in the shipping stage, while domestic iron plants are reducing production loads and being cautious in raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (first phase) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium remained flat. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel was raised by about 500 yuan/ton, and the premiums of refined nickel were mostly stable, but spot trading became lighter. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,923 (- 247.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 211,254 (2172) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: In the near term, trade within the range for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,845 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 79,826 lots, and the open interest was 85,949 lots. The US may impose new tariffs, and China will resume levying VAT on the interest income of certain bonds from August 8, 2025. In the spot market, the futures price oscillated upward, but the spot price changed little. After rigid - demand restocking, market trading declined, and the overall trading was average. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 95 - 295 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 916.0 yuan/nickel point [2]. - **Strategy**: The single - side trading strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3].