新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 有色板块集体走高，镍价维持反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2026-01-05日沪镍主力合约2602开于135000元/吨，收于134100元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.57%，当日成交量为 366893（-774634）手，持仓量为134729（1934）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高位震荡态势，反映出市场在供应收缩预期与需求淡季现实之间的博弈加剧。 当前价格反弹更多是资金情绪与政策预期博弈的结果，而非供需结构实质改善，投资者需警惕政策预期变化带来 的价格波动风险。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场交投氛围较为平静，市场镍矿资源有限，镍矿价格暂稳运行。菲律宾方面， 多待北部矿山新一轮招标，矿山多看涨预期。装船出货方面，降雨量增加，效率有一定迟滞。印尼方面，2026年1 月(一期)内贸基准价上涨0.05-0.08美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格142200元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨1100元/吨。现货交投尚可，金川镍现货 偏紧，各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水稳中有跌。其中金川镍升 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View **Likely Positive Factors** - Domestic factories are stocking up before the Chinese New Year, leading to a slight recovery in demand [3]. - The premium of Jinchuan nickel has narrowed to 4,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount has remained stable [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - High inventory levels persist, and the supply glut remains unchanged [3]. - There are few inquiries in the nickel ore market, demand is sluggish, and prices have stabilized without a clear upward trend [3]. **Trading Advisory View** - It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the short - term impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Data** **Nickel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel (SHFE) was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 2,160 yuan or 1.83% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,920 yuan or 1.63% week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 116,060 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 116,290 yuan/ton, down 1,910 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week [3]. - LME nickel 3M was at 14,610 US dollars/ton, down 360 US dollars or 1.62% week - on - week [3]. - The open interest was 106,302 lots, down 5,283 lots or 4.7% week - on - week; the trading volume was 106,815 lots, down 17,698 lots or 14.21% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 33,939 tons, down 825 tons or 2.37% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan or - 373.33% week - on - week [3]. **Stainless Steel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 12,625 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.28% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 12,695 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan or 0.36% week - on - week [4]. - The trading volume was 69,415 lots, down 32,225 lots or 31.71% week - on - week; the open interest was 64,258 lots, down 21,427 lots or 25.01% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 61,378 tons, down 241 tons or 0.39% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 570 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 21.28% week - on - week [4]. **Nickel Spot** - Jinchuan nickel was at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.21% day - on - day; imported nickel was at 116,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day; 1 electrolytic nickel was at 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; nickel beans were at 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; electrowon nickel was at 116,450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day [4]. **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory was 56,848 tons, up 1,499 tons; LME nickel inventory was 252,852 tons, down 240 tons; stainless steel social inventory was 947,600 tons, up 700 tons; nickel pig iron inventory was 29,346 tons, down 879 tons [6]. **3.2 Market Trends and Charts** - The report includes charts showing the historical trends of nickel futures prices (both domestic and LME), stainless steel futures prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel supply and inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profitability, and stainless steel production and inventory [7][9][11]. **3.3 Industry Chain Analysis** **Upstream Nickel Ore** - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB) is presented in a historical trend chart, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports is also shown [16]. - The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average landed duty - paid price of Indonesian nickel pig iron (Ni≥14%) are presented in historical trend charts [17]. - The seasonal production volume of nickel iron in China and Indonesia is shown in charts [18][19]. **Downstream Nickel Sulfate** - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, the profitability of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profitability of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate are presented in historical trend charts [21][23][24]. - The monthly production volume of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown in charts [25]. **Stainless Steel** - The seasonal profitability of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production volume, and inventory are presented in historical trend charts [27][29][30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][4] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,970 yuan/ton and closed at 115,870 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 106,815 (-13,204) lots, and the open interest was 106,302 (+3,719) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high, then moving low, and closing weakly, in an overall weakly oscillating pattern, affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - economics [1] Fundamental - The current pattern of nickel supply surplus remains unchanged. Although refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the production of primary nickel in December increased month - on - month, and the reduction in refined nickel production in November was lower than expected, having a limited marginal impact on the market supply - demand balance sheet [1] Macro - The Fed cut interest rates in December, but subsequent statements were hawkish, and the previous positive factors have basically been reflected in the market [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market was calm, with prices stable. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and their price - holding mentality recovered. As downstream ferronickel prices rebounded and domestic factories needed to stock up before the Spring Festival, the mentality of pressing down prices for nickel ore purchases may ease. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market showed no obvious improvement, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 5,100 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,939 (-296) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,852 (-240) tons [2] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,550 yuan/ton and closed at 12,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,489 (+3,558) lots, and the open interest was 103,523 (-4,171) lots. After the contract changed to 2602, it continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a narrow - range weakly oscillating pattern and closing slightly lower. Technically, the price closed below the 5 - day moving average, remaining in a short - term weak pattern, but there was strong support around 12,400 yuan/ton [3] Spot - Downstream buyers remained cautious, and trading did not improve. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 195 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 888.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,920 yuan/ton and closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,221 (-79,345) lots, and the open interest was 127,765 (-503) lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a slight oscillating downward trend, failing to continue the rebound of the previous few days. The price closed below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, with a bearish technical outlook. After the macro - positive sentiment faded, the nickel price returned to the fundamental market [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders for shipment, and the shipping efficiency was okay. The downstream ferronickel price was weak, and the iron - making plants' profits were affected. They were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, and some plants had the intention to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (phase one) was expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade premium was in the range of +25 - 26, and there was room for it to decline due to the falling ferronickel price [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The overall spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were adjusted downwards. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained at 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,548 (-396) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,450 (+930) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - With high inventories and an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, the nickel price was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was to focus on range trading, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless steel opened at 12,435 yuan/ton and closed at 12,410 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,697 (-24,902) lots, and the open interest was 122,062 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract showed a slight oscillating downward trend, and its price movement basically followed that of Shanghai nickel. The stainless - steel fundamentals were still weak. The social inventory increased this week, rising 0.64% compared to last week to 946,000 tons. After the macro - positive factors were exhausted, the price was expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [3]. - Earlier this week, the trading volume improved due to the price rebound, but it weakened again yesterday when the price dropped. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 325 - 525 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 883.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was neutral, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, as the current price has reached a 5 - year low, the downward space is relatively limited [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously decreasing cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. Considering the current price is at a historical low, further decline is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,880 yuan/ton and closed at 116,160 yuan/ton, a 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,438 (-32,096) lots, and the open interest was 141,215 (-6,339) lots. The contract continued to rebound and closed slightly higher, but the trading volume decreased, indicating market hesitation. Macro factors such as positive signals from China - US leadership communication and dovish signals from Fed officials supported nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments are unstable, and the latest tender prices have slightly declined but remain high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price has dropped to 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch), leading to a lack of market confidence. Iron plants' profits are affected, and they are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 121,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,070 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to previous price drops and production cuts by some enterprises, spot supply has tightened, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 4,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,785 (-294) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (0) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,405 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,286 (+2,692) lots, and the open interest was 147,237 (-4,171) lots. The contract rose slightly, basically following the trend of Shanghai nickel. The trading volume increased slightly, and market activity improved. Macro factors such as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and China's issuance of 1 trillion yuan in national bonds and early release of local bond quotas boosted market confidence and stainless - steel prices [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market has recovered, with some purchasing demand released and increased market transactions. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,625 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,650 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 340 - 490 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel price is technically rebounding but remains under short - term pressure. Due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The stainless steel market is also facing weak demand and high inventory, and is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, a 0.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,534 (+10,331) lots, and the open interest was 147,554 (-13,106) lots. The rise was a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. The dovish Fed statement increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving up metal futures. However, weak consumption and high global nickel inventory will suppress the nickel price in the long term [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments were unstable, and the latest tender prices declined slightly but remained high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price dropped to 880 yuan/(ex - ship, tax included), and iron plants' production enthusiasm was low. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and traders were cautious. The premiums of refined nickel brands were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,785 (-294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (-468) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventory and unchanged oversupply, the nickel price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,280 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,594 (-31,040) lots, and the open interest was 162,927 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a narrow - range weakening trend, with the price fluctuating between 12,265 - 12,385 yuan/ton. The short - side was dominant, and the market was bearish [3]. - **Spot**: In the off - season, stainless steel demand was weak, the market was pessimistic, prices were lowered, but transactions remained light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton and 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 335 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation due to high inventory and oversupply, and stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern because of weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 117,020 yuan/ton and closed at 116,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,806 (-15,915) lots, and the open interest was 107,341 (-4,908) lots. The price continued the downward trend after breaking through on November 14. The strengthening of the US dollar index and loose supply - demand relationship with rising inventory led to a clear short - term downward trend [1] - **Nickel Ore**: New tenders in the nickel ore market are about to be finalized, and the price is stable. In the Philippines, there are tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. The downstream nickel - iron price is falling, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore and want to lower the price. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,826 (799) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (5,604) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,113 (+17,461) lots, and the open interest was 172,728 (-4,171) lots. The price fluctuated at a low level, hovering around the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, with the short - term moving average system intertwined and the direction unclear. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and falling nickel prices, there was no sign of a price rebound [3] - **Spot**: The price continued to decline to a historical low, and the market inquiry heat increased. In the context of weak demand and falling raw material costs, steel mills were more willing to sell at low prices. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,750 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 380 - 580 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 902.5 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, but recent mining disruptions in Indonesia and the Philippines should be monitored for potential price rebounds [4] - For stainless steel, with the end of the consumption peak season, lower - than - expected demand growth, and weakening cost support, the stainless - steel price is expected to stay in low - level oscillations [5] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,670 yuan/ton and closed at 119,680 yuan/ton, a 0.01% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 82,864 (-9,186) lots, and the open interest was 117,784 (-4,095) lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a low - opening and high - walking oscillatory repair pattern. Affected by macro - sentiment and the metal sector, it rebounded during the day session and slightly closed up. The high - level oscillation of the US dollar index still suppresses nickel prices. The domestic commodity sector rose collectively, and Shanghai nickel rebounded accordingly [2] Nickel Ore - The nickel - ore market trading atmosphere was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and there was a supply - demand price gap. Factory procurement enthusiasm was low [2] - In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area's shipping efficiency was delayed due to continuous rainfall, while the northern mining area had stable local supply. Indonesian November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark prices are expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, with a current mainstream premium of +26 [2] - Due to the rainy season and typhoons, shipping in the southern Surigao area of the Philippines has stopped, and nickel - ore exports are expected to sharply decline from November to December [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premium of each brand did not change [3] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 600 yuan/ton to 3,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton [3] - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 32,533 (-101) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,404 (+300) tons [3] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [4] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,545 yuan/ton and closed at 12,605 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 100,514 (+26,181) lots, and the open interest was 46,429 (-4,171) lots [4] - The main contract of stainless steel showed an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. It rebounded in the afternoon driven by the rise of the black - metal sector [4] Spot - Affected by the futures' stop - falling and rebound, spot inquiries increased, but actual trading activity was still low, and quotes were basically flat [5] - The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 305 - 605 yuan/ton [5] - The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 914.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has an oversupply situation with high inventories, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply from the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [2]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, accumulating inventories, and weakening cost support, and the stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 120,800 yuan/ton and closed at 119,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.99% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 122,871 (+25,519) lots, and the open interest was 118,460 (9,789) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation trend due to macro - factors such as the rising US dollar index, the Fed's hawkish remarks, and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm, with stable prices. There was a supply - demand gap, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons may cause shipment delays. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,500 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot transaction was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 30,952 (-254) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the situation of price rebound needs attention due to the sharp reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,625 yuan/ton and closed at 12,545 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,422 (+3,760) lots, and the open interest was 76,075 (-4,171) lots. It showed a weak oscillation trend, similar to the Shanghai nickel trend, affected by macro - factors and the weakening nickel - iron price [2][3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous decline in futures prices, the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment increased, and the actual transaction was still weak. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets remained unchanged, and the high - nickel pig iron ex - factory tax - included average price decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].