新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 镍品种 市场分析 2025-11-24日沪镍主力合约2601开于114500元/吨，收于115530元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.64%，当日成交量为 148534（+10331）手，持仓量为147554（-13106）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约震荡走高，但上涨仅是对上周周线级别加速下行、周五收出光脚放量长阴线后的技 术性修复，而非趋势反转。宏观方面，美联储发言偏鸽派，降息预期提升，带动金属期货走强。基本面方面，消 费依然疲软，全球镍库存处于5年内高位，将长期压制镍价反弹。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场较为平静，价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面，北部矿山出货尚不稳定，矿 山最新招标价略有走跌，但价格依旧居高。下游镍铁成交价跌至880元/(舱底含税)，市场信心缺失。铁厂利润受挫， 生产积极性不高，对原料镍矿采购多观望心理。印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美元/吨，内贸升水 方面，当前主流升水维持+26，升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格120200元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨1550元/吨。下游企业 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-18 美元指数上行，压制镍不锈钢价格走势 镍品种 市场分析 2025-11-17日沪镍主力合约2512开于117020元/吨，收于116750元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.28%，当日成交量 为102806（-15915）手，持仓量为107341（-4908）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现明显弱势下行走势，价格延续11月14日破位后跌势。近日，美联储政策不确定 性增加，美元指数走强，对大宗商品形成普遍压制。叠加供需关系趋于宽松，库存持续走高，沪镍短期下行趋势 较为明确。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，近期镍矿市场新招标即将落地，镍矿价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面，北部Eramen1.4% 镍矿招标、Benguet1.25%锦矿招标。下游镍铁价格报价走跌，铁厂当前对原料镍矿采购多观望，仍持压价心理。 印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26，升水区间多在 +25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格120500元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌1200元/吨。由于价格持续走低，下游企 业采购积极性有所回 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, but recent mining disruptions in Indonesia and the Philippines should be monitored for potential price rebounds [4] - For stainless steel, with the end of the consumption peak season, lower - than - expected demand growth, and weakening cost support, the stainless - steel price is expected to stay in low - level oscillations [5] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,670 yuan/ton and closed at 119,680 yuan/ton, a 0.01% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 82,864 (-9,186) lots, and the open interest was 117,784 (-4,095) lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a low - opening and high - walking oscillatory repair pattern. Affected by macro - sentiment and the metal sector, it rebounded during the day session and slightly closed up. The high - level oscillation of the US dollar index still suppresses nickel prices. The domestic commodity sector rose collectively, and Shanghai nickel rebounded accordingly [2] Nickel Ore - The nickel - ore market trading atmosphere was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and there was a supply - demand price gap. Factory procurement enthusiasm was low [2] - In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area's shipping efficiency was delayed due to continuous rainfall, while the northern mining area had stable local supply. Indonesian November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark prices are expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, with a current mainstream premium of +26 [2] - Due to the rainy season and typhoons, shipping in the southern Surigao area of the Philippines has stopped, and nickel - ore exports are expected to sharply decline from November to December [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premium of each brand did not change [3] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 600 yuan/ton to 3,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton [3] - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 32,533 (-101) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,404 (+300) tons [3] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [4] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,545 yuan/ton and closed at 12,605 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 100,514 (+26,181) lots, and the open interest was 46,429 (-4,171) lots [4] - The main contract of stainless steel showed an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. It rebounded in the afternoon driven by the rise of the black - metal sector [4] Spot - Affected by the futures' stop - falling and rebound, spot inquiries increased, but actual trading activity was still low, and quotes were basically flat [5] - The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 305 - 605 yuan/ton [5] - The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 914.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has an oversupply situation with high inventories, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply from the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [2]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, accumulating inventories, and weakening cost support, and the stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 120,800 yuan/ton and closed at 119,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.99% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 122,871 (+25,519) lots, and the open interest was 118,460 (9,789) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation trend due to macro - factors such as the rising US dollar index, the Fed's hawkish remarks, and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm, with stable prices. There was a supply - demand gap, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons may cause shipment delays. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,500 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot transaction was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 30,952 (-254) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the situation of price rebound needs attention due to the sharp reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,625 yuan/ton and closed at 12,545 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,422 (+3,760) lots, and the open interest was 76,075 (-4,171) lots. It showed a weak oscillation trend, similar to the Shanghai nickel trend, affected by macro - factors and the weakening nickel - iron price [2][3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous decline in futures prices, the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment increased, and the actual transaction was still weak. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets remained unchanged, and the high - nickel pig iron ex - factory tax - included average price decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].

Group 1: Metal Price Information - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 86,590, down 250; SMM flat - water copper premium is - 45, down 15 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21,440, unchanged; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 10, down 10 [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2,840, down 5; Australian alumina FOB average price is 318 dollars, down 1 dollar [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17,250, up 25; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 170, down 45 [1] - Recycled refined aluminum average price is 17,175, up 25; recycled lead average price increase is 25; refined - scrap spread is 75, unchanged [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,580, up 230; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 60, down 30 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price is 285,400, unchanged; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 370, down 240 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 273,400, unchanged; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio is 95.80% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price is 120,950, down 200; 1 imported nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 400, unchanged [1] - SMM electrowinning nickel average price is 120,600, down 200; SMM electrowinning nickel premium average price is 50, unchanged [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,150, down 200; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 2,600, unchanged [1] - Oxygen - through 421 (Xinjiang) average price is 9,050, unchanged; Oxygen - through 421 (Xinjiang) premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,300, down 95 [1] - N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 52.2, down 0.05; N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 51, unchanged [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,900, down 100; Battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 2,180, up 1,680 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,700; the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200, unchanged [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Chief analyst Dian Shi is responsible for copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Senior analyst Liu Dongbo is in charge of aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] - Senior analyst Wu Jiang is responsible for nickel and stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1] - Intermediate analyst Sun Fangfang is in charge of lead and zinc, with qualification number F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1] - Intermediate analyst Zhang Xiurui is responsible for industrial silicon, with qualification number F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is facing a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market is also under the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and its price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,770 yuan/ton and closed at 120,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,113 (- 10,149) lots, and the open interest was 107,897 (- 1,789) lots. The main contract showed a volatile downward trend. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and Powell's cautious statement on the December rate cut led to a short - term rebound of the US dollar, pressuring commodities, and Shanghai nickel closed slightly lower in the late session [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The mine side still has a strong attitude of holding prices, and the overall nickel ore price remains firm. The CIF tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from Indonesia's purchases in the Philippines was 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from the northern Philippine mine LNL was 43.5, unchanged month - on - month. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season, and the shipping is coming to an end; the northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel iron is under pressure, and iron plants are not willing to accept the high price of raw material nickel ore. The domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia in November (phase one) is expected to fall by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,700 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was dull, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,532 (99) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,640 (- 66) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The nickel market has high inventory and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,805 yuan/ton and closed at 12,725 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 105,051 (+ 11,210) lots, and the open interest was 89,093 (- 4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, the main contract showed a volatile weakening trend. Overseas, the rebound of the US dollar pressured commodities; domestically, although the adjustment of real - estate policies released certain positive signals, the demand transmission of stainless steel in the real - estate field was lagging, and it was difficult to boost market confidence in the short term [3]. - **Spot**: The price was basically stable, and trading was still difficult. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 100) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 924.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, stainless steel will still face the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, despite the short - term upward movement due to macro - factors, the overall situation of high inventory and supply surplus remains unchanged, and nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1][3]. - For the stainless steel variety, considering weak downstream demand, increasing inventory, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,150 yuan/ton and closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 129,533 (- 15,670) lots, and the open interest was 108,989 (- 12,453) lots. The nickel price was driven by macro - sentiment, with positive impacts from the Sino - US talks and the weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was stable, with most players adopting a wait - and - see attitude and prices remaining stable. In the domestic market, there was still a price difference between supply and demand sides. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area was entering the rainy season, and the northern mines were mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants wanted to replenish stocks but had a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in October increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories were actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,300 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were slightly adjusted. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 29,780 (2970) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 (384) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,820 yuan/ton and closed at 12,815 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 158,384 (+20,953) lots, and the open interest was 115,124 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the Shanghai nickel price, the stainless steel contract showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, with increased trading volume indicating a marginal increase in market participation. Technically, it showed oscillating repair characteristics, but there was pressure near 12,900 yuan due to the previous intensive trading area [3]. - **Spot**: The impact of macro - sentiment on the spot market was limited. Downstream buyers maintained a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, and actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, with limited price increases. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 255 and 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for stainless steel is a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [4]. - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand growth, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.36% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 60,391 (- 8,453) lots, and the open interest was 50,388 (+ 2,520) lots. The main contract was about to change, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and China's strong economic resilience in Q3 were the main reasons for the strong performance of the metal sector [2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The 1.4% nickel - ore tender of the Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at CIF43. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area was decreasing, and northern mines were mostly tendering for shipment. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they maintained cautious procurement. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel - ore market remained in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season in local mining areas and production preparations for next year, Indonesian factories started raw - material procurement [3]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,900 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained unchanged at 2,450 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 27,026 (+ 158) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (0) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel (2512) opened at 12,600 yuan/ton and closed at 12,665 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,078 (+ 1,298) lots, and the open interest was 188,332 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel and the metal sector, the main contract of stainless steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The price center shifted slightly upward compared with the previous few trading days but did not break through the key resistance level. The trading volume increased moderately compared with the previous day, but short - term capital inflow was limited, and the rebound lacked real momentum [4]. - **Spot**: Downstream inquiries increased, and quotes rose slightly, but actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, and the overall trading situation improved slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 355 and 655 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 936.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, although stainless - steel prices are already at a low level, inventory accumulation has begun, material cost support has weakened, and demand falls short of expectations, so it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation state [5]. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 16, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 120,950 yuan/ton and closed at 121,270 yuan/ton, a 0.21% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 67,146 (-16,615) lots, and the open interest was 66,228 (-2,453) lots. The contract slightly opened lower, the price bottomed out and then rebounded slightly, and the overall non - ferrous metal sector had a small rebound under the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained on the sidelines, and prices were stable. Sea freight decreased due to reduced ship demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories started "winter storage" of raw materials. The nickel ore market in Indonesia continued to have a loose supply pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars, with the current mainstream premium at +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot prices were basically stable, and the spot premium of each brand did not fluctuate. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 26,474 (-84) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,344 (+3,588) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - There are no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,615 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,870 (+12,654) lots, and the open interest was 201,245 (-4,171) lots. The contract slightly opened lower at night, was driven by Shanghai nickel and the black sector to further bottom out, and then followed the rebound of Shanghai nickel to rise slightly at the close [3]. - **Spot**: Overall spot trading was still light, and quotes continued to decline. However, after the futures market bottomed out and rebounded in the afternoon, market activity and prices rebounded slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,950 (-50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,950 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 445 to 745 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - There are no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].