Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 120,010 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 90,715 lots and an open interest of 102,385 lots [1]. - In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,430 yuan/ton, then quickly rose to 121,080 yuan/ton, but then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 119,620 yuan/ton and finally closing at 120,060 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots. The daily session opened at 120,010 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 119,780 - 120,590 yuan/ton, and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 90,715 lots. The LME nickel price fell to 15,050 US dollars/ton during the daily session, intensifying the bearish sentiment in the domestic market [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises slightly improved. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588 (29.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 209,598 (252) tons [3]. Strategy - The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The production capacity of nickel intermediate products continues to be released, and the price of the ore end is loosening. In the short term, the nickel price will mainly fluctuate and move closer to the cost below. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 99,736 lots and an open interest of 138,810 lots [4]. - In the night session, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,870 yuan/ton, rose to 12,895 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 12,765 yuan/ton and finally closing at 12,820 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots. The daily session opened at 12,830 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 12,785 - 12,860 yuan/ton, and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 99,736 lots. The spot market prices in Wuxi and Foshan were 13,050 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 928.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, demand is weak, and affected by macro news, it is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in a range in the near future. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-20 多空博弈激烈，沪镍不锈钢震荡走弱 镍品种 2025-08-19日沪镍主力合约2509开于120490元/吨，收于120330元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.37%，当日成交量 为63677手，持仓量为55967手。 期货方面：沪镍主力即将更换至2510合约，今日主力合约夜盘开盘后快速冲高至 121,450 元 / 吨，但未能站稳高 位，随后回落至 120,140 元 / 吨，最终收于 120,340 元 / 吨，较前日结算价下跌 350 元，跌幅 0.29%。成交量 78,139 手，持仓量 62,507 手，显示夜盘交易活跃度较高，但持仓量未显著增加，多空资金博弈后选择离场。日盘延续弱 势，开盘价 120,490 元，最高价 120,950 元，最低价 120,050 元，最终收于 120,330 元，下跌 450 元，跌幅 0.37%。 成交量 63,677 手，持仓量减少至 55,967 手，较夜盘减少 6,540 手，资金离场迹象明显。8 月 18 日 LME 镍价收 于 15,095 美元 / 吨，下跌 0.66%，8 月 19 日进一步跌至 15, ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Views - In the short - term, Shanghai nickel may continue its weak and volatile trend. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices, limiting the upside space of nickel prices [3] - In the short - term, stainless steel may also continue its weak and volatile trend. In the long - term, the increase in the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore and the upward shift of stainless steel cost support may limit the decline, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making it difficult for stainless steel prices to break through [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,700 yuan/ton and closed at 121,200 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 102,257 lots, and the open interest was 66,437 lots. Night - trading showed limited capital participation and a wait - and - see attitude. Day - trading saw short - position funds actively increasing positions, and market sentiment turned pessimistic [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, with prices stable. Sea freight slightly increased due to weather and shipping capacity. In the Philippines, mines were reluctant to lower prices. In Indonesia, the August (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to drop slightly, and some iron plants were bearish on the premium [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel improved slightly, with changes in premiums for different types of nickel [2] Strategy - Short - term: Shanghai nickel may continue its weak and volatile trend. Long - term: The oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the upside space of nickel prices is limited. Unilateral strategy: mainly range - bound operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,175 yuan/ton and closed at 13,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 160,562 lots, and the open interest was 135,237 lots. Night - trading showed limited capital participation and a wait - and - see attitude. Day - trading saw short - position funds actively increasing positions, and market sentiment turned pessimistic [3][4] - After the stainless steel futures price rose earlier in the week, the spot price increased, but downstream acceptance was poor. As the futures price fell, the spot price also dropped due to the pressure of sales [4] Strategy - Short - term: Stainless steel may continue its weak and volatile trend. Long - term: The increase in the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore and the upward shift of cost support may limit the decline, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and prices are difficult to break through. Unilateral strategy: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile market, influenced more by macro - emotions, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range and run relatively strongly in the near future, as the continuous stimulus of recent macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market to some extent, alleviating the previous pessimistic sentiment [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,020 yuan/ton and closed at 122,440 yuan/ton, a change of 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 96,355 lots, and the open interest was 73,889 lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly after a low - open in the night session, maintained a volatile trend after reaching a high and declined slightly. It maintained a strong volatile trend after the opening of the day session and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest continued to decrease slightly. The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong intention to hold prices, and downstream iron plants' pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly +24, flat month - on - month. The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 124,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum slowed down slightly. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, and spot trading did not improve. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,693 (- 30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,746 (+450) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly operate within the range for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,150 yuan/ton and closed at 13,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,429 lots, and the open interest was 143,674 lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a volatile trend, continued the trend after the opening of the day session, and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The market supply of stainless steel was in short supply, traders had a clear intention to hold prices, and with the continuous stimulus of macro - policy news, the spot price of stainless steel further increased. However, downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high - priced goods, resulting in intense market gaming and poor trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium or discount was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [2] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, short - term macro sentiment has pushed up nickel prices. For the stainless steel variety, the pressure of nickel - iron surplus still exists, and the retail price of ferro - chrome is strongly stable. The social inventory of stainless steel has been decreasing. Recent continuous stimulation from macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market, and it is expected that the stainless steel price will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,130 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 112,549 lots, and the open interest was 77,193 lots. The night session opened slightly lower, then rose slightly, fell back after reaching a high, and oscillated slightly. The day session continued to rise and stood firm at the high of 122,000 yuan in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [1] - **Nickel Ore**: In the Philippines, there was sporadic rainfall across the country, but the overall weather and sea conditions were better than the previous week. It is expected that in the third quarter, the impact of precipitation in the main producing areas will be limited, the shipping volume will remain at a high level, and the port arrival volume of ore will continue to increase with sufficient supply. Mines are mostly in the stage of fulfilling contracts and loading ships. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, the nickel ore supply is loose, and the price has slightly increased. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium was mainly +24 in August (Phase I), unchanged from the previous period, with a range of +23 - 25 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot transaction of refined nickel was generally average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,723 (102.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (- 936) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,045 yuan/ton and closed at 13,225 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 202,613 lots, and the open interest was 135,260 lots. The night session oscillated strongly, and the day session continued to rise, closing with a positive line. Both the trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous trading day [3] - **Spot**: Boosted by the sharp rise in the SS futures market, the confidence of spot traders to be bullish has been significantly enhanced, and the quotes have increased accordingly. Small - scale traders started to replenish stocks, and the daily orders were acceptable. However, affected by the rapid price increase, some agents temporarily stopped accepting futures orders. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,200 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,200 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 919.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-07 不锈钢盘面横盘振荡，现货成交转淡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-08-06日沪镍主力合约2509开于120500元/吨，收于121070元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.22%，当日成交量为 87840手，持仓量为86052手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘小幅低开快速下跌后振荡走高，日盘冲高回落，午后小幅收高，收中阳线。成交量较上个交易 日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。美东时间周日，美国贸易代表格里尔（Jamieson Greer）表示，美国 总统特朗普上周对多国加征的新一轮关税"基本已定"，不会在当前谈判中作出调整。当地时间8月3日，美国总统 特朗普表示将在三到四天内宣布新任劳工统计局局长人选。三部门印发《新一轮农村公路提升行动方案》目标到 2027年全国完成新改建农村公路30万公里。菲律宾方面，矿山多处装船出货阶段。下游国内铁厂多降负荷生产操 作，原料采购维持谨慎。印尼方面，印尼地区天气稍有好转，镍矿开采效率提升，印尼镍矿行情走弱。8月（一期） 内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3美元；内贸升水方面，8月（一期）升水以+24为主流，环比持平，区间+23-25。现货市场方 ...

Group 1: Metal Price Changes on August 6, 2025 - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 78,350, down 265; SMM flat - copper premium was 65, down 45 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price was 20,630, up 110; SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 40, unchanged [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) price was 3240, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price was 375 dollars, unchanged [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 16,725, up 125; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was - 80, down 50 [1] - Recycled refined aluminum average price was 16,750, up 150; refined - scrap price difference was - 25, down 25 [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22,330, up 30; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was 5, down 30 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price was 267,600, up 600; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was 570, up 20 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price was 255,600, up 600; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio was 95.52% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price was 121,300, up 200; 1 imported nickel premium to SHFE nickel contract average price was 350, unchanged [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,200, up 200; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to SHFE nickel contract average price was 2250, unchanged [1] - Oxygen - passed 553 (Xinjiang) average price (with 800 regional discount and 200 quality impurity removal) was 9550, unchanged; 553 spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was 1000, down 180 [1] - 421 silicon (Kunming) average price was 10,000, unchanged; polysilicon dense material average price was 0; granular silicon average price was 0; N - type polysilicon material average price was 47 [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 70,950, down 250; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 was 2690, up 1130 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 68,850, up 2100; refined - industrial lithium carbonate price difference was 0 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Xiao Jing, Chief Analyst, studies copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] - Wu Jiang, Senior Analyst, studies nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1] - Sun Fangfang, Intermediate Analyst, studies aluminum and zinc, with qualification number F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1] - Zhang Xiurui, Intermediate Analyst, studies industrial silicon, with qualification number F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. Due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, price increases lack momentum. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range with a slight upward bias in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,630 yuan/ton and closed at 120,910 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84,818 lots, and the open interest was 90,543 lots. Philippine mines are in the shipping stage, while domestic iron plants are reducing production loads and being cautious in raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (first phase) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium remained flat. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel was raised by about 500 yuan/ton, and the premiums of refined nickel were mostly stable, but spot trading became lighter. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,923 (- 247.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 211,254 (2172) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: In the near term, trade within the range for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,845 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 79,826 lots, and the open interest was 85,949 lots. The US may impose new tariffs, and China will resume levying VAT on the interest income of certain bonds from August 8, 2025. In the spot market, the futures price oscillated upward, but the spot price changed little. After rigid - demand restocking, market trading declined, and the overall trading was average. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 95 - 295 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 916.0 yuan/nickel point [2]. - **Strategy**: The single - side trading strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data fell short of expectations, and stainless steel showed a weak and volatile trend. The nickel market also had a weak performance, with the nickel futures contract showing a decline and the stainless - steel futures contract also under pressure [1][4]. - In the nickel market, although the refined nickel spot had some support, the supply - surplus pattern remained. The stainless - steel market faced downward pressure with a decline in spot trading volume and cooling downstream purchasing sentiment [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 121,050 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,818 lots, and the open interest was 97,451 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract 2509 was weak and volatile throughout the day, with a decrease in trading volume and a slight increase in open interest compared to the previous day. The short - term downward momentum was accumulating, and the 117,000 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [2]. - In the spot market, the prices of major brands of refined nickel decreased. The spot price provided support to the futures price, with the premium of Jinchuan nickel changing to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remaining at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans at - 450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,705 (- 54.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 208,692 ( + 600) tons [2]. Strategy - Given the cooling market sentiment and the supply - surplus pattern, the expected upper range was 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. For trading strategies, only single - side range trading was proposed, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2509 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,342 lots, and the open interest was 94,448 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract was weak and volatile, with a decrease in both trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day. The 13,100 yuan/ton level was considered a short - term resistance, and the 12,400 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [4]. - In the spot market, the prices in Foshan decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the trading volume declined. The nickel - iron market price also decreased, and it was expected to remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 250 - 450 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - Since the main stainless - steel contract formed a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton, it was waiting to break through the 120 - day moving - average resistance. The expected upper range was around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. The single - side trading strategy was neutral, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the recent market sentiment has cooled down, and the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is between 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [2][3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, the main contract of stainless steel has a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton. It is expected to break through the 120 - day moving average resistance level. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is between 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is also recommended, along with monitoring the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 121,720 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 153,323 lots, and the open interest was 92,635 lots [1]. - The main contract 2509 showed a narrow - range oscillation throughout the day, with a small positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, indicating a weakening upward momentum in the short term. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 117,000 yuan/ton on June 23, and it is estimated that 117,000 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were all raised. The refined nickel futures price has been rising continuously following commodities due to the influence of capital sentiment, but the sentiment has shown signs of cooling this week. The spot trading of refined nickel is acceptable, and the oversupply pattern of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The premium and discount have decreased due to the influence of contract switching but are still at a high level, so the spot price provides support for the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,759 (- 121.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 (3,180) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, range trading is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,920 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 153,403 lots, and the open interest was 102,650 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated slightly upward, with a doji positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and the sharp decline after the rally last Friday night indicated that there was pressure above 13,100 yuan/ton. It is considered that 13,100 yuan/ton is a short - term resistance level. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 12,400 yuan/ton on June 24, and it is estimated that 12,400 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [4]. - In the spot market, the morning quotations of merchants in the Foshan market were raised by 50 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot trading volume has rebounded, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has also improved. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, and most sellers' quotations were around 905 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 110 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 912.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [6].