Report Summary of the Metal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price may rise in the short - term due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. The price center may gradually increase. The main price range to watch is 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. The spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro environment is relatively warm, and the price is supported by peak - season demand and inventory inflection points, with the main contract expected to oscillate between 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract's operating range between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, supported by cost and pre - holiday stocking but restricted by weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, and the price may be driven up in the short - term by the macro environment but lacks upward momentum from the fundamentals. The main price range is 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is stable, and there are more disturbances at the mine end, with cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. The raw material price provides cost support, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized, and inventory de - stocking is under pressure [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton, supported by strong peak - season demand [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at - 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a slight increase [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20900 yuan/ton. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 21630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 271400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The LME 0 - 3 premium remained unchanged at - 50 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In August, the tin ore import was 10267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 15390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 122000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 decreased to - 187 dollars/ton [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 17536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) dropped to 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 100 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the demand was 104023 tons, an increase of 8.25% [16].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The impact of rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reason and macro - background. The previous loose trading may end, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the short - term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend, and the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price was volatile last week. The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand pull from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection point [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price declined last week. The cost support is significant, and the demand is in a mild recovery. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The import TC is rising steadily, and the supply side is expected to be loose. The demand side shows differentiation at home and abroad. The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates in September. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000. Attention should be paid to the tin ore import from Myanmar [9]. Nickel - The nickel price was volatile last week. After the Fed's rate cut, the macro - sentiment was digested. There is no obvious change in the spot transaction of refined nickel. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 120,000 - 125,000, and attention should be paid to the macro - expectation and ore news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price declined slightly last week. The raw material price is firm, but the peak - season demand has not been realized. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill dynamics and peak - season demand [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price was volatile last week. The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained at 79,990 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper's premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton, with a 6.70% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.18 million tons to 72.45 million tons, with a 4.59% increase [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 209 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - new spreads in different regions increased, with the largest increase of 2.43% in the Foshan profile aluminum scrap - new spread [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 15.17 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing starting rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 58.05% [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 269,300 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 tin premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 122,750 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 179 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons, with a 2.07% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,100 yuan/ton. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.60 million tons to 47.20 million tons, with a 1.26% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 858 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [15].

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper prices decreased with reduced positions. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. In the industrial aspect, downstream buyers were hesitant as copper prices rose in September. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous trading range, also prompting long - position closing. Copper prices have been rising with increasing positions since last week, breaking through the 80,000 mark, and are expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the Fed's September interest - rate decision [3]. - Aluminum prices decreased with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 21,000 mark. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced resistance at the March high. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the 21,000 mark and the Fed's September interest - rate decision [4]. - Shanghai nickel decreased with reduced positions in the morning and stabilized and rebounded in the afternoon, with the position volume continuously declining. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise, which was negative for nickel prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short battle at 122,000 and the Fed's September interest - rate decision [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate their adjacent mines in central Chile. The Los Bronces copper mine of Anglo American and the Andina copper mine of Codelco will be integrated to create a new mining area. Once approved (expected before 2030), the project is expected to produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [7]. - The research department of Commerzbank stated that affected by the interweaving of long and short factors, aluminum prices may show a sideways - oscillating trend in the short term. Last week, aluminum prices broke through the $2,700 per ton mark but are currently under downward pressure. To curb over - capacity, investment in the aluminum industry is regulated, which may also ease the decline in aluminum prices. Aluminum production may stagnate or even decline slightly in the next few months [8]. - On September 17, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [8]. Group 3: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [33][35][37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macro方面,美联储表态偏鸽,市场预计9月降息概率提升,提振铜价,但后续降息幅度不确定,铜价上方空间仍面临压制 - 基本面呈现"弱现实+稳预期"状态,中长期供需矛盾提供底部支撑,铜价至少维持震荡,后续步入新的上行周期需等待铜的商品属性及金融属性共振,主力参考78500 - 81000 [1] Zinc - 上游海外矿企步入投产复产上行周期,矿端供应宽松逻辑逐步传导至冶炼端,7月国内精锌产量大增 - 需求端即将步入旺季,锌价重心下移后,现货成交好转,全球库存绝对值水平偏低给予价格支撑 - 供应端宽松预期仍存,对锌价持续上冲提供的弹性不足,短期锌价或仍以震荡运行为主,主力参考21500 - 23000 [4] Aluminum Alumina - 市场呈现"高供应、高库存、弱需求"格局,当前期价已逼近国内主流成本带,下方空间相对有限,上方驱动需等待几内亚供应扰动或情绪催化,主力合约参考区间2900 - 3200元/吨 [7] Aluminum - 宏观层面美联储降息预期升温对铝价形成外部支撑,基本面供应端产能高位但成本上升,需求端下游消费边际回暖,社会库存虽小幅累库但同比仍处低位 - 整体呈现宏观预期与基本面改善共振格局,但高价对下游采购有抑制,短期预计维持20400 - 21000元/吨区间震荡 [7] Aluminum Alloy - 供应端废铝市场供应趋紧,对成本形成支撑,近期多地税收政策调整使部分再生铝厂减产或停产 - 需求端终端消费仍偏弱,累库趋势延续,9月起市场将迎来淡旺季转换,部分压铸企业订单已出现边际回暖迹象 - 若进口比价维持,进口铝合金锭及废铝补充有限,预计现货价格保持坚挺,铝合金与铝价差有望进一步收敛,主力合约参考运行区间20000 - 20600元/吨 [8] Tin - 供应方面,现实锡矿供应维持紧张,7月国内锡矿进口环比下降,实际出矿预计延至四季度,关注缅甸锡矿恢复情况 - 需求方面,光伏抢装机结束后,部分地区订单和开工率下滑 - 受国家政策指引,市场对于国内Al需求预期向好,同时基本面延续强势,锡价偏强震荡,运行区间参考285000 - 265000 [10] Nickel - 宏观方面,美国宽松预期提振,国内反内卷背景下政策预期偏积极 - 产业层面,精炼镍现货成交尚可,矿价坚挺,镍铁价格偏强,不锈钢需求仍偏弱 - 情绪影响弱化,近期成本有一定支撑,基本面供需变动不大,价格下跌空间有限,中期供给宽松不改制约价格上方空间,短期预计盘面以区间调整为主,主力参考118000 - 126000 [11] Stainless Steel - 宏观方面,美联储降息预期升温,中美关税谈判结果落地出口压力阶段性缓和,国内政策态度偏积极 - 矿价坚挺,镍铁市场议价区间上移,钢厂生产利润修复,对于镍铁压价心态有所缓解 - 季节性和政策窗口之下需求预期改善,但目前终端需求疲软现实未改,不锈钢社会库存去化仍较慢 - 原料价格坚挺成本支撑强化,伴随旺季来临市场持谨慎乐观态度,库存压力放缓,但基本面仍受制于现货需求偏弱,短期盘面区间震荡为主,主力运行区间参考12600 - 13400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - 消息面上,关于大厂复产信息多有发酵,目前官方尚无公告 - 近期碳酸锂基本面维持紧平衡,供应收缩预期逐步兑现,需求表现稳健偏乐观,但材料产业链库存压力之下实际需求尚大幅提振仍需跟踪 - 近期利多出尽演化为情绪利空,期现共振整体交易氛围转弱,但9月底之前供应端消息尚未完全落地,基本面改善仍然为价格提供下方支撑,预计盘面价格中枢下移后宽幅震荡为主,主力区间参考7 - 7.5万 [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1电解铜现值80160元/吨,日涨260元,涨幅0.33% - 精废价差现值1852元/吨,日涨215元,涨幅13.13%等 [1] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值20元/吨,日涨30元 [1] Fundamental Data - 8月电解铜产量117.15万吨,月环比下降0.24% - 境内社会库存现值13.21万吨,周环比增长7.40%等 [1] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0锌锭现值22150元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.23% - 进口盈亏现值 - 2267元/吨,日跌64.32元 [4] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 45元/吨,日跌20元 [4] Fundamental Data - 8月精炼锌产量62.62万吨,月环比增长3.88% - 中国锌锭七地社会库存现值14.63万吨,周环比增长5.63%等 [4] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00铝现值20710元/吨,日涨90元,涨幅0.44% - 进口盈亏现值 - 1359元/吨,日跌35.7元 [7] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值15元/吨,日跌5元 [7] Fundamental Data - 8月氧化铝产量773.82万吨,月环比增长1.15% - 中国电解铝社会库存现值62.30万吨,周环比增长1.14%等 [7] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM铝合金ADC12现值20750元/吨,日涨幅0.00% - 佛山破碎生铝精废价差现值1608元/吨,日涨幅0.00% [8] Monthly Spread - 2511 - 2512现值 - 10元/吨,日涨5元 [8] Fundamental Data - 7月再生铝合金锭产量62.50万吨,月环比增长1.63% - 再生铝合金锭周度社会库存现值3.75万吨,周环比增长6.84%等 [8] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1锡现值273500元/吨,日涨1000元,涨幅0.37% - LME 0 - 3升贴水现值148美元/吨,日跌27美元,跌幅15.43% [10] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - 进口盈亏现值 - 20382.26元/吨,日跌5.53元,跌幅0.03% [10] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 320元/吨,日涨20元,涨幅5.88% [10] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - 7月锡矿进口10278吨,月环比下降13.71% - SMM精锡7月平均开工率66.19%,月涨幅0.00%等 [10] Inventory Changes - SHEF库存周报现值7566吨,周涨75吨,涨幅1.00% [10] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1电解镍现值124050元/吨,日跌250元,跌幅0.20% - 期货进口盈亏现值 - 1504元/吨,日跌1055元,涨幅234.97% [11] Electrolytic Nickel Cost - 一体化MHP生产电积镍成本现值118531元/吨,月跌3422元,跌幅2.81% [11] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 200元/吨,日跌70元 [11] Supply and Demand and Inventory - 中国精炼镍产量现值37800吨,月涨400吨,涨幅1.26% - SHFE库存现值26943吨,周跌19吨,跌幅0.07%等 [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷)现值13200元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.38% - 期现价差现值410元/吨,日涨40元,涨幅10.81% [13] Raw Material Price - 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价现值57美元/湿吨,日涨幅0.00% - 内蒙古高碳铬铁FeCrC1000均价现值8400元/50基吨,日涨100元,涨幅1.20% [13] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 70元/吨,日跌10元 [13] Fundamental Data - 中国300系不锈钢粗钢产量(43家)现值171.33万吨,月环比下降3.83% - 300系社库(锡 + 佛)现值49.90万吨,周环比下降1.09%等 [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM电池级碳酸锂均价现值77500元/吨,日跌850元,跌幅1.08% - 锂辉石精矿CIF平均价现值887美元/吨,日跌11美元,跌幅1.22% [14] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2511现值 - 20元/吨,日涨160元 [14] Fundamental Data - 8月碳酸锂产量85240吨,月环比增长4.55% - 碳酸锂总库存(8月)现值94177吨,月环比下降3.75%等 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term, copper price is affected by the game of interest - rate cut expectations. The Fed's dovish stance on August 22 boosted the market's expectation of a September rate cut and copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction of copper is the main line. The supply is tight, and there is support at the bottom. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price may fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the US economic data in August and the rate - cut path in the second half of the year [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The alumina futures market was weak this week due to the increase in warehouse receipts. The spot market is divided between the north and the south. The medium - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton next week, and short positions can be considered in the medium term. - Aluminum: The aluminum futures market fluctuated narrowly this week. The current supply - demand structure is under pressure, and the subsequent inventory build - up expectation is still strong. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of aluminum alloy showed marginal improvement this week. The social inventory decreased for the first time since mid - April. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand from the communication die - casting sector has rebounded. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption. The smelting profit has been repaired, and the smelting start - up rate has increased. The demand is in the seasonal off - season. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are not enough to boost the zinc price to rise continuously, but the overseas inventory drawdown provides support. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronic consumption off - season. The tin price will fluctuate widely in the short term. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered [11]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel futures market fluctuated weakly. The macro - sentiment declined, and the fundamentals of supply and demand changed little. The short - term nickel price will return to fundamental pricing, with limited downside space and restricted upside space by the medium - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market fluctuated downwards. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated sharply. The price center moved down to below 80,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals are in a tight balance, with supply contraction and stable demand. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and there may be strong support in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 78,830 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 4.84% to 1,084 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,226 yuan/ton, down 74.1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 20,450 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 1.28% to 1,588 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 8.13 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin was at 266,000 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The import loss was 16,622.23 yuan/ton, up 6.26% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 120,550 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 176 dollars/ton, up 5.95% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 420 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume of stainless steel was 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80,668 yuan/ton, down 1.53% from the previous day. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 934 dollars/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 66,099.6 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper showed a slight downward oscillation with a slight increase in open interest. Recently, copper prices have been weak, but the amplitude has been narrowing, and open interest has stabilized. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled, and overseas risk appetite has declined. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper began to decline on Thursday. As the peak season approaches, industrial support may continue to strengthen. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. As the peak season approaches, industrial support for aluminum prices has increased. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel increased in position and declined, with the main contract price breaking through the 120,000 - yuan mark. At the macro - level, the bullish atmosphere in the domestic market has cooled. At the industrial level, high domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories keep the nickel fundamentals weak. In the short term, with the cooling of the macro - atmosphere and weak fundamentals, the nickel price has broken through the 120,000 - yuan mark, and the futures price is expected to continue its decline [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 21, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 129,700 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to the 14th and 14,500 tons compared to the 18th. The procurement and sales sentiment in the Shanghai area has improved. Looking ahead to tomorrow, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and under the drag of low - priced imported goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, as it is Friday tomorrow, the downstream procurement sentiment is expected to be strong, so the decline of the spot premium of Shanghai copper is limited [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 579,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the 14th and a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to the 18th. In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 611,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In July 2025, the export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [10]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,700 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,100 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides various charts for copper, aluminum, and nickel, including base differentials, inventory changes, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper base differentials, domestic and overseas inventory changes, and LME copper cancellation warrant ratios; for aluminum, there are charts of aluminum base differentials, social inventory changes, and alumina inventory changes; for nickel, there are charts of nickel base differentials, inventory changes, and LME nickel trends [12][25][38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment of a weakening US economy and commodity inflation restricts the space for interest rate cuts, suppressing the upside of copper prices. The short - term focus is on interest rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions and long - term overcapacity coexist, and the price is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, macro factors provide some support, but the supply - demand structure is under pressure. The supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. As it enters the transition period from the off - peak to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import situation remains the same, the spot price may remain relatively firm, and the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate of global mines in May and domestic mines in July is lower than expected. The supply at the smelting end is increasing, while the demand is in the seasonal off - peak period. Low global inventories support prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - The actual tin ore supply remains tight. If the supply recovery fails to meet expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [9]. Nickel - The macro environment has increased expectations of more aggressive easing. The spot price is basically stable, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the new energy downstream has low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating weakly. The export pressure has been temporarily alleviated, and the nickel iron price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is expected to increase, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is slightly adjusted, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while demand is showing a positive trend. The overall inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.38 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,289 yuan/ton, an improvement of 113.2 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum products have increased to varying degrees [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions. The scrap - to - refined price difference in some regions has changed, such as a 9.38% decrease in the scrap - to - refined price difference of Foshan crushed raw aluminum [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 266,000 tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,728 yuan/ton, an improvement of 62.92 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 89 dollars/ton, up 41.27% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remains stable at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 6.82% from the previous day [10]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in July was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The forward - spot spread is 385 yuan/ton, up 24.19% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in July was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remains stable at 2,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month. The total inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, but it may not prevent a restart of rate cuts. Trump has extended the China - US tariff truce for 90 days. - Fundamentally, it's approaching the traditional peak season. Spot premiums are strong, and domestic social inventories are decreasing. "Tight mine supply + resilient demand" supports copper prices. - In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. Weak economic expectations will cap copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is limited. It will likely fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500, depending on US economic data [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure with prices falling. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the market will be slightly oversupplied. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic production capacity is stable, but demand is weak. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, demand weakness, and macro - level disturbances, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market followed the decline of aluminum prices. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is affected by the off - season. The market will remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price ranging from 19,600 - 20,400 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and restart, but the growth rate of mine production is lower than expected. The supply of zinc concentrate is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end, and production has increased significantly. - Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the primary processing industries' operating rates are at seasonal lows. Low inventory provides price support. In the future, the current fundamentals are not sufficient to boost a continuous rise in zinc prices, and it will likely fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and due to the off - season in the electronics industry. - Affected by the US PPI data, the market expects a delay in interest - rate cuts, and the dollar is strengthening, suppressing tin prices. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price will likely remain high and fluctuate [11]. Nickel - The macro - level shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing expectations of more aggressive monetary easing. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of nickel iron has increased but still faces over - supply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is low. - Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory has increased. The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 in the short - term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - level expectation has strengthened. - The price of nickel iron is rising steadily, and steel mills' profits have improved, increasing production motivation. However, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The price will likely fluctuate strongly in the range of 12,800 - 13,500 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong. There are supply - side uncertainties, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. - Demand is expected to increase as it approaches the peak season, but the actual demand has not been significantly boosted due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain. - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, ranging from 86,000 - 92,000. A cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended, and light - position long - entry on dips can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 79,280 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The premium increased by 45 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 7.74% to 1,014 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 184.22 yuan/ton to 329 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%. Imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. - The copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic - copper rod production increased by 1.75 percentage points to 70.61% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 0.77% to 20,550 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed mixed trends. - The import profit increased to 57.1 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. - The operating rates of various aluminum - processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% to 60.70 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions, with a 0.49% decrease in the southwest region. - The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with the 2511 - 2512 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% and 4.31% respectively. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 20.21%, and exports increased by 6.61%. - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 3.02%, and the weekly social inventory increased by 2.03% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell by 0.67% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 234.81 yuan/ton to - 1,791 yuan/ton. - The monthly spread of some contracts decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. In June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97%, and exports were 0.19 million tons, up 33.24%. - The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at seasonal lows, and the global inventory level was low [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.30% to 266,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 280.00% to 63.00 US dollars/ton. - The import loss increased by 7.60% to - 17,389.53 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94%. - The operating rates of refined tin and solder production decreased. The SHEF inventory decreased by 0.17% to 7,792 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.12% to 121,650 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 4.25% to - 1,766 yuan/ton. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased slightly to 926 yuan/ni point [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04%. Imports increased by 116.90% in June. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 210,414 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.11% to 23,051 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coil in Wuxi rose by 0.38% to 13,150 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts decreased. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained stable [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% in July. Imports decreased by 12.48%, and exports decreased by 10.63%. - The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose by 2.30% to 84,600 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed. - The price of lithium - spodumene concentrate increased by 4.04% to 978 US dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. - In June, imports decreased by 16.31%, and exports increased by 49.84%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [17].