1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View **Likely Positive Factors** - Domestic factories are stocking up before the Chinese New Year, leading to a slight recovery in demand [3]. - The premium of Jinchuan nickel has narrowed to 4,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount has remained stable [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - High inventory levels persist, and the supply glut remains unchanged [3]. - There are few inquiries in the nickel ore market, demand is sluggish, and prices have stabilized without a clear upward trend [3]. **Trading Advisory View** - It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the short - term impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Data** **Nickel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel (SHFE) was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 2,160 yuan or 1.83% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,920 yuan or 1.63% week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 116,060 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 116,290 yuan/ton, down 1,910 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week [3]. - LME nickel 3M was at 14,610 US dollars/ton, down 360 US dollars or 1.62% week - on - week [3]. - The open interest was 106,302 lots, down 5,283 lots or 4.7% week - on - week; the trading volume was 106,815 lots, down 17,698 lots or 14.21% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 33,939 tons, down 825 tons or 2.37% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan or - 373.33% week - on - week [3]. **Stainless Steel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 12,625 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.28% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 12,695 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan or 0.36% week - on - week [4]. - The trading volume was 69,415 lots, down 32,225 lots or 31.71% week - on - week; the open interest was 64,258 lots, down 21,427 lots or 25.01% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 61,378 tons, down 241 tons or 0.39% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 570 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 21.28% week - on - week [4]. **Nickel Spot** - Jinchuan nickel was at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.21% day - on - day; imported nickel was at 116,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day; 1 electrolytic nickel was at 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; nickel beans were at 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; electrowon nickel was at 116,450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day [4]. **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory was 56,848 tons, up 1,499 tons; LME nickel inventory was 252,852 tons, down 240 tons; stainless steel social inventory was 947,600 tons, up 700 tons; nickel pig iron inventory was 29,346 tons, down 879 tons [6]. **3.2 Market Trends and Charts** - The report includes charts showing the historical trends of nickel futures prices (both domestic and LME), stainless steel futures prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel supply and inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profitability, and stainless steel production and inventory [7][9][11]. **3.3 Industry Chain Analysis** **Upstream Nickel Ore** - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB) is presented in a historical trend chart, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports is also shown [16]. - The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average landed duty - paid price of Indonesian nickel pig iron (Ni≥14%) are presented in historical trend charts [17]. - The seasonal production volume of nickel iron in China and Indonesia is shown in charts [18][19]. **Downstream Nickel Sulfate** - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, the profitability of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profitability of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate are presented in historical trend charts [21][23][24]. - The monthly production volume of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown in charts [25]. **Stainless Steel** - The seasonal profitability of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production volume, and inventory are presented in historical trend charts [27][29][30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating. It is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December, with prices fluctuating in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Spot prices are stable, and the main contract has risen. Although new delivery brands are beneficial for increasing deliverable volume and warehouse receipts, considering weak demand and a large decline in production, polysilicon futures may still oscillate at a high level, and the spot is still under pressure [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly in the game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum oscillating in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - Market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend throughout the year, and a bullish view on tin prices is maintained [6]. Zinc - With the decline of TC, the supply pressure is relieved, and the short - term price has limited downward space. The export of refined zinc drives the spot to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term Shanghai zinc price trend may be stronger than that of London zinc, and the main contract should focus on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - Macro factors are temporarily stable. After the valuation repair of nickel prices, the price driving force weakens. In the medium term, the loose fundamentals restrict the upward space of prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Macro factors are temporarily stable, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is not smooth. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. Although the fundamentals have not changed much, the market is affected by news of slower - than - expected upstream resumption of production. In the short term, it may maintain a strong oscillation under the drive of capital sentiment [18]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: On December 11, the prices of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged compared with the previous day, while the basis of each variety declined [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The average prices of N - type re - feeding materials, N - type granular silicon, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm remained unchanged on December 11, while the average price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R increased by 4.24% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On December 12, the prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by 0.46% - 0.47% compared with the previous day, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in various regions also showed an upward trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: On December 12, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55% compared with the previous day, and the average price of alumina in various regions showed a downward trend [4]. - **Tin**: On December 12, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.04% compared with the previous day, and the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 66.67% [6]. - **Zinc**: On December 12, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.17% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss improved [8]. - **Copper**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper, and SMM wet - process copper increased by 1.05% - 1.22% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss worsened [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel decreased by 0.21% - 0.26% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss of futures worsened [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 12, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 12, the average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Price Differences - **Industrial Silicon**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. showed significant changes on December 11, with some increasing by more than 100% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The price differences between the main contract, current - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed on December 11, with the current - month - to - first - continuous increasing by 1166.67% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price differences between AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [4]. - **Tin**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [6]. - **Zinc**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [8]. - **Copper**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [10]. - **Nickel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [18]. Fundamental Data - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 11.17% month - on - month, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The outputs of organic silicon DMC and regenerative aluminum alloy increased, while the outputs of polysilicon and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In November, the polysilicon output decreased by 14.48% month - on - month, the import volume increased by 11.96%, and the export volume decreased by 27.99%. The silicon wafer output decreased by 10.35% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the output of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74% month - on - month, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06%, and the export volume increased by 31.49% [3]. - **Aluminum**: In November, the alumina output decreased by 4.44% month - on - month, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 3.50%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum import volume increased by 0.61%, and the export volume decreased by 15.18% [4]. - **Tin**: In October, the tin ore import volume increased by 33.49%, the SMM refined tin output increased by 53.09%, the refined tin import volume decreased by 58.55%, and the export volume decreased by 15.33% [6]. - **Zinc**: In November, the refined zinc output decreased by 3.56% month - on - month. In October, the refined zinc import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Copper**: In November, the electrolytic copper output increased by 1.05% month - on - month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume decreased by 15.61% [10]. - **Nickel**: In November, the Chinese refined nickel output decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the refined nickel import volume decreased by 65.66% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In November, the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.72%, and the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel increased by 0.36%. The stainless steel import volume increased by 3.18%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the lithium carbonate output increased by 3.35% month - on - month, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume increased by 21.86%, and the export volume increased by 63.05% [18]. Inventory Changes - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, the weekly social inventory increased by 0.54%, the daily warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 11.40%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.28% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, the silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 7.58% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08%, the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.28%, the daily inventory in Ningbo increased by 3.91%, and the daily inventory in Wuxi decreased by 28.57% [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.01%, the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.72%, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 0.15%, the alumina plant's in - house inventory increased by 1.72%, the alumina port inventory increased by 2.36%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.39% [4]. - **Tin**: The SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, the social inventory increased by 2.39%, the SHEF daily warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the LME daily inventory increased by 1.09% [6]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the LME inventory increased by 0.92% [8]. - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.58%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.42%, the COMEX inventory increased by 0.48%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased by 4.23%, the social inventory increased by 2.71%, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged, the LME inventory decreased by 0.09%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.69%, the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.08%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.20% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a volatile trend with a slight increase in positions. There is significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and the weakening US dollar index is favorable for copper prices. There is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas inventories accumulating marginally and domestic inventories decreasing marginally. Technically, focus on the multi - empty game at the 87,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and today they stabilized in a volatile manner. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, and non - ferrous metals have generally stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum's rebound is relatively small, positions are continuously decreasing, and market attention is waning. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 21,500 yuan mark [8]. - **沪镍**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then maintained a high - level volatile trend, and today they were strongly volatile, once reaching the 118,000 yuan mark. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, leading to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Last week, nickel prices decreased significantly with increasing positions, and the spot premium continued to strengthen. In the short term, the market has warmed up, and short - covering has pushed up nickel prices. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 120,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, Codelco's benchmark price for the 2026 CIF long - term contract of electrolytic copper in China is set at $350 per ton, a rise of $261 per ton compared to $89 per ton in 2025 [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 26, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 117,300 and 122,400 yuan per ton, with an average price of 119,850 yuan per ton, a rise of 1,300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 4,400 and 4,900 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 4,650 yuan per ton, a rise of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between 0 and 500 yuan per ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Copper prices declined from high levels today, accelerating the decline in the afternoon with a continuous decrease in open interest. After a short - term market rebound, there is a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Macroscopically, stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals all declined. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the support at the 84,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices also declined from high levels today, accelerating the decline in the afternoon with little change in overall open interest. After a short - term market rebound, there is a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Macroscopically, stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals all declined. It is expected that aluminum prices will stabilize with fluctuations [5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices significantly declined with an increase in open interest today, and the main contract price fell below the 121,000 yuan mark. The short - term decline was caused by long - position holders in the non - ferrous sector closing their positions, and nickel may be used as a short - allocation position in the sector. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 yuan mark [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: SMM predicts that the comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry in October will drop to 67.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points. Although it is a year - on - year increase of 2.44 percentage points, the overall operation is slow. The National Day holiday led to some enameled wire enterprises having holidays or reducing production, directly dragging down the industry's operating rate. From the demand side, the demand for enameled wires from power transformers and new - energy - related end - users is stable and improving, and there is also an expectation of warming in the end - user home appliance demand. However, high copper prices significantly suppress orders, and enterprises are cautious about order growth expectations [8]. - **Aluminum**: Rio Tinto (RIO) achieved significant growth in the production of key products in the third quarter. Bauxite production climbed to 16.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%; alumina production increased by 7% to 1.9 million tons; copper production also increased by 10% to 204,000 tons. The company's CEO pointed out that its bauxite business and the Oyu Tolgoi mine both set production records. The underground expansion project of the Oyu Tolgoi mine is expected to increase this year's copper production by more than 50%, and the Simandou project has also made important progress. Currently, Rio Tinto is enhancing shareholder value by improving operational efficiency and controlling capital expenditures and maintaining its 2025 production targets [9]. - **Nickel**: On October 14, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,700 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 100 yuan/ton, showing a decrease [10]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29] - **Nickel**: The report presents charts like nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][38][40]