全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，1月5日白银etf持有量为16353.60吨，较上一交易日减少90.54吨。周一（1月5 日）现货白银尾盘收于76.57美元/盎司，上涨5.44%，盘中白银价格最高上探至77.86美元/盎司，最低触及72.88美元/盎司。 12月非农就业报告定于周五公布，《华尔街日报》调查的分析师预计12月新增就业人数为7.3万人，高于11月的6.4万人。该数据是 市场判断美联储下一步政策动向的关键依据。 贝莱德投资研究院表示，在去年美国政府停摆导致数据发布延迟之后，美国经济数据日程恢复正常，有助于投资者判断经济形 势，尤其是劳动力市场数据备受关注。贝莱德称："美国经济日程本周开始恢复常态。12月就业数据将有助于在此前因延迟发布而 显得嘈杂的情况下，厘清劳动力市场图景。" 【市场要闻速递】 ...

记者 陈植 2025年12月30日，美国芝加哥商品交易所（下称"芝商所"）再次上调COMEX白银期货合约初始保证金。 其中，调整后纽约5000盎司白银期货非高风险组合新的保证金为每手32500美元，高风险组合新的初始保证金为每手35750美元。这是芝商所在过去两周第三 次调高白银期货交易保证金。 这导致COMEX白银期货价格回落至71美元/盎司附近。 2025年11月以来，COMEX白银期货从45美元/盎司一路涨至最高值82.67美元/盎司，累计涨幅达到83%。这背后是投机资本与散户趁着伦敦、纽约白银现货 极度紧缺，大举涌入COMEX白银期货市场逼空。 近日，海外社交平台上流传"一家系统重要性银行白银期货空头头寸爆仓"的传闻，进一步激发市场的逼空情绪。"当前，投机资本与散户正形成某种执念 ——只要逼空行情持续发酵，大型投行白银期货空头头寸爆仓事件发生的概率就会增加，令逼空收益更加可观。"2025年12月30日晚，长期参与COMEX黄 金、白银期货投资的华尔街对冲基金经理张刚对经济观察报记者表示。 回看历史，1970年至1980年、2009年至2011年期间，白银也曾掀起两轮逼空行情。彼时，靠着芝商所大幅调高白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations highlighting both short-term risks and long-term bullish fundamentals [2][5]. Short-term Risks - The first risk is tax-driven selling, as investors holding substantial unrealized gains may sell before year-end to benefit from long-term capital gains tax rates, leading to potential profit-taking in early January [8]. - The second risk involves a strengthening dollar, driven by strong GDP growth data, which typically exerts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like silver [9]. - The third risk is the increase in margin requirements announced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which could reduce leverage and speculative demand, although current margin levels are still lower than those seen during the 2011 silver price crash [10][11]. - The fourth risk is technical selling due to silver being perceived as "overbought," although this assessment is challenged by the underlying demand from the solar industry [12]. - The fifth risk is the potential for copper to replace silver in industrial applications, particularly in solar manufacturing, although this transition would take several years [14]. Market Dynamics - A technical pressure is anticipated from the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may force passive funds to sell approximately 9% of their silver futures positions, coinciding with the tax-driven selling window [17]. Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for silver remains strong, supported by structural supply-demand imbalances. Current spot prices in markets like Dubai and Shanghai are significantly higher than COMEX futures prices, indicating tightness in the physical market [19]. - Investment demand is also robust, with speculative net long positions in silver being lower than in gold, suggesting room for price increases. Silver ETFs are seeing renewed inflows, indicating a shift towards silver as a monetary asset [21]. - The solar industry is projected to drive substantial increases in silver demand, with expectations of 290 million ounces in 2025 and 450 million ounces by 2030, marking a significant change in the market dynamics after years of stagnant demand [21][24].

截至11月25日，全球最大的白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust的白银持仓量为15,582.33吨，较前一交易日增加70.52吨，前一交易日的持仓为15511.81 吨。 （文章来源：新华财经） | Net Assets of Fund | $25,644,510,840 | Fund Inception | Apr 21, 2006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | as of Nov 25, 2025 | | | | | | | Asset Class | Commodity | | Exchange | NYSE Arca | | | | | | Bloomberg Index Ticker | SLVRLN | | Reference Benchmark | LBMA Silver Price | | | | | | Shares Outstanding | 552,200,000 | | Indicative Basket Amount | 45,347.10 | as of Nov 25, 2025 | | | as of Nov 25, 2025 | ...

Core Insights - As of October 8, the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased its holdings by 19.76 tons, bringing the total holdings to 15,415.53 tons [1] Summary by Category - **ETF Holdings** - iShares Silver Trust's holdings rose by 19.76 tons [1] - Current total holdings stand at 15,415.53 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, is experiencing a positive trend due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with gold showing reduced sensitivity to these changes while silver remains highly responsive [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold futures saw a slight increase of 0.46%, while silver futures rose by 1.89% [1]. - Analysts indicate that silver's price is significantly influenced by its industrial applications and domestic macroeconomic policies, leading to greater volatility compared to gold [1]. - The strong performance of copper is also contributing positively to silver prices, as both metals often exhibit correlated price movements [1]. Group 2: Silver Demand and Market Sentiment - The solar photovoltaic industry's explosive growth has increased silver demand, with photovoltaic silver paste accounting for over 20% of total silver demand [2]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to exceed 5,000 tons by 2025, driven by demand from electric vehicles and 5G electronics [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 to below 90, indicating a relative undervaluation of silver compared to gold, attracting more investment into silver [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Upcoming U.S. PCE data is a focal point for the market, with expectations that core PCE year-on-year growth will fall to around 3.0%, aligning with the Fed's "soft landing" scenario [3]. - Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell have shifted market expectations towards a dovish stance, with significant anticipation for rate cuts in September and December 2025 [3][4]. - The market has nearly fully priced in the Fed's expected rate cuts, leading to a cautious outlook on the continued rebound of precious metals [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold and Silver - In the context of ongoing geopolitical instability and the trend of "de-dollarization," central bank gold purchases are expected to support long-term gold price increases [4][5]. - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong due to uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions, which are likely to benefit gold prices [5]. - The low correlation of gold with other asset classes enhances its appeal for portfolio diversification and risk hedging, sustaining ongoing demand for gold investments [5].