1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan - Qualification Number: F3075616 - Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] 2. Key Data - Weekly Production and Changes Silicon Manganese - National weekly production is 18.82 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1015 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.24% [3] - Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 9.62 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.13% [3] - Ningxia's weekly production is 4.44 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1050 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.19% [3] - Guangxi's weekly production is 0.98 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 525 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.78% [3] - Guizhou's weekly production is 1.24 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 280 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.63% [3] - Yunnan's weekly production is 0.50 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1750 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3] - Other regions' weekly production is 2.04 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 420 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.28% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production is 9.98 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6510 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.54% [3] - Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 3.55 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 630 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.70% [3] - Ningxia's weekly production is 2.46 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2590 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.18% [3] - Shaanxi's weekly production is 1.93 million tons, with no week - on - week change and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.23% [3] - Qinghai's weekly production is 1.09 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2030 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.33% [3] - Gansu's weekly production is 0.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 910 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.51% [3] - Other regions' weekly production is 0.01 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.00% [3] 3. Data Explanation - The update date of Ganglian terminal data is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week. The data source is Mysteel and is sorted out by Zhongtai Futures [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, the market shows various trends and risks, and different trading strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each commodity [5][7][9] - Some commodities have experienced significant price changes, and investors are advised to take corresponding profit - taking or risk - control measures [8][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Previous trading day: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.34%, 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.02% respectively [5] - Market situation: The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The IMF slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for this year. The macro - economy has stable data but weak recovery momentum, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] - Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6] Stock Index Futures - Previous trading day: Stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 1.14%, 0.09%, 2.93%, and 2.16% respectively [7] - Market situation: The domestic economy is stable but has weak recovery momentum, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market [7] - Strategy: It is expected that volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8] Precious Metals - Previous trading day: The closing price of the gold main contract was 938.98, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 949.76; the closing price of the silver main contract was 11,533, up 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,732 [9] - Market situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected Fed rate cuts also support precious metals. However, the recent increase has been significant [9] - Strategy: Previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated for profit [10] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Previous trading day: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,050 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [11] - Market situation: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. Supply capacity is still excessive, and recent output has declined. Rebar inventory is higher than last year. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to rebar [11][12] - Strategy: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change. Investors can consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [12] Iron Ore - Previous trading day: Iron ore futures corrected significantly. The spot price of PB fines was 778 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special fines was 700 yuan/ton [14] - Market situation: National pig iron production supports demand. Supply has increased since the second quarter, but imports and domestic production are still down year - on - year. Port inventory is lower than last year. In the short term, supply - demand supports prices, but may weaken in the medium term [14] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [14] Coking Coal and Coke - Previous trading day: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. Coking coal supply pressure is not significant, and demand shows some improvement. Coke prices have been adjusted, and the first - round increase is gradually taking effect [16][17] - Market situation: Coking coal production is normal, and demand for replenishment exists. Coke production and demand are relatively stable [16][17] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [17] Ferroalloys - Previous trading day: The manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.14% to 5,738 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.44% to 5,378 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined [19] - Market situation: Manganese ore shipments from Gabon decreased, and Australian ore supply increased. Port manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and prices stabilized at a low level. Ferroalloy production costs increased, but demand was weak, and supply was excessive in the short term [19][20] - Strategy: In the short term, supply may remain excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [20] Crude Oil - Previous trading day: INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the expected signing of a Middle - East peace agreement [21] - Market situation: CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on crude oil. US oil and gas rig counts decreased. The Russia - Ukraine war continues to support prices, but the expected peace agreement in the Middle East is negative for prices [21][22] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the main crude oil contract [23] Fuel Oil - Previous trading day: Fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The spot spreads of Asian ultra - low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils declined. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and there is a shortage of medium - sulfur fuel oil [24] - Market situation: The Russia - Ukraine war supports prices, but the easing of Middle - East geopolitical risks leads to a decline in crude oil and fuel oil [24] - Strategy: Expand the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils for the main fuel oil contract [25] Synthetic Rubber - Previous trading day: The synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.42%. The mainstream price in Shandong decreased to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [26] - Market situation: The raw material side is bearish, and private supply is expected to increase. The utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity is high, demand is better than expected, and inventory shows different trends [26] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate [27] Natural Rubber - Previous trading day: The main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber fell 0.97% and 0.79% respectively. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,300 yuan/ton, and the basis widened [28] - Market situation: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment is bearish. Supply disturbances have slowed down, and demand from tire factories has decreased during the holiday. After the holiday, supply disturbances are uncertain, and demand may recover [28] - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] PVC - Previous trading day: The PVC main contract fell 0.43%. Spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [30] - Market situation: The oversupply situation persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. Supply capacity utilization decreased, demand from downstream industries was weak, and inventory increased [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [30] Urea - Previous trading day: The urea main contract fell 0.50%. The price in Shandong Linyi was stable at 1,520 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31] - Market situation: After the holiday, focus on exports and cost changes. Supply has increased, and demand from downstream products has fluctuated slightly. Inventory is higher than expected [31] - Strategy: The downward space is limited [32] PX - Previous trading day: The PX main contract fell 1.58%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 220 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [33] - Market situation: PX load increased, and some devices are under maintenance. Imports increased in August. In the short term, supply - demand is looser, and the cost side is weak, but the PXN spread is relatively strong [33] - Strategy: PX may adjust weakly in the short term. Pay attention to position management, external crude oil changes, and macro - policy changes [33] PTA - Previous trading day: The PTA2601 main contract fell 1.6%. Supply decreased due to some device shutdowns, and demand increased as polyester load rose. Processing fees were under pressure [34][35] - Market situation: In the short term, processing fees may improve, and inventory is low, but demand improvement is limited, and external crude oil prices are weak [35] - Strategy: PTA may oscillate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [35] Ethylene Glycol - Previous trading day: The ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.24%. Supply increased as some devices restarted, and inventory increased. Demand improvement was limited, and the cost of crude oil was weak [36] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [36] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Short Fibers - Previous trading day: The short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 1.24%. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand improved slightly. Cost support was weak [37][38] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [38] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Bottle Chips - Previous trading day: The bottle - chip 2512 main contract fell 1.17%. Supply increased, and demand from the downstream soft - drink industry decreased slightly, but exports remained high [39] - Market situation: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to risk control [39] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control [39] Lithium Carbonate - Previous trading day: The main contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. Inventory is gradually decreasing but remains high [40] - Market situation: In the short term, it may return to a supply - surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [40][41] - Strategy: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [41] Copper - Previous trading day: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low due to uncertainties in US tariffs on China. The spot price increased, but downstream buying was weak [43] - Market situation: The closure of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Goldman Sachs' price forecast is lower than expected. Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties [43] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the Shanghai copper main contract [44] Tin - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.76% to 280,000 yuan/ton. The supply from the mine end is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Inventory is decreasing [45] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] Nickel - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton. Concerns about supply resurfaced, but the price of high - grade nickel ore is supported. Stainless - steel consumption is weak, and inventory is relatively high [48] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Previous trading day: The main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil fell 1.16% and 0.51% respectively. The spot prices were stable. US and Brazilian soybean production is progressing smoothly, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [50] - Market situation: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the profit of oil mills has declined. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and soybean oil consumption is under pressure [50][51] - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options after adjustment. Temporarily hold off on trading soybean oil [51] Palm Oil - Previous trading day: Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. Inventory in September increased, and exports in October showed an increase. Chinese imports increased in August, and inventory is at a medium level [52] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Previous trading day: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has purchased a large amount of Australian rapeseed. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil increased in August. Inventory is at different levels [54][55] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] Cotton - Previous trading day: Domestic cotton oscillated, and the outer - market cotton rebounded. US cotton production is expected to increase, and there are concerns about Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic cotton production is expected to increase significantly [57][58] - Market situation: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure. The domestic - foreign price difference is large, and there is hedging pressure [58] - Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [59] Sugar - Previous trading day: Zhengzhou sugar fell to a new low, and the outer - market sugar rebounded. Brazilian sugar production increased in September, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the new season. Chinese imports increased [60] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The short - term price may have support [61][62] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [62] Apples - Previous trading day: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. Early - maturing apples had different price trends, and late - maturing apples are about to be listed. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly [63] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [63][64] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [64] Live Pigs - Previous trading day: The national average price of live pigs rose to 10.89 yuan/kg. The supply in the north has increased, and the price has stabilized and rebounded. The supply in the south has increased, and the price is stable. The inventory of sows has decreased slightly [65] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] Eggs - Previous trading day: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was stable, and that in the main sales areas decreased slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory of laying hens is at a high level. The consumption after the holiday is weak [67] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] Corn and Corn Starch - Previous trading day: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. US corn harvesting is progressing smoothly. Domestic demand for corn is slightly increasing, and the inventory of corn starch is at a high level [69][70] - Market situation: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71] - Strategy: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the black building materials sector is "Oscillation" in the medium term [5]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the deepening of the peak season, the various links in the industry chain, especially the mid - upstream links, still show seasonal improvement characteristics. As the end of the month and the fourth quarter approach, policy expectations are strengthening. Against this background, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will maintain the current trend, mainly oscillating, with enhanced support for staged upward movement [1][5]. Summary by Related Categories Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: High - level demand provides support, factory inventories increase, and pre - holiday replenishment is obvious. The fundamental pressure is not significant, but the peak - season demand for building materials needs further verification, which limits the upward space. Affected by pre - holiday capital disturbances, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. Port trading volume decreased to 111.1 (-43.9) million tons, and the price of PB powder was 795 (+2) yuan/ton [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand both increase again, and steel enterprises have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the spot price. Short - term oscillation is expected. The average tax - free price of broken materials in East China is 2187 (+0) yuan/ton [1][8]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Spot coal prices are rising rapidly, coking profits are continuously shrinking, and mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a new round of price increases. Although steel mills' coke inventories are moderately high, pre - holiday raw material inventories continue to increase, and the pre - holiday bullish expectation in the market is strong. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price at Rizhao Port is 1490 yuan/ton (+40) [1][2][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mine production remains cautious, supply recovery is slow, and the upward height is limited. At the same time, the pre - National Day replenishment by the middle and lower reaches can still be maintained in the short term, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low, with strong fundamental support. Pre - holiday coal prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1280 yuan/ton (+20) [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: During the peak season, the downstream procurement demand is expected to support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is relatively pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still room for the price center to decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The ex - factory price in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton (-30) [2][14]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and firm cost support the price performance, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, there is still downward pressure on the price. The ex - factory price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5330 yuan/ton (0) [2][15]. Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream destocking, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward. The mainstream large - board price in North China is 1210 yuan/ton (+50) [2][10]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - level changes and have wide - range oscillations. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1230 yuan/ton (-) [2][13]. Commodity Indexes - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased. The commodity index was 2249.48 (+0.75%), the commodity 20 index was 2524.42 (+0.75%), and the industrial products index was 2269.30 (+1.07%). The steel industry chain index on the same day was 2054.48, with a daily increase of +0.37%, a 5 - day decrease of -0.06%, a 1 - month increase of +1.22%, and a year - to - date decrease of -2.55% [100][102].