机构：东方财富证券 研究员：李淼 蒙古国的"资源民族主义"是采矿业面临的核心政治风险，政治演变和资源紧密相连，近两年"资源民族 主义"倾向进一步强化。矿业贡献了蒙古国GDP 增长的显著部分（如2024 年采矿和运输业合计贡献GDP 增长2.7%），财政高度依赖矿业税收，使得政府极度重视对该领域的控制。随着矿产资源价格上涨， 蒙古国的"资源民族主义"倾向进一步强化，2024 年通过《国家财富基金法》及《矿产法》修正案，规 定国家有权无偿获得战略矿床最高50%的股份（若国家出资勘探），或限制单一实体持股不超过34%。 但公司作为成熟的民营企业，受冲击相对可控，且其多元化战略有助于分散风险。 【投资建议】 我们认为，公司在蒙古国焦煤领域的头部公司，拥有高品质硬焦煤资源和紧邻中国市场的地理优势。公 司已经不仅仅是一家煤炭公司，收购的BKH 金矿25Q4正式投产、已经实质性开启第二增长曲线，2026 年有望贡献过亿美元的净利润，并且随着黄金和铜矿业务逐渐开发挖潜，有望发展成为蒙古国多元化的 综合性矿业公司，并且作为蒙古国民营公司，受到资源民族主义的影响相对可控。我们预计公司25-27 年归母净利分别0.93/2.63/ ...

MONGOL MINING（00975）深度研究 黑金稳基，黄金启航，积极转型多元化 矿企 2026 年 01 月 26 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 买入（首次） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 相对指数表现 -40% -12% 16% 44% 72% 100% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 MONGOL MINING 恒生指数 | 基本数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万港元） | 13,116.12 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 13,116.12 | | 52 周最高/最低（港元） 14.17/4.45 | | | 52 周最高/最低（PE） | 22.45/2.48 | | 52 周最高/最低（PB） | 1.54/0.48 | | 52 周涨幅（%） | 184.27 | | 52 周换手率（%） | 74.58 | | 注：数据更新日期截止 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | 相关研究 公 司 研 究 / 煤 炭 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 煤炭业务：作为公司的压舱石业务，地位稳固，提质增效。公司是 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the leading coal producer in Mongolia, with a strong geographical advantage near the Chinese market. It is diversifying beyond coal into gold and copper, which are expected to contribute significantly to future profits [5][13]. - The gold business, initiated with the BKH gold mine, is projected to generate over $100 million in net profit by 2026, marking a substantial second growth curve for the company [5][6]. - The copper business, through the acquisition of UCC, is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, with plans for feasibility studies on the White Hill copper deposit [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest private mining enterprise in Mongolia, primarily engaged in coal production and export, with ongoing diversification into gold and copper [13]. - It was the first Mongolian company to list on the international capital market, with significant assets located in the Tavan Tolgoi coalfield [13][15]. Coal Business - The company operates two major coal mines, UHG and BN, with substantial coal reserves of 340 million tons and 272 million tons respectively, primarily producing high-quality hard coking coal [24][25]. - In 2024, the company achieved a peak raw coal production of 16.34 million tons, with a significant increase in sales through competitive bidding [39][41]. - The average selling price of coal is influenced by domestic market trends, with recent prices at $106 and $121 per ton for 2023 and 2024 respectively [44]. Gold Business - The BKH gold mine commenced commercial production in September 2025, with expectations to reach full production of 85,000 ounces by 2027 [5][6]. - The low All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of the gold business positions it as a high-margin contributor to the company's overall profitability [5]. Copper Business - The acquisition of a 50.5% stake in UCC provides access to the White Hill copper-gold project, which contains approximately 185,000 tons of copper and 52,000 ounces of gold [5][6]. - The company plans to conduct feasibility studies on the copper deposit to further reduce reliance on coal [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of $0.93 million, $2.63 million, and $3.77 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of less than 7 for 2026 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable price range for gold between $3,200 and $3,500 per ounce, with a focus on ETF inflows as a key driver for future price movements [1][4]. Core Insights - Gold prices have stabilized after a rapid increase, primarily driven by strong ETF inflows, but recent outflows indicate competition from other asset classes [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 1% year-on-year increase in physical gold demand, driven entirely by investment demand, particularly from ETFs, which added 227 tons [2][4]. - Central bank demand decreased by 21% year-on-year, while jewelry demand fell by 19%, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [1][22][31]. Summary by Sections ETF Inflows and Demand - The report highlights that ETF inflows have reached their highest level since Q1 2022, with North America and Asia seeing significant contributions, particularly from China [4][15]. - Despite strong inflows earlier in the year, there have been 11 out of the last 13 trading days with outflows, indicating a shift in investor preference towards equities [5][39]. Physical Demand Trends - The first quarter of 2025 recorded a total gold demand of 1,206 tons, the highest for a first quarter since 2016, primarily due to strong ETF inflows [2][4]. - Demand for gold bars and coins increased by 3% year-on-year, reaching 325 tons, with notable contributions from China and Europe [15][18]. Central Bank and Jewelry Demand - Central bank gold purchases fell by 21% year-on-year, with Poland being the largest buyer, while China’s purchases slowed down significantly [22][31]. - Jewelry demand has weakened considerably, particularly in China and India, with declines of 32% and 25% respectively, attributed to high prices affecting consumer purchasing power [31][32]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report suggests that macroeconomic factors have less influence on gold prices compared to physical demand trends, with a potential 'stagflation' scenario providing a favorable environment for gold [35][36]. - The relationship between gold prices and real yields has weakened, indicating that uncertainty and physical demand are now the primary drivers [37][38].