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信用周报:调整后,二永的性价比如何?-20250915
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 13:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bond market continued to adjust, with credit bond sentiment generally pessimistic and the adjustment amplitude greater than that of interest rates. The overall decline of credit bonds has exceeded the previous round of adjustment at the end of July, and some maturities have even exceeded the bear - flat stage at the end of February this year. Coupon assets have a certain cost - effectiveness [2][5][10][33]. - Currently, there are some opportunities to participate in 2 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds after adjustment. The sinking of weak - quality urban investment bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years can continue to be participated in, and the riding income of varieties with a yield of more than 2.2% and a maturity of about 3 years is quite considerable. For ultra - long - term bonds, the yield has a certain cost - effectiveness after adjustment, but only allocation - type institutions are recommended to participate moderately [5][33]. - The second batch of science - innovation ETFs was listed last week, with enthusiastic subscription sentiment, which may become a marginal stabilizing force for the credit market. However, the boosting effect on the bond market is currently limited [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Adjustment - In the first half of last week, the stock - bond "see - saw" effect was still evident, and the news of fund fee adjustment made the market sentiment sluggish, with yields rising continuously. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate exceeded the phased top point of 1.80%. In the second half of the week, the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, and yields recovered somewhat, but overall, it closed down for the whole week [2][10]. - Credit bonds weakened in sync with interest rates, and the decline of most maturities of credit bonds exceeded that of interest rates. The anti - decline attribute of credit bonds was weak in this long - lasting bear market [2][10]. - From September 8th to September 12th, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y Treasury bonds increased by 0.4BP, 2.1BP, 1.0BP, 0.5BP, and 0.2BP respectively, while the yields of the same - maturity AAA medium - term notes increased by 3.8BP, 4.8BP, 6.2BP, 3.1BP, and 2.5BP respectively, and the yields of AA + medium - term notes increased by 4.8BP, 5.8BP, 6.2BP, 7.1BP, and 3.5BP respectively [10]. - The market of ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened synchronously, with the decline mostly exceeding that of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The yields of AAA/AA + 10Y medium - term notes increased by 8.53BP and 7.53BP respectively, the yields of AAA/AA + 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 6.36BP and 5.35BP respectively, the yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds increased by 10.61BP, while the yield of 10Y Treasury bonds increased by 4.10BP [12][13]. 3.2 Performance of Secondary Perpetual (Er Yong) Bonds - The market of secondary perpetual bonds weakened synchronously, and the "volatility amplifier" feature was very obvious. The decline of 1Y - 5Y was significantly higher than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the decline of the ultra - long - term part was also higher than that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][16]. - From the perspective of the curve term structure, the parts within 1 year and over 7 years were relatively flat, and the curve steepened the most from 2 to 6 years. The yields of 1 - 5 years, 7 years, and 10 years of AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 6.09BP, 8.75BP, 9.97BP, 10.32BP, 9.71BP, 8.81BP, and 10.61BP respectively [16]. - Currently, the part of the curve with a maturity of 3 years and above is still 32BP - 42BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, the yield points of maturities over 2 years have reached new highs, and the adjustment amplitude is higher than that of the sharp decline at the end of July. The yields of maturities over 4 years have even exceeded the bear - flat position at the end of February this year [3][16]. - In terms of active trading, the sentiment was the most pessimistic in the first half of the week and improved marginally in the second half, but overall, the short - selling force was stronger. From September 8th to September 12th, the low - valuation trading proportion of secondary perpetual bonds was 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 27.50%, 100.00% respectively; the average trading duration was 0.66 years, 0.65 years, 0.57 years, 3.67 years, 6.54 years respectively [17]. 3.3 Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - The institutional selling market of ultra - long - term credit bonds strengthened for 4 consecutive days and only improved on Friday. Institutions were more eager to sell ultra - long - term credit bonds last week. The discount amplitude of ultra - long - term credit bonds was not small, and there were also transactions with a discount of more than 4BP. About 25% of the discount trading amplitudes were over 4BP last week [4][21]. - The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds was very weak. High - activity trading was mainly concentrated in some short - term real - estate and financial defective individual bonds, as well as weak - quality urban investment bonds. About 35% of the trading amplitudes below the valuation were over 4BP last week, mainly real - estate bonds such as Vanke and Longfor, and there were also central - enterprise bonds like AVIC Industry Finance, all of which were short - term. In addition, many weak - quality urban investment bonds, such as AA(2), AA, AA - with maturities of 2 - 5 years, also had relatively large trading amplitudes below the valuation [4][25]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Public funds significantly sold secondary perpetual bonds last week. They reduced their holdings of credit bonds overall, with a net selling scale of 26.2 billion yuan, mainly selling bonds with maturities of 3 - 5 years. They significantly reduced their holdings of secondary perpetual bonds, with a total net selling of 64.3 billion yuan of bank secondary capital bonds [4][27]. - Allocation - type institutions had strong buying power after the adjustment. Wealth management, insurance, and other types of institutions net - bought 14.3 billion, 15.3 billion, and 29.2 billion yuan of bank secondary capital bonds respectively. In addition, insurance and wealth management institutions net - bought 12.8 billion and 20.9 billion yuan of credit bonds respectively, mainly bonds with maturities within 3 years [4][27]. 3.5 Impact of Science - innovation ETFs - The second batch of science - innovation ETFs was listed last week, with enthusiastic subscription sentiment. On September 12th, the second batch of 14 science - innovation bond ETFs started to raise funds, and most products had good subscription situations. It is expected that the raised funds can exceed 40 billion yuan, and the product scale is expected to continue to grow this week, pushing up the valuation of component bonds [30]. - However, the boosting effect of the second batch of science - innovation ETFs on the bond market is currently limited. The performance of listed credit ETF products was average last week. The weekly -环比 scale of credit benchmark - making ETF products has shrunk for 4 consecutive weeks since the market adjustment in the second week of August, and the weekly -环比 scale of science - innovation ETF products last week was significantly weaker than that in August. The unit net values of the above two types of credit bond ETFs were still in the red last week [30].
“聪明钱”的布阵
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-08-08 12:13
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market movements in both US and Chinese stock markets, highlighting the volatility in the US market and the resilience of the A-share market [1][2] - A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, indicating investor confidence despite external market fluctuations [1][6] - The article notes that the A-share market's rebound is driven by policy support and structural reforms, with a shift in focus from traditional sectors to advanced manufacturing and technology [7][8] Group 2 - Analysts believe that China's fiscal and foreign exchange reserves are stable, providing sufficient policy space to address potential economic fluctuations [4] - The Chinese economy has shown resilience, with a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, and the IMF has raised its growth forecast for China to 4.8% [3][4] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced asset allocation, particularly in RMB assets, as a prudent strategy in the current risk environment [2][5] Group 3 - The US stock market is experiencing a "faith versus valuation" tug-of-war, with high valuations in the TMT sector raising concerns about systemic risks [10] - Despite strong earnings from tech giants, the concentration of market capitalization in a few companies poses risks, as their earnings contribution is not proportional to their market value [10] - The article suggests that the current market dynamics require a shift in investment strategy from short-term rebounds to identifying structural opportunities [8][9]
可控核聚变概念异动拉升 科创类ETF、科技成长类ETF、新能源与碳中和相关ETF盘点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-12 07:03
Group 1 - The controllable nuclear fusion sector has shown significant activity, with stocks like Rongfa Nuclear Power hitting the daily limit, indicating strong market interest [1] - On June 11, the controllable nuclear fusion sector experienced a decline of 0.92% but quickly rebounded, reflecting high investor attention [1] - Recent data from Wind shows a correlation between the recent performance of the controllable nuclear fusion sector and other popular sectors like renewable energy and biotechnology, with the biotechnology index rising by 10.33% in the past month [1] Group 2 - The controllable nuclear fusion sector is still in the research and commercialization phase, and its correlation with more mature sectors like renewable energy and technology needs further observation [2] - Investors can indirectly participate in the nuclear fusion sector through technology growth ETFs or renewable energy-related funds, despite the absence of a dedicated controllable nuclear fusion ETF [3] Group 3 - Suggested ETF options for participating in nuclear fusion investments include technology innovation ETFs that cover high-growth technology companies related to the nuclear fusion supply chain, such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Index [4] - Specific ETFs related to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Index include the Kweichow Moutai Science and Technology 50 ETF and others, which contain manufacturers and suppliers relevant to the nuclear fusion industry [5] Group 4 - The nuclear fusion technology is a crucial component of new energy, and breakthroughs in this area will significantly impact carbon neutrality goals [7] - The China Securities Low Carbon Economy Theme Index includes stocks related to nuclear fusion technology, such as Yangtze Power and CATL, which can be considered for investment [7]