事件：公司公告 25 年业绩预增：归母净利 31.5-33.4 亿同比+68.0%～78.0%， 扣非归母净利 29.9-31.7 亿同比+72.0%～82.0%。结合行业和公司近况，我们 点评如下： ❑ 风险提示：同行竞争加剧、算力客户开拓及订单导入不及预期，产能扩张不 及预期。 财务数据与估值 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 深南电路（002916.SZ） Q4 环降源于新产能爬坡、费用增加，静待 H1 业绩环比高增 TMT 及中小盘/电子 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 13526 | 17907 | 23817 | 32153 | 43406 | | 同比增长 | -3% | 32% | 33% | 35% | 35% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1398 | 2028 | 3530 | 6114 | 8921 | | 同比增长 | -19% | 45% | 74% | 73% | 46% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities suggests that the PCB industry in 2026 will continue to present long-term investment opportunities in sectors such as computing power boards, CCL, upstream raw materials, equipment, AI edge applications, and domestic substitution. The current AI-driven technological innovation cycle is expected to last longer and generate broader market demand, with optimism from overseas CSP manufacturers regarding AI capital expenditure for 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The PCB sector experienced a steady upward trend driven by AI computing demand in early 2025, followed by fluctuations due to uncertainties in training-side computing power demand and geopolitical factors. The overall performance of the PCB sector showed significant growth, with a 149.9% increase year-to-date, outperforming the SW electronics sector by 101.2 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 132.2 percentage points [1] - The PCB industry is currently in an expansion phase, with strong downstream AI computing demand. Despite expected weaknesses in mobile and automotive sectors in 2026, the demand for servers and switches remains robust due to AI infrastructure upgrades [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall utilization rate of PCB manufacturers in the second half of 2025 was between 93-97%, with leading manufacturers maintaining optimistic order visibility for over three months. The industry is entering a new capacity expansion phase, focusing on high-end HDI, high multi-layer boards, and high-end substrates [2] - The demand for high-end HDI and high multi-layer boards is rapidly increasing, with a projected 25% year-on-year growth in AI capital expenditure, amounting to approximately $550 billion in 2026. The server PCB market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.7% from 2024 to 2029, reaching $25.7 billion [3] Group 3: Product and Price Trends - The prices of copper and gold are expected to remain high, with upward trends in copper foil processing fees and fiberglass cloth. The overall price outlook for the PCB/CCL industry remains bullish for 2026 [2] - The AI-driven demand for CCL is leading to significant upgrades in specifications, with the high-speed CCL market projected to reach approximately $8 billion in 2026, driven by a CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2027 [6] Group 4: Upstream Materials and Equipment - The demand for high-end products in upstream materials is accelerating, with significant upgrades in electronic copper foil, resin, and fiberglass cloth. The supply of high-end materials is becoming increasingly tight [7] - Domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the PCB expansion cycle and the accelerated domestic substitution of high-end equipment, particularly in drilling and laser drilling sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The AI industry chain is becoming a significant profit generator, with major tech companies competing fiercely in this space, leading to a surge in stock prices, particularly in the A-share market. Group 1: Stock Performance - Industrial Fulian, a leading AI server manufacturer, saw its stock price hit a historical high, with a market capitalization exceeding 700 billion yuan [2] - The company's market value recently crossed 600 billion yuan just two days prior, and it was around 200 billion yuan at the beginning of 2023 [3] - The stock has experienced a remarkable increase of over 117% in the last three months and nearly 70% year-to-date [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Industrial Fulian is expected to report a net profit of 11.96 billion to 12.16 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.84% to 39.12% [8] - For the second quarter, the anticipated net profit is between 6.73 billion and 6.93 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.72% to 52.11%, marking a historical high for the period [9] - The significant growth in earnings is primarily driven by the explosion of AI-related business [10] Group 3: Business Segments - The cloud computing segment is expected to see revenue growth of over 50% year-on-year, with AI server revenue increasing by over 60% and revenue from cloud service provider servers growing by more than 150% [11] - In the high-speed switch segment, revenue from 800G switches in the second quarter reached three times the total for the entire year of 2024, driven by rising AI demand [12] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Global cloud giants are continuously investing in AI infrastructure, with Industrial Fulian serving major clients like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, and being a core foundry for NVIDIA's AI servers [15] - Following a security risk issue with NVIDIA's H20 chip, there was a temporary decline in Industrial Fulian's stock price [17] - The market is seeing increased expectations for domestic chip replacements, positively impacting semiconductor stocks [19] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that the domestic advanced process technology is evolving, and AI chips are likely to shift towards domestic wafer foundries, creating significant opportunities for core assets in the AI era [20] - The A-share computing power industry chain is viewed as a rare growth sector, with expectations that the ongoing commercialization of AI will enhance its valuation framework [20]