Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with sectors such as servers, optical modules, medical devices, and GPUs leading the gains, while rare earth concepts faced significant losses [1] - The latest report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlights that the upgrade of AI computing hardware architecture is driving rapid growth in demand for high-end HDI and high-layer boards, with global computing power demand undergoing systematic expansion [1][2] - CICC estimates that the AI-related PCB market size is expected to reach $5.6 billion in 2025 and $10 billion in 2026 [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, PCB production capacity is accelerating, but the efficiency of capacity release is lagging behind the growth rate of AI demand, leading to a sustained supply-demand gap in the medium term [2] - North American cloud vendors are continuing to expand capital expenditures, indicating strong demand for AI computing power, which is expected to benefit the domestic computing power supply chain significantly [2] - The cloud computing 50 ETF (516630) tracks an index with a high AI computing content, covering popular computing concepts such as optical modules, computing leasing, data centers, AI servers, and liquid cooling [2]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI computing power is driving a significant increase in both volume and price in the PCB market, with expectations for the AI PCB market to reach $5.6 billion in 2025 and $10 billion in 2026 [2][8]. Demand Side - AI-driven computing infrastructure and smart device innovations are expected to boost the global PCB market value to $73.57 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [5][7]. - The demand for AI servers and GPUs/ASICs is projected to provide new momentum for long-term growth in the PCB market, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% from 2025 to 2029, reaching $94.7 billion by 2029 [5][8]. - The penetration rate of AI servers is expected to reach 15% by 2026, with shipments projected to exceed 2.1 million units [7]. Supply Side - PCB manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion, with a total investment of approximately 32 billion yuan announced by seven listed companies for PCB capacity expansion [2][35]. - Despite the acceleration in capacity expansion, the efficiency of capacity release is expected to lag behind the growth rate of AI demand, leading to a sustained supply-demand gap in the medium term [2][35]. Technological Innovations - Continuous iterations in technology are anticipated, with a focus on reducing dielectric constant (dk) and dielectric loss (df) to overcome transmission bottlenecks [4][52]. - The integration of advanced materials and new processes, such as CoWoP and substrate-like PCBs, is expected to drive further growth in the PCB market [4][52]. Market Dynamics - The global PCB market is heavily concentrated in Asia, with China leading in market share. The Asian PCB market is projected to reach $67.9 billion in 2024, accounting for 93.1% of the global market [35][38]. - The demand for high-layer and HDI PCBs is increasing due to the requirements of AI servers, which typically have more than 20 layers and require ultra-low loss materials [35][42]. CCL Market - The CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) market is also experiencing high demand, with the global market expected to reach $15.08 billion in 2024. Major suppliers include companies like Kingboard and Shengyi Technology [37][40]. - The leading CCL manufacturers are expanding their production capacity to meet the rising demand driven by AI infrastructure [40][41].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China PCB (Printed Circuit Board) sector**, highlighting a **47% rally** in the sector over the past three months driven by increasing demand for **artificial intelligence (AI)** applications [1] - The demand for **High Layer Count (HLC) PCB** and **High Density Interconnect (HDI)** is particularly strong due to growth in **cloud service providers' (CSP)** AI capital expenditure budgets and ASIC server projects [1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Dynamics**: - Strong demand from sectors such as **automotive**, **home appliances**, and **industrial applications** supports low-to-mid range order momentum, while demand for **smartphones** and **PCs** remains lukewarm, limiting growth for **Flexible Printed Circuit (FPC)** and **Substrate-Like PCB (SLP)** [1] - The **PCB production value** is expected to grow **6% in 2025E**, following a decline of **15%** in 2023 and a recovery of **7%** in 2024 [9] - The sector is anticipated to enter a mild **AI-driven upcycle**, with a **5% CAGR** from 2024 to 2029, compared to **2%** from 2018 to 2023 [9] - **Substrate Market**: - **BT (Bismaleimide-Triazine)** substrate makers in China are experiencing a dip in utilization rates, but a mild recovery is expected due to tariff-induced demand [2] - **ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film)** substrate demand is recovering globally, which is accelerating domestic semiconductor qualifications from local suppliers [2] - **Copper Clad Laminate (CCL)**: - Leading CCL makers in China are operating at full capacity, with a **10-15% price increase** expected in H225E due to rising raw material costs [3] - Demand for high-end CCL is driven by AI server projects and general-purpose server replacements [3] Stock Preferences and Recommendations - **Stock Ratings**: - Total EPS for the coverage is raised by **12%/14%/19%** for 2025-27E due to higher utilization and pricing from robust AI demand [4] - Price targets for companies in the sector have been increased by **47%–118%** based on higher EPS and upcycle PE multiples [4] - Preferred stocks include **Shennan** and **Shengyi Tech** due to their visibility in AI orders, while **FastPrint** has been downgraded to Neutral with a significant EPS cut due to delayed breakeven in ABF [4] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: - The **server/data storage** segment is projected to grow at a **12% CAGR** from 2024 to 2029, becoming the largest and fastest-growing downstream application by output value [11] - The **automotive sector** is expected to see a **4% CAGR**, driven by electrification and smartification trends [11] - The **consumer electronics** segment is mixed, with near-term strength from subsidies but overall sluggish demand [9] - **Geopolitical Factors**: - Current US tariffs have limited direct exposure for PCB and CCL companies, which have a globally diversified manufacturing footprint [9] - The tariffs may expedite capacity expansion for Chinese producers in Southeast Asia due to the sector's upstream and highly pollutive nature [9] - **AI and Technology Adoption**: - The demand for AI servers is expected to significantly increase, with Nvidia projecting a **100x increase** in compute requirements for inference demand [17] - The introduction of new Nvidia GPUs is anticipated to drive down costs for AI training and inference, further boosting demand for high-end PCBs [17] Conclusion - The China PCB sector is poised for growth driven by AI demand, with specific segments like HLC PCB and HDI expected to outperform. Stock preferences reflect a bullish outlook on companies with strong AI order visibility, while geopolitical factors and market dynamics will continue to shape the landscape.

行 业 研 究 电子 2025 年 08 月 05 日 北美云厂资本开支再次上修，AI 景气度强化 投资要点： 北美云厂商集中披露二季度财报，资本开支再次上修 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 谷歌、微软、Meta、亚马逊均已披露第二季度财报，今年二季度 单季资本开支分别为 224 亿美元/242 亿美元/170 亿美元/322 亿美元， 分别同比+70%/+27%/+101%/+83%，同比仍保持高增速。根据指引，4 家北美云厂 2025 年（自然年）资本开支不同程度上修：（1）谷歌将 2025 全年资本开支从 750 亿美元上调至 850 亿美元，基于强劲的云产 品和服务需求，增加的资本开支反应服务器的额外投资、服务器交付 时间以及数据中心建设步伐的加快。谷歌指引 2026 年资本开支将继续 增长；（2）微软预计下个财季资本开支超过 300 亿美元（环比增长将 超过 24%），对于 2026 财年资本支出的指引未变，2026 财年增长将 较 2025 财年有所放缓，短期资产将增加；（3）Meta 将 2025 年资本 开支区间从 640-720 亿美元调整至 660-720 亿美元，上修了区间下限， 并预期 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the AI PCB sector, indicating strong growth potential driven by AI demand and product upgrades [1][8]. Core Insights - North American cloud service providers (CSPs) have reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, leading to upward revisions in future capital expenditure (Capex) forecasts, indicating sustained demand for AI computing power [1][2]. - The AI PCB product upgrade trend is expected to significantly enhance the average selling price (ASP) of AI PCBs, driven by advancements in technology and increased complexity in design [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that the expansion of AI PCB production capacity is unlikely to lead to oversupply in the short to medium term, as demand continues to outpace supply due to high technical barriers and increasing design specifications [8][9]. Summary by Sections AI Computing Power Trends - Major CSPs like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon have increased their AI Capex forecasts significantly, with Google raising its 2025 Capex from $75 billion to $85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62% [2]. - The demand for AI computing power is expected to remain robust, with significant investments in AI infrastructure across the industry [2]. AI PCB Product Upgrade Trends - The introduction of next-generation AI server products, such as NVIDIA's Rubin series, is anticipated to require higher-layer HDI and advanced CCL materials, which will increase the value of AI PCBs [3][7]. - The report highlights that the complexity and performance requirements of AI PCBs are increasing, leading to a higher demand for advanced materials and manufacturing techniques [7][10]. Impact of PCB Capacity Expansion - A number of PCB manufacturers in China are planning significant capacity expansions to meet the growing demand for AI PCBs, with companies like Huadian and Pengding Holdings announcing substantial investments [8][9]. - The report suggests that the competitive landscape will favor leading manufacturers with established relationships and technological advantages, reinforcing a "stronger gets stronger" trend in the industry [8][9]. Upstream Material Impact - The demand for high-end materials such as M8/M9 CCL and specialty fiberglass is expected to rise sharply, with a projected CAGR of 26% for high-end CCL materials from 2024 to 2026 [10]. - The supply of these materials is currently constrained, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share in high-end product segments [10]. Equipment Demand from PCB Expansion - The expansion of high-end PCB production is expected to drive demand for advanced PCB manufacturing equipment, with the market for PCB-specific equipment projected to grow significantly [11][12]. - Domestic equipment manufacturers are likely to benefit from this trend, particularly in areas such as drilling and exposure equipment, as they seek to replace imported high-end equipment [11][12].

Strategy Overview - The AI industry wave is driving a recovery in PCB demand and technological advancement, with AI computing, edge AI, and new energy vehicles becoming core growth engines for the PCB industry. The demand for multilayer boards with more than 18 layers and HDI is expected to grow by 40.3% and 18.8% year-on-year in 2024, respectively, with a five-year CAGR of 15.7% and 6.4% projected [3][12][26]. Electronics Sector - PCB is known as the "mother of electronic products" and is widely used in various electronic devices. The rapid growth of AI computing is significantly boosting the demand for server-related products, with the server/storage PCB market expected to see a year-on-year growth of 33.1% in 2024, outpacing the overall PCB market growth of 5.8% [43][29][56]. - Recommended stocks in the PCB sector include Jingwang Electronics, Shenghong Technology, Dongshan Precision, and others, while CCL and copper foil sectors also have recommended stocks such as Shengyi Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil [5][12][37]. Machinery Sector - The demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCBs is surging due to the rapid iteration of AI models and smart hardware applications. This has led to increased demand for PCB-specific equipment and materials, with a focus on companies like Dazhu CNC and Chip Quik [6][13]. - The complexity and precision requirements for PCB manufacturing are increasing, leading to higher demand for specialized equipment and materials, particularly in the areas of drilling and solder paste printing [6][13]. Chemical Sector - The growth trend of AI servers is confirmed, leading to higher demands for core materials such as CCL, resin, copper foil, and electronic cloth. This upgrade not only involves physical characteristics but also enhances value and supply chain dynamics [7][13]. - Recommended stocks in the chemical sector include Lianrui New Materials and Dongcai Technology, which are expected to benefit from these trends [7][13]. Market Dynamics - The global PCB market is projected to reach a value of $94.7 billion by 2029, with China accounting for approximately 53% of this market. The demand for high-end PCBs is particularly strong in AI computing and new energy vehicles, which are expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [17][20][59]. - The PCB industry is entering a high prosperity cycle driven by AI computing, automotive electronics, and edge AI, with significant increases in revenue and net profit observed in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [32][38].

Group 1: PCB and Special Glass Fiber Cloth - The price of key materials for PCB upgrades has increased by over 16%, with three domestic companies expected to see profit releases and valuation reassessments [2] - The rapid iteration of PCB and CCL driven by AI development has led to a supply-demand gap for special glass fiber cloth, indicating a strong market demand [4] - The market for special electronic cloth is anticipated to grow rapidly, with domestic manufacturers accelerating their market penetration [5] Group 2: Stablecoins - The scale of stablecoins is expected to reach $3.7 trillion in 3-5 years, with profits comparable to "money printing," highlighting key beneficiary selections [6][8] - The development of compliant stablecoins and payment infrastructure is projected to expand rapidly in the next few years [10] - The strategic significance of developing compliant stablecoins in Hong Kong is noted, with a recommendation to monitor licensing applications and issuance progress [11] Group 3: Huangjiu Industry - The Huangjiu industry is undergoing a structural change, with leading companies focusing on "premiumization," "youthfulness," and "nationalization," suggesting a potential bottoming phase for the industry [12] - The historical cultural significance of Huangjiu is emphasized, indicating a promising outlook for the industry [14] - The concentration of the Huangjiu industry is increasing, with a trend towards strengthening the dominance of leading companies [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The rapid development of AI servers and high-frequency communication networks is driving the demand for large-size, high-layer PCBs and high-frequency copper-clad laminates (CCLs), leading to an accelerated iteration of PCB and CCL products [5][17] - The special glass fiber cloth market is expected to grow rapidly, with domestic manufacturers accelerating their penetration into the market [6] - Traditional glass fiber cloth prices are continuously rising, indicating a recovery in profits [7] Summary by Sections Special Glass Fiber Cloth: AI Catalyzes Demand, Domestic Manufacturers Rise - The development of AI is accelerating the upgrade of PCBs, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance for special glass fiber cloth [14] - The market for Low-Dk and Low-CTE glass fiber cloth is currently dominated by Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers, but domestic companies are increasing their production capacity [6][31] - The demand for special glass fiber cloth is expected to significantly increase during 2025 and 2026, with several domestic manufacturers planning to expand production [6][34] Traditional Glass Fiber Cloth: In a Price Increase Cycle, Profits Continue to Recover - The average price of traditional glass fiber cloth has risen by approximately 8% from the beginning of 2025, with further upward potential [7][35] - The profitability of special glass fiber cloth is higher than that of traditional glass fiber cloth, which is expected to drive profit margins for related manufacturers [35] Investment Recommendations - With the acceleration of chip iterations and the increasing penetration of 800G switches, the demand for PCB and CCL products is expected to grow, benefiting from the performance improvements of glass fiber cloth materials [45] - Key beneficiaries in the glass fiber cloth sector include Honghe Technology and China National Materials Technology, while beneficiaries in the quartz cloth sector include Feilihua [45][46]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to exceed market benchmarks in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The rapid development of AI computing infrastructure is driving significant upgrades in AI servers and data centers, with the global data center market projected to exceed $108.62 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [1]. - The demand for high-performance low-profile (HVLP) copper foil is increasing as AI servers require higher integration and power efficiency, leading to a push for high-end printed circuit boards (PCBs) [2]. - Domestic manufacturers are on the verge of breaking the monopoly of foreign suppliers in the HVLP copper foil market, with several companies achieving significant milestones in product validation and production [2]. Summary by Sections AI Computing Infrastructure - The transition from training to inference in generative AI is expanding the demand for AI servers and data centers, with a forecasted market size of $108.62 billion in 2024 [1]. - Government support for AI technology is increasing, with policies aimed at enhancing the supply of computing infrastructure [1]. HVLP Copper Foil - The integration and power consumption of AI servers are driving the need for high-end PCBs, with HVLP copper foil being a critical material for high-frequency and high-speed applications [2]. - Leading companies are accelerating the validation of HVLP products, with expectations for significant production increases by 2025 [2]. - The domestic market is poised for a breakthrough in HVLP copper foil production, potentially reducing reliance on imports and enhancing profitability for local manufacturers [2]. Related Companies - Key players in the HVLP copper foil sector include Defu Technology, Longyang Electronics, and Jiayuan Technology, among others [3].

Summary of Conference Call on Electronic Fabric Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the electronic fabric industry, specifically discussing advancements in PCB (Printed Circuit Board) technologies and materials used in various architectures such as GP300, GB200, and Rubin series [2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Material Upgrades and Usage**: - GP300 architecture has reverted to PCB solutions, increasing PCB usage and material grades. The Rubin series is testing PTFE1 and Ma9 grade materials, with NV actively evaluating Ma9 materials [2][4]. - GP300 employs HDI design with approximately 20+ layers, while GB200's actual layer count increased from 30 to nearly 40 layers, significantly enhancing CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) and BS (Binding System) material usage and value [2][6]. 2. **Price Changes**: - In GB200, the computer section is priced around $500-$600, while the switch section exceeds $1,000. In GP300, the switch section's value increased by 30%, from $1,000 to $1,500 [7][8]. - The Rubin series is expected to see a price coefficient increase of 2-2.5 times, with each board potentially exceeding $4,000 [7][8]. 3. **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - There is a significant disparity in yield rates among glass fabric manufacturers, with major suppliers including Asahi Glass (Japan), Taiwan Glass, and Taishan Fiberglass (China) [10][11]. - Ordinary fiberglass is priced around 10 RMB, while first-generation Low DK is priced at 30-40 RMB, and quartz (Q) prices are at least double that of the second generation [14]. 4. **Testing and Evaluation**: - The M9 and QQ material testing is being conducted in three tiers, with NV having completed initial evaluations and AWS, Google, and Meta expected to finish testing by Q3 2025 [3][16]. - The performance of quartz fabric varies significantly between manufacturers and even between batches from the same manufacturer, indicating instability in quality [17]. 5. **Market Demand and Supply Challenges**: - The demand for electronic fabrics is expected to increase, with potential supply bottlenecks anticipated in the mid-range output due to tight supply of first-generation Low DK glass fabric [29][30]. - The expansion cycle for electronic fabric production typically takes 1 to 1.5 years, with quartz fabric potentially requiring an additional 20-30% more time [28]. 6. **Future Trends**: - The initial pricing of new electronic fabrics is typically around 2.5 times that of the previous generation, decreasing to below 2 times during mass production, with a target stabilization at 1.5 times [31]. - The market for second-generation fabrics is expected to remain tight, with prices likely to hold steady due to high demand and limited supply [35]. Additional Important Insights - The current focus on testing indicators emphasizes DK and DF values, with stability in performance being a primary concern [27]. - The entry of new suppliers into the electronic fabric market is cautious, with established relationships and technical capabilities being prioritized [20]. - The market share for first-generation electronic paper suppliers shows that the top three suppliers account for approximately 60% of the total procurement volume [32][33]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the electronic fabric industry and its implications for future investments and market dynamics.