高阶 AI 领域的铜箔价格变化如何？ 铜箔价格怎么看 摘要 上半年国内高阶 PCB 铜箔生产商毛利率提升主要受益于 HVO P 和 RTF 产品占比提高，但中低端 HTE 产品仍面临亏损，行业盈利能力分化。 高阶 AI 领域铜箔价格在二、三季度连续提价，RTF 和 HOP 二代加工费 显著高于中低端 HTE 铜箔，且预计提价趋势将持续。 中低端 PCB 产业链中的电子布、CCL 等产品也有提价预期，头部企业产 能转向高阶方向导致中低端产品供应减少，CCL 企业面临原材料涨价的 提价诉求。 高阶 HVLP 和 RTF 铜箔市场也在涨价，主要原因是高频高速板核心客户 升级换代导致高级别 HOP4 需求增加但良率较低，且国产化率仍然很低。 未来几个季度，整个产业链特别是高阶 AI 领域及中低端传统 PCB 相关 产品都有进一步涨价空间，四季度或将迎来新一轮提价。 预计 2026 年铜箔市场需求量将翻番，HOP 铜箔大概率在中期出现短缺， 四代铜订单预计在 2025 年 11 月逐步落实，但 2 微米甚至 RTF 铜箔可 能出现短缺。 载通波技术路线明确，COUP 方案将在下半年大面积推广，800G 至 1.6T 光 ...

Summary of AI PCB & CCL Global Markets Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the AI PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sectors, particularly in relation to nVidia's Vera Rubin system and AWS's Trainium products [1][5][11]. Key Companies Mentioned - **nVidia (NVDA US)**: Central to the discussion regarding PCB and HDI (High-Density Interconnect) suppliers [1][2]. - **AWS (AMZN US)**: Significant player in the AI PCB/CCL market, particularly with its Trainium products [5][7]. - **Key Suppliers**: - **Unimicron (3037 TT)**: Noted as a major supplier for nVidia's HDI and PCB needs [2][4]. - **WUS (002463 CH)**: Identified as a leading PCB manufacturer [12][14]. - **EMC (2383 TT)**: Recognized for its CCL materials [12][14]. - **ZDT (4958 TT)**: Positioned to capture AI PCB/CCL growth opportunities [15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - nVidia's key HDI suppliers remain largely unchanged, but there is a push for out-of-China/Taiwan suppliers, with newcomers like Dynamic and ZDT likely entering the supply chain [2][3]. - The transition to new technologies such as CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-PCB) is underway, but may take 2-3 years to materialize [4]. - **Market Growth Drivers**: - AWS's Trainium 2 has been a key growth driver for the AI PCB/CCL industry, with significant order increases expected to raise sales and earnings for manufacturers [7][11]. - The anticipated upgrades in PCB specifications (e.g., from HDI+5 to HDI+6) and CCL materials (e.g., M8 to M8.5) are expected to drive demand in 2026 and beyond [11][12]. - **Potential Shortages**: - Concerns about shortages of high-layer count (HLC) PCBs and high-end materials due to increased demand from AWS and nVidia [7][8][10]. - The transition from Trainium 2 to Trainium 2.5 may create a temporary supply gap, impacting sales for PCB/CCL makers [9][10]. - **Investment Outlook**: - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for leading players like WUS and EMC, despite short-term volatility due to AWS's product transitions [12][14]. - ZDT is expected to benefit from its expansion plans and capabilities in mSAP and HDI [15]. Additional Important Points - **Technological Upgrades**: The report highlights the importance of upgrading copper foil specifications to HVLP4 to meet the demands of next-gen AI applications [8][21]. - **Market Competition**: The competitive landscape is shifting, with AWS's aggressive booking of PCB and material capacity prompting other CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) to compete for resources [7][10]. - **Future Projections**: The demand for AI chips is expected to ramp up significantly from 2Q26F, leading to strong growth for PCB and CCL makers [11][12]. Conclusion - The AI PCB and CCL sectors are poised for significant growth driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand from major players like nVidia and AWS. However, potential supply chain disruptions and market transitions may create short-term challenges for manufacturers.

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - Copper prices have rebounded, surpassing $9,000 due to rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, which could trigger a second price increase wave for CCL manufacturers as copper accounts for over 30% of their costs [1] - A $100 increase in copper prices could compress CCL gross margins by approximately 1.5-2 percentage points, incentivizing major manufacturers to issue price increase notices [1] - Tin production has been halted due to an accident at Hunan Xinlong Mining, which accounts for 10% of China's and 6% of global capacity; if the shutdown lasts over a month, it will exacerbate the global supply gap [1] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence - The release of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan aims for over 70% penetration of smart terminals/agents by 2027, exceeding 90% by 2030, and achieving a fully intelligent society by 2035 [2] - The key highlight of this policy compared to the 2015 "Internet+" initiative is the inclusion of penetration rates as quantifiable KPIs, indicating that fiscal policies, state-owned enterprise procurement, subsidies, and demonstration projects will focus on achieving these targets [2] Group 3: Livestock Industry - Since May, the policy focus has shifted from "stabilizing production and supply" to "reducing excess" in the pig industry, with a slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory ending an 18-month growth streak [3] - A 1% decrease in breeding sows could lead to a 5% long-term increase in pig prices, with projections suggesting that the price center could rise to 16-17 yuan/kg by 2026 [3] - Several insurance funds and FOFs have shifted their investments in the breeding sector from cyclical plays to high-dividend combinations, anticipating an increase in dividend rates from 40% to 60-70% under supportive policies and improved cash flow [3] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The phosphate fertilizer export policy has transitioned to a "dual-track system," effective from 2025, regulating exports through a combination of supply assurance and quota-based exports [4] - This new pricing mechanism aims to manage domestic price differences and capitalize on high overseas prices, with current FOB prices for diammonium phosphate at $803/ton and domestic ex-factory prices at 4,000 yuan/ton, yielding over 2,000 yuan profit per ton exported [4] Group 5: Financial Sector - China Ping An reported a 39.8% year-on-year increase in NBV, with the bancassurance channel growing by 16%, and CCL high-dividend stocks generating an additional 16.1 billion yuan [5] - The financial policy environment is stabilizing, with interest margins at a low point and non-performing loan ratios declining, suggesting that banks like Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Qingdao Bank may see relative returns in Q3 due to their valuation bottoms and high dividends [5]

Core Viewpoint - CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) is experiencing a price surge, with major manufacturers like 建滔积层板 issuing price increase notices, followed by second-tier companies such as 宏瑞兴 and 威利邦 [1] Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - 建滔积层板 announced a price increase of 10 yuan per sheet for products like CEM-1/22F/V0/HB/FR-4 starting August 15 [1] - 威利邦 and 宏瑞兴 also followed suit, with 威利邦 raising prices by 5 yuan per sheet due to rising copper prices, and 宏瑞兴 increasing prices by 10 yuan for various copper-clad laminates [1] Group 2: CCL and PCB Cost Structure - CCL is a core material for PCBs, accounting for 30% of the total PCB cost, with overall raw material costs making up 60% of PCB expenses [2] - The cost structure of CCL includes significant contributions from copper foil (42.1%), resin (26.1%), and fiberglass (19.1%) [3] Group 3: Demand Drivers and Supply Constraints - The rapid development of AI technology is driving strong demand for AI servers, which in turn boosts PCB demand [4] - The PCB industry is experiencing simultaneous increases in volume and price, leading to supply shortages in high-end materials such as LowDk electronic cloth and HVLP copper foil [5] Group 4: Key Material Suppliers - Recommended companies for AIPCB upstream materials include: - Electronic Cloth: 宏和科技 and 中材科技 [8] - Copper Foil: 铜冠铜箔, 德福科技, 隆扬电子, 嘉元科技, and 方邦股份 [8] - Electronic Resins: 东材科技, 圣泉集团, 宏昌电子, and 同宇新材 [8] - Functional Fillers: 联瑞新材 [8] - PCB-specific Electronic Chemicals: 天承科技 [9] - Copper Balls/Oxidized Copper Powder: 江南新材 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a systematic expansion in global computing power demand, particularly for GPUs and ASICs, which is expected to significantly enhance the value of PCB products due to advancements in materials and high-layer designs [1] Industry Summary - The AI-related PCB market is projected to reach a total scale of $5.6 billion in 2025 and $10 billion in 2026, driven by strong demand for computing infrastructure [1] - The PCB and CCL markets are experiencing sustained high demand due to AI, prompting core suppliers in the industry to accelerate capacity expansion [1] - A total investment of approximately 32 billion yuan has been announced by seven listed companies in A-shares for PCB capacity expansion, with a focus on upgrading products to higher-end specifications [1] Supply Chain Insights - The ramp-up period for high-end product yields is lengthy, and the local supply chain in Southeast Asia is not yet fully mature, which may lead to a lag in capacity release compared to demand growth [1] - A supply-demand gap is expected to persist in the medium term due to these factors [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with sectors such as servers, optical modules, medical devices, and GPUs leading the gains, while rare earth concepts faced significant losses [1] - The latest report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlights that the upgrade of AI computing hardware architecture is driving rapid growth in demand for high-end HDI and high-layer boards, with global computing power demand undergoing systematic expansion [1][2] - CICC estimates that the AI-related PCB market size is expected to reach $5.6 billion in 2025 and $10 billion in 2026 [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, PCB production capacity is accelerating, but the efficiency of capacity release is lagging behind the growth rate of AI demand, leading to a sustained supply-demand gap in the medium term [2] - North American cloud vendors are continuing to expand capital expenditures, indicating strong demand for AI computing power, which is expected to benefit the domestic computing power supply chain significantly [2] - The cloud computing 50 ETF (516630) tracks an index with a high AI computing content, covering popular computing concepts such as optical modules, computing leasing, data centers, AI servers, and liquid cooling [2]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI computing power is driving a significant increase in both volume and price in the PCB market, with expectations for the AI PCB market to reach $5.6 billion in 2025 and $10 billion in 2026 [2][8]. Demand Side - AI-driven computing infrastructure and smart device innovations are expected to boost the global PCB market value to $73.57 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [5][7]. - The demand for AI servers and GPUs/ASICs is projected to provide new momentum for long-term growth in the PCB market, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% from 2025 to 2029, reaching $94.7 billion by 2029 [5][8]. - The penetration rate of AI servers is expected to reach 15% by 2026, with shipments projected to exceed 2.1 million units [7]. Supply Side - PCB manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion, with a total investment of approximately 32 billion yuan announced by seven listed companies for PCB capacity expansion [2][35]. - Despite the acceleration in capacity expansion, the efficiency of capacity release is expected to lag behind the growth rate of AI demand, leading to a sustained supply-demand gap in the medium term [2][35]. Technological Innovations - Continuous iterations in technology are anticipated, with a focus on reducing dielectric constant (dk) and dielectric loss (df) to overcome transmission bottlenecks [4][52]. - The integration of advanced materials and new processes, such as CoWoP and substrate-like PCBs, is expected to drive further growth in the PCB market [4][52]. Market Dynamics - The global PCB market is heavily concentrated in Asia, with China leading in market share. The Asian PCB market is projected to reach $67.9 billion in 2024, accounting for 93.1% of the global market [35][38]. - The demand for high-layer and HDI PCBs is increasing due to the requirements of AI servers, which typically have more than 20 layers and require ultra-low loss materials [35][42]. CCL Market - The CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) market is also experiencing high demand, with the global market expected to reach $15.08 billion in 2024. Major suppliers include companies like Kingboard and Shengyi Technology [37][40]. - The leading CCL manufacturers are expanding their production capacity to meet the rising demand driven by AI infrastructure [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the demand for overseas computing power is high, driving both the volume and price of PCBs to rise, with the market scale expected to reach $5.6 billion and $10 billion in the AI PCB market by 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global demand for computing power is experiencing systematic expansion, with significant growth in GPU and ASIC volumes, alongside the application of advanced materials and designs, which is expected to enhance the value of single boards and drive the PCB industry's volume and price increase [1] - The PCB and CCL market continues to thrive due to strong demand from AI for computing infrastructure, with core suppliers accelerating capacity expansion, totaling approximately 32 billion yuan in investments for PCB capacity expansion among seven listed companies [2] Group 2: Capacity and Supply Chain - Despite the acceleration in PCB capacity expansion, the efficiency of capacity release is lagging behind the growth rate of AI demand, leading to a sustained supply-demand gap in the medium term [2] - The local supply chain in Southeast Asia is still maturing, which may further impact the efficiency of capacity release [2] Group 3: Technological Innovations - As AI computing hardware evolves towards high density and high bandwidth, reducing dielectric constant (dk) and dielectric loss (df) will be key to overcoming transmission bottlenecks, with potential future innovations in PCB technology including structural integration, functional upgrades, and material breakthroughs [3] Group 4: Related Companies - Companies to watch that are likely to benefit from the increased demand for PCBs and CCLs driven by AI include: Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), Shenzhen South Circuit (002916.SZ), Xingsen Technology (002436.SZ), Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ), Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ), Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ), Huitian Technology (002463.SZ), Shengyi Electronics (688183.SH), Jingwang Electronics (603228.SH), Founder Technology (600601.SH), and Guanghe Technology (001389.SZ) [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China PCB (Printed Circuit Board) sector**, highlighting a **47% rally** in the sector over the past three months driven by increasing demand for **artificial intelligence (AI)** applications [1] - The demand for **High Layer Count (HLC) PCB** and **High Density Interconnect (HDI)** is particularly strong due to growth in **cloud service providers' (CSP)** AI capital expenditure budgets and ASIC server projects [1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Dynamics**: - Strong demand from sectors such as **automotive**, **home appliances**, and **industrial applications** supports low-to-mid range order momentum, while demand for **smartphones** and **PCs** remains lukewarm, limiting growth for **Flexible Printed Circuit (FPC)** and **Substrate-Like PCB (SLP)** [1] - The **PCB production value** is expected to grow **6% in 2025E**, following a decline of **15%** in 2023 and a recovery of **7%** in 2024 [9] - The sector is anticipated to enter a mild **AI-driven upcycle**, with a **5% CAGR** from 2024 to 2029, compared to **2%** from 2018 to 2023 [9] - **Substrate Market**: - **BT (Bismaleimide-Triazine)** substrate makers in China are experiencing a dip in utilization rates, but a mild recovery is expected due to tariff-induced demand [2] - **ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film)** substrate demand is recovering globally, which is accelerating domestic semiconductor qualifications from local suppliers [2] - **Copper Clad Laminate (CCL)**: - Leading CCL makers in China are operating at full capacity, with a **10-15% price increase** expected in H225E due to rising raw material costs [3] - Demand for high-end CCL is driven by AI server projects and general-purpose server replacements [3] Stock Preferences and Recommendations - **Stock Ratings**: - Total EPS for the coverage is raised by **12%/14%/19%** for 2025-27E due to higher utilization and pricing from robust AI demand [4] - Price targets for companies in the sector have been increased by **47%–118%** based on higher EPS and upcycle PE multiples [4] - Preferred stocks include **Shennan** and **Shengyi Tech** due to their visibility in AI orders, while **FastPrint** has been downgraded to Neutral with a significant EPS cut due to delayed breakeven in ABF [4] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: - The **server/data storage** segment is projected to grow at a **12% CAGR** from 2024 to 2029, becoming the largest and fastest-growing downstream application by output value [11] - The **automotive sector** is expected to see a **4% CAGR**, driven by electrification and smartification trends [11] - The **consumer electronics** segment is mixed, with near-term strength from subsidies but overall sluggish demand [9] - **Geopolitical Factors**: - Current US tariffs have limited direct exposure for PCB and CCL companies, which have a globally diversified manufacturing footprint [9] - The tariffs may expedite capacity expansion for Chinese producers in Southeast Asia due to the sector's upstream and highly pollutive nature [9] - **AI and Technology Adoption**: - The demand for AI servers is expected to significantly increase, with Nvidia projecting a **100x increase** in compute requirements for inference demand [17] - The introduction of new Nvidia GPUs is anticipated to drive down costs for AI training and inference, further boosting demand for high-end PCBs [17] Conclusion - The China PCB sector is poised for growth driven by AI demand, with specific segments like HLC PCB and HDI expected to outperform. Stock preferences reflect a bullish outlook on companies with strong AI order visibility, while geopolitical factors and market dynamics will continue to shape the landscape.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditures among major North American cloud providers, with Q2 capital expenditures reported as follows: Google at $22.4 billion (+70% YoY), Microsoft at $24.2 billion (+27% YoY), Meta at $17 billion (+101% YoY), and Amazon at $32.2 billion (+83% YoY) [3]. - The upward revisions in capital expenditure forecasts for 2025 by these companies reflect strong demand for cloud products and services, with Google increasing its forecast from $75 billion to $85 billion, Microsoft expecting over $30 billion in the next quarter, Meta adjusting its range from $64-72 billion to $66-72 billion, and Amazon indicating that Q2 expenditures represent the level for the second half of the year [3]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing competition and iteration in AI models, suggesting that capital expenditures related to computing power will remain high, further reinforced by the strong Q2 earnings reports and future guidance [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes a substantial increase in inference computing power consumption, which has seen a multiplicative growth this year, driven by the demand for training-related computing power. As of May 2025, the daily token usage for the Doubao large model exceeded 16.4 trillion, a 137-fold increase from the previous year [4]. - Google reported that the monthly token processing volume reached 980 trillion, doubling from April's figure, indicating significant growth in user engagement and demand for AI applications [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the AI industry trend has been reinforced this year, driven by a substantial increase in inference demand, leading to sustained growth in AI capital expenditures. It highlights the importance of PCB in the AI hardware supply chain, with a recommendation to focus on companies such as Huadian Co., Shenghong Technology, Shennan Circuit, and others due to expected benefits from supply-demand dynamics [5]. - Additionally, it recommends monitoring server manufacturing firms like Industrial Fulian and liquid cooling supply chain companies such as Invec and Sihua New Materials [5].