Accessible version Technology Hardware - Asia-Pacific ABF substrate S/D & PCB: AI still demand driver; cloth/CCL supply & China comps Price Objective Change Lift POs for Taiwan names; highlight Buy-rated Ibiden Datacenter investment will continue to drive demand growth (see report) in AI/compute, and we note that SAP demand size will grow 25%+ during CY25-27, mainly driven by AI server, according to the data from Ibiden. Yet, within the package substrate universe, we reiterate Underperform ratings on Taiwan ...

Summary of 3Q25 Results Wrap and Inventory Tracker for China Hardware and Semiconductors Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Hardware and Semiconductors - **Quarter**: 3Q25 Key Points 1. Performance of Tech Hardware and Semiconductors - 21% of companies reported better-than-expected results in 2Q25, down from 35% in the previous quarter, primarily from non-operational sources, Apple casing suppliers, and OSAT [1][2] - Among 29 tech hardware and semiconductor stocks, 6 beat expectations, 4 were in-line, and 19 missed in 3Q25 [2] 2. Inventory Levels - The China tech inventory tracker indicates healthy inventory levels for consumer electronics hardware in 3Q25, while AI hardware remains high due to strategic stocking [1][3] - DIO (Days Inventory Outstanding) for passive components and distributors was low, while DIO for TV, optical communications, and networking reached a 5-year high [3] 3. Apple and Android Supply Chains - The Apple supply chain is expected to experience profit-taking following an upward revision in iPhone build plans, with a projected 95 million iPhone 17 builds in 2H25 [7] - Android supply chains are under pressure due to anticipated profit squeezes from rising memory prices [2][8] 4. AI Hardware Growth - AI supply chains are expected to show high growth visibility in 2026, with upstream material lock-in, capacity expansion, and margin delivery as key themes [1][2][9] - The AI sector may face a slowdown from November to February due to a lack of catalysts, but long-term growth remains promising [9] 5. Localization Trends - Strong localization demand is noted among Chinese mature semiconductors, driven by uncertainties in supply from US vendors [2][11] - The "China-for-China" trend is gaining traction, with international semiconductor vendors increasingly partnering with local firms [11] 6. Company-Specific Insights - **Lens Tech**: Expected to benefit from iPhone cover glass upgrades and AI edge devices, with a target price of Rmb38 [10] - **Victory Giant (VGT)**: Anticipated to see robust growth due to AI-related PCB demand, with a target price of Rmb407 [10] - **Sunny Optical**: Likely to benefit from multiple growth engines in 2026, including automotive and AI smart glasses, with a target price of HK$103 [10] 7. Semiconductor Market Dynamics - Chinese semiconductor makers are experiencing rising inventory levels due to softer consumer demand and seasonal stocking [11] - The automotive sector showed signs of stabilization in 4Q25, ahead of new EV purchase tax incentives starting January 2026 [11] 8. Revenue and Growth Projections - Global smartphone shipments grew by 2.6% YoY in 3Q25, while TV shipments declined by 4.9% YoY [6][8] - Revenue growth for smartphone components suppliers was reported at 9% YoY, with net profits increasing by 35% YoY [6] 9. Challenges and Risks - Concerns over memory price hikes are expected to pressure profit margins for smartphone manufacturers [8] - The semiconductor industry faces oversupply issues, particularly in power discrete components, which may hinder recovery [2][11] 10. Analyst Recommendations - Analysts have downgraded certain stocks, such as Sanan, to Sell due to lack of recovery signs, while maintaining Buy ratings on companies like ASMPT and Chroma due to their strong market positions and growth potential [2][11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends from the 3Q25 results wrap and inventory tracker for the China hardware and semiconductor industry, highlighting performance metrics, inventory levels, supply chain dynamics, and company-specific forecasts.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [3][23]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 20.614 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.80%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.443 billion yuan, up 78.04% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the upward resonance of CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) and PCB (Printed Circuit Board) businesses, indicating that profitability is expected to continue rising [1][7]. - The company’s PCB business is experiencing accelerated growth, particularly in AI-related products, which are expected to see significant volume increases in the coming quarters [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.934 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 1.017 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 131.18% [1]. - The report projects total revenue for 2025 to reach 29.423 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44.3%. The net profit is expected to be 3.552 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 104.3% [3][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.72 yuan in 2024 to 1.46 yuan in 2025, and further to 2.48 yuan in 2026 [3][9]. Business Outlook - The report emphasizes that the company’s CCL business is expected to stabilize and grow due to the increasing demand for high-speed CCL products, particularly in AI server applications [7]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI industry boom, with both high-speed CCL and high-end PCB products expected to drive substantial growth [7]. - The target price for the company is set at 86.8 yuan, based on a valuation of 35 times earnings for 2026, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of 63.28 yuan [3][7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The telecommunications industry experienced a revenue growth of approximately 11.4% and a net profit growth of about 14.2% in the first three quarters of the year, with particularly strong performance in the third quarter [1][4] - The demand for computing power in both domestic and international markets remains robust, significantly boosting the business of domestic ITC companies [1][5] - The telecommunications sector is projected to rank second in industry growth by 2025, with a fund holding ratio of approximately 7.76%, marking a new high [1][6] Key Companies and Performance - Ruijie Networks leads the market share in the internet data center switch market, while ZTE and Unisplendour have seen rapid growth in their server businesses [1][7] - The delivery volume of domestic chips has significantly increased, driving the transformation and upgrade of related companies [1][8] - Companies like Runze, Aofei Guanghuan, and GDS Holdings are well-positioned with ample construction projects and fixed asset reserves in the IDC sector [1][9] Capital Expenditure Trends - The four major North American cloud service providers (CSPs) reported a capital expenditure of $112.4 billion in the third quarter, indicating a sustained increase in investment in cloud computing infrastructure [1][10] - Microsoft saw the fastest capital expenditure growth in Q3, increasing from $24 billion to $35 billion, a 77% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][11] - Cumulatively, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have substantial order volumes, indicating a continued rise in demand for optical modules [1][12] Future Outlook - The telecommunications industry is expected to maintain significant growth potential, driven by economic catalysts and increasing investment interest [1][3] - The IDC sector is focused on rapid construction and delivery, with upcoming tender actions from internet companies likely to create more opportunities [1][9] - The overall trend for the North American market in 2026 and 2027 appears optimistic, with a recommendation to focus on optical communication and related sectors [1][16] Additional Insights - The optical module and device industry showed a slight slowdown in growth but remains at a high level, with leading companies performing steadily despite material shortages [1][15] - The overall market sentiment is shifting positively, with a recommendation to closely monitor developments in the optical communication and domestic equipment manufacturing sectors [1][16]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of the year, with revenue of 20.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.44 billion, up 78% year-on-year, driven by rising AI demand and continuous product structure optimization [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue reached 7.93 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.02 billion, up 131% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter - The gross margin for Q3 was 28.1%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.6%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Profit Structure Analysis - The company holds a 62.9% stake in its subsidiary, which contributed 370 million in PCB business profit and approximately 650 million in CCL business profit for Q3, with CCL profit showing a year-on-year increase of 70% [3] - Concerns regarding the sequential growth of CCL profit are attributed to rising raw material costs and significant R&D investments related to new product testing [3] AI-Related High-Speed Materials Growth - The company is experiencing month-on-month growth in AI-related high-speed materials, with new customers expected to continue certification and integration - The company is actively expanding its customer base to include major overseas clients such as AWS, Meta, and Google, leveraging its technological capabilities and production capacity [4] Industry Outlook and Growth Potential - The CCL industry is expected to maintain a positive outlook, with the company’s high-end products in AI computing and other sectors driving new growth opportunities - The company anticipates further revenue and profit growth due to rising CCL prices and increased production capacity for high-speed materials [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth in the PCB market driven by the rapid development of the AI industry, with a projected global PCB market value increase of 7.6% to reach $79.128 billion by 2025 [1] - Shengyi Electronics forecasts revenue between 6.614 billion to 7.034 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 108% to 121% [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for Shengyi Electronics is projected to be between 1.074 billion to 1.154 billion yuan, indicating a substantial year-on-year increase of 476% to 519% [1] Group 2 - Kaisheng Securities notes that the upward demand for PCBs and high raw material prices may support smooth price adjustments in the second half of 2025, potentially improving CCL profit margins and driving performance in the latter half of the year [2] - The company has successfully developed high-end products such as HVLP3 copper foil and ultra-thin VLP copper foil for IC packaging, which have been certified for use by several leading global tier 1 and communication terminal customers [2] - The first furnace for low dk glass fiber has been put into production in the first half of 2025, with three additional furnaces expected to be operational in the second half of 2025, enhancing the capability to produce second-generation glass fiber [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth expectations for Shengyi Electronics, projecting a revenue increase of 108% to 121% and a net profit increase of 476% to 519% for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - Shengyi Electronics anticipates that the rapid development of the AI industry will support growth in the PCB market, with a projected global PCB market value increase of 7.6% to reach $79.128 billion by 2025 [1] - The stock price of Jiantao Laminated Board rose over 5% during trading, reflecting positive market sentiment following Shengyi Electronics' performance forecast [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities indicates that rising PCB demand and high raw material prices may facilitate smooth price adjustments in the second half of 2025, potentially improving CCL profit margins [2] - The company has successfully developed high-end products such as HVLP3 copper foil and ultra-thin VLP copper foil for IC packaging, which have been certified by several leading global tier 1 and communication terminal customers [2] - The first furnace for low dk glass fiber has been put into production in the first half of 2025, with plans for three additional furnaces in the second half of 2025 and six more high-end furnaces expected to be operational in 2026 [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Storage Chip Market and PCB Industry Industry Overview - The storage chip market has experienced a comprehensive price increase since September 2025, driven by supply-side contraction and explosive AI demand. Major players like Samsung have raised DRAM and NAND Flash prices, while Micron has paused its pricing, with expectations of continued price increases into 2026-2027 [1][3][5]. Key Points on Storage Chips - **NAND Flash Market**: Major manufacturers are reducing capacity expansion, leading to a projected 30% price increase next year. Enterprise SSD demand is surging, with price increases expected to exceed 10 percentage points, continuing into 2026 [1][5][6]. - **DRAM Market**: AI server demand has significantly increased, with OpenAI expected to consume 900,000 DRAM wafers. The overall price increase for DRAM, especially HBM, is anticipated to persist until 2026 due to rising memory capacities in mobile devices [1][8]. - **NOR Flash Market**: Supply is contracting due to structural growth in AI and automotive electronics, with expectations of increased demand for NOR Flash capacity by 2026, despite weak demand in traditional consumer electronics [1][9]. - **Price Trends**: The overall price of storage chips is expected to continue rising throughout 2026, with NAND prices projected to increase by at least 30% due to rising KV Cache storage needs and slow expansion rates [1][10]. Key Points on PCB Industry - **Market Dynamics**: The PCB sector is following the development of overseas computing power chains, with TSMC raising its capital expenditure forecast. NVIDIA's GPU AISC shipments are expected to increase significantly, and domestic computing power chips in China are anticipated to see substantial growth by 2026 [1][13]. - **CCL Market**: Recent price increases in the CCL market are primarily driven by strong demand for high-end PCB products and rising raw material costs. This year has seen two significant price adjustments, which is unusual in the industry [1][14][15]. - **Future Demand Drivers**: The PCB market demand will be driven by factors such as the Robin plan, changes in CVG Tree materials, and CPS structures, with the value of PCBs per GPU expected to rise significantly [1][17]. - **Challenges and Opportunities**: The PCB industry faces challenges such as material application uncertainties and potential competition from new suppliers. However, domestic companies are expected to gain more opportunities through sample progress [1][18]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with significant NAND exposure and large DRAM enterprises, as well as companies in the long-term storage industry that are expanding 3D NAND and DRAM capacities [1][12]. - The overall outlook for the PCB and CCL sectors is optimistic, with potential for valuation increases due to high demand driven by AI and technological advancements [1][19][20].

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Foil Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper foil industry, particularly high-end PCB (Printed Circuit Board) copper foil production in China, highlighting the impact of product mix on profitability and pricing trends [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Profitability and Pricing Trends - High-end PCB copper foil manufacturers have seen an increase in gross margins, primarily due to the rising proportion of HVO P and RTF products, which increased from 20% last year to over 30% in the first half of this year [2][3]. - The gross margin for high-end PCB copper foil producers, such as Tongguan, was reported at 5.56%, up by 2.77 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Mid-to-low-end HTE (High Temperature Elongation) products continue to face losses, achieving only marginal profitability [3]. Price Increases in High-End AI Sector - Continuous price increases for high-end AI copper foil were noted in Q2 and Q3, with RTF processing fees around 28,000 CNY per ton and HOP (High-Performance Copper Foil) fees potentially reaching 80,000 CNY per ton [4]. - The price trend for high-end AI copper foil is expected to persist due to ongoing demand [4]. Mid-to-Low-End PCB Product Price Expectations - There are expectations for price increases in mid-to-low-end PCB products, including electronic cloth and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate), with companies like Jiantao and Shengyi issuing price increase notices [5]. - The transition of leading companies towards high-end production is reducing the supply of mid-to-low-end products, leading to increased pricing pressure [5]. Market Dynamics for High-End HVLP and RTF Copper Foils - The high-end HVLP and RTF copper foil markets are also experiencing price increases, driven by the transition of core customers to higher-grade products, which have lower yields and slower expansion rates [6]. - The low domestic production rate for high-end copper foils further supports the likelihood of price increases [6]. Future Price Predictions - The entire industry chain, especially in high-end AI and traditional mid-to-low-end PCB products, is expected to have further price increase potential in the coming quarters, with a new wave of price hikes anticipated in Q4 [7][8]. Demand and Supply Outlook for 2026 - The copper foil market demand is projected to double by 2026, with a likely shortage of HOP copper foils in the mid-term [9]. - Orders for fourth-generation copper are expected to gradually materialize by November 2025, but there may be shortages in 2-micron and RTF copper foils despite sufficient supply of 4-micron thickness [9]. Development of Domestic Technologies - The domestic development of waveguide technology is clear, with the COUP plan set for large-scale promotion in the second half of 2025, and MCEP processes being widely applied in 800G to 1.6T optical modules [10]. - Domestic companies are pushing for localization due to slow delivery times from suppliers like Mitsui, with significant changes expected by the end of this year or early next year [10]. Price Increase Implementation and Market Sentiment - The implementation of price increases for HTE products will depend on industry association actions against internal competition, with a clear trend of focusing production capacity on the AI sector [11]. - The urgent demand in high-end AI fields is expected to improve profit margins in traditional sectors significantly [11].

Summary of AI PCB & CCL Global Markets Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the AI PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sectors, particularly in relation to nVidia's Vera Rubin system and AWS's Trainium products [1][5][11]. Key Companies Mentioned - **nVidia (NVDA US)**: Central to the discussion regarding PCB and HDI (High-Density Interconnect) suppliers [1][2]. - **AWS (AMZN US)**: Significant player in the AI PCB/CCL market, particularly with its Trainium products [5][7]. - **Key Suppliers**: - **Unimicron (3037 TT)**: Noted as a major supplier for nVidia's HDI and PCB needs [2][4]. - **WUS (002463 CH)**: Identified as a leading PCB manufacturer [12][14]. - **EMC (2383 TT)**: Recognized for its CCL materials [12][14]. - **ZDT (4958 TT)**: Positioned to capture AI PCB/CCL growth opportunities [15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - nVidia's key HDI suppliers remain largely unchanged, but there is a push for out-of-China/Taiwan suppliers, with newcomers like Dynamic and ZDT likely entering the supply chain [2][3]. - The transition to new technologies such as CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-PCB) is underway, but may take 2-3 years to materialize [4]. - **Market Growth Drivers**: - AWS's Trainium 2 has been a key growth driver for the AI PCB/CCL industry, with significant order increases expected to raise sales and earnings for manufacturers [7][11]. - The anticipated upgrades in PCB specifications (e.g., from HDI+5 to HDI+6) and CCL materials (e.g., M8 to M8.5) are expected to drive demand in 2026 and beyond [11][12]. - **Potential Shortages**: - Concerns about shortages of high-layer count (HLC) PCBs and high-end materials due to increased demand from AWS and nVidia [7][8][10]. - The transition from Trainium 2 to Trainium 2.5 may create a temporary supply gap, impacting sales for PCB/CCL makers [9][10]. - **Investment Outlook**: - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for leading players like WUS and EMC, despite short-term volatility due to AWS's product transitions [12][14]. - ZDT is expected to benefit from its expansion plans and capabilities in mSAP and HDI [15]. Additional Important Points - **Technological Upgrades**: The report highlights the importance of upgrading copper foil specifications to HVLP4 to meet the demands of next-gen AI applications [8][21]. - **Market Competition**: The competitive landscape is shifting, with AWS's aggressive booking of PCB and material capacity prompting other CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) to compete for resources [7][10]. - **Future Projections**: The demand for AI chips is expected to ramp up significantly from 2Q26F, leading to strong growth for PCB and CCL makers [11][12]. Conclusion - The AI PCB and CCL sectors are poised for significant growth driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand from major players like nVidia and AWS. However, potential supply chain disruptions and market transitions may create short-term challenges for manufacturers.