2026 年 3 月 27 日 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 电子行业双周报（2026/03/13-2026/03/26） 行 业 村田宣布调涨 MLCC 投资要点： | 图 | 1 | ：申万电子板块近 年 TTM（剔除负值）（截至 | 10 | 2026/3/26） | PE | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2 | ：全球智能手机出货量 | | | | | 6 | | 图 | 3 | ：中国智能手机出货量 | | | | | 6 | | 图 | 4 | ：液晶面板价格环比变动（单位：美元/片） | | | | | 6 | | 一、行情回顾及估值 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、产业新闻 | | 5 | | 三、公司公告 | | 5 | | 四、行业数据 | | 6 | | 五、周观点 | | 7 | | 六、风险提示 | | 8 | 本 ...

2026 年 3 月 27 日 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 电子行业双周报（2026/03/13-2026/03/26） 行 业 村田宣布调涨 MLCC 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 电子行业 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾及估值：申万电子板块近2周（03/13-03/26）累计下跌6.31%， 跑输沪深300指数1.83个百分点，在申万行业中排名第13名；板块3月累 计下跌11.43%，跑输沪深300指数6.48个百分点，在申万行业中排名第 21名；板块今年累计下跌0.08%，跑赢沪深300指数3.22个百分点，在申 万行业中排名第12名。估值方面，截至3月26日，SW电子板块PE TTM（剔 除负值）为56.57倍，处于近10年88.21%分位。 周 报 电子行业指数走势 相关报告 产业新闻：（1）国家数据局表示，2024年初， ...

电子 电子行业年度策略 领先大市-A(维持) 2026 年 3 月 24 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 首选股票 评级 关注产业链投资机会-【山证电子】专题 报告 2025.7.14 【山证电子】AI 增长持续投入，华为鸿 蒙折叠PC开启PC形态革命-山西证券电 子行业周跟踪 2025.5.22 傅盛盛 执业登记编码：S0760523110003 邮箱：fushengsheng@sxzq.com 李明阳 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 存储进入超级周期。AI 训练侧万亿级参数量需要大容量高带宽存储支 撑，推理侧多模态输入与 KV 缓存消耗大量存储空间，服务器配套 HBM 与 高速 eSSD 成为标配。供给端受 2022 年半导体下行周期影响，存储厂商资本 开支保守，三星、美光等巨头退出利基产能转向高毛利领域，HBM 受 3D 堆 叠工艺壁垒制约供给弹性不足，2026 年供需比例将进一步下滑至 7%，DRAM 受 HBM 挤占影响短缺持续演进，NAND 向更高堆叠层数迁移存在资本与工 艺爬坡压力制约。受投产谨慎、良率约束及业务结构调整三因素叠加影响， 存储 ...

March 19, 2026 07:38 PM GMT Shengyi Technology Co Ltd. | Asia Pacific Making Some Progress in AI But Valuation Looks Fair | Shengyi Technology Co Ltd. (600183.SS) | From | To | | --- | --- | --- | | Price Target | Rmb22.00 | Rmb70.00 | | Reaction to earnings | | | | Unchanged | Modest shortfall | Modest revision lower | | Impact to our thesis | Financial results versus consensus | Direction of next 12-month | | | | consensus EPS | | Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research | | | Shengyi should gain som ...

Core Insights - The demand for PCB is driven by scale, speed, and integration, with a focus on the progress of substrate integration, backplane development, and optical-copper fusion [3][6] - The data center PCB market is projected to grow from $12.5 billion in 2024 to $23 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.7% from 2024 to 2030 [13] - Key technological advancements include substrate integration with CoWoP, backplane applications in Kyber racks, and the integration of optical systems in EOCB [18][23][34] PCB Sector - The expansion of computing clusters is leading to increased demand for high-layer, high-density, and high-speed interconnect PCBs [6][12] - The integration of complex functions through substrate and backplane technologies is enhancing PCB capabilities [6][12] - The introduction of CoWoP technology by Nvidia aims to improve signal integrity and reduce power loss, although challenges remain in mSAP process and supply chain constraints [18][19] CCL Sector - The transition to M9-M10 specifications is driven by the need for higher speed and cost-driven price increases [5][37] - The dielectric performance of CCL must be upgraded to ensure signal integrity as speeds and frequencies increase [5][37] - The main materials for CCL are expected to see significant price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand from AI applications [58][63] Key Companies - Key players in the PCB sector include Huadian Co., Shennan Circuit, Shenghong Technology, and others, with a focus on high-layer and high-density PCB production [76] - Huadian Co. is a core supplier for switches and ASIC PCBs, while Shennan Circuit leads in data communication PCBs and packaging substrates [76] - Shenghong Technology is involved in Nvidia's interconnect definitions, focusing on capacity expansion and breakthroughs in ASIC and switch technologies [76] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the progress of high-speed CCL certification and the sustainability of price increases [3][5] - Companies like Huadian Co. and Shenghong Technology are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI and high-speed interconnect technologies [76] - The focus on high-end materials and technologies in the PCB and CCL sectors presents significant investment opportunities as demand continues to rise [58][63]

Summary of the China PCB Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China PCB (Printed Circuit Board) Sector - **Key Focus**: Developments in LPU (Large Processing Unit) and Kyber midplane designs, CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) pricing dynamics, and substrate market trends Key Points PCB Design Developments - Upcoming GTC will highlight updates on LPU and Kyber midplane designs - Two potential PCB solutions for LPU identified: 1. Adopting a design similar to HGX with LPU accelerator cards on a universal baseboard (UBB) 2. Connecting LPU and CPU via a midplane, akin to CPX design - Kyber midplane developments include third round of Blackwell-based 78L MLB sampling, with Rubin Ultra-based solutions potentially exceeding 100 layers - Final design decisions and supplier allocations expected by mid-year, with mass production anticipated in Q4 2026 to H1 2027 - M9+Q glass identified as the most feasible CCL solution for both LPU and Kyber midplane [1][10] CCL Pricing Dynamics - A cost inflation-driven CCL pricing cycle has commenced, with glass fabric being the tightest raw material - High-end low-dk/CTE fabric and commodity E-glass prices have increased by 18% in the first two months of 2026 - Processing fees for copper foil have risen over 15% year-to-date, while resin supply remains relaxed but volatile - Conventional FR4 suppliers have issued price increases of 10-20% to PCB customers, with further adjustments likely - AI-related high-speed CCL pricing remains stable as suppliers prioritize share allocation over cost transfer [2][9] Substrate Market Trends - A-share BT substrate makers have been conservative on pricing, lagging behind regional peers - Expectation for A-share players to catch up on price lifts in Q1 2026, with gross margin upside anticipated from Q2 2026 - Order visibility remains strong into mid-2026 due to sustained memory cycle - ABF demand is improving, but Chinese suppliers have not yet begun mass production for overseas customers [3][18] Company Preferences and Sentiment - Preferred companies include Shengyi Tech (SYT) and Shennan Circuits, which have substrate exposure or existing AI exposure at key customers - Improved sentiment noted for FastPrint, although it is positioned further downstream in the AI supply chain [4] Financial Performance and Forecasts - SYT's Q4 2025 net profit expected between Rmb807-1,007 million, up 120-175% YoY - KBL anticipates 2025 net profit exceeding HK$2.39 billion, up over 80% YoY - CCL entering an upcycle driven by raw material costs and supply tightness, with conventional CCL leading price increases [9][18] Capacity and Investment Trends - Concerns about oversupply in the AI PCB supply chain due to aggressive capacity additions, particularly among PCB suppliers - CAPEX discipline noted among high-end CCL and upstream materials vendors - Projected growth of 66% in China PCB output value and 70% in CCL output value by the end of 2028 from 2025 levels [23][24] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks of high-end PCB oversupply in the next two years are mitigated by: 1. Increased complexity in designs leading to lower production yields 2. Not all announced PCB projects translating to real supply due to qualification challenges [24][26] Conclusion - The China PCB sector is poised for growth driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for AI-related applications, despite challenges in pricing and capacity management. Key players are expected to benefit from strategic positioning and market dynamics in the coming years [1][2][3][4][9][18][23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price increase of CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) opens up pricing space for electronic circuit copper foil and lithium battery copper foil, which are expected to see price hikes due to rising demand and supply constraints [6] - The demand for copper foil is projected to grow significantly, with lithium battery copper foil shipments expected to rise from 940,000 tons in 2025 to between 1,150,000 and 1,200,000 tons in 2026, and electronic circuit copper foil demand expected to increase from 404,000 tons in 2025 to 444,000 tons in 2026 [6] - Domestic manufacturers are anticipated to follow overseas price increases, with expectations for price hikes across the entire range of electronic circuit copper foil products [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - CCL manufacturers are raising prices by 10% due to increased raw material and processing costs, which is expected to stimulate demand for electronic circuit copper foil [6] - The copper foil industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with insufficient willingness to expand production among manufacturers, leading to potential profit recovery [6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report cites that the high-end demand related to AI is primarily dominated by Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers, with significant import volumes of electronic copper foil [6] - The high investment cost and long payback period for copper foil production are contributing to the reluctance of manufacturers to expand capacity, exacerbating supply constraints [6] Price Trends - Price increases in high-end copper foil products are expected to be mirrored by domestic manufacturers, with specific products like HVLP likely to see significant price hikes due to high demand [6] - The transition of production lines from lithium battery copper foil to electronic circuit copper foil is anticipated to further tighten supply in the lithium battery segment, leading to potential price increases [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Defu Technology, which is well-positioned to benefit from copper foil price increases, and highlights other companies like Tongguan Copper Foil and Jiayuan Technology for their strategic positions in the market [6]

温晗静 中金公司科技硬件分析师: 各位投资人晚上好，那欢迎大家每周日的晚上 8:30 来参加我们的电子决定会议。我是中 金公司科技硬件组分析师温涵静，那我们本周的主题，还是聚焦在 AI，重点聚焦在 AI 的 一个大家比较关心的方向上，就是周期性比较强的一些环节，目前的行情演绎到了一个什 么样的阶段？那如果我们简单回顾近期的市场的变化的话，一方面就是由于伊朗的这种情 况带来的宏观经济的不，宏观经济的这种不明朗。所以带来了很多的这个扰动，大家也看 到了上周的整个科技板块应该回调还是比较大的。 另一方面的话，就是我们从一个微观的视角来看，不管是说近期的 Open Cloud 的这种爆 火，包括甚至周末的时候，由于说中东这边的状况导致了像 Google 的一些 AI 的功能其 实受到了短期的一些影响的情况下，我们看到 AI 的长期的需求的趋势还是比较强劲的。 所以在这样 的一个状况下，大家也是比较关心，就是说 AI 的行情到了一个什么样的位置 那我们也是在前几周的电子决策上，分别向大家去汇报了光通信。还有像是 CPU、GPU 等等的环节，那我们在这周的会议上重点向大家去更新一下，存储、PCB、MLCC 等这样 一些偏 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes low valuation companies in the energy sector with a PE ratio below 20X for the 2026 profit forecast [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of "selling shovel" companies in the coal chemical sector, particularly in the context of fluctuating oil prices, which significantly impact the economic viability of coal chemical projects [3][13] - It identifies several key players in the energy engineering sector, including Donghua Technology, China Energy Engineering, and China Chemical, which are involved in significant projects and are expected to see revenue growth [3][13] - The report also discusses the energy materials sector, noting that companies like Keda Manufacturing and Changbao Co. are experiencing improvements due to unexpected changes in demand [4][14] - AI new materials are highlighted as having a price increase expectation, with specific references to electronic fabrics and copper foil, indicating a strong cycle of inflation in these sectors [4][14] Summary by Sections Energy Engineering - Focus on coal chemical projects, particularly coal-to-olefins, coal-to-oil, and coal-to-natural gas, with economic viability tied to oil prices above $80 per barrel [3][13] - Key companies include: - Donghua Technology: Expected revenue of 10 billion with a 13% increase in 2025 [3][13] - China Energy Engineering: Largest green hydrogen and ammonia project globally [3][13] - Other notable mentions include China Chemical, Sanwei Chemical, and local mining companies in Xinjiang [3][13] Energy Materials - Companies like Keda Manufacturing are benefiting from the growing demand for energy storage materials [4][14] - The report notes the potential for price increases in AI materials, particularly in electronic fabrics and copper foil, driven by ongoing inflationary pressures [4][14] Market Performance - The cement sector shows a national average price of 338 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 52 RMB/ton and a slight month-on-month decline [15][18] - The glass market sees a slight increase in prices, with the average price for float glass at 1174.93 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.89% increase [15][36] - The report indicates a mixed performance across various building materials, with the construction index down by 6.21% [18][24]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes low valuation companies in the energy sector, particularly those with a projected PE ratio under 20X for 2026 [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of "selling shovel" companies in the coal chemical sector, which includes coal-to-olefins, coal-to-oil, and coal-to-natural gas, particularly in the context of fluctuating oil prices [3][13] - The report identifies several key companies in the energy engineering and materials sectors that are expected to benefit from these trends, including Donghua Technology, China Energy Engineering, and others [3][4][14] Summary by Sections Energy Engineering - Focus on coal chemical projects, with economic viability linked to oil prices above $80 per barrel, particularly in Xinjiang [3] - Key companies include: - Donghua Technology: Expected revenue of 10 billion with a 13% YoY increase and net profit of 533 million with a nearly 30% increase by 2025 [3] - China Energy Engineering: Involved in the world's largest green hydrogen and ammonia project [3] - Other notable companies include China Chemical, Sanwei Chemical, and local explosives firms [3] Energy Materials - Companies in this sector are experiencing improvements ahead of traditional industries due to unexpected changes [4] - Key players include: - Keda Manufacturing: Focused on negative electrode materials for energy storage [4] - Changbao Co. and Boying Welding: Engaged in HRSG, a core component for gas turbines [4] - China Jushi and China National Materials: Noted for growth in wind power fiber [4] AI New Materials - Price increase expectations are materializing, particularly for electronic fabrics and copper foil [4] - Companies to watch include China Jushi, Tongguan Copper Foil, and others involved in AI-related materials [4] Market Performance - Cement prices averaged 338 RMB/ton, down 52 RMB YoY, with a national average shipment rate of 15.1% [15] - Float glass prices increased to 1174.93 RMB/ton, with a slight rise in inventory days [15][36] - The report notes a general decline in construction material indices, with a significant drop in various sectors [18] Price Changes - Cement prices are expected to stabilize as demand gradually recovers, with a current inventory ratio of 62.88% [26] - Float glass market remains under pressure with high inventory levels and limited new orders [36][47]