Core Viewpoint - Moutai has successfully navigated recent market challenges, showing significant recovery in sales driven by the "Double Festival" effect, with September sales data indicating a substantial rebound in demand and a resilient distribution network [2][4][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In September, Moutai's sales volume increased approximately 100% month-on-month and over 20% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [2][4]. - Feedback from key markets such as Nanjing, Zhengzhou, and Chengdu shows a clear upward trend in Moutai's sales, with some regions reporting sold-out stocks [3][4]. - The performance of personalized products, including the 70th Anniversary commemorative wine and zodiac-themed products, has also seen significant sales growth [3][4]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Moutai's management has conducted extensive market research throughout the year, including a "spring sowing" initiative to gather insights from over 1,700 distributors across 18 provinces [6][7]. - The "autumn harvest" strategy aims to instill confidence in distributors and capitalize on the peak sales period during the "Double Festival" [7][8]. - Moutai's strategic focus includes three transformations: customer group, consumption scenario, and service, which are being implemented effectively in the market [8][9]. Group 3: Channel and Product Innovation - Moutai is enhancing its marketing strategy by focusing on product, channel, and terminal transformations, including the development of cultural experience stores [9]. - The company is also working on creating a professional service system within its marketing framework, which includes various specialized roles to improve customer engagement [8][9]. - The overall strategic planning and channel reforms have contributed to the strong sales rebound in September and are expected to support sustained growth in the fourth quarter [9].

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Core Viewpoint - The "manufacturer integration" strategy is being increasingly adopted by major liquor companies, with Moutai and Wuliangye leading the way in establishing joint venture companies to stabilize market prices and develop regional cultural products [1][4]. Group 1: Moutai's Joint Venture Plans - Moutai plans to establish joint venture companies in various provinces, led by provincial distributors' associations, with registered capital ranging from 50 million to 100 million yuan [1][2]. - The joint venture companies will focus on developing culturally themed products specific to each province, aiming to enhance channel profit margins and increase non-standard liquor revenue [2][4]. - The initiative has been temporarily paused due to internal disputes regarding the model, with the specific reasons for the delay remaining unclear [1][9]. Group 2: Wuliangye's Actions - Wuliangye has already initiated the establishment of specialized companies, such as Sichuan Wujun and Sichuan Wujun, with registered capital of 540 million and 570 million yuan respectively, involving over 30 major distributors [3][4]. - This move is seen as a strategic effort to reorganize commercial resources and enhance operational efficiency through capital ties with core distributors [1][4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, including declining consumer spending, high channel inventory pressures, and widespread price inversion phenomena [4][5]. - Approximately 60% of companies have reported reduced profit margins, and over 40% of distributors and retailers are experiencing cash flow pressures [4]. - The traditional manufacturer-distributor relationship is being redefined, with large distributors now sharing risks and responsibilities rather than merely acting as inventory holders [4][5]. Group 4: Price Stability Efforts - The joint venture model aims to stabilize the price of Moutai, which has been declining since last year, by collectively managing supply [5][8]. - Developing high-margin regional cultural Moutai products is intended to create new revenue streams while protecting existing profit margins [8]. - Achieving long-term price stability will require precise supply control and a dynamic balance with real market demand, posing significant operational challenges for the joint ventures [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai is planning to establish joint venture companies in various provinces to stabilize prices and develop regional cultural Moutai products, aiming to create a balance between price control and market expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Venture Company Structure - The joint venture companies will be led by provincial distributors' associations, with registered capital ranging from 50 million to 100 million yuan, depending on the province [1]. - Each joint venture will focus on developing culturally themed products specific to the province, which is expected to enhance channel profit margins and increase non-standard liquor revenue [1][2]. - If all distributors participate, Moutai could potentially raise over 5 billion yuan in capital from the joint ventures, significantly aiding its annual operational goals [3]. Group 2: Price Stabilization Strategy - The establishment of joint ventures is seen as a dual-track approach to maintain price stability while expanding the market. This involves creating a community of interests among distributors and using the joint ventures as a buffer for market price adjustments [2][8]. - The legal structure of the joint ventures allows Moutai to adjust market prices indirectly, thus avoiding legal risks associated with direct price fixing [2][9]. Group 3: Market Context and Challenges - The price of Moutai has experienced significant fluctuations, with the wholesale price of the 53-degree Flying Moutai dropping below 2000 yuan per bottle in June, marking a historic low [4]. - The success of the new cultural Moutai products in the market remains uncertain, especially given the current consumer demand challenges. The outturn price is expected to be above 2000 yuan, which may face difficulties in gaining market acceptance [5][7]. - Previous attempts to establish joint ventures faced challenges due to internal conflicts among shareholders, leading to the termination of such projects in 2019 [5][9]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The trend of creating joint ventures or distributor alliances is becoming more common among leading liquor companies, aiming to stabilize channel operations and enhance cooperation [8]. - Different companies are adopting varied strategies, with Moutai focusing on leveraging its brand power to create operational flexibility for distributors, while others like Wuliangye emphasize fair profit distribution [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of value investors in the face of market fluctuations, focusing on long-term potential rather than short-term noise [1] - Recent price declines in the liquor market are attributed to speculative behavior rather than genuine demand shifts, with expectations of recovery as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [2] - The stability of prices for older vintages of Moutai reflects their strong demand for consumption and collection, indicating a shift towards rational pricing in the market [4] Group 2 - The trend of consumers increasingly using Moutai in non-business settings highlights a shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on personal enjoyment and quality [6] - The overall liquor market is witnessing a concentration of demand towards premium brands, with Moutai benefiting from its established reputation and quality during industry adjustments [7] - The cultural products associated with Moutai are experiencing high demand, indicating a growing trend of consumers seeking personal fulfillment through collection and enjoyment [4][6]

Industry Dynamics - In March, the production of liquor by large-scale enterprises in China decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, totaling 378,000 kiloliters, with a cumulative production of 1,032,000 kiloliters in the first three months, down 7.3% year-on-year [4] - Beer production increased by 1.9% year-on-year in March, reaching 3,128,000 kiloliters, but the cumulative production for the first three months fell by 2.2% [4] - Wine production saw a significant decline of 25% year-on-year in March, with a total of 9,000 kiloliters produced, and a cumulative production of 24,000 kiloliters in the first three months, also down 25% [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a list of 40 key traditional food industries for cultivation, including liquor categories such as Baijiu, Huangjiu, and wine, aimed at boosting economic development and enhancing domestic demand [4] - Five liquor enterprises were recognized in the national-level skills master studio list, highlighting the industry's focus on skill development and training [7] Company Dynamics - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 14.667 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a net profit of 1.056 billion yuan, up 63.74% [8] - Shanghai Gui Jiu (Rocky Co.) reported a revenue of 285 million yuan, a significant decline of 82.54%, with a net loss of 217 million yuan, down 349.63% [9] - Tianyoude Jiu reported a revenue of 1.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.69%, but a net profit decline of 52.96% to 42.135 million yuan [10] - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [10] - Moutai achieved sales exceeding 10 million yuan during the China International Consumer Products Expo, showcasing strong consumer interest in its products [10] - Luzhou Laojiao received the first data intellectual property registration certificate in the liquor industry for real-time monitoring data of bottled liquor, indicating a focus on quality control [11] - Yanghe Baijiu's cellar group was certified by Guinness World Records as the largest scale of liquor cellars, emphasizing the company's production capacity [11]