步入被称作"比难更难"的2025年，国货美妆行业的"退场名单"持续拉长，巧迪尚惠、境生之源、椿山、帷幕……这些曾在细分赛道有过声量的品牌都"倒 下"了。 行业寒冬下，新品牌的生存土壤也愈发贫瘠，从孵化到落地的每一步，都更具挑战性。但越是艰难的时候，越能见证国货美妆的破局魄力。庆幸的是，我 们看到2025年以来，行业不仅没有陷入新品牌停滞期，反而迎来一轮布局热潮。 如，上美股份一口气推出3个新品牌，贝泰妮酝酿三年的祛痘品牌进入待推倒计时，珀莱雅则意欲通过海外并购剑指婴童、香水、男士护肤等空白赛道， 就连半亩花田、方里、橘朵等中腰部品牌的母公司，也纷纷推出第二品牌…… 种种动作意味着，这些在处于领先地位的国货美妆企业们，正集体按下子品牌加速键，一场多品牌矩阵的攻坚战已全面打响。 头部企业扎堆"练小号" 今年布局子品牌的国货美妆中，既包含登陆资本市场的上市公司，也不乏处于行业中腰部的企业代表。 上市公司"多条腿并行" 于上市公司而言，当主品牌竞争到了一定阶段，往往会面临增长瓶颈，加之，企业为了触达更多细分人群，也需要拓宽市场覆盖维度。 这时候，"多条腿并行"就成为上市公司摆脱主品牌依赖、构建多元竞争力的重要战略选择 ...

Summary of Shangmei Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is actively adjusting its channel structure, leading to rapid growth of the Han Shu brand on the Douyin platform, with a projected profit margin recovery to around 12% in the first half of 2025 and positive growth [2][5][6] - The company anticipates an annual growth rate exceeding 40% for the year [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Multi-Brand Strategy**: Shangmei is advancing a multi-brand strategy, launching high-end maternal and infant brand NewPage, expected to double its revenue to 800 million yuan this year, and the whitening product 聚光白, which has performed well since its launch [2][7][10] - **Growth Projections**: By 2026, Han Shu is expected to maintain over 20% growth, with a single brand market share projected to reach 12 to 15 billion yuan [2][8] - **Product Performance**: 聚光白 achieved profitability in its first month, with Douyin channel GMV surpassing 50 million yuan in August, and an annualized revenue forecast of 600 million yuan, with expectations to exceed 1 billion yuan in 2026 [2][9][10] - **Brand Positioning**: The Ji Fang brand, positioned in the hair care sector, has seen sales on Douyin exceed 20 million yuan post-adjustment, indicating strong performance in its niche [2][10] Additional Important Insights - **Management Changes**: Shangmei has shifted from a single management model to independent management by brand leaders, allowing for continuous expansion of its multi-brand matrix [3][11] - **Market Performance**: The Han Shu brand has shown strong alpha performance in the beauty industry, particularly on Douyin, maintaining the top sales position for 23 consecutive months since 2023, with a net profit margin exceeding 10% [4][5] - **Future Outlook**: The company is optimistic about the future of Han Shu and other new brands, planning to expand product categories and optimize product structure to further increase market share [8][11]

机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/黄蔓琪 公司动态 公司近况 我们近期组织上美股份业绩后NDR交流。公司主品牌韩束品类拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖；年中以 来多个小品牌模式跑通、快速起量，多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现；长期看，人才及组织架构为构建平台型 化妆品集团提供底层支撑。我们看好公司中长期成长前景。 评论 1、主品牌韩束品类、功效拓展顺利，持续拓宽人群覆盖。韩束凭借多年沉淀的自有供应链及灵活高效 的线上运营能力，于大众价格带以质价比取胜，品牌可及空间广阔，多品类拓展顺利，Q3 进一步起 量：1H25 韩束抖音红白蛮腰系列合计占比下降至60%+，次抛占比提至约15%，男士/彩妆/洗护/身体护 理合计占比提至近10%；8 月次抛抖音月GMV进一步爬坡至超2 亿元，占比25%，洗护/身体护理/男士 合计占比提至超10%。 2、多个小品牌模式跑通、起量趋势亮眼，2H25 起多品牌集团逻辑逐步兑现。①一页：7-8 月线上GMV 延续翻倍增长；②安敏优：上半年品牌调整显效，年中以来显著提速，8 月抖音GMV提升至约2000 万 元；③极方：5 月发力推广以来逐月起量，8 月抖音GMV爬坡至近2000 万元；④聚光白：合作抖音 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years, and raises the target price by 5% to HKD 111, indicating a 14% upside potential [1] Company Status - CICC recently organized a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Shumei Co., Ltd. The main brand, Han Shu, is successfully expanding its product categories and continuously broadening its customer base. Since mid-year, several small brand models have been successfully implemented and are rapidly gaining traction, validating the multi-brand group strategy. The company is expected to have strong long-term growth prospects due to its talent and organizational structure [2] Main Brand Expansion - Han Shu is leveraging its established supply chain and efficient online operations to succeed in the mass market with a strong price-performance ratio. The brand has a wide reach, and its product category expansion is progressing well. In Q3, the proportion of the Douyin Hongbai Mankui series decreased to over 60%, while the share of secondary products increased to about 15%. The combined share of men's, color cosmetics, hair care, and body care reached nearly 10%. In August, the monthly GMV for secondary products on Douyin exceeded RMB 200 million, accounting for 25% [3] Small Brand Performance - Several small brand models are showing impressive growth trends, with online GMV continuing to double in July and August. Specific brands include: - Anminyou: Significant acceleration since mid-year, with Douyin GMV reaching about RMB 20 million in August - Jifang: Monthly growth since May, with Douyin GMV nearing RMB 20 million in August - Juguangbai: Collaborated with top KOLs on Douyin, achieving over RMB 50 million in GMV and profitability in its first month - Nan Beauty: New products launched in early September - Bread Man: New products launched in early September [4] Organizational Support - The company emphasizes organizational drive and talent support, with a performance-oriented and flexible organizational structure. Brand divisions enjoy high decision-making autonomy, and the company continues to attract top talent and implement effective incentive mechanisms. This establishes a replicable brand incubation system, supporting the expansion of a multi-category and multi-brand matrix. The company is also actively pursuing overseas expansion, with supply chain development and team building in Southeast Asia progressing steadily. CICC is optimistic about Shumei's long-term growth as a multi-brand and multi-category platform company [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC maintains its earnings forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 31/25x for those years. The target price is raised by 5% to HKD 111, implying a 14% upside potential [1][2]. Group 2 - The company has successfully expanded its main brand, Han Shu, broadening its demographic reach. The brand's performance in Q3 shows a decrease in the proportion of its main product series to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to about 15% [3]. - Multiple small brand models have shown promising growth, with online GMV doubling in July and August. Brands like An Min You and Ji Fang have seen significant increases in GMV, with An Min You reaching approximately 20 million yuan in August [4]. - The company emphasizes a performance-driven organizational structure and talent support, which are crucial for its transition to a multi-brand, multi-category platform. The company is also actively expanding into Southeast Asia [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E of 30/23x for those years, and raises the target price by 8% to HKD 106, indicating a potential upside of 17% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue reached CNY 4.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, aligning with the upper limit of the previous earnings forecast [1] - The net profit for 1H25 was CNY 560 million, up 34.7% year-on-year, also exceeding the prior forecast range [1] - The attributable net profit was CNY 520 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, meeting the expectations of the report [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - The brand Han Shu achieved revenue of CNY 3.34 billion in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with successful expansion across multiple product lines [2] - The brand Yipai saw a significant revenue increase of 146% year-on-year, reaching CNY 400 million, with strong sales of its star product [2] - The brand Hongse Xiaoxiang generated CNY 160 million in revenue, indicating initial success in its brand transformation [2] Group 3: Channel and Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 75.5% in 1H25, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 56.9% [3] - The increase in the proportion of lower-cost external sales channels contributed to the optimization of the sales expense ratio [3] - The attributable net profit margin rose by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in 1H25, reflecting improved profitability [3] Group 4: Future Growth Strategy - The company continues to expand its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with positive initial results [4] - Plans for 2H25 include launching new brands targeting specific markets, such as a maternal and infant IP brand and a professional makeup brand [4] - The company aims to follow a "2+2+2" strategy over the next three years, focusing on skincare, hair care, and maternal-infant products to build a diverse brand portfolio [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, with a 17.3% increase in revenue and a 30.6% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating robust operational performance and market positioning [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 4.11 billion RMB and a net profit of 520 million RMB in the first half of 2025, with an EPS of 1.32 RMB [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 75.5%, while the expense ratio remained stable at 63.2% [2]. - Inventory increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 680 million RMB, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 5 days to 249 days [2]. - Operating net cash flow grew significantly by 77.5% to 390 million RMB [2]. Brand and Product Development - The main brand, Han Shu, maintained its leading position on the Douyin platform, ranking first among beauty brands and expanding its product line with new offerings [3]. - The company is actively pursuing a multi-brand strategy, launching new brands in various categories, including skincare, maternal and infant care, and cosmetics [3]. - New brands such as An Min You for sensitive skin and a high-end anti-aging brand TAZU are in development, alongside collaborations with well-known IPs for maternal and infant products [3]. Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its multi-brand strategy, which is anticipated to inject new growth momentum and enhance operational efficiency and profit margins [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted upward to 1.16 billion RMB, 1.47 billion RMB, and 1.83 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 at 2.71, 3.42, and 4.19 RMB respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [2][10] - The target price is set at 97.72 HKD, based on a 33x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [2][10] - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, with revenue growth driven by its main brand, Han Shu, and the rapid expansion of its infant brand, Yi Ye [9][10] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 4,191 in 2023 to 12,350 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.6%, 62.1%, 24.7%, 22.3%, and 19.2% respectively [4][12] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 414 million RMB in 2023 to 1,739 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth rates of 308.5% in 2023 and 67.8% in 2024 [4][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 461 million RMB in 2023 to 1,669 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 213.5% in 2023 and 69.4% in 2024 [4][12] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 72.1% in 2023 to 76.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to increase from 11.0% to 13.5% over the same period [4][12] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong absolute performance, with a 165.8% increase over the past 12 months [6] - The stock price as of August 6, 2025, was 87.75 HKD, with a 52-week high of 90.9 HKD and a low of 28.84 HKD [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit both increasing. The estimated revenue for H1 2025 is approximately 4.09 to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, while net profit is expected to be between 540 to 560 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [8]. - The main brand, Han Shu, solidified its foundation with significant growth driven by category and channel adjustments. In July, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin increased by 58%, benefiting from a shift towards self-operated sales channels [8]. - New product launches and high-end breakthroughs are opening new growth avenues. The New Page brand in the maternal and infant sector saw a GMV increase of 187% from January to July, while the hair care segment is also gaining traction [8]. - The company's strategy of multi-brand collaboration and channel optimization is yielding long-term advantages, focusing on core sectors and expanding product categories [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4,191 million RMB - 2024: 6,793 million RMB - 2025E: 8,513 million RMB - 2026E: 10,466 million RMB - 2027E: 12,664 million RMB - The corresponding net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 461 million RMB - 2024: 781 million RMB - 2025E: 1,061 million RMB - 2026E: 1,364 million RMB - 2027E: 1,654 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 36% for 2025, 29% for 2026, and 21% for 2027 [7][9].

Group 1 - The toy and trendy play industry in China is experiencing explosive growth during the 618 shopping festival, with six merchants surpassing 100 million yuan in sales and nearly 100 merchants exceeding 10 million yuan [1][2] - The top IP products, including Sanrio and Ultraman cards, are performing exceptionally well, indicating a strong demand for Japanese IP in the Chinese market [2][3] - The overall market for trendy toys is expanding, with over 2,400 stores achieving triple-digit growth compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - Major Japanese companies like Bandai, Sanrio, and Tsuburaya have reported significant revenue from their IPs, with Bandai's Dragon Ball generating approximately 9.44 billion yuan, a 35.6% increase year-on-year [4][5] - Sanrio's revenue in China has surged to 816 million yuan, with IP licensing contributing significantly to its growth [5][7] - Tsuburaya's Ultraman IP has generated 260 million yuan in licensing revenue in China, highlighting the strong performance of card sales [7][19] Group 3 - The competitive landscape of the trendy toy market is intensifying, with over 100 stores closing in the first half of 2025, indicating a significant shakeout in the industry [15][16] - The trend of localization is evident, as companies like Sanrio and Bandai are focusing on developing original IPs and collaborating with local partners to enhance their market presence [21][29] - The shift from content output to collaborative ecosystem building is becoming a key strategy for Japanese IP companies in China, aiming for sustainable growth in the competitive market [29][30]