内容概要：2024年我国丙烯腈产能为439.9万吨，与2023年持平；产量完成311.3万吨，同比增长6.56%；产能利用率自2020年后持续下滑，2024年回调至 70.8，随着国内丙烯腈供给端快速扩张，行业供应量持续增加，而其主要下游产品ABS、腈纶、丙烯酰胺等领域需求疲软，2024年我国丙烯腈表观消费量为 294.6万吨，增长率仅0.08%，对比同年产能和产量的增长率，我国丙烯腈面临供应过剩的局面。 上市企业：东方盛虹（000301）、中国石油（601857）、中国石化（600028） 相关企业：上海赛科石油化工有限责任公司、浙江石油化工有限公司、辽宁金发科技有限公司、利华益集团股份有限公司、山东科鲁尔化学有限公司、中海 油富岛（海南）化工有限公司、天辰齐翔新材料有限公司、山东海江化工有限公司、中国石油天然气股份有限公司大庆炼化分公司、中国石油化工股份有限 公司镇海炼化分公司、山东裕龙石化有限公司、中化泉州石化有限公司、中石化英力士（天津）石化有限公司 关键词：丙烯腈生产工艺、丙烯腈市场政策、丙烯腈产业链、丙烯腈供需现状、丙烯腈进出口贸易、丙烯腈竞争格局、丙烯腈发展趋势 一、概述 按纯度等级不同，丙烯腈 ...

Overview - In 2024, China's acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to remain at 4.399 million tons, with a production volume of 3.113 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.56% [1] - The capacity utilization rate has been declining since 2020 and is projected to recover to 70.8% in 2024, indicating an oversupply situation due to rapid expansion in domestic production [1][11] - The apparent consumption of acrylonitrile in China is forecasted to be 2.946 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of only 0.08%, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand [1][11] Market Policies - Recent policies in China aim to promote technological innovation and industrial upgrades in the acrylonitrile sector, steering the industry towards high-end and green development [6][7] Industry Chain - The acrylonitrile industry chain includes upstream suppliers of propylene, liquid ammonia, and catalysts; midstream production; and downstream applications in ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide [7][8] Consumption Structure - The consumption of acrylonitrile is primarily concentrated in three sectors: ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide, with ABS accounting for 50% of total consumption [9][10] - The household appliance sector is the largest consumer of ABS, representing over 45% of the total ABS consumption in China [9] Competitive Landscape - In 2024, the global acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to grow by 3.3%, with the top ten producers accounting for 71.6% of total capacity [12] - In China, the market concentration is high, with the top five producers holding 63.47% of the capacity, led by Sierbang Petrochemical [12][14] Development Trends - The acrylonitrile industry in China is anticipated to enter a new phase of capacity expansion in 2025, with an expected increase of over 1.3 million tons, pushing total capacity beyond 5.7 million tons [15] - However, low operating rates in downstream sectors are likely to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, leading to continued low-price fluctuations [15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic acrylonitrile industry is entering a new phase of capacity expansion, with significant concerns about supply-demand imbalance due to the projected increase in production capacity by over 1.3 million tons by 2025, potentially leading to a deep adjustment in the industry [1][2]. Capacity Expansion - In 2025, China's acrylonitrile industry is expected to undergo a concentrated expansion, with a total capacity increase of nearly 25% compared to the end of 2024, following the commissioning of several new facilities [2]. - The first expansion phase occurred from 2020 to 2023, where total capacity rose from 2.597 million tons to 4.399 million tons [2]. - The number of acrylonitrile producers is projected to increase from 16 to 20, leading to a decrease in the market concentration of the top five companies from 63.47% in 2024 to 55.91% in 2025, marking a five-year low [2]. Demand Saturation - The demand for acrylonitrile's three main downstream products is currently saturated, limiting the upward pull on upstream raw materials [3][4]. - ABS resin, which accounts for 50% of acrylonitrile consumption, has seen its production capacity grow rapidly, yet the industry average profit has plummeted to -253 yuan/ton in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 220.3% [3]. - The acrylic fiber sector is also facing demand pressures, with weaving enterprises operating at below 60% capacity and a 30% year-on-year decrease in overseas orders [4]. Future Opportunities - The acrylonitrile industry may find growth opportunities in high-end applications such as carbon fiber and high-performance engineering plastics, with an expected annual demand growth of 8% to 12% from 2025 to 2030 [5][6]. - The carbon fiber industry is expanding rapidly, with production increasing from 18,700 tons in 2020 to 59,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.28% [5]. - As new technologies and cost optimizations emerge, the carbon fiber sector is anticipated to create significant new demand for acrylonitrile, potentially leading to a market value exceeding 100 billion yuan [6]. Competitive Landscape - The acrylonitrile industry is experiencing intensified competition, making cost control crucial for survival [6]. - Companies with proprietary technologies can reduce production costs and meet high-end downstream demands, positioning themselves advantageously in the market [6].

公司代码：600688 公司简称：上海石化 编号：临 2025-031 注 1：销量不包括来料加工业务。 注 2：产销量差距部分为内部自用。 以上销量和销售收入数据不包含本集团石油化工产品贸易数据。 二、2025 年上半年主要产品和原材料价格变动情况 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"，连 同其附属公司，"本集团"）根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监 管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之《第十三号-化工》第十五条的 相关规定，特将截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日止 6 个月主要经营数据公告如 下： 产品名称 产量（万吨） 销量（万吨） 销售收入 （人民币千元） 炼油产品 柴油 119.87 118.62 7,705,825 汽油 166.81 167.58 13,496,370 航空煤油 注 1 112.61 68.69 3,316,209 化工产品 对二甲苯 注 2 35.29 35.25 2,124,337 苯 注 1 17.48 17.43 1,03 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qilu Petrochemical is committed to ecological priority and green development, implementing 62 energy-saving optimization measures from January to May, resulting in cost savings of over 60 million yuan [1] Group 1: Energy Efficiency and Cost Reduction - The company has established strict energy consumption assessment indicators and has achieved significant energy efficiency improvements, with all energy efficiency indicators in March exceeding industry limits [4][6] - From January to May, the comprehensive energy consumption of the refining sector decreased by 9.93% year-on-year, and single-factor energy consumption dropped by 11.73%, achieving dual compliance for both indicators [6] - The chemical sector has implemented targeted strategies, resulting in steam savings of 45,000 tons and electricity savings of 670,000 kWh per hour [7] Group 2: Carbon Reduction Initiatives - The CCUS project has reduced energy consumption by approximately 20% compared to its initial operation, with over 1.7 million tons of CO2 captured, equivalent to planting 15.3 million trees [10] - The company is accelerating the development of green low-carbon competitiveness through key projects like CCUS, hydrogen refueling, and solar power generation [10][11] Group 3: Cultural and Community Engagement - Qilu Petrochemical promotes a culture of energy conservation and carbon reduction through various educational initiatives, enhancing employee awareness and engagement [13][14] - The company has organized public open days to showcase its environmental protection efforts and achievements, receiving positive feedback from local communities [14]

Core Viewpoint - The acrylic industry in China is transitioning to a weak balance phase after significant adjustments in supply and demand, with production expected to rise from 580,000 tons in 2019 to 620,000 tons by 2024, while demand slightly decreases from 643,000 tons to 619,300 tons during the same period, indicating a narrowing supply-demand gap and deepening domestic substitution process [1][10]. Industry Development Overview - Acrylic, also known as polyacrylonitrile, is a high molecular compound primarily used to produce acrylic fibers, which are known for their good weather resistance and vibrant dyeing capabilities, but have limitations in moisture absorption and wear resistance [2]. Policy Background - The acrylic industry is influenced by dual policies focusing on environmental governance and industrial upgrading, with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasizing pollution control in the chemical fiber sector and promoting energy efficiency improvements [5][6]. Industry Chain - The acrylic industry chain relies on acrylonitrile as a core raw material produced by petrochemical companies, with vertical integration accelerating as leading companies establish their own acrylonitrile facilities to enhance cost control and extend into high-value areas like carbon fiber [8]. Current Industry Status - China produces over 30% of the world's acrylic fabrics and garments, with a significant shift in supply-demand dynamics leading to a narrowing gap by 2024, driven by capacity clearance and technological upgrades [10]. Trade Dynamics - The import-export landscape of the acrylic industry shows a reduction in imports from 89,000 tons to 44,400 tons and an increase in exports from 26,000 tons to 45,100 tons from 2019 to 2024, indicating enhanced international competitiveness of domestic acrylic products [12]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape features a concentration of leading firms like Jilin Chemical Fiber, which has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 9.6% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, while international giants are also investing in high-end material development [14][16]. Development Trends - The acrylic industry is expected to accelerate the integration of green low-carbon technologies, aiming for a 30% reduction in carbon footprint through innovations in raw materials and recycling systems, while also developing high-performance differentiated products for emerging markets [18].