2026 年 01 月 11 日 基础化工 硫磺价格在博弈中震荡前行，绿色能源 开年内外利好共振 事件：①据百川盈孚，截至 1 月 9 日，镇江港硫磺价格报 4190 元/吨，周环比+4.75%。②据新华社，国务院国资委 1 月 8 日发 布消息，经报国务院批准，中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航 空油料集团有限公司实施重组。 短期保供难改长期偏紧态势，硫磺价格在博弈中震荡前行 据中国农资传媒公众号，25 年 12 月以来，我国多方联动，锚定 硫磺保供稳价预期：①12 月 11 日，国家发改委牵头召开专题会 议，明确 26 年 8 月前我国磷肥原则上暂缓出口；②12 月 12 日， 中国硫酸工业协会发布行业倡议，倡导硫磺、硫酸等企业春耕前 满负荷生产，并将检修计划优先避让春耕关键期；③12 月 18 日， 中国硫酸工业协会与中国磷复肥工业协会再度联合召开专题会 议，鼓励冶炼酸企业与磷肥企业签订长期购销协议，并部署磷石 膏制酸技术研发，为长期硫资源保障布局。系列政策博弈下，短 期供需矛盾或可一定程度缓解，但我们认为硫磺产量增长受上游 炼化规模制约，保供政策难以从根本上扭转国内资源偏紧的格局。 需求侧我国磷酸铁锂以 ...

1月7日晚间，宝莫股份（002476）公告，公司于2026年1月7日收到实际控制人罗小林、韩明夫妇通知， 其正在筹划公司控制权变更相关事宜，具体方案以各方签署的相关协议为准。上述事项的具体方案尚在 筹划中，尚未签署正式协议，具有不确定性。公司将根据上述事项的进展情况，严格按照有关法律法规 的规定和要求履行信息披露义务。 值得注意的是，记者注意到，罗小林、韩明夫妇取得宝莫股份控制权才仅仅两年时间。有网友发帖 称，"这次控股股东这么快承认要跑，细思极恐"，这意味着，公司实控人夫妇入主后这么快就筹划控制 权变更的举措，可能在部分股民心中引发一些疑虑。 二级市场上，从分时图看，宝莫股份8日开盘后资金有分歧，跌超5%后一度有拉升，但此后整体震荡走 低，截至午间收盘跌2.25%。 宝莫股份近期的动向，是披露了第一大股东的质押情况。2025年12月24日，宝莫股份公告，第一大股东 四川兴天府宏凌解除质押股份7676万股，占其所持股份的79.38%及公司总股本的12.54%；同时再质押 7252万股，占其所持股份的75.00%及公司总股本的11.85%。截至公告披露日，兴天府宏凌累计质押 7252万股，占其所持股份的75%和 ...

Overview - In 2024, China's acrylonitrile production capacity is projected to be 4.399 million tons, remaining stable compared to 2023, while production is expected to reach 3.113 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.56% [2] - The capacity utilization rate has been declining since 2020, with a forecasted recovery to 70.8% in 2024. The rapid expansion of domestic acrylonitrile supply is leading to an increase in industry supply, while demand in key downstream products such as ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide remains weak. The apparent consumption of acrylonitrile in China is expected to be 2.946 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of only 0.08%, indicating a potential oversupply situation [2] Market Policies - Recent policies in China aim to promote high-quality development in the petrochemical industry, including guidance on technological innovation and industrial upgrades for acrylonitrile companies. These policies support the industry's transition towards high-end and green development [7][9] Industry Chain - The acrylonitrile industry chain consists of upstream suppliers of raw materials such as propylene, liquid ammonia, and catalysts, the midstream production segment, and downstream applications including ABS, acrylic fiber, acrylamide, nitrile latex, nitrile rubber, polymer polyols, and carbon fiber [10][11] Consumption Structure - The consumption of acrylonitrile is primarily concentrated in three sectors: ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide, with ABS accounting for the largest market share at 50%. The major consumption area for ABS is the electrical manufacturing industry, which is expected to represent over 70% of China's total ABS consumption in 2024, with household appliances being the largest segment [12]

Overview - In 2024, China's acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to remain at 4.399 million tons, with a production volume of 3.113 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.56% [1] - The capacity utilization rate has been declining since 2020 and is projected to recover to 70.8% in 2024, indicating an oversupply situation due to rapid expansion in domestic production [1][11] - The apparent consumption of acrylonitrile in China is forecasted to be 2.946 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of only 0.08%, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand [1][11] Market Policies - Recent policies in China aim to promote technological innovation and industrial upgrades in the acrylonitrile sector, steering the industry towards high-end and green development [6][7] Industry Chain - The acrylonitrile industry chain includes upstream suppliers of propylene, liquid ammonia, and catalysts; midstream production; and downstream applications in ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide [7][8] Consumption Structure - The consumption of acrylonitrile is primarily concentrated in three sectors: ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide, with ABS accounting for 50% of total consumption [9][10] - The household appliance sector is the largest consumer of ABS, representing over 45% of the total ABS consumption in China [9] Competitive Landscape - In 2024, the global acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to grow by 3.3%, with the top ten producers accounting for 71.6% of total capacity [12] - In China, the market concentration is high, with the top five producers holding 63.47% of the capacity, led by Sierbang Petrochemical [12][14] Development Trends - The acrylonitrile industry in China is anticipated to enter a new phase of capacity expansion in 2025, with an expected increase of over 1.3 million tons, pushing total capacity beyond 5.7 million tons [15] - However, low operating rates in downstream sectors are likely to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, leading to continued low-price fluctuations [15]

Core Viewpoint - Inorganic flocculants demonstrate significant application value across various fields, with water treatment being the core application area. The market for inorganic flocculants in China is projected to reach 3.049 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.38% [1][6]. Industry Overview - Inorganic flocculants, also known as inorganic coagulants, are water treatment agents composed of inorganic components (such as aluminum salts, iron salts, and silicates). They function through physical and chemical actions to aggregate suspended particles and colloids in water, forming larger flocs that can settle [2][3]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the inorganic flocculant industry chain includes raw materials like aluminum salts (aluminum hydroxide, aluminum sulfate), iron salts (ferric chloride, ferrous sulfate), and silicates (sodium silicate). The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of inorganic flocculants, while the downstream applications span water treatment, oil and gas, papermaking, and mining [3][4]. Market Size - The inorganic flocculant market in China is expected to reach 3.049 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.38%. The demand for inorganic flocculants is driven by the need for effective removal of pollutants in municipal and industrial wastewater treatment [1][6]. Key Companies - Shandong Baomo Biological Chemical Co., Ltd. focuses on fine chemicals and environmental water treatment, with a production capacity of 30,000 tons/year for acrylamide and 33,000 tons/year for anionic polyacrylamide. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 268 million yuan, up 26.16% year-on-year [7]. - Jiangsu Fumiao Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in hydrophilic functional polymers, with products used in various applications including papermaking and water treatment. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 721 million yuan, down 5.80% year-on-year [8]. Industry Development Trends 1. The inorganic flocculant industry will increasingly focus on technological innovation and product upgrades, driven by rising environmental standards. Companies are expected to invest more in R&D to develop more efficient and eco-friendly products [9]. 2. The application of intelligent and automated technologies will become a significant trend, enhancing production efficiency and product quality while reducing costs and energy consumption [10]. 3. The market applications for inorganic flocculants will continue to expand, particularly in municipal wastewater treatment and industrial applications, with a noticeable trend towards industry consolidation as larger companies seek to increase market share [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic acrylonitrile industry is entering a new phase of capacity expansion, with significant concerns about supply-demand imbalance due to the projected increase in production capacity by over 1.3 million tons by 2025, potentially leading to a deep adjustment in the industry [1][2]. Capacity Expansion - In 2025, China's acrylonitrile industry is expected to undergo a concentrated expansion, with a total capacity increase of nearly 25% compared to the end of 2024, following the commissioning of several new facilities [2]. - The first expansion phase occurred from 2020 to 2023, where total capacity rose from 2.597 million tons to 4.399 million tons [2]. - The number of acrylonitrile producers is projected to increase from 16 to 20, leading to a decrease in the market concentration of the top five companies from 63.47% in 2024 to 55.91% in 2025, marking a five-year low [2]. Demand Saturation - The demand for acrylonitrile's three main downstream products is currently saturated, limiting the upward pull on upstream raw materials [3][4]. - ABS resin, which accounts for 50% of acrylonitrile consumption, has seen its production capacity grow rapidly, yet the industry average profit has plummeted to -253 yuan/ton in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 220.3% [3]. - The acrylic fiber sector is also facing demand pressures, with weaving enterprises operating at below 60% capacity and a 30% year-on-year decrease in overseas orders [4]. Future Opportunities - The acrylonitrile industry may find growth opportunities in high-end applications such as carbon fiber and high-performance engineering plastics, with an expected annual demand growth of 8% to 12% from 2025 to 2030 [5][6]. - The carbon fiber industry is expanding rapidly, with production increasing from 18,700 tons in 2020 to 59,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.28% [5]. - As new technologies and cost optimizations emerge, the carbon fiber sector is anticipated to create significant new demand for acrylonitrile, potentially leading to a market value exceeding 100 billion yuan [6]. Competitive Landscape - The acrylonitrile industry is experiencing intensified competition, making cost control crucial for survival [6]. - Companies with proprietary technologies can reduce production costs and meet high-end downstream demands, positioning themselves advantageously in the market [6].

Company Overview - Baomo Co., Ltd. latest stock price is 5.67 CNY, up by 0.52 CNY from the previous trading day [1] - The opening price for the day was 5.16 CNY, with a highest price of 5.67 CNY and a lowest price of 5.16 CNY [1] - Trading volume reached 1.1579 million hands, with a total transaction amount of 649 million CNY [1] Business Operations - Baomo Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of fine chemical products [1] - Main products include acrylamide and polyacrylamide, which are widely used in oil extraction, water treatment, and papermaking industries [1] Industry Performance - The overall performance of the oil and petrochemical industry saw an increase of 2.36% on the same day [1] - The net inflow of main funds in the industry was 561 million CNY [1] - Baomo Co., Ltd. experienced a net inflow of main funds amounting to 128 million CNY, ranking second in the industry, just behind Hengli Petrochemical [1]

Core Viewpoint - The acrylonitrile industry is facing a new round of capacity expansion and demand shrinkage, leading to a potential mismatch in supply and demand dynamics. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The domestic acrylonitrile industry is expected to see a significant increase in capacity, with over 1 million tons of new capacity projected for 2025 after a period of no new capacity additions in 2024 [1] - New production lines have already been launched, including a 130,000 tons/year line by Yulong Petrochemical in March and a new facility by Sinochem in Quanzhou in April, contributing to a total of 590,000 tons/year of new capacity in the first half of the year, representing a 13.41% increase compared to the end of 2024 [1] - If all planned facilities come online as scheduled, the total national acrylonitrile capacity could reach approximately 5.71 million tons/year, marking a 30% increase [1] Group 2: Demand Challenges - The downstream operating rates remain low, contrasting sharply with the significant increase in acrylonitrile capacity, particularly in the ABS industry, which has released 1.4 million tons/year of new capacity but is primarily focused on standard materials [2] - The textile industry, a key downstream sector, is experiencing a downturn, with operating rates falling below 60% and overseas orders decreasing by 30% year-on-year, leading to production cuts exceeding 2 million tons/year [2] - The demand for acrylamide is also weak due to global economic sluggishness, with limited growth in traditional sectors and insufficient demand in emerging areas, despite some support from "dual carbon" and environmental policies [2] Group 3: Price and Market Outlook - The price of acrylonitrile has been under pressure, with an average price decline of 5.19% year-on-year, remaining at mid-low levels compared to the past five years [3] - Despite initial theoretical profitability exceeding 1,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, the market quickly returned to a loss state due to the rapid release of capacity [3] - Overall demand growth is expected to be limited, with the ABS sector's new capacity likely contributing less than 200,000 tons to acrylonitrile consumption, and the supply growth rate anticipated to outpace demand growth, maintaining a surplus situation in the market [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution," driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and particularly synthetic biology manufacturing, which is seen as a key player in transforming industrial production processes [2][3]. Industry Transformation - Synthetic biology manufacturing is positioned as a transformative force in the fine chemical industry, promoting a shift towards green, low-carbon, and sustainable development models [3][5]. - Compared to traditional petrochemical routes, synthetic biology manufacturing can achieve energy savings and emissions reductions of 30% to 50%, with future potential reaching 50% to 70% [3][5]. Technological Advancements - The article highlights the successful engineering validation of biocatalysts, such as the use of nitrile hydratase to replace traditional copper catalysts in the production of acrylamide, leading to lower reaction temperatures and large-scale production [4][6]. - The development of high-efficiency microbial cell factories and enzyme-based catalysts is emphasized as a new production model, showcasing the potential for green and efficient synthesis of materials [6][7]. Market Potential - The market for synthetic biology technologies is projected to reach $17 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.8%, indicating significant economic potential [5]. - The global demand for L-methionine, a key amino acid, is expected to reach approximately 1.7 million tons in 2023, valued at around 33 billion yuan, highlighting the industry's growth phase [6]. Industry Collaboration - Successful collaborations between academic institutions and companies are driving the industrialization of synthetic biology, with examples including the establishment of large-scale production lines for various biochemicals [7]. - The "Yangtze River Delta Synthetic Biology Manufacturing Corridor" is projected to achieve nearly 100 billion yuan in total revenue by 2024, reflecting the expanding influence of synthetic biology across the nation [7].

Industry Overview - The oil processing trade sector has shown strong performance, with the sector rising over 2% as of June 19, 2023, and individual stocks such as Baomo Co., Ltd. and Maohua Shihua reaching the daily limit [1] - Recent oil price increases have been significant, with WTI crude futures rising by 13.81% and Brent crude futures by 12.80% from June 6 to June 13, 2023, primarily driven by geopolitical factors affecting the oil processing trade sector [1] - The internationalization of oil processing trade is increasing, with China being one of the largest oil importers globally, enhancing the influence of domestic companies in international markets [1] Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the development prospects of the oil processing trade sector, driven by global economic recovery, demand growth, and policy support [2] - Companies are expected to enhance their capabilities through technological innovation and industrial upgrades, potentially gaining larger market shares and profits [2] - The stabilization and recovery of international oil prices, along with geopolitical uncertainties, may further enhance the valuation of the oil processing trade sector, providing good investment returns [2] Company Profiles - **Baomo Co., Ltd. (002476)**: Main business includes oilfield chemicals, fine chemicals, and environmental water treatment, with key products like acrylamide and polyacrylamide [2] - **Maohua Shihua (000637)**: Engaged in the production and sales of petrochemical products, with major products including polypropylene and liquefied petroleum gas [2] - **Baoli International (300135)**: Focuses on the production and sales of modified asphalt and other specialized asphalt products [2] - **Daqing Huake (000985)**: Specializes in fine petrochemical products and pharmaceuticals, with key products including C5 and C9 fractions [3] - **Heshun Petroleum (603353)**: Operates gas station chains, storage, logistics, and wholesale of finished oil products [4] - **Taishan Petroleum (000554)**: Engaged in wholesale and retail of finished oil products, including gasoline and diesel [4] - **Unified Co., Ltd. (600506)**: Focuses on the research, production, and sales of lubricants [4] - **Bohui Co., Ltd. (300839)**: Engaged in the research, production, and sales of specialty aromatic products [5]