内容概要：2024年我国丙烯腈产能为439.9万吨，与2023年持平；产量完成311.3万吨，同比增长6.56%；产能利用率自2020年后持续下滑，2024年回调至 70.8，随着国内丙烯腈供给端快速扩张，行业供应量持续增加，而其主要下游产品ABS、腈纶、丙烯酰胺等领域需求疲软，2024年我国丙烯腈表观消费量为 294.6万吨，增长率仅0.08%，对比同年产能和产量的增长率，我国丙烯腈面临供应过剩的局面。 上市企业：东方盛虹（000301）、中国石油（601857）、中国石化（600028） 相关企业：上海赛科石油化工有限责任公司、浙江石油化工有限公司、辽宁金发科技有限公司、利华益集团股份有限公司、山东科鲁尔化学有限公司、中海 油富岛（海南）化工有限公司、天辰齐翔新材料有限公司、山东海江化工有限公司、中国石油天然气股份有限公司大庆炼化分公司、中国石油化工股份有限 公司镇海炼化分公司、山东裕龙石化有限公司、中化泉州石化有限公司、中石化英力士（天津）石化有限公司 关键词：丙烯腈生产工艺、丙烯腈市场政策、丙烯腈产业链、丙烯腈供需现状、丙烯腈进出口贸易、丙烯腈竞争格局、丙烯腈发展趋势 一、概述 按纯度等级不同，丙烯腈 ...

Overview - In 2024, China's acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to remain at 4.399 million tons, with a production volume of 3.113 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.56% [1] - The capacity utilization rate has been declining since 2020 and is projected to recover to 70.8% in 2024, indicating an oversupply situation due to rapid expansion in domestic production [1][11] - The apparent consumption of acrylonitrile in China is forecasted to be 2.946 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of only 0.08%, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand [1][11] Market Policies - Recent policies in China aim to promote technological innovation and industrial upgrades in the acrylonitrile sector, steering the industry towards high-end and green development [6][7] Industry Chain - The acrylonitrile industry chain includes upstream suppliers of propylene, liquid ammonia, and catalysts; midstream production; and downstream applications in ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide [7][8] Consumption Structure - The consumption of acrylonitrile is primarily concentrated in three sectors: ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide, with ABS accounting for 50% of total consumption [9][10] - The household appliance sector is the largest consumer of ABS, representing over 45% of the total ABS consumption in China [9] Competitive Landscape - In 2024, the global acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to grow by 3.3%, with the top ten producers accounting for 71.6% of total capacity [12] - In China, the market concentration is high, with the top five producers holding 63.47% of the capacity, led by Sierbang Petrochemical [12][14] Development Trends - The acrylonitrile industry in China is anticipated to enter a new phase of capacity expansion in 2025, with an expected increase of over 1.3 million tons, pushing total capacity beyond 5.7 million tons [15] - However, low operating rates in downstream sectors are likely to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, leading to continued low-price fluctuations [15]

Core Viewpoint - Inorganic flocculants demonstrate significant application value across various fields, with water treatment being the core application area. The market for inorganic flocculants in China is projected to reach 3.049 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.38% [1][6]. Industry Overview - Inorganic flocculants, also known as inorganic coagulants, are water treatment agents composed of inorganic components (such as aluminum salts, iron salts, and silicates). They function through physical and chemical actions to aggregate suspended particles and colloids in water, forming larger flocs that can settle [2][3]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the inorganic flocculant industry chain includes raw materials like aluminum salts (aluminum hydroxide, aluminum sulfate), iron salts (ferric chloride, ferrous sulfate), and silicates (sodium silicate). The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of inorganic flocculants, while the downstream applications span water treatment, oil and gas, papermaking, and mining [3][4]. Market Size - The inorganic flocculant market in China is expected to reach 3.049 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.38%. The demand for inorganic flocculants is driven by the need for effective removal of pollutants in municipal and industrial wastewater treatment [1][6]. Key Companies - Shandong Baomo Biological Chemical Co., Ltd. focuses on fine chemicals and environmental water treatment, with a production capacity of 30,000 tons/year for acrylamide and 33,000 tons/year for anionic polyacrylamide. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 268 million yuan, up 26.16% year-on-year [7]. - Jiangsu Fumiao Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in hydrophilic functional polymers, with products used in various applications including papermaking and water treatment. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 721 million yuan, down 5.80% year-on-year [8]. Industry Development Trends 1. The inorganic flocculant industry will increasingly focus on technological innovation and product upgrades, driven by rising environmental standards. Companies are expected to invest more in R&D to develop more efficient and eco-friendly products [9]. 2. The application of intelligent and automated technologies will become a significant trend, enhancing production efficiency and product quality while reducing costs and energy consumption [10]. 3. The market applications for inorganic flocculants will continue to expand, particularly in municipal wastewater treatment and industrial applications, with a noticeable trend towards industry consolidation as larger companies seek to increase market share [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic acrylonitrile industry is entering a new phase of capacity expansion, with significant concerns about supply-demand imbalance due to the projected increase in production capacity by over 1.3 million tons by 2025, potentially leading to a deep adjustment in the industry [1][2]. Capacity Expansion - In 2025, China's acrylonitrile industry is expected to undergo a concentrated expansion, with a total capacity increase of nearly 25% compared to the end of 2024, following the commissioning of several new facilities [2]. - The first expansion phase occurred from 2020 to 2023, where total capacity rose from 2.597 million tons to 4.399 million tons [2]. - The number of acrylonitrile producers is projected to increase from 16 to 20, leading to a decrease in the market concentration of the top five companies from 63.47% in 2024 to 55.91% in 2025, marking a five-year low [2]. Demand Saturation - The demand for acrylonitrile's three main downstream products is currently saturated, limiting the upward pull on upstream raw materials [3][4]. - ABS resin, which accounts for 50% of acrylonitrile consumption, has seen its production capacity grow rapidly, yet the industry average profit has plummeted to -253 yuan/ton in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 220.3% [3]. - The acrylic fiber sector is also facing demand pressures, with weaving enterprises operating at below 60% capacity and a 30% year-on-year decrease in overseas orders [4]. Future Opportunities - The acrylonitrile industry may find growth opportunities in high-end applications such as carbon fiber and high-performance engineering plastics, with an expected annual demand growth of 8% to 12% from 2025 to 2030 [5][6]. - The carbon fiber industry is expanding rapidly, with production increasing from 18,700 tons in 2020 to 59,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.28% [5]. - As new technologies and cost optimizations emerge, the carbon fiber sector is anticipated to create significant new demand for acrylonitrile, potentially leading to a market value exceeding 100 billion yuan [6]. Competitive Landscape - The acrylonitrile industry is experiencing intensified competition, making cost control crucial for survival [6]. - Companies with proprietary technologies can reduce production costs and meet high-end downstream demands, positioning themselves advantageously in the market [6].

Company Overview - Baomo Co., Ltd. latest stock price is 5.67 CNY, up by 0.52 CNY from the previous trading day [1] - The opening price for the day was 5.16 CNY, with a highest price of 5.67 CNY and a lowest price of 5.16 CNY [1] - Trading volume reached 1.1579 million hands, with a total transaction amount of 649 million CNY [1] Business Operations - Baomo Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of fine chemical products [1] - Main products include acrylamide and polyacrylamide, which are widely used in oil extraction, water treatment, and papermaking industries [1] Industry Performance - The overall performance of the oil and petrochemical industry saw an increase of 2.36% on the same day [1] - The net inflow of main funds in the industry was 561 million CNY [1] - Baomo Co., Ltd. experienced a net inflow of main funds amounting to 128 million CNY, ranking second in the industry, just behind Hengli Petrochemical [1]

Core Viewpoint - The acrylonitrile industry is facing a new round of capacity expansion and demand shrinkage, leading to a potential mismatch in supply and demand dynamics. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The domestic acrylonitrile industry is expected to see a significant increase in capacity, with over 1 million tons of new capacity projected for 2025 after a period of no new capacity additions in 2024 [1] - New production lines have already been launched, including a 130,000 tons/year line by Yulong Petrochemical in March and a new facility by Sinochem in Quanzhou in April, contributing to a total of 590,000 tons/year of new capacity in the first half of the year, representing a 13.41% increase compared to the end of 2024 [1] - If all planned facilities come online as scheduled, the total national acrylonitrile capacity could reach approximately 5.71 million tons/year, marking a 30% increase [1] Group 2: Demand Challenges - The downstream operating rates remain low, contrasting sharply with the significant increase in acrylonitrile capacity, particularly in the ABS industry, which has released 1.4 million tons/year of new capacity but is primarily focused on standard materials [2] - The textile industry, a key downstream sector, is experiencing a downturn, with operating rates falling below 60% and overseas orders decreasing by 30% year-on-year, leading to production cuts exceeding 2 million tons/year [2] - The demand for acrylamide is also weak due to global economic sluggishness, with limited growth in traditional sectors and insufficient demand in emerging areas, despite some support from "dual carbon" and environmental policies [2] Group 3: Price and Market Outlook - The price of acrylonitrile has been under pressure, with an average price decline of 5.19% year-on-year, remaining at mid-low levels compared to the past five years [3] - Despite initial theoretical profitability exceeding 1,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, the market quickly returned to a loss state due to the rapid release of capacity [3] - Overall demand growth is expected to be limited, with the ABS sector's new capacity likely contributing less than 200,000 tons to acrylonitrile consumption, and the supply growth rate anticipated to outpace demand growth, maintaining a surplus situation in the market [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution," driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and particularly synthetic biology manufacturing, which is seen as a key player in transforming industrial production processes [2][3]. Industry Transformation - Synthetic biology manufacturing is positioned as a transformative force in the fine chemical industry, promoting a shift towards green, low-carbon, and sustainable development models [3][5]. - Compared to traditional petrochemical routes, synthetic biology manufacturing can achieve energy savings and emissions reductions of 30% to 50%, with future potential reaching 50% to 70% [3][5]. Technological Advancements - The article highlights the successful engineering validation of biocatalysts, such as the use of nitrile hydratase to replace traditional copper catalysts in the production of acrylamide, leading to lower reaction temperatures and large-scale production [4][6]. - The development of high-efficiency microbial cell factories and enzyme-based catalysts is emphasized as a new production model, showcasing the potential for green and efficient synthesis of materials [6][7]. Market Potential - The market for synthetic biology technologies is projected to reach $17 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.8%, indicating significant economic potential [5]. - The global demand for L-methionine, a key amino acid, is expected to reach approximately 1.7 million tons in 2023, valued at around 33 billion yuan, highlighting the industry's growth phase [6]. Industry Collaboration - Successful collaborations between academic institutions and companies are driving the industrialization of synthetic biology, with examples including the establishment of large-scale production lines for various biochemicals [7]. - The "Yangtze River Delta Synthetic Biology Manufacturing Corridor" is projected to achieve nearly 100 billion yuan in total revenue by 2024, reflecting the expanding influence of synthetic biology across the nation [7].

Industry Overview - The oil processing trade sector has shown strong performance, with the sector rising over 2% as of June 19, 2023, and individual stocks such as Baomo Co., Ltd. and Maohua Shihua reaching the daily limit [1] - Recent oil price increases have been significant, with WTI crude futures rising by 13.81% and Brent crude futures by 12.80% from June 6 to June 13, 2023, primarily driven by geopolitical factors affecting the oil processing trade sector [1] - The internationalization of oil processing trade is increasing, with China being one of the largest oil importers globally, enhancing the influence of domestic companies in international markets [1] Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the development prospects of the oil processing trade sector, driven by global economic recovery, demand growth, and policy support [2] - Companies are expected to enhance their capabilities through technological innovation and industrial upgrades, potentially gaining larger market shares and profits [2] - The stabilization and recovery of international oil prices, along with geopolitical uncertainties, may further enhance the valuation of the oil processing trade sector, providing good investment returns [2] Company Profiles - **Baomo Co., Ltd. (002476)**: Main business includes oilfield chemicals, fine chemicals, and environmental water treatment, with key products like acrylamide and polyacrylamide [2] - **Maohua Shihua (000637)**: Engaged in the production and sales of petrochemical products, with major products including polypropylene and liquefied petroleum gas [2] - **Baoli International (300135)**: Focuses on the production and sales of modified asphalt and other specialized asphalt products [2] - **Daqing Huake (000985)**: Specializes in fine petrochemical products and pharmaceuticals, with key products including C5 and C9 fractions [3] - **Heshun Petroleum (603353)**: Operates gas station chains, storage, logistics, and wholesale of finished oil products [4] - **Taishan Petroleum (000554)**: Engaged in wholesale and retail of finished oil products, including gasoline and diesel [4] - **Unified Co., Ltd. (600506)**: Focuses on the research, production, and sales of lubricants [4] - **Bohui Co., Ltd. (300839)**: Engaged in the research, production, and sales of specialty aromatic products [5]

Core Insights - The company has completed the first phase of the Anqing project, which has an annual production capacity of 70,000 tons of polymer chemicals, including 50,000 tons of polypropylene and 20,000 tons of CPA [1] - The project is expected to start trial production in the second quarter of 2025, with construction progress reaching approximately 90% for key installations [1][2] - The project aims to achieve full production capacity within five years, with projected revenues of 798.67 million yuan at full capacity [2] Project Development - The Anqing project has received significant funding, including 11.56 million yuan in government special funds and 225.39 million yuan in bank loans [1] - The project has successfully completed essential environmental and safety assessments, and the main structure has been capped [1] - The production preparation, personnel training, and trial production plans are being actively advanced to ensure a smooth transition to operational status [1] Market Potential - The company’s products, including APAM and CPAM, are expected to meet growing market demands in various sectors such as water treatment and oil extraction [2] - The market for water treatment chemicals is expanding due to increased environmental regulations and investments from downstream enterprises [2] - The company holds a significant market share in the high-end polymer sector, with a strong focus on R&D and product quality [3][5] R&D and Competitive Advantage - The company is a leader in the bio-method production of acrylic acid, achieving high conversion rates and product purity [3] - Continuous collaboration with universities and research institutions enhances the company’s production processes and technological standards [3] - The company’s high-end acrylic products have competitive pricing and performance compared to international counterparts, with purity levels reaching 98.9% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports have raised concerns about the presence of the food additive TBHQ (tert-Butylhydroquinone) in Lay's potato chips, leading to public anxiety over food safety [2][5]. Group 1: TBHQ and Food Safety - TBHQ is an artificial oil-soluble antioxidant used to extend the shelf life of food, with a maximum allowable limit of 0.2 grams per kilogram in food products as per national regulations [2][6]. - Experts indicate that while small amounts of TBHQ are considered safe, excessive long-term consumption may pose health risks, although there is currently no conclusive evidence linking TBHQ to cancer [5][6]. - The World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) does not classify TBHQ as a carcinogen, and its use is permitted in various countries, including the U.S. [5][6]. Group 2: Public Reaction and Industry Response - Public reactions have been mixed, with some expressing fear and others dismissing the concerns as exaggerated [2][5]. - Lay's has stated that its products comply with national standards regarding TBHQ usage, emphasizing that the additive is legally permitted within specified limits [2][5]. - The controversy surrounding TBHQ has led some food companies to opt for natural antioxidants, such as vitamin E and rosemary extract, in response to consumer demand for natural ingredients [5]. Group 3: Previous Concerns and Financial Performance - Lay's has faced scrutiny in the past regarding acrylamide levels in its products, which exceeded the EU benchmark of 750 micrograms per kilogram [10]. - Despite these challenges, Lay's remains a market leader in China's snack food sector, holding a 52% market share, and has contributed significantly to PepsiCo's revenue growth, with reported earnings of $6.407 billion in the first three quarters of fiscal year 2024, a 0.7% increase year-over-year [10].