投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 丙烯 基本面尚未好转 宝城期货 陈栋 当前国内丙烯期货市场面临产能持续扩张与下游需求疲软的双重压力，基本面呈现出供需失衡的特 征。在偏弱产业链逻辑主导下，丙烯期价重心稳步下移。上周丙烯期货主力合约价格一度跌破 5900 元/吨 关口，最低下探至 5851 元/吨。虽然期价展开超跌反弹行情，但上行阻力依然存在。眼下丙烯市场仍处在"投 产周期"与"需求疲软"的双重夹击之下，未来偏弱运行节奏或是主旋律。 国内丙烯供应压力较大 从供给端看，国内丙烯产能仍处于快速扩张周期。2024 年中国丙烯总产能已达 7044 万吨/年，产能利 用率仅为 76.6%，行业整体处于供过于求状态。进入 2025 年，尽管新增产能投放节奏有所放缓，但全年预 计仍有超过 500 万吨的新产能释放，产能扩张的惯性仍在延续。其中，丙烷脱氢（PDH）工艺成为扩产主 力，产能占比已升至 32.3%，主要由民营企业推动，行业集中度较低，竞争格局日趋激烈。然而，PDH 装 置普遍面临成本压力，受国际丙烷价格波动影响，多数装置处于亏损或微利状态，导致行业开工率长期徘 徊在偏低水平，形 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a slight narrowing of price differentials during the traditional off-season, and asset impairment is expected to ease in the future [6] - The company reported a total revenue of 21.918 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.023 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year [6] - The company is progressing well with its ongoing projects, which supports significant long-term development potential [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 30.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 13.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.5% [5] - The company has adjusted its 2025 profit forecast downwards due to asset impairment, now expecting a net profit of 1.499 billion yuan compared to the previous estimate of 1.914 billion yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.941 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 14.63% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 153 million yuan, up 5.14% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 692 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 33 million yuan, down 46.18% year-on-year and down 51.90% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company has a contract asset of 190 million yuan in Q3 2025, which is a 102.8% increase compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to the confirmation of income from various engineering projects [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.941 billion yuan, with a net profit of 153 million yuan. The Q3 revenue was 692 million yuan, with a net profit of 33 million yuan [2][6]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 250 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 500 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.8X, 15.3X, and 11.3X [13]. Market and Industry Analysis - The chemical sector is under pressure, with the average market price of normal propanol around 7070 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, down 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [13]. - The company is advancing coal chemical projects and refining transformation projects, supported by national policies aimed at enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [13]. Product and Technology Development - The company is the largest producer of normal propanol in China and is focusing on optimizing production processes for various aldehydes and alcohols [13]. - The high-end cellulose products are expected to benefit from domestic substitution trends, with a significant production capacity upgrade planned for acetate butyrate cellulose [13].

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Shuguang Chemical Group Co., Ltd. is facing scrutiny from regulators and the market due to abnormal fluctuations in net profit, high proportion of related party transactions, and allegations against its actual controller, Yu Yongfa, for illegally holding shares on behalf of seven state-owned enterprise leaders [2][17][24] Group 1: Financial Performance and Governance Issues - The company has shown significant volatility in its financial performance, with net profits fluctuating dramatically over the past few years, raising concerns about its governance and compliance [6][10] - Shuguang Group's financial statements reveal a stark contrast between reported net profit and actual earnings, indicating potential issues with its internal equity structure and arrangements [2][11] - The actual controller, Yu Yongfa, has been implicated in manipulating the company to lend large sums to related parties without repayment, highlighting serious internal control deficiencies [2][26] Group 2: IPO and Investment Plans - The company aims to raise approximately 1.5 billion yuan through its IPO, primarily to fund projects including a 100,000-ton BDO and 12,000-ton PBAT production facility, a 46,000-ton PTMEG project, and a research center [4][5] - Despite its significant production capacity in cyanide, Shuguang Group's revenue has been declining, with a reported revenue of 3.78 billion yuan in 2021, decreasing to 3.54 billion yuan in 2023 [6][9] Group 3: Related Party Transactions and Control Structure - Shuguang Group heavily relies on related party transactions, raising questions about its independence and profitability [3][15] - The largest shareholders of its most profitable subsidiary, Shuguang Dingshin, are state-owned enterprises, with Yu Yongfa only holding a minority stake, suggesting that the company may not be leveraging its full potential for profit [11][14] Group 4: Compliance and Regulatory Concerns - The company has a history of compliance issues, including the illegal transfer of state-owned shares and the involvement of state enterprise leaders in shareholding arrangements that may constitute a conflict of interest [17][22] - Safety management has also been a concern, with past incidents resulting in fatalities, raising doubts about the company's commitment to regulatory compliance [28]

Core Insights - The Fuzhou City in Fujian Province launched a significant project, the Fuzhou Zhongjing Alkane Integration Project (Phase II), with a total investment of 11.02 billion yuan [1] - The project aims to enhance the production capacity of propylene and butanol, contributing to the transformation of the petrochemical industry towards higher value-added products [1] Investment and Economic Impact - The total investment for the project is 11.02 billion yuan, covering an area of approximately 530 acres with a total construction area of 25,000 square meters [1] - Upon completion, the project is expected to generate an additional output value of around 20 billion yuan [1] Production Capacity - The project includes an upstream production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons of propylene and a by-product of 40,000 tons of hydrogen [1] - It also features a downstream facility with an annual production capacity of 1 million tons of butanol [1] Industry Positioning - The project will further solidify Zhongjing Petrochemical Industrial Park's position as the world's largest alkane integration industrial base [1] - It aims to drive the transformation and upgrading of Fuzhou's petrochemical industry towards a more refined and high-value-added direction [1]

Group 1 - A total of 188 major projects were launched in Fuzhou, with a total investment of 136.31 billion RMB and an annual planned investment of 28.67 billion RMB [1] - Among the 188 projects, there are 109 industrial projects with a total investment of 70.43 billion RMB and an annual planned investment of 16.04 billion RMB [1] - Social welfare projects account for 30 projects with a total investment of 33.16 billion RMB and an annual planned investment of 6.74 billion RMB [1] - Infrastructure projects consist of 49 projects with a total investment of 32.72 billion RMB and an annual planned investment of 5.89 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - The main event for the project launch was held at the site of the Fuzhou Zhongjing Alkane Integration Project (Phase II), which has a total investment of 11.02 billion RMB [1] - The project is located in the Fuzhou Jiangyin Port City Economic Zone, covering an area of approximately 530 acres with a total construction area of 25,000 square meters [1] - The project aims to produce 1.2 million tons of propylene and 40,000 tons of hydrogen annually, along with downstream facilities for 1 million tons of dibutyl alcohol [1] - The chairman of China Soft Packaging Group stated that the project is expected to be completed and put into production within two years, generating an additional output value of 20 billion RMB [1] - Once fully operational, the project will solidify Zhongjing Petrochemical's position as the world's largest alkane integration industrial base and promote the transformation of Fuzhou's petrochemical industry towards refinement and high added value [1] Group 3 - Additional projects such as the Yongtai County Zhangtai Agricultural Integration Development Demonstration Base and the Fuzhou Taiwan Business Investment Zone External Connection Project were also launched simultaneously in Yongtai County and Luoyuan County [2]

Core Points - Fuzhou launched 188 major projects with a total investment of 136.31 billion RMB, aiming for an annual planned investment of 28.67 billion RMB [1] - The projects include 109 industrial projects with a total investment of 70.43 billion RMB, 30 social welfare projects with 33.16 billion RMB, and 49 infrastructure projects with 32.72 billion RMB [1] Industrial Projects - The major industrial project highlighted is the Fuzhou Zhongjing Aromatics Integration Project (Phase II), with a total investment of 11.02 billion RMB [1] - This project will produce 1.2 million tons of propylene and 100,000 tons of butanol annually, contributing an additional output value of 20 billion RMB upon completion [1] Social Welfare Projects - There are 30 social welfare projects included in the major project launch, with a total investment of 33.16 billion RMB and an annual planned investment of 6.74 billion RMB [1] Infrastructure Projects - The infrastructure projects consist of 49 initiatives with a total investment of 32.72 billion RMB and an annual planned investment of 5.89 billion RMB [1] Economic Impact - The completion of the Zhongjing Aromatics Integration Project is expected to solidify Fuzhou's position as a leading global base for aromatic integration, promoting the petrochemical industry towards a more refined and high-value direction [1]

Core Insights - The report titled "2025 Research on High-Quality Development of Chemical Parks" was released by the New Materials Industry Research Center of CCID Consulting on October 9, highlighting the competitive landscape of chemical parks in China [1] Summary by Sections Overview of Chemical Parks - As of July 31, 2024, a total of 745 chemical parks have been recognized across 30 provinces in China, with Shandong leading with 84 parks [1] - Shandong has 16 parks listed in the top rankings, the highest in the country, with cities like Dongying, Zibo, Weifang, and Qingdao contributing multiple parks [1] Rankings of Chemical Parks - The top three chemical parks are: 1. Shanghai Chemical Industry Park (Shanghai) 2. Huizhou Daya Bay Petrochemical Industrial Park (Guangdong) 3. Ningbo Petrochemical Economic and Technological Development Zone (Zhejiang) [2] - Zibo's three parks include: - Qilu Chemical Industrial Zone (ranked 3rd) - Dongyue Fluorosilicon Material Industrial Park (ranked 31st) - Hantai Majiao Chemical Industrial Park (ranked 39th) [2][3] Performance Changes - Compared to 2024, the rankings of the three Zibo parks have decreased by 2, 10, and 2 positions respectively [3] Evaluation Criteria - The evaluation system for the "Top 100 Comprehensive Competitiveness of Chemical Parks" considers four dimensions: industrial foundation, innovation, potential, and transformation, with 13 secondary indicators and 28 tertiary indicators [4] - The report aims to guide the high-quality development of chemical parks by assessing their current status and future potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - Propylene futures experienced slight fluctuations, closing at 6420.0 yuan with a 0.22% increase, indicating a mixed market sentiment regarding future price movements [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Newhu Futures reported that propylene prices are fluctuating, with current spot prices at 6600 yuan/ton in East China and 6680 yuan/ton in Shandong, indicating limited circulation pressure in Shandong due to some plants planning to restart [1] - The new production capacity scheduled for September is mostly paired with downstream facilities, which will have a limited impact on circulating spot prices [1] - The rising price of propane is providing cost support, while terminal demand remains stable, leading to thin production profits and low acceptance of high-priced sources by manufacturers [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Huatai Futures noted that the supply side is tightening, with the restart of Wanhu's facilities and expectations for Hebei Haiwei's restart, while Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart is delayed until mid to late September [1] - The overall operating rate of propylene is declining, which supports the continuous rise of spot prices, although high propylene prices are compressing downstream profits, leading to reduced purchasing enthusiasm [1] - The cost side remains supported by OPEC+ production expectations and stable external propane prices, while the overall sentiment towards propylene remains cautious [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 5.981 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.1256 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 637 million yuan during the same period [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The clean energy business faced declining sales prices and gross margins, negatively impacting overall performance [1] - The semiconductor display materials business, particularly liquid crystal products, reached historical highs in production and sales, significantly enhancing profitability [1] - The life sciences business focused on green manufacturing and health products, with online sales revenue increasing by 70% year-on-year and offline sales revenue rising by 12% [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing the "Chengzhi 2.0" strategic plan, focusing on high-end semiconductor display materials, chemical new materials, and synthetic biology [1] - Nanjing Chengzhi is optimizing its sales strategy to enhance economic benefits amid challenging market conditions for methanol and olefin products [2] - Chengzhi Yongqing is adjusting its sales strategy to counteract market price pressures by promoting contract sales and expanding into new markets [2] Group 4: Market Position and Innovation - Shijiazhuang Chengzhi Yonghua is a leading manufacturer in the liquid crystal materials sector, focusing on innovation and maintaining market leadership despite intense competition [3] - The company has increased its market share and reported over 30% year-on-year growth in sales revenue and net profit for TFT-LCD liquid crystal materials [3]