证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 投资策略 3 月策略观点与金股推荐：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 一、3 月市场观点：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 二月以来，多重因素正在推动资金定价向"涨价"条线倾斜。其一，叙事层面，AI 科技革命的叙事定价逻辑开始向实物资产"外溢"；其二，供需层面，在逆全球化 的大背景下，地缘变数的增多进一步带动了各国的资源战略调整，致使生产端实 际供需偏紧的局面可能将在更多商品中陆续显现；其三，价格数据层面，无论是海 外还是国内，通胀数据呈现同步上行，产业链中的涨价环节也有所扩散；其四，资 金轮动视角下，尽管 AI 产业的长期趋势无虞，但融资扩张与资本回报的矛盾越久， 资金定价的分歧也将更易放大。每一次科技条线的颠簸，都难免引发资金分流，而 在非 AI 需求尚未确认转强之前，兼顾供给约束基础和需求改善预期的"涨价"条 线显然比其他方向更具吸引力，也更容易在资金轮动中受益。 大势层面，中期趋势向好，市场有望震荡再向上。中期维度，分子与分母共振向好 的期待没有改变。盈利层面，供需双向发力的政策路径明确，价格端修复的趋势延 续，上游向 ...

Group 1: March Market Insights - The report emphasizes a shift towards "price increase" strategies driven by multiple factors, including the narrative of the AI technology revolution spilling over into physical assets, tightening supply-demand dynamics due to geopolitical changes, and rising inflation data both domestically and internationally [1][6][8] - The mid-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a market rebound supported by dual forces of supply and demand, alongside continued macro liquidity easing [2][8] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that exhibit both supply constraints and demand improvement, such as chemicals, refining, steel, and non-ferrous metals, as well as areas driven by sustained AI demand like storage and PCB [2][8] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188.SH) is highlighted for its performance elasticity, with significant increases in coal production and sales expected to enhance profitability [3][9] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) is noted for its strategic shift towards a technology-driven model and overseas resource expansion, which is anticipated to unlock new profit ceilings [3][13] - Dongyangguang (600673.SH) is recognized for its integration of AIDC and advancements in liquid cooling solutions, positioning it as a leader in AI infrastructure [3][17][20] - Whirlpool (600983.SH) is expected to benefit from the support of major shareholders and a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][21] - Ugreen Technology (301606.SZ) is projected to see significant growth driven by its NAS products and expansion in overseas markets [3][23] - Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in the restaurant sector and a focus on high-margin products [3][26] - Fuling Power (600452.SH) is positioned for growth through its dual business model and collaboration with State Grid, enhancing its operational efficiency [3][28]

Summary of Nanshan Aluminum Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Nanshan Aluminum Industry - **Industry**: Aluminum Production - **Founded**: Established in 1993, originally as Longkou Xinhua Plush Factory in July 1989 [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - The electrolytic aluminum industry is experiencing increasing prosperity, with domestic production capacity facing limitations, leading to overseas expansion opportunities [1][3] - Nanshan Aluminum has established a significant presence in Indonesia with a 4 million ton alumina production line, ensuring raw material supply [1][3][15] - Future plans include a 1 million ton electrolytic aluminum capacity in Indonesia, enhancing profitability in a high-margin environment [1][19] Financial Performance - Revenue growth from CNY 222.3 billion in 2020 to CNY 335 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5] - Net profit increased from CNY 2.05 billion to CNY 4.83 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 23.9% [5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached CNY 26.3 billion, up 9% year-on-year, and net profit was CNY 3.77 billion, up 8% year-on-year [6] Product Segmentation - Core business segments include cold-rolled products and alumina, with cold-rolled products accounting for over 50% of revenue [6][7] - High-end product sales increased from 12.66% in 2021 to 14% in the first half of 2025, with corresponding gross margins improving from 19.89% to 23% [7] Cost Structure and Profitability - The company maintains a competitive cost structure, with alumina production costs in Indonesia significantly lower than domestic prices [9][16] - Gross margin for alumina reached 48.7% in the first half of 2025, reflecting strong operational efficiency [8][15] Shareholder Returns - Nanshan Aluminum has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a cumulative cash dividend of CNY 16 billion and an average payout ratio of 45% since listing [11][12] - A special dividend of CNY 2.584 per share was announced for 2025, totaling CNY 3 billion [12] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the aluminum industry, benefiting from both domestic and international resource advantages [32] - The global demand for aluminum, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, is expected to grow, with significant opportunities in lightweight materials [22][24] - The electrolytic aluminum market is projected to face supply constraints due to limited new capacity and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and energy storage [25][31] Investment Recommendation - Given the company's strong growth prospects, competitive positioning, and commitment to shareholder returns, a "Buy" rating is recommended [32] Additional Important Information - The company has engaged in multiple share buybacks, totaling CNY 1.7 billion to CNY 3.4 billion, indicating strong confidence in its market value [13] - Nanshan Aluminum's international expansion includes plans for additional electrolytic aluminum capacity in Indonesia, with a focus on sustainable energy initiatives [20][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Nanshan Aluminum's strategic positioning, financial performance, and market outlook, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is transitioning from a traditional resource-driven model to a technology innovation and full industry chain collaborative model, enhancing its profitability and market position [1][14]. - The company has made significant investments in overseas resources, particularly in Indonesia, to secure raw material supply and reduce costs, which is expected to open up new profit ceilings [1][18]. - The automotive and aerospace sectors are identified as key growth areas, with the company holding over 25% market share in automotive aluminum and successfully developing various alloy products for commercial aircraft [2][30]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1993 and listed in 1999, the company has evolved into a leading player in the aluminum processing industry, focusing on high-end manufacturing and technological innovation [1][15]. - The company has established a complete aluminum industry chain, including power generation, alumina production, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing, which significantly reduces logistics costs and enhances risk resistance [16][22]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for lightweight materials in the automotive sector, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% in global automotive aluminum consumption from 2020 to 2029 [2]. - In the aerospace sector, the company has developed multiple alloy models for commercial aircraft, breaking the long-standing reliance on foreign suppliers [2][30]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 28.84 billion yuan in 2023 to 54.8 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 3.47 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.52 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.9% [5][40]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.30 yuan in 2023 to 0.65 yuan in 2027 [5]. Industry Dynamics - The global aluminum supply-demand balance is anticipated to tighten by 2026, with potential shortages in electrolytic aluminum due to increased demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and renewable energy [3][4]. - The company is strategically positioned to leverage its dual domestic and international operations to mitigate risks and enhance profitability [1][22].

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 05 年 月 日 南山铝业（600219.SH） 全产业链布局行稳致远，海外资源打开盈利天花板 公司从传统的" 资源驱动型"向" 技术创新与全产业链协同驱动型"的华 丽转身。1993 年公司正式设立，于 1999 年 12 月在上海证券交易所成功 上市。公司先后投入巨资建设热电厂、氧化铝厂、电解铝厂及精深加工车 间。另外，公司积极响应国家" 双碳"目标，加快海外资源布局，投资建 设印尼宾坦铝业工业园，利用印尼丰富的铝土矿资源和能源优势，建设百 万吨级氧化铝生产基地及百万吨级电解铝，实现了原材料的海外保供和成 本进一步下移。同时，公司持续优化产品结构，聚焦 汽车板、航空板、 罐料"等核心高毛利产品，并积极推进机器人领域拓展，成为全球铝加工 行业的头部企业。另外，南山铝业国际分拆港股上市，提升国际影响力。 出海先行者：复刻产业链优势，重塑成本护城河。南山铝业印尼项目位于 印度尼西亚宾坦岛东南部廖内群岛卡朗巴唐经济特区。印尼宾坦工业园项 目占地面积约 4578.6 公顷，已建设年产 400 万吨氧化铝厂、规划年产 100 万吨电解铝厂、配套年 ...

Summary of Ming Tai Aluminum Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ming Tai Aluminum Industry - **Focus**: High-end intelligent manufacturing and low-carbon circular economy - **Key Clients**: CATL, Xpeng Motors, Tesla Core Points and Arguments - **Strategic Investments**: Plans to invest in air cushion furnaces and arch bottom furnaces to enhance production capacity for high-end products like automotive and aerospace plates [2][4] - **Product Development**: Actively developing high-value-added products such as automotive inner and outer plates, water-cooled plates, liquid-cooled plates, and aluminum columns for industrial robots [2][6] - **Solid-State Battery Collaboration**: Partnering with Zijiang Enterprises and Penghui Energy to provide aluminum-plastic films for soft-pack solid-state batteries, with processing fees around 10,000 RMB/ton and net profit of approximately 2,500 RMB/ton [2][7] - **Production Capacity**: Current annual sales are about 1.6 million tons, with plans to increase capacity to 2.3 million tons over the next five years [11] Financial Performance - **2025 Profit Forecast**: Expected net profit of 1.95 to 2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 13%, driven by steady sales growth and product structure adjustments [3] - **Profit Margins**: Tax-exempt profit per ton reached around 1,500 RMB in Q3 2026, attributed to improved product structure and cost control measures [12] - **Cash Flow Dynamics**: Significant increase in operating cash flow due to cash strategies, although net profit slightly decreased [14] Future Strategies - **2026 Focus**: Emphasis on high-end manufacturing and low-carbon economy, with plans to launch a second air cushion furnace and a fourth 1+4 hot rolling production line [4][5] - **Dividend Policy**: Plans to increase dividends to over 30% starting in 2026, based on accumulated funds and reduced future capital expenditures [19] Market Outlook - **Demand Projections**: Optimistic outlook for the next two to three years, with expectations of steady growth in high-end markets such as automotive and aerospace [15] - **Processing Fee Adjustments**: Anticipated stability in processing fees, with no downward pressure expected [16] Additional Insights - **Recycling Business**: The profit from recycled aluminum is linked to its processing into finished products rather than simple alloy ingots, with a focus on matching recycling scale with overall capacity [22] - **Impact of Copper Prices**: Rising copper prices are influencing the industry, with potential shifts in material usage in sectors like air conditioning [17] - **Tariff Implications**: The ongoing US-China tariff disputes have minimal impact on the aluminum sector, as the industry has adapted to previous anti-dumping duties [18]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Nanshan Aluminum [3][9]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is positioned as a rare growth target in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with significant confidence demonstrated through dividends and share buybacks [2][8]. - The company is expanding its alumina production capacity in Indonesia, which is expected to contribute positively to its performance [8][9]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its ceiling, while global supply growth is slowing, suggesting potential upward pressure on aluminum prices in 2026 [9][11]. Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum focuses on high-end aluminum material manufacturing and operates a fully integrated aluminum processing industry chain, covering energy, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum profiles, and aluminum sheets [19]. - As of the end of 2025, the company has an alumina production capacity of 5.4 million tons, with 1.4 million tons in China and 4 million tons in Indonesia [19]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity is 680,000 tons domestically, with plans for an additional 250,000 tons in Indonesia [19]. Financial Analysis - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 28.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 17.5%, while net profit is expected to be 3.47 billion yuan, down 1.2% [7]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow to 33.48 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 4.83 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery [7]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio of 17.56% as of Q3 2025, indicating strong financial health [33]. Industry Overview - The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is approaching a limit of 45.53 million tons, with a current operational capacity of 44.43 million tons [37]. - The supply side is constrained by strict regulations and the need for capacity replacement, while overseas production is expected to face delays due to power supply issues [38][42]. - Demand for aluminum is being driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and electronics, which are compensating for weaker construction demand [51][54]. Key Highlights - The company is actively expanding its alumina production in Indonesia, which is expected to enhance its cost advantages and contribute to revenue growth [8][9]. - Nanshan Aluminum is committed to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% of distributable profits from 2024 to 2026 [8][35]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will reach 5 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.2x [9].

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum has been recognized for its outstanding operational performance and governance, winning two prestigious awards at the "2025 Capital Market Honor Ceremony," highlighting its leading position in the aluminum industry amid high-quality development trends [1] Industry Overview - China's aluminum industry has entered a phase of "stable total volume and optimized structure," playing a crucial role in the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new-generation information technology [3] Company Development Strategy - The core development lines for Nanshan Aluminum are "innovation-driven" and "global layout," focusing on high-end aluminum processing technology and a globalized industrial chain to enhance its competitive edge [4] - The company has established a complete aluminum deep processing industrial chain domestically and has expanded its operations internationally, including a new aluminum deep processing chain in Indonesia since 2015 [4] Market Position and Product Development - Nanshan Aluminum is targeting high-end demands in the transportation sector, particularly in high-value products like aerospace and high-end automotive aluminum plates, leveraging its technological and production advantages [6] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the aerospace materials sector, being the only domestic supplier of aluminum extrusion materials to major aviation companies like COMAC, Airbus, and Boeing [6] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Nanshan Aluminum reported total revenue of 26.325 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.772 billion yuan, reflecting the effectiveness of its high-end and international strategies [8] Emerging Opportunities - The company is exploring opportunities in the rapidly growing robotics market, which is projected to reach a market size of over $150 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% [9] - Nanshan Aluminum is actively developing materials for humanoid robots, capitalizing on its experience in aluminum alloys to meet the lightweight and high-performance demands of this emerging sector [9][10] Future Outlook - The robotics industry is seen as a new growth node for Nanshan Aluminum, with plans to strengthen its position through collaborations and customized solutions for core materials [10][12] - The company aims to leverage its existing customer base in the electric vehicle sector to explore synergies in the robotics business, creating a comprehensive supply system for global robotics companies [12]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province has announced the list of leading enterprises in the new materials sector for 2025, with Nanshan Aluminum and Nanshan Zhishang being recognized for their technological advancements and industry leadership in new materials [1][12]. Group 1: Company Achievements - Nanshan Aluminum has been included in the Shandong Province's new materials leading enterprise cultivation list and has retained its position in the "Top 50 Leading New Materials Enterprises" [1]. - The company focuses on high-quality aluminum alloy new materials, including automotive sheets, aerospace plates, and battery foil, and is a key supplier for major manufacturers like COMAC, Airbus, and Boeing [2]. - Nanshan Zhishang has made significant strides in new materials, particularly in ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene fibers and nylon fibers, achieving large-scale production and international performance standards [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The new materials industry is recognized globally as a crucial and rapidly developing high-tech sector, essential for gaining competitive advantages and is a key focus area for Shandong Province [1]. - The cultivation list aims to support enterprises in increasing R&D investment, promoting technological innovation, and expanding industrial scale, thereby enhancing the core competitiveness of Shandong's new materials industry [12]. Group 3: Future Directions - Both Nanshan Aluminum and Nanshan Zhishang plan to leverage provincial resources to deepen collaborative innovation in production, education, and research, aiming to solidify their technological leadership and contribute to the development of a strong manufacturing province [11].

Core Insights - Nanshan Aluminum achieved a revenue of 26.325 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.66% [1] - The company's total profit reached 5.348 billion yuan, up 20.58% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was 3.751 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.02% increase [1] Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum has established a complete aluminum processing industry chain, including thermal power, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting, aluminum profiles, hot-rolled and cold-rolled products, foil rolling, and aluminum recycling [1] - The company's main products include upstream products like electricity, alumina, and aluminum alloy ingots, as well as downstream products such as aluminum plates and strips, aluminum profiles, and aluminum foil, which are widely used in various sectors [1] Strategic Focus - Under the national "New Infrastructure" and "Aviation Power" strategies, Nanshan Aluminum is focusing on automotive and aerospace plate products to build a high ground for independent innovation [1] - The company is developing a collaborative ecosystem in the transportation sector, integrating technology research and development, product certification, and capacity expansion [1] Market Position - Nanshan Aluminum is recognized as the only domestic company supplying aluminum alloy materials to major global manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, and is a key supplier for the domestic C919 aircraft project [2] - The company has broken the monopoly of foreign giants in the aviation materials sector and has a complete process technology from mineral smelting to material processing [2] Profit Distribution - In the third quarter of 2025, Nanshan Aluminum proposed a cash dividend of 2.584 yuan per 10 shares, totaling over 3 billion yuan, reflecting the company's stable operating performance and healthy cash flow [3] - The company has also repurchased approximately 80.97 million shares, accounting for about 0.70% of its total share capital, further demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]