这是孙正义首次就11月份软银意外披露的清仓英伟达之举置评，他同时驳斥了关于人工智能投资泡沫的 说法。 孙正义表示，"我一股也不想卖的，只是更需要资金来投资OpenAI和其他项目，我是哭着卖出英伟达股 票的。" 他周一在东京的一个论坛上表示，软银那么做只是因为需要募集资本来为数据中心建设等项目供资。 软银集团创始人孙正义表示，若公司拥有无限的资金来支持其在人工智能领域的下一轮投资，包括对 OpenAI的大额押注，那么他本不会卖出英伟达的股份。 孙正义还表示，谈论人工智能投资泡沫的人"不够聪明"。他指出，如果人工智能长期来看能创造全球 GDP的10%，那么即使累计投入数万亿美元，也完全值得。"泡沫在哪里？"他问道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has decreased from a recent high of $206.88 to $188.15, but its strong free cash flow suggests a potential per-share value of $230, indicating it may be undervalued by approximately 22% [1][4]. Free Cash Flow Analysis - Nvidia reported a free cash flow of $13.45 billion for the quarter ending July 27, 2025, with a revenue of $46.743 billion, resulting in a free cash flow ratio of about 28.8% for that quarter [3]. - Over the past three quarters, Nvidia's free cash flow ratios were 59.43%, 39.54%, and 47.93%, leading to a trailing twelve months (TTM) average of 43.9% [3]. - If Nvidia maintains a free cash flow ratio of 29% in the upcoming third quarter, the TTM average would adjust to 39.15% [3]. Revenue and Cash Flow Projections - Analysts project Nvidia's annual revenue to reach $287.24 billion by January 2027, estimating a future free cash flow of $112.02 billion based on a 39% free cash flow ratio [4]. - Using a conservative free cash flow yield of 2.0%, if Nvidia distributes its projected free cash flow as dividends, the market capitalization could increase to $5.6 trillion, representing a 22% growth from its current market cap of $4.58 trillion [5]. Stock Valuation Insights - The theoretical target price for Nvidia's stock, based on free cash flow yield, is estimated at $230 per share, reflecting a potential upside of 22.24% from the current price [5][6]. Options Strategy - Selling out-of-the-money put options has become attractive due to elevated premiums, allowing investors to set a lower entry point [8]. - For instance, a put option with a strike price of $170 offers a premium of $4.60, resulting in a breakeven point of $165.40, which is 12% lower than the recent closing price [8]. - For more risk-averse investors, selling a $175 put option with a premium of $6.05 yields a breakeven point of $168.95, providing a favorable risk-reward scenario [9].

Group 1 - Liu Qiangdong humorously responded to a photo of him and his wife, indicating a light-hearted approach to public scrutiny [1] - Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang completed his annual stock selling plan, having sold 25,000 shares, part of a larger plan to sell up to 6 million shares by year-end [1] - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman refuted claims of the company planning an IPO, stating that there are no specific timelines or decisions made by the board [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi maintained its position as the leading smart speaker brand in China with a market share of 48.8%, showing a 6 percentage point increase year-on-year [1] - The overall smart speaker market in China saw a decline in sales volume by 11.9% year-on-year, totaling 3.057 million units [1] Group 3 - Huawei's HarmonyOS 6 is set to introduce file transfer capabilities with Apple devices by December 2025, enhancing cross-platform functionality [2] - Xiaopeng Motors' CEO He Xiaopeng was selected as the final torchbearer for the 15th National Games, highlighting the role of tech entrepreneurs in public events [2] Group 4 - Elon Musk predicted that traditional smartphones and apps will disappear within the next 5-6 years, suggesting a shift towards AI-generated content consumption [2] Group 5 - Google announced that its new AI model, Gemini 3, will be released in 2025, aiming to enhance performance and capabilities compared to its predecessor [3] Group 6 - Geoffrey Hinton warned that tech giants must resort to layoffs to profit from AI investments, indicating a potential shift in labor dynamics due to AI advancements [4] Group 7 - OpenAI lifted the invitation-only restriction for its AI video generation tool Sora 2, making it available for users in the US, Canada, Japan, and South Korea [5] Group 8 - Several new automotive companies reported monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units, driven by a strong market during the "golden September and silver October" period [6] - The expected impact of the 2025 vehicle replacement policy is anticipated to boost overall automotive sales, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [6] Group 9 - The production of industrial robots in China reached 76,300 units in September, marking a 28.3% year-on-year increase, with total production for the year surpassing last year's figures [8] Group 10 - An international research team developed a superconducting germanium material, paving the way for advancements in quantum devices based on existing semiconductor technologies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Investment expert Duan Yongping raises an interesting question about which asset class will be the most or least valuable in five years, using seven asset types currently valued at 5 million each as a basis for discussion [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Analysis - Moutai stock is considered a stable investment, likely to appreciate over the next five years due to its status as a benchmark in the A-share market [1][3]. - Bitcoin is seen as highly volatile, with potential for significant price increases, but concerns exist regarding the emergence of new cryptocurrencies [2][9]. - Gold is expected to rise in value due to monetary easing policies in both China and the U.S., making it a favorable hedge against inflation [2][12]. - Nvidia stock is viewed with skepticism, as the rise of Chinese semiconductor companies could pose a threat to its market position [2][18]. - Berkshire Hathaway stock faces uncertainty due to the potential retirement of Warren Buffett, which could impact its future performance [2][19]. - Real estate in core areas of Beijing or Shanghai is anticipated to stabilize, with rental yields around 2.5%, but long-term price appreciation remains uncertain [2][14]. - Luxury goods, specifically classic LV bags, are predicted to depreciate significantly due to lack of cash flow and changing consumer preferences [2][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified investment strategy is suggested, allocating 50% to gold, 15% to Berkshire Hathaway, 15% to Bitcoin, 10% to Nvidia, and 10% to Moutai, emphasizing a balanced approach rather than a single asset bet [5][6]. - The importance of understanding the underlying value of assets is highlighted, with a preference for investments that generate cash flow, such as stocks, over those reliant on market consensus [9][10]. - The potential for significant negative returns in luxury goods and cryptocurrencies is acknowledged, with a focus on more stable investments like Moutai and Berkshire Hathaway [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential value of seven asset classes in five years, encouraging readers to predict which will appreciate or depreciate in value, with a focus on personal insights and market trends [1][2][3]. Asset Class Summaries Moutai Stock - Moutai is considered a benchmark in the A-share market, with expectations of price appreciation over the next five years due to its stable business model and dividend potential [4][16][19]. Bitcoin - Bitcoin is viewed as a volatile asset with potential for significant price increases, but its value is heavily reliant on market consensus and the emergence of new cryptocurrencies [4][8][18]. Gold - Gold is anticipated to rise in value due to monetary easing in major economies, although its historical price fluctuations raise concerns about long-term stability [4][8][18]. Nvidia Stock - Nvidia is seen as a strong investment due to its leading position in the AI sector, but there are concerns about its high valuation and the sustainability of its market dominance [4][8][18]. Berkshire Hathaway Stock - Berkshire Hathaway is viewed as a stable investment, but there are uncertainties regarding its future performance following the potential retirement of Warren Buffett [4][8][18]. Real Estate - Real estate in core areas of Beijing and Shanghai is expected to stabilize, but concerns about rental yields and market dynamics suggest limited upside potential [4][8][19]. Luxury Goods (LV Bags) - Luxury items like LV bags are considered to have little investment value due to their lack of cash flow generation and susceptibility to changing consumer trends [4][8][19].

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang reported a series of insider stock trades to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission [1] - Nvidia's stock price has increased by 13% over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, surpassing the total market capitalization of several countries [1][2] Group 1: Market Context - The current economic environment is characterized as a global downturn, making it crucial to focus on risk aversion rather than chasing bubble assets [2] - Nvidia's stock is viewed as a bubble asset rather than a quality safe-haven asset, which raises concerns about its valuation [1][2] Group 2: Pricing Logic - The concept of pricing logic is emphasized, highlighting that many investors fail to understand the underlying monetary value behind asset prices [2][3] - The transition to a fiat currency system since the 1970s has led to the devaluation of the dollar, impacting the perceived value of assets like Nvidia [3][4] Group 3: Inflation and Asset Valuation - Inflation is identified as a result of the declining real value of currency, which can lead to rising prices of assets without a corresponding increase in their actual value [4][5] - The dollar has depreciated significantly against gold, with a 94.6% decline since the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, indicating that Nvidia's market cap may not reflect its true value [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of the U.S. debt and the potential for further dollar devaluation could lead to inflated asset prices, including Nvidia's stock, which may not be sustainable [6][7] - A multi-currency system is emerging, which could challenge the dollar's dominance and lead to a revaluation of dollar-denominated assets [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on defensive assets that provide stable cash flow and interest income, rather than chasing high-flying stocks like Nvidia [7] - Long-term investment strategies should prioritize low P/E ratios and undervalued companies with strong cash flow, while maintaining risk management practices [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, surpassing the total market capitalization of several countries [1][2] - The article argues that Nvidia's stock is a bubble asset rather than a quality safe-haven asset, especially in the current global economic downturn [2][4] Group 1: Market Context - The current economic environment is characterized as a downturn, where the focus should be on risk aversion rather than chasing bubble assets [2][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the pricing logic behind assets, which many investors overlook [2][3] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - Since the 1970s, the U.S. dollar has entered an era of fiat currency, leading to unlimited money printing and a decrease in the real value of money [3][4] - The article highlights that inflation is a result of the declining real value of currency, which affects the perceived value of dollar-denominated assets [4][5] Group 3: Valuation of Nvidia - Using a gold standard for valuation, the dollar has depreciated by 94.6% since 1971, indicating that Nvidia's $4 trillion market cap may not reflect its true value [5][6] - The article suggests that the current valuation of Nvidia is inflated due to the ongoing devaluation of the dollar and the expansion of the money supply [6][7] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious and consider defensive assets that provide stable cash flow and interest income, rather than chasing high-flying stocks [7] - The article encourages a long-term investment approach focusing on low P/E ratio companies with potential, rather than speculative investments in trending sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, surpassing the total market capitalization of several countries [1][2] Group 1: Market Context - The current economic environment is characterized as a global downturn, making it crucial to focus on risk management rather than chasing bubble assets [2][6] - Nvidia's stock is viewed as a bubble asset rather than a quality safe-haven asset, which is a critical distinction in the current market [1][2] Group 2: Pricing Logic - The concept of pricing logic is emphasized, where many investors fail to understand the underlying monetary value behind asset prices [2][3] - The U.S. dollar has entered an era of unanchored currency since the 1970s, leading to a continuous devaluation of money, which affects the perceived value of assets like Nvidia [3][4] Group 3: Inflation and Asset Valuation - Inflation is linked to the decreasing real value of currency, which means that even if asset prices rise, their actual value may not have increased significantly [4][5] - Using gold as a benchmark, the dollar has depreciated by approximately 94.6% since the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, indicating a significant loss in purchasing power [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of U.S. debt and the potential for further dollar devaluation could lead to inflated asset prices, including Nvidia's market cap, which may not reflect true value [6][7] - The ongoing transition in the global monetary system poses risks to dollar-denominated assets, suggesting that a shift away from dollar dominance could lead to a significant correction in asset values [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, surpassing the total market capitalization of several countries [1][2] - The article argues that Nvidia's stock is a bubble asset rather than a safe-haven asset, especially in the current economic downturn [2][4] Group 1: Market Context - The current global economic environment is in a downturn, making it crucial to identify safe-haven assets rather than pursuing bubble assets [2][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the pricing logic behind assets, which is often overlooked by investors [2][3] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - Since the 1970s, the U.S. dollar has entered an era of fiat currency, leading to unlimited money printing and a decrease in the real value of money [3][4] - The article highlights that inflation is a result of the declining real value of currency, which affects the perceived value of assets [4][5] Group 3: Asset Valuation - Using a gold standard for asset pricing, the dollar has depreciated by 94.6% since 1971, indicating that the real value of assets like Nvidia's stock may be inflated [5][6] - The article suggests that even when using oil prices as a benchmark, the dollar has depreciated by approximately 31.5% since 1971 [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of U.S. debt and the potential for further dollar depreciation could lead to inflated asset prices, including Nvidia's market cap [6][7] - The article warns that if the dollar loses its status as the dominant global currency, it could lead to a significant devaluation of dollar-denominated assets [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on defensive assets that provide stable cash flow and interest income, rather than chasing high-flying stocks [7] - The article encourages a long-term investment approach, emphasizing the selection of low P/E ratio companies with strong fundamentals [7]