热点板块：展望 7 月 A 股，可能仍是事件驱动的主题性行情，但板块间将出现高低切换。6 月末创 新药和银行等热门板块出现震荡回调，但 TMT、先进制造等板块开始超跌反弹，虽然 7 月预计仍是事 件驱动的主题性行情，但板块高低切换却是大概率事件。1）促进消费扩大内需是 2025 年的重点任务， 虽然大消费方向年报和一季报表现相对平淡，但市场对后续政策对冲仍有期待，这将是 2025 年大消费 方向的重要看点。关注乳制品、IP 消费、休闲旅游、医美等基本面景气度较高的板块。2）机器人国产 化和走进老百姓生活依然是 2025 年比较确定的趋势，机器人产品将从人形机器人向四足机器人、功能 型机器人扩展。以此带来的传感器、控制器、灵巧手等板块的阶段性机会将会反复出现。7 月特斯拉将 公布财报，且市场预期特斯拉人形机器人版本有可能更新，或将成为机器人板块新催化剂。3）半导体 国产化仍是大势所趋，关注其中的半导体设备、晶圆制造、半导体材料、IC 设计等。4）军工板块 2025 年存在订单回升的预期，大部分军工子板块如地面装备、航空装备、军工电子等一季报已经出现触底迹 象。5）创新药经历了近 4 年的调整后逐步迎来收获期，自 ...

宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨。沪深京三市成交额 15602 亿元，较上日放量 985 亿元。本轮股 指反弹的主要逻辑是对下半年的政策利好预期，上半年宏观经济表现韧性，但是内需有效需求不足的 问题仍存，下半年政策托底的预期仍较强。另外近期央行公开市场操作净投放流动性，市场流动性偏 宽松，有力地支撑了市场风险偏好回升。短期内外部风险因素缓和，英伟达 H20 芯片的销售解禁意味 着美国对中国的芯片禁令有所缓和，科技产业算力荒的问题有所缓解。不过此前表现较好的红利板块 和科技板块均已实现较大涨 ...

编者按：美国银行全球研究部门认为，下半年英伟达对中国H20 出货量可能恢复，这对中国数据中心、 公有云行业以及人工智能供应链上的主要半导体公司（如澜起科技）都将产生积极影响。 黄仁勋还宣布了一款新的合规性 RTX PRO GPU，该产品专为智能工厂和物流领域量身定制。 据英伟达消息，其首席执行官黄仁勋在北京访问期间向客户更新了情况，确认英伟达正在提交申请，以 恢复向中国出货 H20 GPU，预计美国政府将授予相关许可。 美国银行认为，这对中国数据中心、公有云行业以及人工智能供应链上的主要半导体公司（如澜起科 技）都将产生积极影响： 1）中国数据中心：客户入驻速度可能加快，新订单可能增多； 2）中国公有云：与人工智能相关的公有云服务可能实现更快增长； 3）澜起科技：PCIe Retimer 在国内的出货量增加，有望推动营收上升。 一、数据中心：近期客户入驻可能加快 | BofA Ticker | Bloomberg ticker | Company name | Price | Rating | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDS | SN SOD | GDS Holdi ...

Summary of IDC Industry Update and Company Recommendations Industry Overview - The IDC industry is shifting its core competitiveness from energy consumption metrics to scale effects and first-mover advantages in the AI era, with ultra-large IDC clusters, especially high-power clusters, becoming crucial. The power demand per cabinet has increased to over 100 kilowatts [1][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - Long-term trends in computing power investment remain unchanged, although short-term adjustments may occur due to chip procurement and deployment rhythms. The growth in TOKEN volume and model iteration value continues to support ongoing investments, altering industry logic [1][5]. - The IDC sector has previously faced demand concerns, chip bans, and regulatory guidance, but the outlook is improving. The demand for computing power for AI model training is rapidly increasing, with major overseas companies accelerating data center construction [1][2][9]. - The chip ban previously led to a significant inventory write-down for NVIDIA's H20 servers, affecting approximately 390,000 server sales, corresponding to 160-200 megawatts of IT capacity. NVIDIA plans to launch the RTX Pro GPU, and domestic GPUs will also be delivered, alleviating tender and listing issues [1][10][11]. - Regulatory guidance has extended the approval time for energy consumption metrics, limiting local capacity oversupply, which benefits leading companies. The first batch of energy consumption metrics is expected to be approved in the third quarter [1][12]. Company-Specific Insights - Runze Technology has resumed its IDC renovation and is expected to achieve an 80%-90% listing rate by year-end, with a projected quarter-on-quarter performance increase. The company anticipates selling 200 megawatts of projects and delivering 220 megawatts of new projects, with a successful public REITs issuance expected to yield over 2 billion in investment returns [3][13][14]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of over 5 billion and plans to utilize public REITs for light asset operations, aiming to acquire related companies in the IDC industry [15]. - Runze Technology's energy consumption metrics have increased by 130% by the end of 2024, with all projects having the necessary metrics, laying a solid foundation for long-term growth [16]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - Despite recent pressures, the IDC sector is showing signs of recovery, with demand for high-power cabinets increasing. Short-term adjustments may present investment opportunities, particularly in companies with high-quality existing resources and listing rates [7][8]. - Recommended companies for further attention include: - GDS Holdings - Century Internet - Huayun Data - David Technology - Aofei Data - Data Port These companies have received high recognition in the market for their public REITs offerings and have various development highlights [17]. Overall Industry Outlook - The IDC sector's previous stock price suppression factors are improving, leading to a more optimistic outlook for future development. Runze Technology is the primary recommendation, with continued attention on other listed companies [18].

再论 AIDC 下半年景气催化 20250715 摘要 英伟达 H20 芯片有望较快出口交付中国，同时推出 RTX Pro GPU，预 计将显著推动国内下半年 IDC 招标和 AIDC 电气设备产业链需求，成为 国内 AIDC 产业链加速拐点。 下半年 ARDC 电信设备领域关注英伟达 H20、B30 芯片及国产化芯片 进展，互联网大厂招标、K8S 指引及 AI 应用发布等催化因素，AI 底层 算力需求增长超预期。 全球主要互联网大厂 TOKEN 量显著增长，如微软一季度增长 5 倍，谷 歌 4 月增长 50 倍，国内豆包 5 月日均 TOKEN 量增长 4 倍，表明终端 算力需求爆发。 全球数据中心空置率下降，Meta 计划扩建美国 AI 算力数据中心并募资 290 亿美元，世纪互联计划十年内建设十个大规模算力中心集群，显示 强劲需求。 国内上半年 CAPEX 不及预期影响 IDC 定制设备产业链，但下半年 H20 解禁、B30 推进及国产芯片测试预计将推动 IDC 建设需求改善。 Q&A 今年下半年国内和海外 AIDC（人工智能数据中心）产业链的整体趋势如何？ 我们认为今年下半年国内和海外 AIDC 产业 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Retail Industry - E-commerce Sector - Home Appliances Industry - Catering Industry - Gold and Jewelry Market - Light Industry and Home Furnishing Sector - Automotive Industry - Textile and Cosmetics Industry Core Points and Arguments Retail Industry Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May, primarily due to the timing of e-commerce promotions which were moved to mid to late May, leading to a spike in May sales with a month-on-month growth of 11.5% compared to 8.4% in previous years [3][6] - Excluding seasonal factors, categories like home appliances and communication equipment maintained high growth rates, with home appliances growing at around 30% [3][6] Catering Sector Performance - June saw a significant decline in catering revenue, attributed to promotional activities reducing actual consumer spending rather than a decrease in demand [4][5] - The overall service retail sector showed improvement, with cumulative year-on-year growth rising from 5.2% to 5.3% [4] E-commerce and AI Development - Strong recommendation for the internet e-commerce sector, particularly with AI-driven advancements. NVIDIA's H20 card is expected to enhance computational power for AI applications in China [7] - Increased competition in instant retail is anticipated, with major platforms like Alibaba and Meituan being highlighted for investment [7] Gold and Jewelry Market Trends - Recent corrections in the gold and jewelry market are due to previously high expectations. However, the trend towards domestic gold jewelry remains strong, with brands that excel in craftsmanship and design expected to grow significantly [8] Light Industry and Home Furnishing Sector - The light industry and home furnishing sector benefited from the "old-for-new" policy, with June residential construction area declines narrowing and home furnishing retail sales showing strong growth [10] - The sector is viewed as having long-term investment value due to low valuations and structural opportunities in AI mattresses and design software [10] Home Appliances Industry Growth - The home appliances sector experienced a robust growth of 32.4% year-on-year in June, with total retail sales exceeding 140 billion yuan [11] - The "old-for-new" policy and the 618 promotion significantly boosted sales across various product categories, with air conditioners and kitchen appliances seeing substantial growth [11] New Consumer Categories in Home Appliances - New consumer categories, particularly cleaning appliances, are seeing increased market penetration. Companies like Ousheng Electric, Dechang, and Roborock are recommended for investment [12] Automotive Market Performance - The automotive market grew by 4.8% year-on-year in June, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.1 million units, a nearly 30% increase [16] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with a 30% increase in sales, while luxury vehicle sales declined by 7% [16][17] Textile and Cosmetics Industry Overview - The textile and apparel sector grew by 1.9% in June, while cosmetics saw a decline of 2.3%. Notable growth in sportswear and specific brands like Haier and An Ta was observed [18] - Companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei are highlighted for their strong growth potential in the cosmetics sector [18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The shift towards smaller, specialized retail formats is evident, with convenience stores and specialty shops outperforming larger formats, indicating a trend towards professionalization and miniaturization in consumer behavior [6] - The IP cultural tourism sector is also noted for its potential, especially with the upcoming peak travel season and active IP collaborations [9]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector, focusing on the impact of NVIDIA's H20 sales recovery and its implications for various related companies and technologies. Key Points and Arguments AIDC Sector Dynamics - NVIDIA's H20 sales recovery is expected to accelerate terminal equipment procurement and capital expenditure, positively impacting server power supply companies, particularly domestic manufacturers like 欧陆通 [3][5][6] - The new generation B30 cards offer higher energy efficiency and lower costs, which may further drive the demand for server power supplies [5][6] Engine Supply and Demand - The engine supply remains tight throughout the year, with foreign brand units experiencing price increases of 15%-20% in Q1, followed by a stock price correction in Q2 due to slowed data center construction [9] - Companies like 潍柴 and 玉柴 are projected to see significant growth in unit sales, with 潍柴 expecting 1,000 units and 玉柴 over 1,700 units, more than doubling year-on-year [9] UPS and Backup Power Market - The domestic data center market predominantly uses UPS combined with lead-acid backup power, accounting for 80%-85% of the market [10][11] - Companies like 科华数据 are recommended due to their strong sales growth and deep ties with major clients like Tencent [11][12] Liquid Cooling Technology - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for liquid cooling technology, with a significant increase in quick connectors and piping [8][20] - Major companies like 阿里 and 腾讯 are pushing for HVDC technology, while others are focusing on Panama technology [8] High-Speed Copper Cable Demand - NVIDIA and Huawei are expected to generate substantial demand for high-speed copper cables, estimated at $5-6 billion and 4 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - The domestic production rate varies significantly across the supply chain, with assembly and solution provision being the weakest links [28][29] AI Copper Foil Market - The demand for AI copper foil is increasing due to the growth in AI computing power, necessitating higher quality products [24][25] - Domestic companies like 德福 and 铜冠 are positioned to accelerate domestic substitution in high-end copper foil products [25] Fuse Market in Data Centers - The introduction of 800V HVDC architecture will make fuses a necessity, with the market size expected to exceed 1 billion RMB [23] - 中融电气 is highlighted as a key player likely to capture significant market share due to partnerships with major power supply manufacturers [23] Storage Business Trends - The storage business is expected to recover, with strong demand from both residential and commercial sectors [17] - The anticipated performance for the year is projected at 600-700 million RMB, with a valuation of approximately 20 times [17] Future of Lead-Acid Backup Power - The lead-acid backup power market is experiencing supply constraints, but conditions are expected to improve as production capacity is gradually released [18] Busbar Applications in Data Centers - Busbars are gaining traction due to their superior current-carrying capacity and heat dissipation, with applications in high-density power supply scenarios [30] - International giants like Eaton and Schneider dominate the market, but domestic players like 威腾电器 are also making strides [30] Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of technological advancements and partnerships in driving growth within the AIDC sector, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to changing market demands and technological innovations [8][20][30]

Group 1 - DeepSeek has not confirmed the release date for its R2 model due to dissatisfaction with its performance from Liang Wenfeng [1] - The R2 model was initially planned for release in May, aimed at enhancing programming capabilities and enabling multilingual reasoning [1] - Engineers have been optimizing the R2 model while awaiting approval from Liang Wenfeng for its release [1] Group 2 - The shortage of NVIDIA server chips in China, caused by U.S. export controls, will hinder the rapid deployment of the R2 model even if it is released [1] - The demand for DeepSeek R2 could overwhelm Chinese cloud service providers, as running AI models requires advanced NVIDIA chips [1] - DeepSeek has engaged with several Chinese cloud companies to provide technical specifications for hosting and distributing the R2 model [1] Group 3 - Most cloud customers currently using the R1 model operate it on NVIDIA H20 chips [2] - New U.S. export controls implemented in April have prohibited NVIDIA from selling H20 chips to the Chinese market, which was previously the only AI processor that could be legally exported [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with DDR4 memory prices rising rapidly since Q2, expected to increase by nearly 50% for 8GB DDR4 modules, and server and PC DDR4 module prices projected to rise by 18%-23% quarter-on-quarter [1][7][8]. - Global semiconductor sales grew by 22.7% year-on-year in April, marking the 18th consecutive month of growth, with the Americas showing the largest increase [1][9]. - The AI chip market in China is estimated to be around $50 billion, which is beneficial for companies like NVIDIA despite losses from the H20 ban [1][10]. Key Company Insights - **NVIDIA**: The H20 ban resulted in a $4.5 billion loss in Q2, but the overall revenue guidance remains optimistic at $45 billion, with a focus on the Chinese AI chip market [1][10][27]. - **Broadcom**: Reported that the INSILCO segment will continue to grow until 2026, with a new switch chip launched, indicating a positive short-term outlook [1][11][28]. - **Micron**: Gradually delivering HBM4 samples, with DRAM and NAND prices rising, particularly for DDR4 [1][14][15]. - **Hynix**: Anticipates a doubling of HBM revenue by 2025, with over 50% of Q2 sales coming from 12-layer HBM3 [1][14]. Market Trends - The domestic semiconductor industry showed overall revenue growth in Q1, with many companies still in a recovery phase in Q2. TSMC reported a 40% year-on-year revenue increase in May [2][4][40]. - The server market is seeing growth, with companies like Xinxin achieving positive revenue growth in May [5]. - The automotive sector is also experiencing growth, with domestic passenger car sales increasing year-on-year [5]. Supply Chain and Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to remain between $38-42 billion, while Micron's capital expenditure is expected to rise significantly from $8.1 billion in FY2024 to $14 billion in FY2025 [6][40]. - The supply chain for AI GPU chips and servers is being strengthened through mergers, such as Haiguang's reverse merger with Zhongke Shuguang [1][12][31]. Pricing Trends - The price of DDR4 memory is expected to continue rising due to limited supply as major manufacturers plan to cease production by early 2026 [1][7][26]. - The semiconductor market is seeing a divergence in pricing trends, with some segments like HBM showing significant growth while others remain stable [1][14][26]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on domestic semiconductor companies benefiting from the ban on foreign AI chips, as well as sectors like storage, SoC, and materials that are expected to grow [24][25]. Additional Insights - The EDA and IP sectors are significantly impacted by international policies, with companies needing to adapt to restrictions on exports to China [4][23][44]. - The MCU market is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Lexin launching new products [3][33]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor industry and specific companies within it.

近日，华为创始人任正非关于芯片问题的表态引发广泛关注，他指出通过叠加和集群等方法，芯片计算结果能 与最先进水平相当。英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋也对此作出回应。 任正非的核心观点 任正非在 6 月 10 日接受《人民日报》专访时提到： 芯片技术的务实策略 黄仁勋在 6 月 13 日至 14 日的多次采访中回应： 技术代差的承认与补充 认可英伟达芯片领先一代，但指出 AI 是"并行问题"，中国可通过增加计算节点（更多芯片+集群）弥补单芯片 性能差距，这与任正非的观点不谋而合。 对中国市场的担忧 警告若美国持续断供，华为将迅速填补中国市场空白并抢占全球份额，英伟达在华业务（占其营收第四大市 场）可能受冲击。 承认华为单芯片性能落后美国一代（如昇腾芯片制程为 7nm，英伟达达 3nm），但通过"数学补物理、非摩尔 补摩尔、群计算补单芯片"等方法（如叠加、集群计算），可在结果上达到与最先进水平相当的实用性能。 自主创新与韧性 强调中国有充足的能源和规模化芯片部署能力，无需过度依赖外部技术，并称"不去想困难，干就完了"，展现 华为在封锁下的技术突破决心。 市场前景 若美国退出中国市场，华为有能力覆盖本土需求并拓展全球。 黄仁 ...