对于政策面的影响，GTC泽汇资本表示，美联储对通胀回归目标的乐观预期可能过于理想化。当传统的 债券资产因实际负回报而失去避险光环时，黄金的属性已从"对冲工具"进化为"核心配置资产"。虽然美 联储试图通过资产负债表的微调来控制收益率，但这种修补式的政策难以重建市场对长期货币稳定性的 信心。 综上所述，5000美元的价格目标在2025年触手可及，且这可能只是黄金长周期牛市中的一个阶段性节 点。尽管上涨路径中不可避免地会出现由波动带来的健康修正，但作为资产组合中不可或缺的多元化核 心，黄金的战略价值正在被市场重新发现。GTC泽汇资本将持续关注全球宏观动向，为投资者捕捉金市 长坡厚雪的投资机遇。 责任编辑：陈平 12月31日，目前黄金价格在每盎司4300美元上方表现出极强的韧性，GTC泽汇资本表示，黄金正处于自 1979年以来表现最为强劲的年度周期中，全年约66%的涨幅预示着一个大周期的开启。尽管市场对于高 位回调存在疑虑，但GTC泽汇资本认为，当前的上涨并非单纯的投机反弹，而是全球金融底层逻辑发生 深刻转变的产物，2025年将成为这一转型的"爆发年"。 这种被称为"板块构造"式的市场位移正在彻底改变投资景观。虽然地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a structural bull market driven by "structural inflation" in technology assets, despite a backdrop of consumer deflation and overall economic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Inflation in Technology Assets - The bull market resembles the structural bull market of 2014-2015, primarily benefiting technology stocks, while consumer sectors have generally declined [2]. - Significant inflationary trends are observed in technology-related assets, including a 40% increase in AI training cluster rental prices and a 30% rise in average costs for AI servers [3]. - The ChiNext Index has surged by 54%, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [3]. Group 2: Policy and Investment Dynamics - The rise in technology stocks is largely driven by government policies focusing on "new productive forces," "self-control," and "AI+" initiatives, leading to concentrated financial resources in sectors like semiconductors and AI [4]. - Despite two years of monetary easing, CPI and PPI have continued to decline, while stock prices have risen, indicating a disparity in capital allocation favoring technology assets [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The inflation in technology assets is influenced by both supply-side and demand-side factors, with supply constraints due to U.S. restrictions on high-tech exports to China and a focus on self-sufficiency in technology [6][7]. - Investment in AI infrastructure is a key demand driver, with ongoing fiscal support expected to continue for the next five years [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current cycle of technology asset inflation is anticipated to persist for at least the next two years, driven by ongoing advancements in AI capabilities and infrastructure investments [5][7]. - The AI infrastructure sector is highlighted as a preferred investment area due to its dual support from supply and demand dynamics [8]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - For investors, ETFs focused on AI computing, such as those tracking the 5G communication theme index, present clear opportunities, with major holdings in companies benefiting from AI infrastructure investments [8][9]. - The underlying index is characterized by a high concentration in "hard technology," with significant allocations to communication and electronic sectors, indicating a robust investment landscape [9].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has been the hottest segment this year, with stock prices rising over 70% as of October 14, 2025, ranking first among all industries. The core drivers include supply contraction and macroeconomic factors, with a focus on the dialogue between strategy and industry teams to address various questions regarding the sector [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply constraints are a fundamental logic behind the market's performance, with significant underinvestment in global resource capital over the past decade, particularly in key metals like copper and rare earths. This has led to a decrease in supply elasticity [24]. - The latest round of inventory replenishment may exceed market expectations due to a shift in the U.S. economic structure, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery while the service sector weakens. This could lead to a more robust inventory cycle compared to previous years [3][14]. - The global manufacturing cycle is expected to gradually recover, which will increase resource consumption per unit of GDP, potentially leading to a significant rise in metal demand [16][19]. Group 2: Financial and Market Trends - The financial environment, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to support metal prices, with gold and other precious metals benefiting from increased liquidity and risk aversion [26]. - The current market dynamics suggest a transition to a rebalancing phase, with a focus on the recovery of corporate earnings and the export price index in China as key indicators for A-share companies [5]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is characterized by a combination of supply constraints, inventory replenishment, and financial attributes, indicating a systemic recovery rather than purely demand-driven growth [26]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The copper market is particularly sensitive to inventory replenishment logic, with price support stemming from U.S. market dynamics influenced by tariffs and supply disruptions [25]. - The demand for metals, especially copper, is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of AI infrastructure, which will drive increased consumption in data centers and power systems [42][45]. - The valuation differences between overseas and Chinese non-ferrous metal stocks can be attributed to varying valuation methods and accounting practices, with Chinese companies showing higher cash profit quality but lower apparent valuations [30][32][35].

Group 1 - The UK long-term borrowing costs have risen to the highest level since 1998, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching 5.68% [1][3] - The depreciation of the British pound against the US dollar by 70 basis points and a 0.3% increase in the euro against the pound indicate market volatility [3] - Concerns over high inflation, significant government borrowing, and slow economic growth in the UK are leading to higher risk premiums compared to other G7 countries [3][4] Group 2 - The UK manufacturing PMI for August was revised down to 47.0, marking a three-month low and indicating economic contraction [4] - Demand for long-term UK government bonds has weakened, particularly from traditional buyers like pension funds, contributing to rising yields [4] - Over the past 12 months, the UK 30-year bond yield has increased by more than 100 basis points, outpacing the increases in comparable US and German bonds [4]

Market Overview - Major European stock indices experienced declines, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.59% to 9142.01 points, the French CAC 40 down 0.42% to 7675.69 points, and the German DAX down 1.69% to 23630.09 points [1] - The global bond market saw widespread declines, particularly in long-term bonds, with the UK 30-year government bond yield surpassing 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, and the US 30-year bond yield reaching 4.97%, the highest since July [3] Currency Market - The British pound depreciated significantly against the US dollar, dropping over 1.5% to 1.334, with the dollar index rising by 0.49% to 98.15 [3] - The pound's exchange rate against the dollar was reported at 1.34065, reflecting a decline of 1.03% [4] Economic Concerns - The volatility in financial markets is attributed to concerns over the UK's inflation rate, high borrowing levels, and slow economic growth [3] - The UK financial market has been disrupted by fiscal challenges throughout the year, with a notable "triple whammy" in July when the bond market experienced significant fluctuations [5] Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The UK government's abrupt reversal on welfare cuts in July was a key factor in the market turmoil, leading to potential political resistance against future spending cuts or tax increases [6] - Analysts express concerns about a "vicious cycle" where rising debt worries lead to increased yields, further exacerbating the debt situation [6] - The UK Debt Management Office has reduced the sale of long-term securities to record lows, indicating weakened demand from traditional buyers [6] Government Response - UK Prime Minister Starmer announced cabinet reshuffles to improve government image and gain better control over economic policy [6] - Analysts warn that if the government fails to restore confidence in public finances, it may face a crisis similar to the "mini-budget" fallout experienced three years ago [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced an expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs to include hundreds of derivative products, with a 50% import duty set to take effect on August 18 [1][3] - The steel and aluminum tariffs have increased production costs for U.S. manufacturers, leading to concerns about rising prices for a wide range of products, including automobiles and consumer goods [1][4] - Major U.S. steel producers, such as Cleveland-Cliffs, have faced operational challenges, with some facilities shutting down due to weak demand and financial losses [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. manufacturing sector is experiencing structural inflation pressures due to rising production costs from tariffs, particularly affecting industries reliant on imported materials [4][5] - The automotive industry is projected to raise vehicle prices by 5%-7% in 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, while pharmaceutical prices are also expected to rise significantly [5][6] - Barclays Bank predicts that the cumulative effect of tariffs could lead to a 0.8% increase in overall price levels in the U.S., with most of the price increases yet to be fully realized [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced an expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs to include hundreds of derivative products, with a 50% import duty set to take effect on August 18 [1][3] - The tariffs are expected to increase production costs for U.S. manufacturers, leading to potential price hikes across various products, including automobiles and consumer goods [1][4] - The steel industry is facing significant challenges, with some companies, like Cleveland-Cliffs, halting production due to weak demand and financial losses [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. government aims to encourage domestic manufacturing by initially setting lower tariffs on chips and steel, which will later be increased significantly [2] - Structural supply shortages in the U.S. steel market, particularly for semi-finished products, are exacerbating the impact of tariffs, with a reported 5 million tons supply gap that must be filled through imports [3][4] - The imposition of high tariffs on raw materials is leading to a structural inflationary wave, affecting various sectors, including automotive and electronics, with significant cost increases projected [4][5] Group 3 - The cumulative effect of tariffs is expected to raise overall price levels in the U.S. by 0.8%, with most of the price increases yet to be fully realized [6] - The ongoing adjustments in tariffs are creating uncertainty in trade relationships, prompting suppliers to be more cautious, which could lead to potential import shortages and further inflationary pressures [5][6]

Group 1 - The chairman of E. Leclerc, Michel-Edouard Leclerc, expressed concerns that Trump's protectionist policies will disrupt global trade for a long time and lead to "structural inflation" affecting the French economy [1][2] - Leclerc emphasized that the current U.S. tariff policy is just the beginning of significant negotiations and rebuilding international trade rules will take about 10 years [1] - He called for unity among EU governments and business leaders in response to Trump's tariffs, suggesting that European standards could be effective through retaliatory measures and negotiations [1] Group 2 - Leclerc warned that Trump's trade policies could lead to inflation in the U.S., predicting that the inflation rate could reach 4% or 5% by the end of the year [2] - He noted that the closure of the U.S. market to certain French industries could indirectly impact French residents, particularly in the dairy sector, where producers may face significant challenges [2] - Leclerc mentioned that Trump's actions could negatively affect U.S.-EU relations, expressing disappointment over the impact on the soft power that the U.S. holds [3]