财务表现 近52周股价走势 | 华通证券国际 | | --- | | 研究部 | | 宏观组 | | SFC: AAK004 | | Email· research@waton.com | 海天味业（03288.HK) 海天味业：利润增长快于收入，成本控制与国际化推进 | 投资评级： | 持有 | 主要观点： | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-11-25 |  财务表现 | | | |  业务发展 | 盈利预测 预计2025年营业收入增长8.0%，营业利润增长7.81%。2025-2027 年PE对应为24.66、22.36、21.45倍。 风险提示 作者 | 百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 26,901 | 29,053 | 31,087 | 32,952 | | （+/-)% | 10.41 | 8.00 | 7.00 | 6.00 | | 营业利润 | 6,562 | 7,075 | 7,554 | 8,006 | | （+/-)% ...

Core Insights - Haitan Flavor Industry experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on November 20, with a trading volume of 316 million yuan [1] - The company reported a net financing purchase of 5.43 million yuan on the same day, indicating strong investor interest despite the minor price drop [1] Financing Overview - On November 20, Haitan Flavor Industry had a financing buy-in amount of 32.21 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 1.10 billion yuan, representing 0.52% of its market capitalization [1] - The financing balance is above the 70th percentile of the past year, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [1] Short Selling Activity - On the same day, the company saw a short selling repayment of 17,500 shares and a short selling amount of 2,400 shares, totaling approximately 90,600 yuan [1] - The remaining short selling volume was 240,900 shares, with a short selling balance of 9.09 million yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile of the past year, suggesting high short interest [1] Company Profile - Haitan Flavor Industry, established on April 8, 2000, and listed on February 11, 2014, is primarily engaged in the production and sale of condiments, including soy sauce, seasoning sauces, oyster sauce, chicken essence, and vinegar [2] - The revenue composition for the company includes soy sauce (52.05%), other products (16.45%), oyster sauce (16.43%), seasoning sauces (10.68%), and miscellaneous (4.39%) [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Haitan Flavor Industry achieved a revenue of 21.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.02% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.32 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.54% [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Haitan Flavor Industry has distributed a total of 32.71 billion yuan in dividends, with 13.20 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 211,200, up by 6.01% from the previous period [2] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth-largest shareholder, holding 149 million shares, a decrease of 46.83 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - Haitai Flavor Industry achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.322 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.54% [1] - The company’s Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.408 billion yuan, up 3.26% year-on-year [1] Product Performance - Revenue growth by product category: soy sauce +7.9%, oyster sauce +5.9%, seasoning sauce +9.6%, and other condiments +13.4% [1] - New product categories are highlighted as a growth driver [1] Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region: Eastern region +12.1% and Southern region +12.7%, leading overall market expansion [1] Profitability - Q3 gross margin was 39.63%, an increase of 3.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining prices of key raw materials such as soybeans, white sugar, and packaging materials [1] - Continuous improvement in gross margin driven by cost reductions and growth in new businesses like vinegar and cooking wine [1] Valuation and Rating - The target price is adjusted to 46.04 yuan (previously 49.08 yuan), based on a 34.1X PE for 2026, referencing companies like Hengshun Vinegar, Jinlongyu, and Tianwei Food [1] - The rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities report indicates that Haitian Flavor Industry's Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the net profit for the first three quarters is 5.322 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.54% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue growth has slowed down, but profitability remains stable [1] - Revenue from soy sauce, oyster sauce, seasoning sauce, and other products increased by 5%, 2%, 3.5%, and 6.5% year-on-year respectively, with growth rates for each category slowing compared to Q2 2025 [1] Market Conditions - The slowdown in revenue growth is primarily attributed to weak restaurant performance in Q3 2025 and the company's proactive adjustments [1] - Cost advantages have boosted gross margins, indicating strong profitability [1] Future Outlook - The company is steadily advancing its product and channel strategies, suggesting that stable growth is expected [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 32, 29, and 26 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1: Global Technology Competition - The report outlines three potential scenarios for global technology competition over the next decade: baseline scenario (strategic equilibrium between China and the US), optimistic scenario (China becomes an innovation leader), and pessimistic scenario (China's industrial upgrade falls short) [6][7] - Key technologies are defined as frontier technologies (AI, semiconductors, quantum computing, biopharmaceuticals), advanced manufacturing, and critical infrastructure technologies (energy and advanced networks) [6][7] - The US focuses on invention and innovation, while China aims for large-scale innovation in key industries, with both countries undergoing reforms in their innovation systems [6][7] Group 2: Softcom Power (301236.SZ) - For the first three quarters of 2025, Softcom Power reported revenue of 25.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.30%, and a net profit of 0.99 billion yuan, up 30.21% [15][17] - The company is guided by four strategic directions: intelligence, autonomy, greening, and internationalization, with a focus on enhancing software and digital technology services [16][17] - Future revenue projections for Softcom Power are 35.9 billion yuan, 41.3 billion yuan, and 47.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 0.384 billion yuan, 0.526 billion yuan, and 0.855 billion yuan respectively [17] Group 3: Dingjie Smart (300378.SZ) - Dingjie Smart's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.614 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.051 billion yuan, up 2.4% [19][21] - The company is experiencing short-term pressure in mainland China but is seeing stable performance in non-mainland markets, driven by deepening applications and market expansion [19][20] - Revenue projections for Dingjie Smart are 2.502 billion yuan, 2.726 billion yuan, and 2.989 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 0.191 billion yuan, 0.233 billion yuan, and 0.301 billion yuan respectively [21] Group 4: Hai Tian Wei Ye (603288.SH) - Hai Tian Wei Ye reported a revenue increase of 6.02% to 21.628 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 5.322 billion yuan, up 10.54% [22][24] - The company experienced a slowdown in revenue growth in Q3, with a 2.48% increase to 6.398 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 3.40% to 1.408 billion yuan [23][24] - The company is focusing on creating new growth points and enhancing efficiency through digital production [24] Group 5: Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) - Guizhou Moutai's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 130.904 billion yuan, a 6.32% increase, with a net profit of 64.627 billion yuan, up 6.25% [26][28] - The company reported stable sales performance for its flagship Moutai liquor, while other series faced pressure [27][28] - Future earnings per share (EPS) projections for Guizhou Moutai are 72.87 yuan, 77.31 yuan, and 82.70 yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [28] Group 6: Xian Cai Co., Ltd. (600095.SH) - Xian Cai Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in net profit of 203.39% for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 0.442 billion yuan [46][47] - The company's revenue for Q3 was 0.655 billion yuan, a 43.77% increase year-on-year, driven by a surge in commission income [47][48] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.608 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 456.6% increase [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [3][8]. Core Views - The company's main business shows steady growth, with continuous improvement in profitability. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 216.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 53.22 billion yuan, up 10.54% year-on-year [5]. - The report highlights a slowdown in revenue growth in Q3 2025, attributed to a decline in demand in the northern region due to regulatory impacts on the restaurant sector. Q3 revenue from the seasoning business was 60.43 billion yuan, growing 4.53% year-on-year, but down from 10.45% in the first half of the year [5]. - The gross profit margin has been on the rise, with a year-on-year increase of 3.19 percentage points to 39.97% for the first three quarters of 2025. The report notes that the increase in sales and management expense ratios is primarily due to the initiation of employee stock ownership plan expenses [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 287.22 billion yuan, 311.15 billion yuan, and 334.98 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 8%, and 8% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 70.25 billion yuan, 77.79 billion yuan, and 85.15 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 11% for 2025 and 2026, and 9% for 2027 [5]. Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The EPS is projected to be 1.20 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.46 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 32.0, 28.9, and 26.4 [3][5]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has increased its distributor network by 19 to a total of 6,726 distributors, indicating a strengthening market presence [5]. - The report notes that the company faces potential risks from demand recovery being lower than expected and increased competition in the market [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.63 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.32 billion yuan, up 10.5% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue growth slowed down in Q3 2025, with a 2.5% increase compared to the same quarter last year, attributed to weakened dining demand [2]. - The gross margin improved to 40.0% for the first three quarters, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to declining core raw material prices [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2025, the revenue breakdown by product shows soy sauce at 11.16 billion yuan (+7.9%), oyster sauce at 3.63 billion yuan (+5.9%), and seasoning sauces at 2.23 billion yuan (+9.6%) [2]. - The company achieved a net profit margin of 24.6% for the first three quarters, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 28.57 billion yuan, 30.63 billion yuan, and 32.87 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 7.2%, and 7.3% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 7.04 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 11.0% year-on-year increase [5]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a forecast for earnings per share (EPS) of 1.20 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32x based on the current stock price [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The third-quarter financial results of Haitian Flavor Industry show a slowdown in growth compared to the first half of the year, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet high growth expectations for the year [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 6.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, and a net profit of 1.408 billion yuan, up 3.40% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 21.628 billion yuan, a 6.02% increase, while net profit was 5.322 billion yuan, up 10.54% [3]. - The growth rate of net profit outpaced revenue growth by nearly five percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency and cost control [3]. Product Category Analysis - Soy sauce remains the core product, generating 11.156 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.91% increase, accounting for about 50% of total revenue [3]. - The oyster sauce segment achieved revenue of 3.629 billion yuan, up 5.89%, while the seasoning sauce category saw a revenue increase of 9.57% to 2.229 billion yuan [3]. - Other categories, including cooking wine and vinegar, generated 3.591 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 13.44% [4]. Strategic Adjustments - The slowdown in growth is attributed to strategic adjustments in channel structure and management rather than a decline in market demand [4][5]. - The company has been focusing on channel penetration and digital upgrades, which have led to temporary adjustments in inventory strategies among traditional distributors [4]. Future Growth Targets - The company aims to reach a revenue target of 30 billion yuan, with a revised employee stock ownership plan indicating confidence in future performance [7][8]. - Despite challenges, the company has the potential to achieve this target through effective resource mobilization and leveraging high-value product categories [8]. Market Challenges - The overall recovery of the restaurant industry poses a significant challenge, as it directly impacts the demand for seasoning products [10][11]. - The restaurant sector's sluggish recovery could lead to reduced purchasing from restaurants, affecting the company's B2B sales [11][12]. - The long-term growth of the company is closely tied to the recovery of the restaurant market and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions [12].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, showing a significant decline over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite down by 32% and the ChiNext down by 16% [1][2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report discusses the strong performance of the power equipment and non-bank financial sectors, with power equipment showing a rise of 4.79% and non-bank financials increasing by 2.08% in the latest trading session [1] - Conversely, the banking sector experienced a decline of 1.98%, indicating a challenging environment for traditional financial institutions [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes a dual-driven strategy focusing on technology and PPI trading, suggesting that AI and self-controlled technology will lead the market, supported by stable dividends and sectors like gold and military [6] - The recommended industry sectors for November include social services, non-bank financials, and public utilities, indicating a diversified approach to investment [7] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - Celestica reported a strong Q3 performance with revenues of $3.19 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $12.2 billion, reflecting confidence in the AI infrastructure market [20] - Tesla plans to launch its Optimus V3 robot by Q1 2026, with a production capacity of 1 million units per year, showcasing advancements in robotics and AI [29][30] - The report notes that the food and beverage sector, particularly companies like Hai Tian Wei Ye, has shown steady revenue growth of 2.5% and profit growth of 3.4% in Q3 2025, highlighting resilience in challenging market conditions [51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates robust revenue and profit growth, showcasing its leadership advantage in adversity [4][7] - The company reported a revenue of 216.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 53.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and 10.5% respectively [4] - The revenue and profit for Q3 2025 were 64.0 billion yuan and 14.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 3.4% [4] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 70.4 billion yuan, 79.3 billion yuan, and 87.2 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 11.0%, 12.5%, and 10.1% respectively [4] Revenue Performance - The company’s revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, and oyster sauce increased by 7.9%, 9.6%, and 5.9% respectively in Q1-Q3 2025, with other categories showing a 13.4% increase [5] - Offline channel revenue grew by 7.4%, while online channels saw a significant increase of 32.1% due to new retail strategies [5] - Revenue growth was observed across all regions, with southern and eastern regions growing by 12.7% and 12.1% respectively [5] Profitability Improvement - The gross margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 2025 improved by 3.2 and 1.0 percentage points to 40.0% and 24.6% respectively [6] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to a decrease in raw material costs and the release of scale effects [6] - The company expects stable cost conditions moving forward, with raw material prices remaining steady [7]