财务表现 近52周股价走势 | 华通证券国际 | | --- | | 研究部 | | 宏观组 | | SFC: AAK004 | | Email· research@waton.com | 海天味业（03288.HK) 海天味业：利润增长快于收入，成本控制与国际化推进 | 投资评级： | 持有 | 主要观点： | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-11-25 |  财务表现 | | | |  业务发展 | 盈利预测 预计2025年营业收入增长8.0%，营业利润增长7.81%。2025-2027 年PE对应为24.66、22.36、21.45倍。 风险提示 作者 | 百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 26,901 | 29,053 | 31,087 | 32,952 | | （+/-)% | 10.41 | 8.00 | 7.00 | 6.00 | | 营业利润 | 6,562 | 7,075 | 7,554 | 8,006 | | （+/-)% ...

今天分享的是：国家贝类产业技术体系：中国牡蛎产业发展报告（2025） 报告共计：52页 中国牡蛎产业发展报告（2025）核心内容总结 《中国牡蛎产业发展报告（2025）》于11月15日在山东威海发布，全面剖析了我国牡蛎产业发展现状、国际动态及未来趋势， 牡蛎作为我国产量第一的水产养殖单一物种，在保障食材供给、生态保护和富民增收等方面意义重大。 生产方面，产业规模持续扩张。2013 - 2023年，牡蛎产值从44亿美元增至86亿美元，年均增长率约7%，2024年产量近730万吨， 较2021年增长近25%。养殖区域集中度高，福建、山东、广东三省产量合计占全国超四分之三，其中福建产量最高，山东养殖 面积最大。养殖成本在2018 - 2022年逐年上升后，2023年有所回落，而出塘价格受供给和品质影响呈下降趋势。 市场消费上，人均消费量增长显著。2023年我国牡蛎人均表观消费量达4.70kg/人，是1976年的23倍，远超全球除中国大陆外的 平均水平。消费产品日益丰富，除传统鲜活牡蛎和蚝油外，炭烤生蚝、清蒸生蚝等菜品备受青睐，但市场价格受供过于求等因 素影响，近年呈波动下行态势。 贸易领域表现亮眼，出口量额同比增加 ...

国兴则家兴，家兴则万事兴。 【传承的内核：不是重复答案，而是培养"解题能力"】 在中国民营企业中，家族企业占比已超过80%。近五年来，约四分之三的家族企业正面临交接班的关键阶段。年轻一代能否接好"父辈的旗帜"，不仅是关乎 企业自身兴衰的"家事"，也是关系到经济社会发展的"国事"。 2025年11月18日，《中国家族企业治理报告》在北京发布，国民营经济研究会领导、李锦记集团等数十家家族企业代表及相关学者参与了此次报告发布。 在《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》正式实施及《关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》出台的制度背景下，该报告为家族企业的现代化转型提供了重 要的理论指引与实践路径。 发布会上，李锦记集团执行主席李惠森在致辞中回顾了企业的治理历程。他表示："我深深感到，传承不是重复上一代的答案，而是培养解答新问题的能 力。" 上一代的成功经验固然宝贵，但时代环境、市场格局与技术条件早已发生深刻变化。若一味照搬过去的做法，无异于刻舟求剑。要实现家族企业的永续经 营，就必须将传承观从静态的"守业"转向动态的"创新"。 作为报告发布的核心参与方之一，李锦记集团是跨越四代、持续经营137年、稳健发展的华人家族企业典范。 ...

Core Insights - Haitan Flavor Industry experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on November 20, with a trading volume of 316 million yuan [1] - The company reported a net financing purchase of 5.43 million yuan on the same day, indicating strong investor interest despite the minor price drop [1] Financing Overview - On November 20, Haitan Flavor Industry had a financing buy-in amount of 32.21 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 1.10 billion yuan, representing 0.52% of its market capitalization [1] - The financing balance is above the 70th percentile of the past year, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [1] Short Selling Activity - On the same day, the company saw a short selling repayment of 17,500 shares and a short selling amount of 2,400 shares, totaling approximately 90,600 yuan [1] - The remaining short selling volume was 240,900 shares, with a short selling balance of 9.09 million yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile of the past year, suggesting high short interest [1] Company Profile - Haitan Flavor Industry, established on April 8, 2000, and listed on February 11, 2014, is primarily engaged in the production and sale of condiments, including soy sauce, seasoning sauces, oyster sauce, chicken essence, and vinegar [2] - The revenue composition for the company includes soy sauce (52.05%), other products (16.45%), oyster sauce (16.43%), seasoning sauces (10.68%), and miscellaneous (4.39%) [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Haitan Flavor Industry achieved a revenue of 21.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.02% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.32 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.54% [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Haitan Flavor Industry has distributed a total of 32.71 billion yuan in dividends, with 13.20 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 211,200, up by 6.01% from the previous period [2] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth-largest shareholder, holding 149 million shares, a decrease of 46.83 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong leadership position of Haitian Flavor Industry in the Chinese condiment market, emphasizing its robust brand barriers and significant market share in soy sauce (13.2%) and oyster sauce (40.2%) [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing health-oriented product upgrades and the integration of online and offline channels, which are reshaping the industry [1][2] - The report initiates a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 39.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.8% from the current price of HKD 32.64 [1][2] Industry Overview - The Chinese condiment industry is characterized by steady growth and low concentration, presenting opportunities for consolidation [1] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards healthier products, which is likely to optimize product structures and expand niche markets [1][2] - The distribution network is extensive, with over 6,700 distributors ensuring stable sales across major regions in China [2] Company Performance and Projections - Haitian Flavor Industry is projected to achieve approximately 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from 2024 to 2027, driven by restaurant channel recovery, product innovation, and overseas expansion [2] - The company’s overseas revenue is expected to grow at a double-digit CAGR over the next three years, increasing its share of total revenue [2] - Improvements in gross margin and operating profit margin are anticipated due to declining raw material costs and efficiency enhancements, with net profit expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% [2]

格隆汇11月17日｜国泰海通研报指出，海天味业2025Q1-3实现归母净利润53.22亿元，同比+10.54%；折 合Q3单季度实现归母净利润14.08亿元，同比+3.26%。新品类放量成亮点。分产品看，2025Q1-3公司酱 油/蚝油/调味酱/其他调味品收入分别同比+7.9%/5.9%/9.6%/13.4%；分区域看，东部/南部区域收入分别 同比+12.1%/12.7%，引领大盘扩容。盈利能力保持平稳。2025Q3 公司毛利率为39.63%，同比 +3.02pct，毛利率改善主要归功于大豆、白砂糖及包材等主要原材料价格的下行。成本下行带动下公司 毛利率持续改善，醋、料酒为代表的新业务持续放量驱动收入增长。参考恒顺醋业、金龙鱼及天味食品 给予公司2026年34.1XPE，下调目标价至46.04元（前值为49.08元）。维持"增持" 评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 6.02% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 216.28 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 53.22 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.54% increase [10]. - The introduction of new product categories has been a highlight, with revenue from soy sauce, oyster sauce, seasoning sauces, and other condiments increasing by 7.9%, 5.9%, 9.6%, and 13.4% respectively [10]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved to 39.63%, up by 3.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in prices of key raw materials such as soybeans and sugar [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s total market capitalization is 224.827 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 5,852 million shares [3]. - The net asset per share is 6.76 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 5.7 [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.20, 1.35, and 1.51 yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 11%, 12%, and 12% [10][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 24.559 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.652 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.4% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 5.627 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.860 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - Qianhe Flavor Industry emphasizes the importance of clean ingredients and transparency in food labeling, aligning with consumer trends towards healthier choices and regulatory standards [7][9][10]. Group 1: Product Innovation - Qianhe Flavor Industry has launched the Qianhe 0 series soy sauce, featuring a minimalist ingredient list prominently displayed on the front of the packaging, which includes water, non-GMO soybeans, wheat, edible salt, and white sugar [3][6][10]. - The company has completed the packaging upgrade for the Qianhe 0 series by the end of September, ceasing production of old label products to ensure compliance with new food safety standards [8][9]. Group 2: Commitment to Quality and Safety - The company utilizes non-GMO soybeans and high-quality water sources from the Minshan region to ensure the authentic flavor of its products [2][11]. - Qianhe Flavor Industry employs an automated production line and contactless operations to enhance product safety and quality, minimizing human contact during the manufacturing process [11][15]. Group 3: Regulatory Compliance and Market Trends - The new food safety standards issued by the National Health Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation will take effect in March 2027, promoting clearer labeling practices [8][9]. - The market research indicates that the share of clean ingredient soy sauce in the retail quality soy sauce market is expected to rise to 63.9% over the next three years, marking a significant shift in consumer preferences [11][16]. Group 4: Future Expansion - Qianhe Flavor Industry plans to extend its clean ingredient philosophy beyond soy sauce and vinegar to high-quality oyster sauce, recognizing the growth potential in this category [16].

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities report indicates that Haitian Flavor Industry's Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the net profit for the first three quarters is 5.322 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.54% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue growth has slowed down, but profitability remains stable [1] - Revenue from soy sauce, oyster sauce, seasoning sauce, and other products increased by 5%, 2%, 3.5%, and 6.5% year-on-year respectively, with growth rates for each category slowing compared to Q2 2025 [1] Market Conditions - The slowdown in revenue growth is primarily attributed to weak restaurant performance in Q3 2025 and the company's proactive adjustments [1] - Cost advantages have boosted gross margins, indicating strong profitability [1] Future Outlook - The company is steadily advancing its product and channel strategies, suggesting that stable growth is expected [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 32, 29, and 26 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Q3 2023 financial results of Qianhe Flavor Industry show a recovery in revenue and profit, alongside the company's proactive response to new food labeling regulations, emphasizing transparency and consumer health [1][2][6] Financial Performance - Qianhe Flavor Industry reported a revenue of 1.987 billion yuan and a net profit of 260 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2023 [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 669 million yuan and a net profit of 86 million yuan [1] - Revenue from soy sauce, vinegar, and other businesses in Q3 was 419 million yuan, 79 million yuan, and 133 million yuan respectively, with a significant reduction in the decline compared to Q2 [1] Market Response and Strategy - The company has removed "0 additives" labeling from its packaging in response to new regulations, placing ingredient lists on the front for better consumer visibility [1][2] - Qianhe's chairman emphasized the importance of product quality and compliance with new labeling standards to avoid consumer misunderstandings [2][6] - The company supports the new GB 7718 regulations, which aim to clarify food labeling and promote consumer awareness of ingredients [2][4] Industry Trends - The clean label concept, which originated in Europe, emphasizes transparency and the rejection of artificial additives, pushing companies towards innovation in natural ingredients and processing methods [4][6] - The new GB/T 18186-2025 standard for soy sauce has raised quality requirements and eliminated substandard products, marking a shift towards pure grain brewing [6][7] - Retailers like Walmart are adjusting their product offerings to focus on high-quality, clean-label soy sauces, indicating a market shift towards cleaner ingredients [7][9] Collaboration and Partnerships - Qianhe Flavor Industry is collaborating with major retailers like Walmart to develop unique product quality standards, enhancing its market position [9] - The company aims to leverage partnerships to promote clean-label products, aligning with consumer demands for food safety and quality [9]