摩根士丹利科技谈：Brian Nowak 前瞻 META、GOOGL、AMZN、DASH 与 RDDT 互联网公 司财报 20260127 摘要 Meta 需明确阐述如何将长期模型产品化，尤其在商业消息、智能代理、 扩散模型、元 AI 及可穿戴设备等领域，以提升广告业务并开拓新的收入 增长点，市场关注其支出结构，但公司业务状况实则更健康，增长空间 更大。 谷歌核心搜索业务需实现显著超预期增长（如突破 15%达到 16%- 17%），才能推动估值模型调整并带动股价上涨。谷歌云预计全年增长 50%，但若搜索业务未因 AI 实现超预期增长，或资本支出增加而搜索营 收增长不足，可能下调 2027 年每股收益预期。 谷歌云（GCP）预计全年增长 50%左右，整个谷歌云业务板块全年增速 有望超过 40%，甚至可能达到 45%，关键驱动因素是需求强劲和客户 覆盖广度。最大风险并非需求，而是产能及数据中心投入使用速度。 AWS 第四季度基准预期同比增长 22%。Anthropic 使用定制 Renoir 芯 片，已部署百万片规模用于训练，AWS 未来几个季度或保持较快增速， 具体幅度取决于项目推进和芯片部署规模。OpenAI ...

更早之前，当亚马逊AWS已经在云计算市场占据半壁江山时，谷歌云（GCP）仍一度被视为"追随者"， 但如今凭借AI原生云的定位，成为全球第三大云服务商，增速持续领跑行业。 从搜索引擎的绝对垄断，到安卓系统占据全球移动设备七成以上份额，从云计算的后发先至，到AI时 代的技术引领，谷歌成立二十多年来，几乎在每一个关键技术转折点都踩准了节奏。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，微软有比尔·盖茨、萨提亚·纳德拉，亚马逊有杰夫·贝佐斯，苹果有史蒂夫·乔布 斯、蒂姆·库克，这些CEO的个人光环几乎等同于公司符号。而谷歌的历任CEO，无论是埃里克·施密 特、拉里·佩奇，还是如今的桑达尔·皮查伊，都显得低调内敛，甚至在大众认知中"存在感不强"。 更值得玩味的是，科技行业对"管理文化"的讨论，多集中在微软的刷新、亚马逊的Day1、苹果的极致 产品主义，谷歌的决策逻辑却始终像一个黑箱。它没有喊出振聋发聩的管理口号，也没有形成可复制 的"爆款方法论"，却总能在复杂的市场博弈中做出正确选择——以至于时至今日，在浪潮迭起的时代变 化里，这家公司从未落跑，市值更是超越苹果，成为全球第二极。 这背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的运作模式？ 驱动谷歌持续做对决策的" ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made a rare investment in Google, increasing its stake by $4.3 billion while reducing holdings in Apple and eliminating DHI [1][2] - Google is investing $40 billion in Texas to build three new data centers, indicating strong confidence in its cash flow and AI capabilities [3][4] Group 1: Google AI Development - Google is one of the few companies with a clear plan to monetize AI, possessing data, proprietary chips, and models, making it a unique player in the AI landscape [4] - The AI-driven search revolution is expected to lead to gradual growth, with Google projecting search revenue growth of approximately 12% and 9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7] - Google's search business faces challenges from competitors like OpenAI's GPT series, raising concerns about the retention of commercial queries and long-term revenue [8] Group 2: Cloud Services and Growth Potential - Google Cloud Platform (GCP) is seen as an undervalued asset, with the potential for accelerated growth driven by innovations like the Gemini model and TPU [9] - GCP is projected to grow by approximately 31% to 36% by 2026, with optimistic scenarios suggesting even higher growth if TPU deployment exceeds expectations [10] - The adoption of Gemini has seen significant growth, with 9 million developers utilizing the platform and a notable increase in monthly active users [12] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - Google has formed significant partnerships, including an $80 billion deal with Anthropic for AI chips, which is expected to generate incremental revenue for Google Cloud [15] - A collaboration with OpenAI allows OpenAI to utilize Google Cloud for model training, diversifying its infrastructure dependencies [15] - The partnership with Oracle enhances access to advanced models like Gemini 2.5, supporting digital transformation across various industries [16] Group 4: Supply Chain and Hardware Developments - Key suppliers for Google include Inveck for liquid cooling solutions and Zhongji Xuchuang for optical modules, both of which are critical for Google's data center operations [18][21] - Google is expected to significantly increase its OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) equipment shipments, with suppliers like Tengjing Technology providing essential optical components [23] - The company is also working with PCB suppliers like SNDL and HDGF to support the production of high-layer PCBs for TPU chips [24]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley identifies four key generative AI (GenAI) catalysts reshaping the internet industry: model advancements, agentic experiences, capital expenditures, and custom chips [1][4]. Group 1: AI Catalysts - Continuous breakthroughs in leading AI models and the rise of agentic AI experiences are driving the industry into a new growth phase, enhancing user experience and digital consumer spending [1][5]. - Capital expenditures by major tech companies are projected to reach approximately $505 billion by 2026 and further increase to $586 billion by 2027, indicating a significant investment in AI technologies [1][4]. - The report anticipates a 34% compound annual growth rate in capital expenditures for six major tech giants from 2024 to 2027, which will impact their free cash flow [4][7]. Group 2: Company Preferences - Morgan Stanley ranks Amazon, Meta, and Google as its top preferences among large tech stocks for the next 12 months, citing their ability to leverage AI catalysts to strengthen market positions and create new revenue streams [3][9]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Amazon is favored with a target price of $300, driven by the acceleration of its AWS business and improving profit margins in North American retail [9][11]. - Meta is rated "overweight" with a target price of $850, focusing on improvements in its core platform, the upcoming Llama model, and new business opportunities like AI search [13]. - Google maintains an "overweight" rating with a target price of $210, emphasizing AI-driven search growth and the potential of its cloud business, particularly through partnerships and innovations in custom chips [15].