Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Cha Bai Dao (2555.HK) with a "Buy" rating, anticipating a performance turnaround in 2025 [4][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the combination of industry recovery and product innovation is expected to drive a reversal in the company's performance. The tea beverage industry is entering a favorable cycle, benefiting from external delivery platform subsidies and a stabilization of competition [4][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Cha Bai Dao is a leading mid-range tea beverage brand in China, with a national presence and a focus on product diversity. As of 2024, the company operates 8,395 stores across various city tiers, with a significant presence in first and new first-tier cities [10][13]. - The company has established a strong franchise model and supply chain capabilities, maintaining its position as the third-largest player in the ready-to-drink tea market in China [12][13]. Industry Dynamics - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028. The market is currently characterized by a low penetration rate compared to developed markets [56][59]. - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with external subsidies from delivery platforms driving demand. The competitive landscape is stabilizing as brands shift from aggressive price competition to value-based competition [56][75]. Growth Potential - The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its store network both domestically and internationally. The report anticipates significant growth in lower-tier cities and overseas markets, with a CAGR of 49.4% in store openings in lower-tier cities from 2020 to 2024 [10][12]. - Cha Bai Dao's product matrix includes a variety of tea beverages, with a focus on innovation and consumer trends. The company aims to launch new products weekly, enhancing its competitive edge [10][12]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Cha Bai Dao's revenue will recover from 49.18 billion yuan in 2024 to 57.60 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from 472 million yuan in 2024 to 922 million yuan in 2025. The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.38, 12.22, and 10.74, respectively [5][10]. - The financial performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining a healthy balance sheet and cash flow management. The company has a low debt ratio of 28.40% as of 2024, indicating a strong financial position [53][54].

狮城首秀，茶百道双店齐开。 此前，茶百道分别在4月和6月先后官宣新加坡首批两家门店的筹备进展。茶咖观察发现，7月12日，两家门店开启试营业。 图源：小红书@茶百道新加坡 据了解，这两家门店分别位于乌节路SCAPE中心与义顺Northpoint中心两大热门商圈，营业时间为早10点至晚10点。据悉，SCAPE门店将于7月18日正式 开业，而Northpoint门店在一周后同步迎来正式开业。为庆祝开业，两家门店还将推出"买一送一"的限时优惠活动。 茶百道正是依托这些优势，在新加坡采用"跨境+本地"的混合供应模式——鲜奶、水果等易腐食材与当地供应商合作，而茶底、包材等核心原料则通过跨 境物流输送，既保证了产品稳定性，又优化了成本效率。 而且，其在马来西亚的运营经验也为新加坡市场提供了供应链协同优势，例如东南亚热带水果原料的共享采购，进一步降低运营成本。 最后，新加坡华裔人口占其总数超70%，庞大的华裔人口为茶百道提供了消费基础和文化认同优势。华裔群体对中式茶饮的偏好度高，尤其熟悉珍珠奶 茶、水果茶等经典品类，降低了茶百道的市场教育成本。 从透露的菜单看，茶百道为新加坡市场准备了18款饮品，价格区间设定在2.5-6.9 ...