回顾2025年消费领域，新茶饮无疑写下了浓厚的一笔。 这一年，蜜雪冰城、古茗、沪上阿姨、霸王茶姬先后成功上市，与之前登陆资本市场的奈雪、茶百道"胜利会师"。一时间，"新茶饮六小龙"之名不胫而 走，也造就了一段段财富传奇。 作为餐饮行业中成长最快的一个细分品类，中国新茶饮全国门店数量已经突破40万家。在资本追捧下，甚至出现1条商业街上10几家奶茶店的情况，很多 网友对此调侃"这几条街曾经渴过太多人"。 但与此同时，新茶饮行业的"优胜劣汰"进程加速推进。公开数据显示，过去一年里，有15.7万家奶茶店从市场消失，奶茶店们以惊人的速度刷新行业闭店 率榜首。 | 品牌总数 | 连锁化率 (? | | --- | --- | | 4,073个 | 50.54% | | 门店总数 | 每万人门店数 | | 410,245家 | 2.9家 | | 近一年新开店数 | 近一年净增长数 | | 101,504家 | -29,349家 | 在其背后，是新茶饮品类的"大洗牌"一直在发挥作用。 品类迭代 中国现制茶饮的发展史，堪称消费升级的一部教科书。 上世纪80年代，以快可立为代表的品牌将珍珠奶茶从台湾引入大陆，产品以茶粉、植脂末为 ...

苹果从2008年进入智能手机时代开始，几乎一年一款iPhone，iPhone4单一型号在2010-2012年占苹果公司的总收入一度达到了40%，而时至今日，iPhone手 机产品占公司总营收的比例依然稳定在50%。 特斯拉的产品策略一直是大单品。 在2015-2016年的发展初期，高端车型Model S占收入的70%以上，2018-2020年Model 3成为收入主力，长期占50%以 上，超过X、S、Y车型之和。2023-2025年，Model Y发力，收入占比超50%。 可口可乐毫无疑问是大单品。经典款可乐长期占收入比重接近一半。 大单品的好处显而易见，你只需要专注一项产品的开发、提升，然后用一切市场资源保证它有足够大的需求。 更复杂的商业环境，更残酷的商业竞争，共同压缩了「单一产品定成败」的空间。未来的经营里，我们都需要从大单品的「简化公式」去学习 多SKU的「复杂方程」。 近来与众多创业者交流，常常听到同一类焦虑：到底该死磕一个「大单品」，还是尽快铺开产品线？ 背后是当下商业增长引擎的切换——市场竞争正从「赌对一个爆款」的运气游戏，演变为「运营一套产品矩阵」的耐力比赛。 大单品让人着迷，首先因为它的极致 ...

作者 | 丹木 编辑|麻吉 县城与北上广的边界，也许还没真正消融在一杯拉花咖啡里，但已经被"桂花乌龙奶茶们"抹平。 前几年回到县城过年时，在北京工作的米娜会无比想念桂花冻、血糯米、芋泥和各种现制水果茶。老家并没有像样的咖啡厅和奶茶店，仅有的少数几家 店，产品也是充满了香精味，甜得难以入口。 但今年回到老家的米娜打开外卖软件，发现县城也有了霸王茶姬和沪上阿姨。 "现在愁的不是老家没有奶茶和果茶，是怎样才能在假期把大型连锁品牌和本地小品牌，甚至独立咖啡厅挨个尝一遍。"米娜说。 图源：Unsplash 县城的发展速度，让许多在大城市的打工人感到一种反向折叠。 从前，县城单调的生活令年轻人厌倦。如今，星巴克、喜茶、肯德基、屈臣氏等一线品牌跑步下沉，霸王茶姬、古茗还有各地的区域特调奶茶们，也开始 在广袤的县城遍地开花，奶茶春节档的火爆，让人们再一次看到下沉市场的旺盛生命力。 分秒必争，奶茶外卖迎火爆"春节档" 在过往，春节档是电影行业专属词汇。而今年春节，茶饮行业也迎来一波"票房"暴涨。 以县城为代表的下沉市场是绝对的主战场。从北京返乡过年的米娜告诉价值星球，从前老家没有多少好喝的新茶饮品牌，春节在家待久了，就会格外怀 ...

Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry has experienced a decline in the emergence of "hit products" over the past few years, with brands struggling to replicate past successes like cheese tea and dirty tea [2][8] - The market has evolved, and new brands are exploring different avenues for growth, while the industry faces challenges such as flavor homogenization and changing consumer preferences [8][9] Industry Growth and Trends - The new tea beverage industry saw a compound annual growth rate of 24.9% from 2017 to 2022, with the market size expected to exceed 354.7 billion yuan by 2024 and over 500,000 stores established [7] - The initial success of brands like Heytea and Naixue's Tea was driven by high-quality, freshly made products that attracted a young consumer base [4][5] Challenges in Product Innovation - The difficulty in creating new hit products is attributed to severe flavor homogenization, with many brands using similar ingredients and supply chains [8] - The rapid replication of successful products by competitors has made it challenging to develop unique offerings that can achieve widespread popularity [8][9] Consumer Behavior and Preferences - Consumers have become more discerning, with 73.09% of them sticking to 1-2 brands and showing reluctance to try new products due to perceived low value [9] - Increased health consciousness has led to a decline in the frequency of purchases, as consumers are more cautious about high-calorie drinks [9] Strategic Responses from Brands - Brands are diversifying their offerings by expanding into food and creating a full-day product ecosystem, with many introducing baked goods and light meals to complement their tea products [10][12] - Some brands are focusing on upgrading core products and optimizing supply chains to enhance cost efficiency and product quality [12] Localization and Emotional Value - Newer brands are adopting localized strategies, emphasizing regional flavors and ingredients to create unique identities [15] - Emotional value is becoming a significant factor in consumer choices, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Bawang Tea Princess successfully connecting with consumers through quality and cultural narratives [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The new tea beverage market is transitioning from rapid growth to a more mature phase, with increasing competition leading to a shift from high-priced, heavily marketed products to a focus on frequency and sustainable operations. The performance of listed tea companies will increasingly depend on their strategic alignment with lower-tier markets [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in store expansion, with a shift towards enhancing consumer frequency. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.59% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a transition from scale expansion to high-quality development [2][11] - The focus for value growth in tea companies will be on product innovation, strengthening supply chains, and expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][53] Summary by Sections Industry Development Trends - The new tea beverage industry has seen rapid growth since 2015, with market size increasing from 1,878 billion yuan in 2018 to 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 22.47% [11] - The industry is shifting from price upgrades to frequency enhancements as the main growth driver, with a notable increase in market concentration due to intensified competition [1][15] - The average per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages in China is only 22 cups, compared to 323 cups in the US, indicating significant room for growth in consumption frequency [22] Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for new tea companies has shown significant divergence, with early entrants like Nayuki Tea and Cha Baidao facing stock price declines, while companies like Mixue Group have performed strongly post-IPO [2][28] - The IPO performance of new tea companies has been mixed, with some experiencing severe declines post-listing, highlighting the market's cautious sentiment towards high-end brands [28][30] Corporate Value Growth - Companies are focusing on product innovation by enhancing health attributes through functional ingredients, strengthening supply chains for cost efficiency, and exploring international markets for growth [3][53] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading companies like Mixue Group and Gu Ming leveraging their supply chain capabilities and market positioning to achieve superior profitability and cost control [49][50]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of the new tea beverage industry over the past decade, highlighting significant product innovations and trends that have shaped consumer preferences [2][3]. Industry Evolution - The new tea beverage industry has experienced a "golden decade" from 2015 to 2025, marked by the emergence of "super milk teas" and innovative product offerings [2][4]. - Key products that defined this period include cheese milk cap tea, fresh fruit tea, and various unique flavors that have captured market attention [4][6]. Major Trends and Innovations - 2016 saw the rise of cheese milk cap tea, with brands like Heytea and Naixue introducing fresh fruit tea combinations, which became a hallmark of the new tea beverage era [4][6]. - The introduction of brown sugar drinks in 2017, such as the "dirty tea" from brands like Dujiaoxiang, created a new market segment and led to widespread popularity [8][10]. - By 2018, the market witnessed a surge in niche products, with brands like Shuyi and Hushang Ayi focusing on unique ingredients like grass jelly and red bean milk tea, leading to rapid expansion [14][16]. Product Highlights - Notable products from 2019 to 2020 included the introduction of creamy toppings and the "eight-treasure porridge" style drinks, which redefined consumer expectations for beverage complexity [19][21]. - The trend of using lesser-known fruits in beverages gained traction in 2021, with products like oil citrus and yellow skin fruit becoming popular, showcasing a shift towards unique flavor profiles [21][24]. - The introduction of health-focused beverages in 2023, such as light milk tea and avocado yogurt smoothies, reflects changing consumer preferences towards healthier options [29][31]. Future Outlook - By 2025, the industry is expected to continue evolving towards richer flavors and healthier options, with products like mint milk green tea and Thai salted yogurt gaining popularity [33][35]. - The article emphasizes that despite market saturation, true product innovation and quality will drive the industry's future growth, highlighting the importance of continuous improvement in ingredients and flavor profiles [35].