2025.09. 30 本文字数：1102，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆涵之 国庆叠加中秋双节假期即将到来，多个出行平台预测，本次假期出行需求将迎来高峰。 第一财经记者从中国铁路上海局集团有限公司获悉，9月30日，长三角铁路持续迎来国庆黄金周出行 大客流，当天预计发送旅客365万人次，较2024年同期（9月30日）多发送旅客21.3万人次，增幅超 6%。 国铁集团数据显示，国庆中秋假期运输将于9月29日启动，至10月10日结束，为期12天，全国铁路 预计发送旅客2.19亿人次，10月1日将迎来客流最高峰。 由于两个节日叠加，不少人选择请假拼出更长假期，因此假期出行需求也有前置。滴滴出行预测，自 9月26日起，全国打车需求将显著上升并持续保持高位，于9月30日达到假期出行最高峰，预约用车 需求预计相比平日翻倍。 此外，滴滴出行预测节日出行的第二个高峰在中秋节，预计当日打车需求相比节前上涨50%。团圆 佳节，平台预计品质出行需求上升，打专车、豪华车出行的需求预计较前一日将分别上涨83%和 47%。 除了前往各大交通枢纽点，出游也拉动了出行消费。滴滴预计，假期异地打车预计环比上涨51%。 除一线城市外 ...

Core Insights - The passenger car industry in 2025 is experiencing a rational return to promotions and price reductions, leading to improved market order [1] - The number of new car price reductions from January to August 2025 is relatively moderate, with 129 models experiencing price cuts [1][6] - The price competition is primarily driven by new models breaking existing price floors rather than enhancing features without lowering prices [1][6] Price Reduction Analysis - From January to August 2025, the average price reduction for new energy vehicles reached 21,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 10.9% [2][10] - In August 2025, the average price reduction for new energy vehicles was 19,000 yuan, with a lower reduction rate of 7.3% [2][10] - The average price reduction for conventional fuel vehicles from January to August 2025 was 15,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 9.0% [10] - In August 2025, the average price reduction for conventional fuel vehicles was 11,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 8.4% [10] Market Dynamics - The implementation of the trade-in policy has significantly boosted market sales, reducing the pressure on the industry and stabilizing promotional activities [2] - The profit margin for the automotive industry reached 6.9% in June 2025, indicating a positive trend in industry performance [2] - The promotional rate for new energy vehicles rose to 10.7% in August 2025, an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [15] - The promotional rate for traditional fuel vehicles remained stable at 22.9% in August 2025, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [14] Monthly Price Reduction Tracking - In August 2025, a total of 23 models were reduced in price, an increase of 5 models compared to July [1][8] - The breakdown of price reductions in August includes 5 conventional fuel vehicles, 1 hybrid vehicle, 2 plug-in hybrid vehicles, 1 range-extended vehicle, and 14 pure electric vehicles [8] - The overall price reduction trend from January to August 2025 shows a significant decrease in the number of models being reduced in price compared to previous years [5][6] Promotional Trends - The promotional activities for luxury vehicles reached 27.3% in August 2025, reflecting a strong demand for high-end models despite competition from new energy vehicles [17] - The promotional rate for joint venture fuel vehicles was 22.0% in August 2025, indicating a stable promotional environment [19] - The promotional rate for independent fuel vehicles increased to 18.4% in August 2025, showing a growing trend in promotional activities [21]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant loss attributable to macroeconomic factors, weakened domestic consumption, and intensified price competition, particularly affecting the luxury car segment [1] Financial Performance - The company expects a loss attributable to equity shareholders of not less than RMB 800 million for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of approximately RMB 30 million in the first half of 2024 [1] - Non-cash impairment of goodwill and dealership rights is projected to be at least RMB 800 million for the first half of 2025, a substantial increase from approximately RMB 150 million in the first half of 2024 [1] Market Conditions - The ongoing imbalance in supply and demand for passenger vehicles and the escalating price war are key factors contributing to the anticipated losses [1] - The increase in consumption tax on ultra-luxury cars is expected to negatively impact future performance in that segment [1] Financial Strategy - The company maintains a sound overall financial condition and healthy cash flow from operating activities, indicating a cautious and prudent financial strategy moving forward [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - From April 1-6, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 210,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but a month-on-month decrease of 14%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 5.336 million units, up 6% year-on-year [1][3] - During the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars were 212,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, but a month-on-month decrease of 21%. Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 6.49 million units, up 11% year-on-year [1][3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - Retail sales of new energy vehicles from April 1-6 reached 113,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17%, but a month-on-month decrease of 17%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 2.533 million units, up 35% year-on-year [1][3] - Wholesale sales of new energy vehicles during the same period were 120,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, but a month-on-month decrease of 16%. Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 2.968 million units, up 42% year-on-year [1][3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The automotive market is expected to maintain stable growth in April 2025, supported by favorable working days and the implementation of the vehicle scrappage policy [4][5] - The impact of external factors, such as increased tariffs, has influenced consumer sentiment, but domestic demand policies are expected to support market stability [3][5] Group 4: Pricing Trends - In March 2025, the average price reduction for pure electric vehicles was 176,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 9.1%. For plug-in hybrid vehicles, the average price reduction was 179,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 4.8% [6][7] - Traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing an aging trend, leading to a reliance on promotions for sales, with promotional rates for fuel vehicles reaching 22.1% in March 2025 [7] Group 5: Used Car Market - In the first two months of 2025, the used car market saw a transaction volume of 2.85 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, with a transaction value of 186.2 billion yuan, down 5% [8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the used car market reached 9.1% in February 2025, indicating a growing trend [8] Group 6: Industry Performance - In 2024, the production of passenger vehicles is expected to reach 31.56 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with new energy vehicle production projected at 13.17 million units, up 39% [9] - The average gross margin for car manufacturers is around 15%, with some companies like Seres and Xiaomi exceeding 20% [9]