【文/观察者网专栏作者 晨枫】 近日，美国海军将下一代核潜艇SSN（X）的建造从2035年推迟到2040年，这引起急于逆转美军在西太 平洋颓势的人们的焦虑。没错，美军在西太平洋处于颓势之中，连F-15EX首次飞抵嘉手纳、参加 REFORPAC 25演习都成了鼓舞士气的新闻。 嘉手纳可算是美军对抗中国的最前沿，这是美军干预台海的最重要基地，一直由已经老旧得不成样的F- 15C驻守。F-15EX是50多年前就首飞的F-15的最新型号，当然对美国来说，唯一可以挽尊的是中国 歼-16也在继续生产。 REFORPAC全称是Resolute Force Pacific，这是向1967年开始的REFORGER演习致敬，不过REFORGER 的全称是Return of Forces to Germany。 发动这一演习的背景是，在60年代，约翰逊决定扩大越南战争，美军计划从欧洲抽调两个师。为了显示 美国对北约承诺的决心，再平衡被越南战争严重影响的全球兵力部署格局，美国人发起了REFORGER 演习。虽然更加确切的翻译是"部队重返德国"演习，但有人按照字面翻译成"重锤"演习，这个缩写无疑 也是美国刻意留给公众的印象之一。 Re ...

Core Insights - The importance of rare earth resources has significantly increased globally, particularly in high-tech and military applications, with China being the largest producer and tightening export controls, impacting the global market, especially the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Dependency on Rare Earths - The U.S. recognizes the irreplaceable role of rare earth elements like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium in its industrial and military production, with significant quantities required for advanced military equipment such as the F-35 fighter jet and nuclear submarines [3][5] - In 2024, the U.S. resorted to smuggling rare earths through countries like Thailand and Mexico, with 4,000 tons smuggled, which is 35 times the import volume of the past three years, highlighting the deep dependency on these resources [5][8] Group 2: China's Response to Smuggling - China has implemented strict measures against U.S. smuggling activities, enhancing customs monitoring and introducing advanced scanning technology to detect illegal shipments [9] - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective July 2025, imposes severe penalties for rare earth smuggling, including up to 10 years of imprisonment and fines up to five times the illegal gains [9] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Implications - The smuggling actions and China's countermeasures reflect the fragility of the global supply chain in the face of resource control, emphasizing the high dependency of U.S. industries on Chinese rare earths [8][11] - The competition for rare earth resources is becoming a focal point in international relations, with countries likely to increase their own resource development and research into alternatives to avoid reliance on illegal channels [15][17]

Group 1 - China's recent escalation of rare earth export controls has caused significant concern in the United States, highlighting a shift in power dynamics [1] - China holds approximately 85% of the world's rare earth resources, making it crucial for high-tech industries globally, including smartphones, computers, and military equipment like the F-35 fighter jet [3] - Historically, China sold rare earths at extremely low prices, lacking pricing power and technology, while the U.S. profited from high-end products made from these resources [5] Group 2 - The U.S. has relied heavily on Chinese rare earth imports, with 78% of its total demand met by China last year, despite public claims of wanting to reduce dependency [11] - A U.S. Department of Defense report indicated that if China were to completely cut off rare earth supplies, U.S. weapon production would halt within six months, underscoring the critical nature of these materials for the military [11] - China is not only controlling raw material supply but is also advancing in downstream industries such as electric vehicles and wind power, which are key applications for rare earths [12] Group 3 - The U.S. attempts to find alternative rare earth sources in countries like Australia and Canada face challenges due to a lack of processing technology, which could take 10 to 15 years to develop [13] - China's actions are framed as legitimate business practices rather than retaliation, emphasizing a shift in the balance of power and the need for new rules in the industry [13] - The narrative suggests that any attempts to undermine China's position will ultimately backfire, as the U.S. faces increasing challenges in its military and high-tech sectors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Trump's comments regarding Medvedev's remarks on nuclear threats, highlighting tensions between the U.S. and Russia related to nuclear capabilities [1] Group 1 - Trump claims Medvedev made alarming statements about nuclear weapons, referring to them as an "ultimate threat" [1] - Russian media suggests that Trump's comments about deploying nuclear submarines near Russia are unfounded and fabricated threats [1] - Medvedev warns Trump to consider the "death hand," a reference to Russia's automatic nuclear retaliation system developed during the Cold War [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's response to provocative statements from Russian officials, including the deployment of two nuclear submarines, and highlights the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia regarding military actions and diplomatic negotiations [1]. Group 1: Military Actions - President Trump announced the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to provocative comments from Dmitry Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council [1]. - The specifics regarding whether the submarines are equipped with nuclear weapons or conventional arms were not disclosed [1]. - The exact deployment area for the submarines was also not specified by Trump [1]. Group 2: Diplomatic Tensions - Trump previously threatened to impose "very severe" tariffs on Russia if a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine was not reached within 50 days, later shortening this deadline to 10 to 12 days [1]. - Medvedev responded to Trump's ultimatum, stating that the timing for Russia to negotiate should not be dictated by Trump [1]. - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio's statement that direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Russia should be avoided [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is facing a significant crisis in rare earth elements (REE), heavily reliant on China for military applications, which exposes strategic vulnerabilities and may lead to costly failures in its "decoupling" strategy from Chinese supply chains [1][3][10] Group 1: U.S. Military and Supply Chain Issues - The U.S. military's dependence on China for REE is critical, with 90% of military-grade REE sourced from China, leading to production halts in key defense projects like the Raytheon Tomahawk missile and Pratt & Whitney engine upgrades [1][3] - The Pentagon's strategic reserves are only sufficient for 9 months, highlighting the urgency of the situation [1] Group 2: Legislative and Corporate Responses - The U.S. Senate is attempting to advance the Critical Minerals Act, but major companies like General Motors and Tesla oppose it due to potential cost increases of $500 for electric vehicles if they sever ties with Chinese supply chains [1][3] - The U.S. government has invested hundreds of billions to reduce reliance on China, including a $4 billion acquisition of MP Materials shares and a $110 per kilogram long-term procurement contract [3] Group 3: China's Strategic Position - China has increased its REE exports to the U.S. significantly in June, but this was primarily due to the release of previously backlogged orders rather than a genuine increase in supply [5] - China's export strategy is selective, prioritizing long-term contracts and controlling high-purity REE exports critical for military applications [5][9] Group 4: Technological and Market Control - China is advancing its technological edge in REE extraction and processing, with estimates suggesting that the U.S. may need 10 to 20 years and trillions in investment to catch up [3][7] - China has also implemented stricter export controls on REE technologies, which could hinder U.S. capabilities in critical sectors [7][9] Group 5: Long-term Implications - The U.S. is at a crossroads, facing the dilemma of either paying high prices for Chinese REE or risking paralysis in its military and renewable energy sectors [9][10] - The competition for REE has evolved beyond a trade war, with China potentially monopolizing the secondary supply of REE by 2030, further complicating U.S. efforts to establish independence [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced high tariffs on goods from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [1][3] - The tariffs have triggered strong international backlash, with leaders from affected countries condemning the U.S. actions as humiliating and unfair [3][4] - The financial markets reacted negatively, with significant drops in major indices and stock prices of Japanese automakers [6] Group 2 - The "Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed by Trump has led to increased logistics costs for Chinese e-commerce and heightened tax burdens for semiconductor companies [8] - China's export controls on rare earth elements have impacted the U.S. military supply chain, highlighting vulnerabilities in U.S. reliance on Chinese resources [9] - The global trade landscape is shifting, with trade volumes in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East growing faster than the global average, indicating a move towards a multipolar trade environment [11]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of focus and dedication in achieving greatness, as illustrated by historical figures like Victor Hugo and Huang Xuhua [1][2] - The article highlights that true success requires a commitment to one's craft, often at the expense of personal recognition and social distractions [1][2] - It discusses the value of humility and the ability to resist the temptations of fame and fortune, as demonstrated by authors like Qian Zhongshu and the Wright brothers [2] Group 2 - The narrative suggests that enduring solitude and temptation while innovating is essential for creating lasting works [3]

Core Insights - China's rare earth exports are projected to increase from 48,700 tons in 2022 to 55,400 tons in 2024, raising concerns for the U.S. F-35 production line which requires significant amounts of rare earth materials [1][3] - Despite the increase in export volume, the export value has significantly decreased from $7 billion in 2022 to $3.48 billion in 2024, indicating a drop in prices despite higher quantities sold [3] - China holds 33.8% of global rare earth reserves and monopolizes extraction technology, allowing it to control export volumes effectively [3][10] Export Dynamics - The export volume growth of only 6% in 2024 has puzzled Western nations, especially given the explosive growth in global electric vehicle production, which requires substantial amounts of rare earth materials [5] - China employs a strategy of dynamic quotas, tariff leverage, and technology controls to manage its rare earth exports, rather than simply increasing production [5][10] - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for rare earths, with 80-85% of its supply coming from abroad, 70% of which is sourced from China [5] Competitive Landscape - Other countries like Vietnam and Australia are attempting to enter the rare earth market, but face significant challenges such as lower ore grades and environmental issues [7] - China's advanced extraction technologies, such as the sequential extraction method developed by Xu Guangxian, provide a competitive edge that cannot be easily replicated by other nations [7][10] - Currently, 60% of China's rare earth permanent magnet exports are utilized in high-end applications, such as electric motors for Tesla and Siemens, indicating a strategic focus on value-added products rather than raw materials [7] Strategic Transformation - The shift from merely selling raw materials to setting industry standards reflects a strategic evolution in China's approach to rare earths, emphasizing technological innovation over resource extraction [10] - As the U.S. faces a lengthy timeline to establish new rare earth mines, China's export strategy has effectively created a technological network that enhances its position in the global market [10]

Group 1 - Major automotive companies like General Motors, Toyota, and Volkswagen are sounding alarms over potential production halts due to a shortage of rare earth elements from China, with a warning that factories could shut down within 40 days if supplies are not secured [1][8] - The price of rare earth elements has surged from $425 per kilogram in April to $850, more than doubling, causing significant disruptions in production lines, including Tesla's robot production line [1][8] - The global manufacturing sector is experiencing panic buying, with U.S. companies stockpiling six months' worth of supplies, leading to a dramatic increase in orders [8][10] Group 2 - China controls 36% of global rare earth reserves and 92% of refining capacity, making it a critical player in the supply chain for high-tech industries [6][10] - The U.S. and other Western countries are struggling to find alternative sources for rare earth elements, with efforts like the "Rare Earth Independence Plan" projected to meet only 20% of demand by 2027 [10][13] - The G7 summit faced significant challenges, with divisions emerging among member countries regarding their stance on China and rare earth supply issues, leading to the cancellation of a joint statement for the first time in 19 years [13][15] Group 3 - The military sector is particularly vulnerable, with reports indicating that the F-35 production line could permanently shut down if rare earth supplies are not restored within three months [8][10] - The technological gap between China and the West in rare earth processing and production capabilities is widening, with China holding 80% of global separation patents and achieving higher production yields [10][17] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with countries like Australia and Canada reconsidering their positions and seeking dialogue with China amid the rare earth supply crisis [13][15]