10月10日晚间，包钢股份（600010）、北方稀土（600111）发布公告，上调2025年第四季度稀土精矿关联交易价格。 公告均称，拟将2025年第四季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税26205元/吨（干量，REO=50%）。REO每增减1%，不含税价格增减524.10 元/吨。 | 时间 | 拟调整价格(元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度 | 19109 | | 2025年第二季度 | 18825 | | 2025年第一季度 | 18618 | | 2024年第四季度 | 17782 | | 2024年第三季度 | 16741 | | 2024年第二季度 | 16792 | | 2024年第一季度 | 20737 | 这一价格调整机制已运行两年有余。根据《关于稀土精矿日常关联交易定价机制及2023年度交易预计的公告》，北方稀土与关联方包钢股份约 定，自2023年4月1日起，在稀土精矿定价公式不变的情况下，每季度首月上旬，公司经理层根据稀土精矿定价公式计算、调整稀土精矿价格， 重新签订稀土精矿供应合同或补充协议并公告。 值得注意的是，10月10日，北方稀土发布了前三季度业绩预 ...

10月10日晚间，包钢股份、北方稀土发布公告，上调2025年第四季度稀土精矿关联交易价 格。 公告均称，拟将2025年第四季度稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税26205元/吨（干量， REO=50%）。REO每增减1%，不含税价格增减524.10元/吨。 记者丨 董鹏 编辑丨巫燕玲 江佩佩 见习编辑张嘉钰 上海有色数据显示，26205元/吨与2025年第三季度的稀土精矿交易价格19109元/吨相比，上涨 了7096元/吨，环比涨幅为37.13%。 据悉，稀土精矿交易价格已连续5次上调。此前5个季度稀土精矿交易价格分别为16741元/吨、 17782元/吨、18618元/吨、18825元/吨、19109元/吨，环比增幅分别为6.2%、4.7%、1.1%、 1.5%。 | 时间 | 拟调整价格(元/吨) | | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度 | 19109 | | 2025年第二季度 | 18825 | | 2025年第一季度 V | 18618 | | 2024年第四季度 | 17782 | | 2024年第三季度 | 16741 | | 2024年第二季度 | 16792 | | 2024年 ...

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Performance - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 4.11% and a transaction volume of 340 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 559 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's scale increased by 23.8 million yuan in the past week, with a total share growth of 94.5 million shares this month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the last 10 trading days, the Rare Earth ETF attracted a total of 180 million yuan in inflows [3] - As of September 15, the fund's net value has increased by 124.59% over the past year, placing it in the top 3.12% among 3013 index equity funds [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 4 months and a maximum increase of 83.89% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Demand Drivers - The average spot prices for praseodymium and neodymium metals were 540,000 yuan/ton and 441,000 yuan/ton respectively in the first half of the year, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 12.7% [4] - Demand for rare earth materials is rapidly growing due to policies promoting "carbon neutrality," as well as the recovery in traditional manufacturing and the acceleration of humanoid robot deployment [4] - Guojin Securities believes that the rare earth sector may enter a third phase of supply-side reform, with significant increases in magnetic material exports observed in July, up 75% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year [4] - The combination of price increases, supply-side reforms, and supply disruptions is expected to enhance the strategic attributes of the rare earth sector, leading to a dual increase in valuation and performance [4] Group 3: Key Stocks and Weightings - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for a total of 62.15%, including Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Lingyi Zhi Zao, and others [3] - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth down 4.76% and China Rare Earth down 4.67%, with respective weights of 13.22% and 5.63% [6]

Group 1 - The rare earth sector has emerged as the strongest track in A-shares this year, with an average increase of 150.8% as of the end of August, leading over 300 sub-industries in the Shenwan index [1] - The recent performance of the rare earth industry index has surpassed the peak of the 2015 bull market, driven by the end of a two-year profit decline and a strategic value reassessment of rare earths [2] - The capital market has assigned higher valuation premiums to companies in the rare earth sector, with North Rare Earth's stock price exceeding 56 yuan, while its earnings per share for the first half of the year was 0.26 yuan, with a consensus forecast of 0.76 yuan for the full year [3][4] Group 2 - The rare earth industry is experiencing better conditions this year compared to last year, with significant price increases for praseodymium and neodymium metals, which rose by 11.9% and 12.7% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The recovery in profitability for related listed companies is evident, with North Rare Earth's gross margin increasing by 4.32 percentage points to 12.28%, and Guangsheng Nonferrous's gross margin rising by 5.1 percentage points to 6.4% [7] - North Rare Earth reported significant increases in production and sales volumes for its main products, with sales of rare earth metals increasing by 32.33% and functional materials by 17.93% year-on-year [7] Group 3 - The average profit growth rate for four sample companies in the rare earth sector reached 723%, with North Rare Earth's net profit increasing by 1952% [8] - The demand for rare earths is improving, with a strong rebound in prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides observed in July, indicating a gradual increase in industry prosperity [8] - Despite the profit recovery, the overall profit scale of these companies is still far from the peak levels of the previous industry cycle, with North Rare Earth's net profit in 2021 and 2022 exceeding 5 billion yuan [11][12] Group 4 - The valuation levels of rare earth companies are significantly higher than those in other non-ferrous metal industries, attributed to the strategic importance of rare earth products [13] - Recent government measures, including export controls on certain rare earth items and stricter regulations on the industry, have contributed to the higher valuation premiums in the market [14][15] - The stock prices of these companies are expected to fluctuate around their enterprise values, with future adjustments relying on either profit growth or stock price corrections [15]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector has emerged as the strongest track in A-shares this year, with an average increase of 150.8% as of the end of August, leading all sub-industries in the Shenwan index [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The rare earth industry has seen a recovery in profitability after two years of decline, with significant performance improvements in 2023 [1][3] - The average profit growth rate for four major rare earth companies reached 723%, with North Rare Earth's net profit growth soaring by 1952% [3][5] - The prices of praseodymium and neodymium metals increased by 11.9% and 12.7% respectively in the first half of the year, supported by stable domestic demand [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - North Rare Earth reported a significant recovery in sales, with a 32.33% increase in rare earth metal product sales and a 17.93% increase in functional materials [3] - Other companies like Shenghe Resources also showed recovery, with profits rebounding from a loss of 0.69 billion to a profit of 3.77 billion in the first half of the year [3] - The gross profit margin for North Rare Earth improved by 4.32 percentage points to 12.28%, while Guangsheng Youse's margin increased by 5.1 percentage points to 6.4% [2] Group 3: Market Valuation - The market has assigned higher valuation premiums to rare earth companies, with North Rare Earth's annualized valuation reaching 74 times based on expected earnings [6] - Other companies in the sector also maintain high valuation levels, with Shenghe Resources at 62.2 times and Guangsheng Youse at 101 times [6] - The increase in valuations is attributed to the strategic importance of rare earth products and recent regulatory measures enhancing industry standards [6]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector has emerged as the strongest segment in the A-share market this year, with an average increase of 150.8% as of the end of August, leading over 300 other sub-industries [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The rare earth industry index has recently surpassed the peak levels seen during the 2015 bull market, driven by a recovery in profitability after two years of decline and a strategic value reassessment of rare earths [2] - The average net profit growth for four major rare earth companies reached 723%, with North Rare Earth showing a staggering 1952% increase in net profit [7] - The prices of praseodymium and neodymium metals increased by 11.9% and 12.7% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to the industry's improved performance [5] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - North Rare Earth reported a significant recovery in profitability, with a net profit margin increase of 4.32 percentage points to 12.28% [5] - The sales volume of key products such as rare earth metals and functional materials saw substantial growth, with rare earth metal sales increasing by 32.33% [6] - The stock price of North Rare Earth has reached over 56 yuan, reflecting a high valuation premium, with an annualized valuation of 74 times based on projected earnings [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The capital market has assigned higher valuation premiums to rare earth companies due to their strategic importance in national competition [3][10] - Fund holdings in the rare earth sector have increased, with a notable rise in shares held by funds in companies like China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [8] - Recent government policies, including export controls and management regulations, have heightened the focus on the rare earth industry, further influencing market valuations [11][12]

Group 1 - The price of praseodymium-neodymium (NdPr), essential for manufacturing strong magnets, has reached a high for the first time in over two years due to MP Materials halting exports to major Chinese magnet manufacturers amid rising demand [3] - NdPr is a crucial alloy for producing electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and defense equipment, with MP Materials supplying 7-9% of China's NdPr oxide production over the past three years [3] - The benchmark price for NdPr oxide in China has reached 632,000 RMB per ton (approximately 88 USD per kg), the highest since March 2023 [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration signed a domestic processing contract with MP Materials in July, ensuring a minimum price nearly double the market level at that time, along with support measures for NdPr production [4] - Recent price increases have helped revive demand, with a projected 10% growth in demand this year, while China's production is expected to grow only modestly by 5% [4] - The current demand surge in China for EVs, wind turbines, and home appliances is putting further pressure on the supply-demand balance for NdPr [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for precious metals due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates as early as September. This is seen as a strong signal for gold prices to rise, supported by a weakening dollar and increasing gold-silver ratios [4][5]. - Industrial metal prices show mixed performance, with copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel experiencing slight declines. However, significant infrastructure projects in Tibet are anticipated to boost overall demand and metal prices [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for small metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are also noted for price increases, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates a favorable outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, in light of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for industrial metals have varied, with copper at 78,690 CNY/ton (-0.3%), aluminum at 20,630 CNY/ton (-0.4%), and nickel at 119,610 CNY/ton (-1.3%). The report notes a general decline in prices but anticipates demand recovery from infrastructure projects [27][28]. 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for rare earths, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased significantly, with a weekly rise of 15.6% [29]. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, reflecting increased demand in manufacturing [32]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have increased, with lithium concentrate priced at 7,155 CNY/ton. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring future demand for energy metals [35]. 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.33% increase, with specific segments like small metals rising by 10.53% [36]. 3. Key Events Review - The report highlights a significant dovish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, indicating potential interest rate cuts, which could positively impact precious metals [42].

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector, including tungsten and rare earths, is experiencing significant price increases driven by supply changes and emerging demand growth, with a sustained upward price trend expected in the future [5][6]. Group 1: Price Trends and Data - As of August 21, the average price of cobalt is reported at 26.3 yuan/ton, up over 50% since the beginning of the year [5]. - Tungsten concentrate prices are at 218,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 52% increase year-to-date [5]. - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is around 650,000 yuan/ton, also up over 50% since the start of the year [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the supply-demand imbalance in the small metals market is unlikely to change significantly in the near term, supporting continued price increases [5][6]. - The demand for small metals is expanding, while supply disruptions due to policy changes are contributing to the price rise [6]. Group 3: Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth is expected to see a year-on-year increase in net profit of over 2000% for the first half of the year [5]. - Shenghe Resources anticipates a year-on-year net profit growth of over 600% for the same period [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market consensus is that the price centers for cobalt and antimony are expected to rise, supported by high penetration rates of dual-motor electric vehicles [5]. - The tungsten market is viewed positively in the short term due to demand for restocking and export recovery, while long-term supply issues are expected to drive tungsten prices higher [6].

Group 1 - The stock price of Shenghe Resources closed at 23.25 yuan on August 21, 2025, down 2.35% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 4.231 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 10.15% [1] - Shenghe Resources' main business includes rare earth mining, smelting separation, and deep processing, with products widely used in new energy and new materials sectors [1] - The company is part of the small metals and Sichuan concept sectors [1] Group 2 - Rare earth prices have been on the rise this year, with the average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by over 50% since the beginning of the year [1] - Shenghe Resources expects a year-on-year net profit growth of over 600% for the first half of the year, indicating strong performance [1] - On August 21, there was a net outflow of 410 million yuan in main funds, with a cumulative net outflow of 1.481 billion yuan over the past five days [1]