证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 本周行业延续跌势，轻稀土链价格回升 相关研究： | 《本周行业继续调整，产业链价格短期转 | | --- | | 弱》 20251116 | | 《本周行业表现延续弱势，轻重稀土价格走 | | 势分化》 20251109 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -12 -9 46 绝对收益 -15 -5 57 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场行情：本周稀土磁材行业下跌 5.29%，跑输基准 1.52 pct 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业下跌 5.29%，跑输基准（沪深 300）1.52 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回落 3.97x 至 69.94x，当前处于 84.1%2历 史分位。 ❑ 本周轻稀土精矿价格回升，中重 ...

2025年11月20日盘中，稀土板块盘中强势上扬，截至10:19，中证稀土产业指数强势上涨1.63%，成分股 盛新锂能上涨9.99%，广晟有色上涨6.72%，格林美上涨4.10%，科力远，中钢天源等个股跟涨。 消息面上，11月19日国内轻稀土市场价格走势上涨，金属镨钕价格为67万元/吨，镨钕氧化物价格上涨 2500元/吨至54.25万元/吨，氧化钕价格上涨2500元/吨至58.75万元/吨，金属钕价格上涨5000元/吨至70万 元/吨，金属镨价格上涨5000元/吨至73万元/吨，氧化镨价格上涨2500元/吨至55.5万元/吨，国内轻稀土 价格走势上涨。 国投证券表示，今年7~9月磁材出口均同比正增长，未来国内外需求增长是趋势。我们认为更应该关注 稀土供给端的变化，白名单制度或年内落地，预计推动稀土价格新一轮上涨，北稀和包钢公告上调四季 度稀土精矿价格，看好后市价格上涨。 场外投资者还可以通过稀土ETF嘉实联接基金（011036）把握稀土投资机遇。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证稀土产业指数前十大权重股分别为北方稀土、卧龙电驱、领益智 造、中国稀土、厦门钨业、中国铝业、盛和资源、金风科技、包钢股份、 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Rare Earth ETF" and "Rare Metal ETF" by Jiashi Fund has transformed the value logic of scarce resources into tradable products, allowing ordinary investors to access investment opportunities in the global industrial chain restructuring [1][3] - As of October 2025, the Rare Earth ETF and Rare Metal ETF have seen significant price increases of 81% and 76% respectively, outperforming many other ETFs in the market [1] - The third-quarter profits for the Rare Earth ETF and Rare Metal ETF were reported at 1.634 billion and 542 million respectively [1] Group 1: Scarcity and Strategic Importance - Rare resources are gaining attention due to their dual labels of "scarcity" and "strategic importance," serving as the "blood" of the new energy industry and the "core" of high-end manufacturing [3] - The demand for rare metals is driven by emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and aerospace, which are experiencing high growth [5][8] Group 2: ETF Composition and Investment Focus - The Rare Earth ETF focuses on rare earth elements, while the Rare Metal ETF encompasses a broader category of metals, including lithium, titanium, and tungsten [4][6] - The investment focus of the Rare Metal ETF is on emerging industries, while the Rare Earth ETF emphasizes the irreplaceability of rare earth elements in high-tech industries [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The prices of key rare earth products have been rising significantly, with some experiencing price increases of 60%-90% this year, indicating a "golden era" for the rare earth sector [7] - China's export controls on rare earth technologies are tightening, further emphasizing the strategic importance of these resources in national security [7][8] - The demand for high-performance rare metal materials is expected to continue rising, particularly in sectors like satellite manufacturing and deep-sea exploration [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various sectors with their respective valuation metrics [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks A-share valuations and industry sentiment, indicating that the overall market is experiencing varied valuation levels across different indices and sectors [1][2]. - Key sectors such as real estate, steel, and IT services are noted for their high PE ratios, suggesting potential overvaluation, while white goods are highlighted as undervalued [1][2]. Valuation Comparisons - The report provides a detailed comparison of PE and PB ratios across major indices, with the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.3x and PB at 1.8x, indicating historical percentiles of 79% and 39% respectively [1][4][5]. - The report identifies industries with PE ratios above the historical 85th percentile, including real estate, steel, and IT services, while white goods are noted for being below the 15th percentile [1][7]. Industry Sentiment Tracking - **New Energy**: The report notes a slight decline in downstream prices for photovoltaic products, while upstream polysilicon prices have increased by 6.3%. The demand for lithium materials remains strong due to stable orders in the traditional peak season [1][2]. - **Real Estate Chain**: Steel prices have decreased, with rebar prices down by 1.7% and iron ore prices down by 1.4%. Cement prices are also under pressure due to insufficient demand [2]. - **Consumer Goods**: Pork prices have seen a slight decline, while liquor prices have stabilized. Agricultural products like corn and wheat have mixed price movements [2]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: Excavator sales have increased by 25.4% year-on-year, driven by infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades. Heavy truck sales have surged by 82.9% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand [2]. - **Cyclical Industries**: The report highlights fluctuations in metal prices due to geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, with precious metals seeing significant price increases [2]. Key Industry Valuations - The report lists specific industry valuations, with real estate at a PE of 120.0 and a PB of 16.6, indicating a high valuation relative to historical norms. In contrast, the white goods sector has a PE of 10.4, suggesting it is undervalued [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth to raise the associated transaction price of rare earth concentrates for Q4 2025 indicates a significant upward trend in the rare earth market, reflecting a recovery in profitability for the industry [1][5]. Price Adjustment - The proposed adjustment for Q4 2025 is set at 26,205 yuan/ton (excluding tax), which is an increase of 7,096 yuan/ton or 37.13% compared to the Q3 2025 price of 19,109 yuan/ton [5][6]. - This marks the fifth consecutive increase in rare earth concentrate prices, with previous quarterly prices showing a consistent upward trend over the last five quarters [5][6]. Historical Price Data - Historical prices for rare earth concentrates over the past quarters are as follows: - Q3 2025: 19,109 yuan/ton - Q2 2025: 18,825 yuan/ton - Q1 2025: 18,618 yuan/ton - Q4 2024: 17,782 yuan/ton - Q3 2024: 16,741 yuan/ton - Q2 2024: 16,792 yuan/ton - Q1 2024: 20,737 yuan/ton [6]. Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [6]. - The company also anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 1.33 billion to 1.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 399.90% to 422.46% [6]. Market Trends - The A-share rare earth index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 100%, with stocks like Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Huahong Technology, and Guangsheng Nonferrous doubling in value [7]. - The overall market demand for rare earths has improved, supported by stable domestic demand, leading to a recovery in prices and profitability for related companies [10][12]. Profitability Recovery - The rare earth industry is experiencing a profitability turning point, with companies like Northern Rare Earth reporting significant increases in gross margins and sales volumes for key products [10][12]. - The average profit growth rate for selected companies in the sector has reached 723%, with Northern Rare Earth's net profit growth reaching 1,952% [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increase of rare earth minerals due to recent export controls by the Chinese government and the response from the U.S., leading to a surge in market interest and discussions among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase of Rare Earth Minerals - On October 10, both Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announced a price increase for rare earth concentrates, with a historical surge of 37% [4][5]. - The price for rare earth concentrates is set at 26,205 yuan/ton (excluding tax) for Q4 2025, with adjustments based on the REO percentage [4][5]. - The price has been raised five times in the past quarters, with previous prices ranging from 16,741 yuan/ton to 19,109 yuan/ton, showing a consistent upward trend [6]. Group 2: Factors Behind Price Surge - The price increase is attributed to a combination of supply constraints, policy changes, and rising demand [11]. - Supply has tightened due to halted imports from the U.S. and reduced imports from Myanmar, alongside production issues at the Grasberg copper mine [11]. - Recent export controls by the Chinese government aim to protect national security and manage the strategic resource's supply [11]. - Demand for rare earth materials is growing due to expansions in high-end manufacturing sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [11]. Group 3: Industry Profitability Turning Point - The rare earth industry is experiencing a significant recovery, with Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit of 1.51 to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 272% to 287% [14][16]. - The average prices for praseodymium and neodymium metals have risen by 11.9% and 12.7% year-on-year, respectively, supporting the profitability of companies in the sector [14]. - Northern Rare Earth's sales volume for rare earth metal products increased by 32.33%, indicating a recovery in market activity [16]. Group 4: Investor Discussions - The news has led to increased discussions among investors regarding the rare earth cycle and the potential for a profitability turning point [20]. - Investors are optimistic about Northern Rare Earth's performance, citing the potential for profits to exceed previous highs due to increased demand and favorable market conditions [21]. - There are concerns about the balance between price increases and profit margins, with discussions on how rising costs may impact overall profitability [22].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Baogang Co. and Northern Rare Earth indicates an increase in the associated transaction price for rare earth concentrates for Q4 2025, reflecting a significant upward trend in pricing within the industry [1][5]. Price Adjustment - The new price for rare earth concentrates is set at 26,205 yuan/ton (excluding tax), which is an increase of 7,096 yuan/ton or 37.13% compared to the price of 19,109 yuan/ton in Q3 2025 [5]. - This marks the fifth consecutive increase in the transaction price of rare earth concentrates, with previous quarterly prices showing a consistent upward trend [5][6]. Historical Price Data - Historical prices for rare earth concentrates over the past five quarters are as follows: - Q3 2025: 19,109 yuan/ton - Q2 2025: 18,825 yuan/ton - Q1 2025: 18,618 yuan/ton - Q4 2024: 17,782 yuan/ton - Q3 2024: 16,741 yuan/ton - Q2 2024: 16,792 yuan/ton - Q1 2024: 20,737 yuan/ton [6]. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for rare earth concentrates has been in place for over two years, allowing for quarterly adjustments based on a predetermined formula [7]. - The management team calculates and adjusts the prices at the beginning of each quarter, ensuring that the pricing remains aligned with market conditions [7]. Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth has projected a net profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [7]. - The company also expects a non-recurring net profit of 1.33 billion to 1.39 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 399.90% to 422.46% [7]. Market Trends - The rare earth industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with improved market conditions compared to the previous year [9]. - The average prices for praseodymium and neodymium metals have increased by 11.9% and 12.7% respectively in the first half of the year, indicating a positive trend in demand and pricing [10]. - Northern Rare Earth reported significant growth in sales volumes across its main product lines, with praseodymium and neodymium product sales reaching historical highs [10][11]. Profitability Recovery - Northern Rare Earth has ended a two-year decline in profitability, with other companies in the sector also showing similar recovery trends [12]. - The average profit growth rate for four major companies, including Northern Rare Earth, has reached 723%, with Northern Rare Earth alone seeing a staggering increase of 1,952% in net profit [14].

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with the price of rare earth concentrate set to rise to 26,205 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, marking a 37.13% increase from the previous quarter's price of 19,109 yuan/ton [5][6]. Price Adjustment Mechanism - The price adjustment mechanism for rare earth concentrate has been in place for over two years, with quarterly adjustments based on a pricing formula agreed upon by Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel [6]. - The prices for the past five quarters were as follows: 17,741 yuan/ton, 17,782 yuan/ton, 18,618 yuan/ton, 18,825 yuan/ton, and 19,109 yuan/ton, with respective quarter-on-quarter increases of 6.2%, 4.7%, 1.1%, 1.5% [6]. Industry Performance - The rare earth industry is showing improved profitability, with Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [6]. - The overall market demand for rare earths remains strong, with significant price increases in key products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxides, which saw average prices rise by 11.9% and 12.7% respectively in the first half of the year [10]. Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth reported a gross margin increase of 4.32 percentage points to 12.28%, while Guangsheng Nonferrous's gross margin rose by 5.1 percentage points to 6.4% [10]. - The sales volume of rare earth products for Northern Rare Earth reached historical highs, with a 32.33% increase in rare earth metal product sales and a 17.93% increase in functional materials sales [10]. Market Trends - The A-share rare earth index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 100%, with stocks like Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, and Huahong Technology doubling in value [7]. - Despite a recent decline in stock prices for Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth, the overall market sentiment remains positive due to the anticipated continued improvement in profitability for the second half of the year [7][11].

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Performance - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 4.11% and a transaction volume of 340 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 559 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's scale increased by 23.8 million yuan in the past week, with a total share growth of 94.5 million shares this month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the last 10 trading days, the Rare Earth ETF attracted a total of 180 million yuan in inflows [3] - As of September 15, the fund's net value has increased by 124.59% over the past year, placing it in the top 3.12% among 3013 index equity funds [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 4 months and a maximum increase of 83.89% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Demand Drivers - The average spot prices for praseodymium and neodymium metals were 540,000 yuan/ton and 441,000 yuan/ton respectively in the first half of the year, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 12.7% [4] - Demand for rare earth materials is rapidly growing due to policies promoting "carbon neutrality," as well as the recovery in traditional manufacturing and the acceleration of humanoid robot deployment [4] - Guojin Securities believes that the rare earth sector may enter a third phase of supply-side reform, with significant increases in magnetic material exports observed in July, up 75% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year [4] - The combination of price increases, supply-side reforms, and supply disruptions is expected to enhance the strategic attributes of the rare earth sector, leading to a dual increase in valuation and performance [4] Group 3: Key Stocks and Weightings - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for a total of 62.15%, including Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Lingyi Zhi Zao, and others [3] - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth down 4.76% and China Rare Earth down 4.67%, with respective weights of 13.22% and 5.63% [6]