1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index has declined, and the non - ferrous metals sector has strengthened. With the increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, copper prices are expected to be strong; zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities; nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and face long - term supply surplus pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9][81][183][184] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing prices of various non - ferrous metals are monitored, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals show different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.8, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%; the price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [5][6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Bullish. Trump's actions and Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the upcoming US non - farm data may further boost this expectation [9] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The spot processing fee of copper ore remains low, and the port inventory has increased [9] - **Smelting End**: Slightly bullish. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed, and the profits of those using long - term contracts have increased. The electrolytic copper output in September may decline [9] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The copper rod开工率 has declined slightly, but it is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [9] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The copper inventory shows an internal decrease and external increase trend, and the global visible inventory is relatively stable [9] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies**: Bullish on copper prices. In the short term, it is expected to be strong. The trading strategy includes unilateral long - term and internal - external positive arbitrage [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Bullish. The US GDP has been revised upwards, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The overall macro sentiment has improved, but the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm is uncertain [81] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee is stable, and the imported processing fee index has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased, but the refinery's purchasing enthusiasm is not high [81] - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The output in August is expected to be high, and the output in September may decline slightly due to some refinery overhauls [81] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal demand is in the off - season but has resilience. The export of galvanized sheets may decline [81] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and the internal and external inventory differentiation has deepened [81] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities. Unilateral long - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [81] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly bullish. The US core PCE is slightly higher than the previous value, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has increased, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector [183][184] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The Indonesian nickel ore premium is stable, and the domestic port inventory has increased. The nickel iron price has rebounded, and the MHP coefficient has increased [183][184] - **Smelting End**: Slightly bullish. The pure nickel output is high, and the stainless steel production is expected to increase [183][184] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand in the new energy sector is high [183][184] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The domestic social inventory has decreased slightly [183][184] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Nickel**: Bullish in the short term, with long - term supply surplus pressure. Unilateral range - bound operation and wait - and - see for arbitrage [183] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to fluctuate widely. Unilateral wait - and - see or short - selling at high prices and no arbitrage [184]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - environment is weak, demand is marginally weakening, downstream construction has declined, and demand has entered the off - season with insufficient downstream acceptance. However, the copper smelting end is tight, and the shutdown of a copper mine in Congo has increased supply - side disturbances. Under the game of long and short forces, the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, moved low, and closed down today. The shutdown of a large copper mine in Congo due to an earthquake and the withdrawal of its 2025 production forecast have deepened the expectation of a tight supply at the mine end [1]. - As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC was - 4.44 cents per pound. Although the decline has significantly slowed, the market still expects a tight supply. In April, the domestic refined copper production was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. The actual supply has not weakened [1]. - Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper, and the demand has decreased month - on - month. Except for the real estate sector, the terminal demand is still good. As of the end of April, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened low, moved low, and closed down at 78,210. The long positions of the top 20 were 108,529 lots, an increase of 6,144 lots; the short positions were 110,516 lots, an increase of 5,989 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 145 yuan per ton, and in South China was 220 yuan per ton. On May 23, 2025, the LME official price was 9,565 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 30 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.30 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.44 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 162,200 tons, a slight decrease of 2,575 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 175,600 short tons, an increase of 1,024 short tons from the previous period [9].

【冠通研究】 宏观利好注入，市场情绪转好 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 13 日 【期现行情】 期货方面：高开低走低震荡收涨。报收于 78090 元/吨，前二十名净多单 120750 手，-4809 手；空单量 112949 手，-2404 手。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-25 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 45 元/吨。2025 年 5 月 12 日，LME 官方价 9546 美元/吨，现货升贴水 44 美元/吨。 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 华东阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 华南阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The market sentiment is cautious, and the non - ferrous metals sector is oscillating. For copper, although there are some positive trade news, the upward momentum of copper prices is weak after a recent rebound. For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains, and zinc prices are under pressure in the short term. For nickel, it is expected to be strong in the short term, but there is still pressure of supply surplus in the long term [8][88][206]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Non - ferrous Metals Price Monitoring - Various non - ferrous metals have different price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 100.4 with a daily decline of 0.21%, a weekly increase of 0.38%, and an annual decline of 7.43%. Industrial silicon is at 8,205 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.32%, a weekly decline of 3.92%, and an annual decline of 25.31% [5]. 02. Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are neutral to bearish due to China's monetary policies, the Fed's stance, and Sino - US talks. The raw material end is bullish as copper mine processing fees decline and port inventories increase. The smelting end is neutral with increased losses for smelters. The demand end is neutral with fluctuating downstream demand. The inventory is bullish as domestic copper inventories decrease [8]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The structural squeeze - out market of Shanghai copper continues, and the import window is opened periodically. The refined copper output is increasing, while the copper rod processing fee is declining, and the copper rod production rate is changing [13][24][52]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is oscillating to bearish. The trading strategy is to be short - term bearish for unilateral trading and no arbitrage [8]. 03. Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are bearish considering China's trade data, the Fed's decision, and domestic policies. The raw material end is neutral with changes in processing fees and inventory. The smelting end is neutral with a slight reduction in supply. The demand end is bearish as downstream demand is weak. The inventory is bullish as the social inventory increase during the festival is limited [88]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - Zinc prices are weakening due to the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations. The domestic processing fee is increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the refined zinc import window is opened [90][106]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to be bearish for unilateral trading and wait - and - see for arbitrage [88]. 04. Nickel (NI) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are neutral with China's policies and the Fed's stance. The raw material end is bullish with the impact of policies and inventory changes. The smelting end is neutral with different production situations of various nickel products. The demand end is neutral to bearish as stainless steel production is reduced and the new - energy demand has its own characteristics. The inventory is neutral with a slight decline [206]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - The news of the Philippines' potential nickel - mining ban has affected the market, and nickel prices rose sharply on Friday night. Nickel - iron prices have dropped significantly, and the prices of other related products also have certain changes [208][225]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is short - term bullish. The trading strategy is to conduct short - term range trading for unilateral trading and go long on nickel and short on stainless steel for arbitrage [206].