Group 1 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a supply surplus of approximately 178,000 tons in the global refined copper market by 2025, followed by a shift to a supply deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026 [1] - Global copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and accelerate to 2.3% in 2026, while refined copper consumption is projected to increase by about 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 [1] - Refined copper production is anticipated to rise by 3.4% in 2025, but the growth rate will slow to 0.9% in 2026 [1] Group 2 - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent landslide incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has led to a significant disruption in copper supply, causing a sharp increase in copper prices globally [2][3][4]. Group 1: Incident Details - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines in the world, experienced a major landslide on September 8, resulting in the entrapment of seven workers and the subsequent suspension of operations [2]. - As of September 24, two of the trapped workers have been confirmed dead, while efforts continue to rescue the remaining five [2]. - The Grasberg mine was transitioning from open-pit to underground mining and had recently ramped up production capacity before the incident [2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Impact - Freeport McMoRan has officially lowered its production guidance, indicating that it will not meet its original sales target of 445 million pounds (approximately 200,000 tons) of copper for Q4 this year [3]. - The company has reduced its 2026 production target from 1.7 billion pounds to 1.1 billion pounds, a 35% decrease, and expects the mine's actual output this year to be around 500,000 tons [3]. - The incident is expected to exacerbate the existing tight supply conditions in the copper market, with potential supply shortages projected to increase over the next two years [3][4]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The copper industry has seen an increase in supply disruptions globally, with other mines also facing operational challenges, leading to a potential decline in copper concentrate supply by over 5% this year [4]. - Analysts predict that the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) may revise its copper concentrate production forecasts downward due to the recent incidents [4]. - The supply-demand balance for copper is expected to shift towards a tighter market, particularly with the ongoing issues at the Grasberg mine and other global supply challenges [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge in international copper prices, driven by the unexpected production halt at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine due to a significant landslide, has intensified concerns over future copper supply shortages and led to volatility in the futures and securities markets [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market Impact - On September 24, LME copper prices rose sharply, returning to the $10,000 per ton level, following the announcement of the Grasberg mine's production issues [1][6]. - Grasberg is the world's second-largest copper mine, with a projected 2024 output of 816,000 tons, accounting for approximately 3.6% of global copper production [1][4]. - Freeport-McMoRan anticipates a 35% reduction in Grasberg's output for 2026 compared to previous estimates, with recovery expected only by 2027 [1][4]. Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - Freeport-McMoRan's stock plummeted nearly 17% on September 24, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $11 billion [2][7]. - Conversely, other copper producers like Southern Copper and Zijin Mining saw significant stock price increases, benefiting from the rising copper prices [2][8]. - As of September 25, Zijin Mining's market capitalization reached $100 billion [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The Grasberg incident, which occurred on September 8, did not initially impact copper prices until Freeport updated its production forecasts on September 24 [4]. - The anticipated production delays could shift the global copper market from a state of supply-demand balance to a supply shortage by 2026 [4][5]. - UBS forecasts a shift from a slight surplus in 2025 to a significant deficit of 421,000 tons in refined copper in 2026 due to the Grasberg production halt [5]. Group 4: Broader Market Trends - The copper market has faced multiple supply disruptions this year, including strikes in Chile and seismic events affecting other major mines [6][5]. - The recent price surge has attracted increased trading activity in related stocks, with Zijin Mining's trading volume reaching a record high of 10.7 billion yuan on September 25 [11]. - Despite the stock price increases, the overall valuation of Chinese copper companies remains lower than that of their international counterparts, such as Southern Copper [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in international copper prices, attributed to the unexpected production halt at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine due to a major landslide, has intensified supply concerns in an already tight copper market [1][4][6]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, is expected to see a 35% reduction in its 2026 production forecast, with a return to pre-incident levels not anticipated until 2027 [1][6]. - The incident has exacerbated existing supply-demand tensions in the copper market, with forecasts indicating a potential shift from a balanced supply-demand scenario to a supply deficit in 2026 [6][10]. Market Reactions - Following the news of the Grasberg incident, Freeport-McMoRan's stock plummeted nearly 17%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of approximately $11 billion (about 78.41 billion RMB) [1][10]. - In contrast, other copper producers like Southern Copper and Zijin Mining have seen their stock prices rise significantly, benefiting from the increased copper prices and market speculation [10][12]. Price Movements - The LME copper price surged by 3.46% on the day of the incident's disclosure, reaching a high of $10,000 per ton, marking the highest level since May 2024 [8][10]. - Domestic copper futures and electrolytic copper prices also rose by over 3%, nearing 82,000 RMB per ton [8][14]. Performance of Copper Companies - Zijin Mining's market capitalization has surpassed $100 billion, reflecting strong performance amid rising copper prices [2]. - Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum have reported over 50% growth in net profit year-on-year, indicating robust financial health and potential for further profit increases [12][14]. Valuation Comparisons - Despite the strong performance of A-share copper companies, their valuation levels remain lower compared to international peers like Southern Copper, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum trading at price-to-earnings ratios of approximately 15 and 17, respectively [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant rise in international copper prices, driven by the unexpected production halt at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine due to a major landslide, has created volatility in the copper market and affected various companies differently [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - On September 24, LME copper prices surged back to the $10,000 per ton level, marking a notable increase of 3.46% in a single day [1][13]. - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, is expected to see a 35% reduction in its 2026 production forecast, leading to heightened concerns about copper supply shortages [3][8]. - Freeport-McMoRan's stock plummeted nearly 17% on September 24, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $11 billion [4][14]. Group 2: Company Performance - Other copper producers, such as Southern Copper and Zijin Mining, experienced significant stock price increases, with Zijin Mining's market capitalization reaching $100 billion [5][6]. - The Grasberg incident has led to increased trading volumes for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with Zijin's trading volume hitting 10.7 billion yuan on September 25 [20]. - Despite the overall rise in copper prices, the valuation of Chinese copper companies remains lower compared to their international counterparts, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum's P/E ratios at 15 and 17, respectively, compared to Southern Copper's 25 [20]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance, with a projected 1.4% increase in copper mine production against a 3.8% increase in refined copper demand for 2025 [9]. - UBS forecasts that the refined copper market will shift from a slight surplus of 26,700 tons in 2025 to a shortage of 42,100 tons in 2026 due to the Grasberg production halt [9]. - The ongoing supply disruptions in major copper-producing regions, including strikes and accidents, have been a recurring theme affecting copper prices [11][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident of Freeport - McMoRan Inc. in Indonesia has a significant impact on the global copper market. It will lead to a reduction in copper production and sales in 2025 - 2026, further lower the global copper concentrate balance sheet, and affect the price trend of copper. Attention should be paid to the capital's allocation interest in the copper market [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Incident Introduction - On the evening of September 24, Freeport - McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at its large mine Grasberg Block Cave in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose before the night - session opening and hit a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year. The weighted position of SHFE copper increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8. The mine is basically in a shutdown state, and the accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second - largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport - McMoRan Inc. currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2%. The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. In 2024, the copper sales of this mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output and about 3.3% of the world's copper concentrate output in 2024 [1] Impact of the Accident on Mine Sales - In 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrates. FCX's project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine has been tortuous. The Manyar smelter was put into production in May 2025 and produced output in July. The Gresik smelter had an oxygen - making accident and shut down in summer. As of the first quarter of this year, there was a large amount of concentrate inventory, which affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper output of this mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons. In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. The original sales forecast for 2025 was 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons), but it was later lowered to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons). After the accident, the production target of the Grasberg copper mine was lowered. The overall sales target of 445 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) in the fourth quarter of Indonesia's Freeport could not be completed. The 2026 production target was directly lowered from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), and the actual copper production in Indonesia's Freeport this year may only be about 500,000 tons [2][3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Sheet - In 2025, the accidents of major mines around the world were very serious. The annual copper concentrate supply loss rate may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport in Indonesia. The ICSG may lower the expected increase of global copper concentrates in 2025 from nearly 500,000 tons to 100,000 - ton level, and the increase in 2026 will also be affected. The specific production resumption rhythm of the 330,000 - ton - level Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum becomes crucial. The annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will be in a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose at night, fully digesting short - term supply - side events. Technically, LME copper has the potential to break through the chart upwards, but attention should be paid to the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of SHFE copper weighted increased sharply, but the total position was not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 - point mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 101,000 tons for January to July 2025, a decrease from a surplus of 401,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper production for January to July 2025 reached 16.565 million tons, up from 15.944 million tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper consumption for January to July 2025 was 16.464 million tons, compared to 15.543 million tons in the previous year [1] Production and Consumption Data - In July 2025, global refined copper production was 2.5 million tons, while consumption was 2.441 million tons, indicating a surplus of 57,000 tons [1] - The global copper mine production for January to July 2025 was 13.477 million tons, an increase from 13.039 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The global copper smelting capacity utilization rate was 82% in 2025, consistent with previous years [1] Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - The global refined copper ending inventory for 2025 was reported at 1.371 million tons, showing a decrease from 1.523 million tons in 2024 [1] - The refined copper supply-demand balance for 2025 indicated a surplus of 101,000 tons, a significant improvement from a deficit of 359,000 tons in 2021 [1] - Seasonal adjustments to the refined copper supply-demand balance showed a surplus of 261,000 tons for 2025 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper product enterprises in August. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the transition from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the initial decline in the global electrolytic copper inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the active contract on dips and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The closing price on August 22, 2025, was 78,690, up 150 from the previous day. The trading volume was 37,910 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,132 lots. The inventory was 24,148 tons, down 1,009 tons [2]. - **SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price**: It was 78,830 on August 22, 2025, up 30 from the previous day [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis**: The basis was 260 on August 22, 2025, up 120 from the previous day. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions showed different trends [2]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: The closing price on August 21, 2025, was 9,724.5, up 4 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 155,975 tons, down 375 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract on August 22, 2025, was 4.433, up 0.03 from the previous day. The total inventory was 271,482 tons [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Supply - demand**: In June 2025, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 86,000 tons. From January to June 2025, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with 395,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. The global refined copper production from January to June 2025 was 1.4212 billion tons, and the consumption was 1.396 billion tons [2]. - **Domestic Downstream Industry**: The processing fee of fine copper rods for East China power and enameled wires increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rates of different copper product industries in China showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the capacity utilization rate of fine copper rods increased, while that of copper wire and cable decreased [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategy Investors are suggested to try to go long on the active contract on dips. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels: for Shanghai copper, the support is around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance is around 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, the support is around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance is around 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, the support is around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance is around 4.6 - 5.0 [2].

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper production for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 14.212 million tons, an increase from 13.716 million tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper consumption for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 13.960 million tons, up from 13.321 million tons in the same period last year [1] Production and Consumption Data - In June 2025, global refined copper production was 2.431 million tons, while consumption was 2.395 million tons [2] - The global copper mine production for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 11.438 million tons, compared to 11.134 million tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - The global refined copper production capacity utilization rate is projected to be 79% for the first half of 2025 [2] Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - The global refined copper ending inventory is expected to be 1.310 million tons by the end of 2025 [2] - The adjusted refined copper supply-demand balance indicates a surplus of 248,000 tons for the first half of 2025 [2] - The inventory change during the period shows a decrease of 88,000 tons for the first half of 2025 [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - environment is weak, demand is marginally weakening, downstream construction has declined, and demand has entered the off - season with insufficient downstream acceptance. However, the copper smelting end is tight, and the shutdown of a copper mine in Congo has increased supply - side disturbances. Under the game of long and short forces, the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, moved low, and closed down today. The shutdown of a large copper mine in Congo due to an earthquake and the withdrawal of its 2025 production forecast have deepened the expectation of a tight supply at the mine end [1]. - As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC was - 4.44 cents per pound. Although the decline has significantly slowed, the market still expects a tight supply. In April, the domestic refined copper production was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. The actual supply has not weakened [1]. - Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper, and the demand has decreased month - on - month. Except for the real estate sector, the terminal demand is still good. As of the end of April, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened low, moved low, and closed down at 78,210. The long positions of the top 20 were 108,529 lots, an increase of 6,144 lots; the short positions were 110,516 lots, an increase of 5,989 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 145 yuan per ton, and in South China was 220 yuan per ton. On May 23, 2025, the LME official price was 9,565 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 30 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.30 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.44 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 162,200 tons, a slight decrease of 2,575 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 175,600 short tons, an increase of 1,024 short tons from the previous period [9].