沪铜日评20250825: 国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | 变量名称 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | 2025-08-22 | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-14 | 收盘价 | 78690 | 150.00 | 78540 | 78950 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交量(手) | 37910 | 43058 | 51734 | -5.148.00 | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | -7,132.00 | 120902 | 128034 | 152341 | | 库存(吨) | 241 48 | 25157 | 24434 | -1.009.00 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78830 | 78800 | 79435 | 30. 00 | | | 沪铜基差 | 260 | 140 | 485 | -120.00 | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 厂州电解铜现货升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 0. 00 | | (现货与期货 ...

8月21日（周四），国际铜业研究组织（ICSG）在最新公布的月度报告中称，2025年1-6月全球铜市为供应过剩25.1万吨，上年同期为供应过剩39.5万吨。 6月份全球精炼铜产量为243万吨，消费量为240万吨。 具体情况如下： | | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (单位为1,000吨) | | | | | 1-6月 | | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | | 全球铜矿产里 | 21, 223 | 21,911 | 22, 368 | 22, 990 | 11,134 | 11, 438 | 1,965 | 1,917 | 1,997 | 1,916 | | 全球铜矿产能 | 25, 942 | 26, 463 | 27, 440 | 28, 494 | 14,038 | 14,532 | 2, 485 | 2, 412 | 2, 500 | 2, 42 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - environment is weak, demand is marginally weakening, downstream construction has declined, and demand has entered the off - season with insufficient downstream acceptance. However, the copper smelting end is tight, and the shutdown of a copper mine in Congo has increased supply - side disturbances. Under the game of long and short forces, the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, moved low, and closed down today. The shutdown of a large copper mine in Congo due to an earthquake and the withdrawal of its 2025 production forecast have deepened the expectation of a tight supply at the mine end [1]. - As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC was - 4.44 cents per pound. Although the decline has significantly slowed, the market still expects a tight supply. In April, the domestic refined copper production was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. The actual supply has not weakened [1]. - Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper, and the demand has decreased month - on - month. Except for the real estate sector, the terminal demand is still good. As of the end of April, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened low, moved low, and closed down at 78,210. The long positions of the top 20 were 108,529 lots, an increase of 6,144 lots; the short positions were 110,516 lots, an increase of 5,989 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 145 yuan per ton, and in South China was 220 yuan per ton. On May 23, 2025, the LME official price was 9,565 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 30 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.30 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.44 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 162,200 tons, a slight decrease of 2,575 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 175,600 short tons, an increase of 1,024 short tons from the previous period [9].

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a surplus in the copper market by 2025, raising questions about whether Asian demand can provide necessary support [1] - The evolution of supply and demand balance in the copper market is a critical focus, with implications for pricing and investment strategies [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - ICSG forecasts a significant shift in the copper market, indicating that supply may outpace demand by 2025 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of Asian demand in potentially mitigating the surplus situation [1] Market Implications - The anticipated surplus could lead to downward pressure on copper prices, affecting companies and investors in the mining and metals sector [1] - Stakeholders are advised to monitor Asian market trends closely, as they may play a pivotal role in shaping future demand dynamics [1]