1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock, cautious long - position [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious and wait - and - see [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US employment data is better than expected, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines, and global risk appetite cools significantly. Domestically, China's October economic data slows down year - on - year and falls short of expectations, and the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Equities, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors are mainly in a short - term shock state, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: US September non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the unemployment rate rises to a four - year high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation further declines. China's October economic data slows down and falls short of expectations. The central bank releases liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals suppress global risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock [2]. - **Equities**: Affected by sectors such as silicon energy, military, and coal, the domestic stock market falls. Due to weak economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive weakens, and equities are in short - term shock. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3]. - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls exceed expectations, the prospect of a December interest - rate cut weakens, and precious metals prices weaken in the short term. They are in short - term shock, and the long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continue to weaken. Although demand improves slightly, supply increases, and the price has no room for a sharp decline or a significant rise in the short term. Treat it with an interval - shock mindset [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices weaken slightly. The key factor determining the price is the decline process and the bottom - reaching time of hot - metal production. Short - term interval - shock [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron falls, and that of silicon manganese remains flat. The futures prices are expected to continue interval - shock [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreases marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda recovers slightly. Short - term interval - shock, long - term bearish [7]. - **Glass**: The glass production remains stable, and the demand improves marginally. The downstream demand is still weak, and the inventory is high. Short - term weak operation [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined - copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the futures price. There is a risk of a downward break in the short term [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum falls slightly. Although the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices, the inventory is still high. The aluminum shortage is a false proposition, and the price may have a large correction. Short - term shock [9]. - **Tin**: The supply side recovers from overhauls, but the mine supply is tight. The demand side is weak in the peak season. The tin price is at a historical high, and the actual trading activity is insufficient. Short - and medium - term high - level interval - shock [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rises. The exchange strengthens risk control. Short - term cautious long - position or wait - and - see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon falls. Organic silicon monomer factories plan to jointly reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuity of funds and buy on dips [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon falls. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. Expected to be in a high - level interval - shock [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: If a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia and energy sanctions are lifted, Russian oil supply will return to the market. Due to better - than - expected non - farm data and a lower Fed interest - rate cut probability, oil prices are under pressure and will remain weakly volatile [15]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices fall, and the asphalt futures price is approaching last year's low. The social and factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the over - supply pressure is high [15]. - **PX**: Crude oil falls slightly, and PX has limited upward momentum. It can still get some demand support. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by PX, PTA rebounds, but the supply is still high, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The long - term bearish pressure is large [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory accumulates significantly, and the downstream demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain in low - level interval - shock [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber rebounds slightly following the polyester sector, but the future pressure is large. The terminal orders are seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly increasing [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Commodity funds sell soybean futures contracts. The US faces competition from Brazilian soybeans in exports but has some support from sales to China. South American soybean planting is affected by floods [17][18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean and soybean - meal supply and demand are loose, and the basis is weakly stable. With the weakening of US soybeans, soybean meal may have a phased correction [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: US biodiesel policy disturbances increase, and the domestic soybean - oil supply is stronger than demand. The state's rapeseed - oil reserve sales are good, and the supply is becoming more abundant [19]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil futures fall, and exports decline. The domestic palm - oil inventory increases, and the price is under pressure [20]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn is stable. The inventory of ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises is low, and the futures may repair the basis [20]. - **Hogs**: The live - hog price is stable and slightly strong. The market supply is in excess, and the futures price may continue to fall [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's Vice Chair Jefferson reiterated the need for cautious policy adjustment, cooling the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and a continued decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed year - on - year and fell short of expectations, with the central bank restarting treasury bond trading to release liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market focuses on domestic stimulus policies, economic growth, and Fed policy expectations [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends. For example, stocks, bonds, and various commodities are mostly in a short - term volatile state, and specific trading strategies vary by asset [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and insurance, the domestic stock market fell. With economic data weakening and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive is weak, and the stock index is in short - term volatility. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market fell on Monday night. Due to the strong US dollar and reduced expectations of a US rate cut next month, the short - term is volatile, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday, driven by market sentiment. However, the fundamentals are still weak, with demand declining and supply being restricted by losses. The downward space below 3000 points for rebar is limited, and low - level buying opportunities can be considered [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded on Monday. The bottom of pig iron production is uncertain, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Monday, while the futures prices rebounded. The demand for ferroalloys decreased, and the supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly while that of silicon iron increased slightly. The futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures contract oscillated on Monday. Supply decreased marginally due to some device overhauls but remained under pressure. Demand for heavy soda was stable, and that for light soda improved slightly. Short - term range - bound, medium - to - long - term bearish [9]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was slightly stronger on Monday. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was still high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum continued to fall on Monday, restricted by the reduced expectation of a Fed rate cut. The inventory is difficult to deplete, and if the expectation is repaired later, the price may face a significant correction [10]. - **Tin**: The supply side has a tight situation, and the demand side is weak. The inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the medium - to - short term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Multiple contracts of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit on Monday. The market quickly digested negative news, and the demand logic prevails. It is oscillating strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure need to be watched [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly on Monday. After the end of the wet season, production in the southwest decreased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures contract fell on Monday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips can be considered [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is weak, and the port market has a strong basis in the morning. Inventory is rising, supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It may fall in the short term but is supported by gas restrictions and cost factors [15]. - **PP**: The PP market is in a weak and volatile state. The demand has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to increased inventory. With the approaching of the off - season, the price is expected to continue to decline [15]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is adjusted. The core contradiction is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure, and the demand support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market fluctuates slightly. Supply pressure persists, demand is differentiated, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term but may stabilize in the medium - to - long term [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean futures price rose overnight. The export inspection volume was in line with expectations, and the monthly crushing volume reached a record high [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is loose, the inventory is high, and the risk of a future gap is reduced. With the weakening of US soybeans, the price may correct, but it may also stabilize later [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand but is supported by the oil mill's price - holding and export rumors. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported [19]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December, and the export volume decreased significantly in November. The domestic inventory increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Corn**: The current corn inventories in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low. The futures price may correct the basis, and the price is expected to be slightly stronger [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig price was weak over the weekend. The winter consumption peak has not fully arrived, and the supply is in excess. The price is expected to decline in the short term, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data is better than expected, boosting global risk appetite, while China's economic growth has slowed down, and the short - term macro upward drive has weakened. Attention should be paid to China's economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. Metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are all affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international market conditions. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: US "small non - farm" ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, and the ISM services PMI rebounded, supporting the strong US dollar and increasing global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and the RMB exchange rate weakened in the short - term. However, the policy stimulus expectation after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is weakened [2][3]. - Asset operations: Short - term cautious long for stock indices and treasury bonds; short - term cautious observation for black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical commodities; short - term high - level correction and cautious observation for precious metals [2]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and batteries, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro upward drive is weakened, and short - term cautious long is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Wednesday night. Short - term precious metals are volatile, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term observation and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The decline of the steel spot and futures markets widened on Wednesday. Demand is expected to decline further from November to December, and supply may contract. The short - term market is expected to be weak and volatile [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures continued to weaken on Wednesday. Supply pressure is large, and prices are expected to fall further [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat on Wednesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure of soda ash remains, and a bearish view is taken in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - **Glass**: Supported by policies and the impact of Shahe news, glass is expected to be strong in the short - term, but overall demand is still weak [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The US dollar index is expected to remain strong. US copper inventories are at a historical high, and there is a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. The short - term is in high - level shock [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum is volatile in the short - term. Shorting can be considered if the price breaks through the resistance at 21,800 [9]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and demand is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cost support of large manufacturers [11]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to decline. The long - term pressure remains, and the medium - to - short - term focuses on the contradiction between fundamentals and geopolitical risks [14]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support is weakened, and the inventory pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of crude oil [14]. - **PX**: It remains in a tight pattern and is affected by crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The supply is high, and the inventory pressure is large. The short - term is under pressure [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory pressure is large in November, and caution is needed before entering the market [16]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the polyester sector to fluctuate, and the medium - term can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to enter a shock - consolidation phase after a short - term decline [18]. - **PP**: The supply pressure exists, but the demand shows marginal improvement. The short - term is expected to fall inertially [19]. - **LLDPE**: Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The market has optimistic expectations, and the price continues to rise [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [21][22]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a short - term adjustment, but the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil is weakly adjusted, and rapeseed oil is supported by factors such as inventory and trade risks [22]. - **Corn**: The market price is stable, and the futures may be supported at the bottom [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally falling, and it is difficult to rebound significantly before the winter solstice [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, China - US trade negotiations from the 24th - 27th progressed well, boosting market optimism. US September CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerated, and the good progress of China - US trade negotiations boosted domestic market expectations. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee emphasized supply security, manufacturing, and technological self - reliance, which helped boost domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position recommendation; government bonds are expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; the black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors are expected to have short - term volatile rebounds, with cautious long - positions recommended; precious metals are expected to have a short - term high - level correction, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the good progress of China - US trade negotiations and lower - than - expected US inflation data increased global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerated, and policy orientation boosted domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive strengthened, and attention should be paid to trade negotiation progress and domestic policy implementation. For assets, the stock index and government bonds are expected to be volatile, while the black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may have short - term rebounds, and precious metals may correct [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and military industry, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, domestic economic growth accelerated, and China - US trade negotiations progressed well. Policy orientation boosted domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive strengthened, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Friday night. Although US inflation data increased the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the good progress of China - US trade negotiations reduced the demand for hedging. Precious metals are expected to have a short - term correction, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - position holders are advised to reduce positions and wait, while medium - to - long - term investors can buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, while the futures price rebounded slightly. With the release of the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and positive news from China - US trade negotiations, the macro expectation remained strong. The apparent consumption of steel increased, and speculative demand also expanded. The supply of five major steel products increased, but considering the compressed profit of steel mills, future supply is expected to decline. The steel market has no trend - based market, and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly on Friday, and the futures price was weakly volatile. Due to the compressed profit of steel mills, iron - water production has been declining for three consecutive weeks and may continue to decline. Steel mills mainly replenish stocks on a just - in - time basis. The global iron ore shipment increased, while the arrival volume decreased. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Friday, while the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable in the short term. The supply of silicon manganese increased slightly. The price of silicon iron and silicon manganese futures is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The futures price of soda ash fluctuated within a range last week. The supply increased in the short term, and there are plans for capacity expansion in the fourth quarter. The demand increased slightly. The supply pressure remains, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price of glass fluctuated within a range last week. The supply remained stable, while the demand in the peak season was weaker than expected. The inventory of float glass is relatively high. With policy support, the glass market is expected to be traded within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end peak construction season [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The short - term macro environment is positive, but the high US copper inventory restricts import demand. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the futures price, while the possibility of the restart of a Panamanian copper mine needs to be monitored. The domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly on Friday. Although the impact of an overseas aluminum smelter's suspension of production is small, the overall market sentiment is positive, and the lack of downward momentum is due to market expectations. The decline in London aluminum inventory supports the price [10]. - **Tin**: After the end of the maintenance of a large - scale smelter in Yunnan, the smelting start - up rate increased significantly. However, the supply of tin ore remains tight. The high price suppresses consumption, but the low inventory in the early stage leads to some rigid - demand restocking. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of October 23, the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume also increased year - on - year. The social inventory decreased slightly. The supply and demand both increased, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: As of October 24, the weekly production increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a slight shutdown in the southwest region, the high start - up rate in Xinjiang brings supply pressure. The demand is relatively stable, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices are stable, but the terminal demand is weak. The inventory remains high, and the policy expectation supports the price. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, waiting for changes in supply - demand or policy [12]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the sanctions on Russia, the Russian oil supply channel may be restricted, but the actual market participants are still waiting. The ongoing China - US talks may support the oil price, but the short - term short - selling trend remains unchanged until the return of Asian buyers [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The rebound of the oil price drove up the asphalt futures price, but the basis remains low, and the actual shipment volume is low. The inventory pressure of asphalt plants continues, and the supply pressure increases. Considering the possible decline of crude oil prices in the future, the asphalt market may lack a strong upward drive [14]. - **PX**: The rise in crude oil prices drove up the polyester sector. The high start - up rate of PTA provides some demand support for PX. The PX price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, but there is still a relatively large bearish risk [14]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate decreased, but some winter - clothing orders increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The cost is the main driving factor, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the short term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased, but the uncertainty of domestic ethylene production and the increase in downstream restocking may support the price. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price rebounded slightly with the polyester sector and oil price, but it is expected to remain weak and volatile. The terminal orders increased seasonally, but the increase was limited, and the inventory increased slightly. The upward space is limited, and a short - selling strategy can be considered in the medium - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The current device maintenance reduced the production capacity utilization rate, but the supply pressure is expected to increase next week. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The methanol price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [16]. - **PP**: Although there is some device maintenance, the supply is still sufficient. The demand improved significantly due to "Double 11" stocking, and the inventory decreased slightly. The PP price may have a short - term repair [16]. - **LLDPE**: The expected supply of polyethylene increases, and the industrial inventory decreases. The downstream start - up rate may increase slightly. The price is expected to have a short - term repair, but the supply surplus situation remains, and attention should be paid to device maintenance [16]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is becoming more abundant. The agricultural and industrial demand is stable, and some reserve demand may be released. The inventory at the enterprise level increases slightly, and the port inventory decreases significantly. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The export shipment of US soybeans decreased significantly this crop year, and the sales to China are still zero. The market is waiting for the result of China - US soybean trade negotiations. The soybean price rebounded recently, while the oil and meal prices were weak, leading to a decline in domestic soybean crushing profit [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean oil mills have a large supply of soybeans and high inventory, and maintain a high - level operation. The soybean meal supply is sufficient, but the new trading volume is small. The future of China - US soybean trade will determine the supply gap risk in the first quarter of next year. The increase in soybean prices and the loss of oil mills may limit future soybean procurement. The soybean meal futures may have short - covering, but attention should be paid to trade negotiation dynamics [18]. - **Oils**: The unexpected increase in palm oil production in October caused short - term adjustment pressure, but the rise in international oilseeds and crude oil prices provided some support. Palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains. The consumption of soybean and rapeseed oil is in the peak season, and the price difference between soybean and palm oil is expected to be repaired. The vegetable oil inventory is decreasing, and the market has no clear direction for now [19]. - **Corn**: The corn price in the Northeast region is stable. The China - US trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and traders' intention to build inventory is general. The current price is close to the planting cost, and farmers may be more reluctant to sell as the temperature drops [19]. - **Hogs**: At the current low price level, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is widening, and the second - fattening demand is increasing. The pig price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to pork purchase and storage actions [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of gold futures, with the Shanghai gold main contract reported at 966.22 yuan/gram, reflecting a 1.83% increase [1] - The macroeconomic context indicates a slight decline in consumer spending and a generally weak labor demand, as noted in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [1] - The Federal Reserve's member Milan suggests accelerating interest rate cuts, with a realistic expectation of two more cuts this year, impacting the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic growth is showing signs of acceleration, despite ongoing tensions between China and the U.S., with both sides expressing restraint [1] - Various industries in China are rolling out growth stabilization plans, supported by increased policy measures, which are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [1] - The market's trading logic is currently focused on domestic stimulus policies and U.S.-China negotiations, with an enhanced upward macroeconomic drive anticipated in the short term [1] Group 3 - The precious metals market continues to trend upward, with the Shanghai gold main contract closing at 960.34 yuan/gram, up 2.09%, and the Shanghai silver main contract at 11,966 yuan/kilogram, up 2.30% [1] - The expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions are driving the ongoing record rise in spot gold prices, although short-term volatility is increasing [1] - The short-term outlook for precious metals remains strong, with a long-term upward trend unchanged; strategies suggest holding long positions or reducing positions at highs in the short term, and buying at lows in the long term [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's Beige Book shows a slight decline in consumer spending and generally weak labor demand. Fed Governor Milan calls for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, which leads to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and with the release of restrained statements from both China and the US, domestic risk appetite has rebounded. Multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, strengthening the short - term upward macro - drive. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and China - US games [3]. - In the asset market, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting and watching are advised; among commodity sectors, black commodities are short - term oscillating, short - term cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, cautious long positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in consumer spending and weak labor demand. Fed Governor Milan calls for faster rate cuts, with two more cuts this year being realistic. This causes the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall, and global risk appetite to rise. Domestic: Economic growth accelerates, and with China - US restraint, domestic risk appetite rebounds. Multiple industry support policies are introduced, enhancing the short - term upward macro - drive. Focus on China - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Asset suggestions: short - term long for stock indices, cautious waiting for treasury bonds, different strategies for different commodity sectors [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as automobiles, consumer electronics, and airport shipping, the domestic stock market rises significantly. With economic growth accelerating, China - US restraint, and policy support, domestic risk appetite rebounds. Short - term long positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market continues to rise. Driven by Fed rate - cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, spot gold reaches new highs with increased short - term volatility. Short - term long positions can be held or reduced at high prices, and long - term buying on dips is advised [4]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets remain weak, with low trading volumes. The fundamentals are weak, with inventory rising and apparent consumption falling. Although production is falling, mills have weak willingness to cut production. The market may continue to be weak in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - Futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to fall. With high iron - water output and shrinking mill profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. Supply shows a decline in global shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory rises. A bearish view is recommended [7][8]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebound slightly. Demand decreases due to a slight decline in steel production. Manganese ore prices are weak. Supply shows a decrease in the开工 rate and daily output of silicon manganese. Prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Copper prices rise and then fall. In 2026, global copper mine output growth is expected to be high, and the Panama Cobre copper mine may restart. US economic uncertainties are a risk. Domestically, electrolytic copper production is high, but demand is facing challenges, and inventory reduction is below expectations [11]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rise slightly as trade - tension concerns ease. Inventory is increasing, supply is rigid, demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. Tin - Supply is tight globally due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining and policy adjustments. Demand improvement is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, with support from tight supply and limited upside due to consumption suppression and macro risks [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 73,150 yuan/ton. With trade conflicts and potential spot selling pressure, the short - term upward drive is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is stable. With high production and no significant inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the cost support [13]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are stable. With increasing warehouse receipts and supply - demand imbalance, it is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the spot price support [14]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Despite Fed rate - cut signals, oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. US key price indicators fall, and some market indicators weaken. Oil prices will test lower levels, and macro risks should be monitored [15]. Asphalt - Oil prices are low, and asphalt oscillates at the bottom. Demand is near the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is necessary to monitor the cost support from crude oil [15][16]. PX - PX oscillates weakly, with demand support from PTA high - level operation. It is likely to continue to oscillate weakly with the polyester sector [16]. PTA - Polyester products oscillate at low levels. With high supply, increasing inventory, and weakening demand, PTA prices will continue to be weak [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol sentiment is weak. With rising inventory, new production expectations, and weak demand, it is expected to accumulate inventory in late October and trade at low levels [17]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber adjusts with the polyester sector. With limited terminal orders and inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. Methanol - Methanol prices oscillate weakly. Supply growth exceeds demand recovery, and high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to US sanctions on Iran [18]. PP - PP prices fall. The market has a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but new capacity and trade conflicts lead to a bearish view [19]. LLDPE - LLDPE prices adjust. Supply pressure is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and with weak oil prices and trade conflicts, it is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. Urea - Urea prices are stable. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Although Indian tenders are a potential positive, export policies are unclear. Prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [21]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - CBOT November soybeans rise slightly. US soybean crushing in September reaches a high level, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year increases [22]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - After the National Day, the market sentiment improves, but oil - mill inventory pressure remains high. With sufficient soybean supply in the fourth quarter, soybean meal may oscillate at low levels. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade for rapeseed meal [22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, short - term rapeseed oil risk weakens. Soybean oil inventory pressure remains, and prices may be weak [22]. Palm Oil - Southeast Asian palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle. October production in Malaysia increases, suppressing prices, while exports also increase, providing some support. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 is expected to be in the second half of next year, and short - term demand growth is unlikely [22]. Live Pigs - Pig supply increases in September and October, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, it is not enough to support prices. With the expectation of increased consumption in autumn and winter, pig prices may stabilize [23][24].

Overall Core View - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the restrained statements from both China and the US. The domestic economic growth has accelerated, and the issuance of multiple industry stabilization and growth plans has increased policy support, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. Market Analysis by Asset Class Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious long. The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as consumer electronics, auto parts, and short - drama games. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and short - term cautious waiting and watching are recommended [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching [2]. - **Commodity Sector**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching. Steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, while iron ore prices were short - term strong and silicon - manganese/silicon - iron prices were expected to continue range - bound oscillations [2][4][6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, short - term cautious long [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautious long. The precious metal market continued to rise, and short - term long positions should be held, while medium - and long - term buying on dips is recommended [2][3]. Specific Commodities Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak, with low - level trading volume. Although the export data in September exceeded expectations and market risk appetite increased, real - world demand has not improved, and supply remains high. The steel market is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Ore demand remains strong, but the expectation of steel mill production cuts has increased. Supply and inventory data show mixed trends, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to when steel mills start to cut production [4][5]. - **Silicon - manganese/Silicon - iron**: Spot and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is still okay in the short term, but the prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations [6]. - **Copper**: The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be relatively high in 2026. However, the US economy has uncertainties, and the domestic electrolytic copper demand is facing challenges. The copper inventory reduction is less than expected, and the US copper inventory is high [7]. - **Aluminum**: The price recovered due to the alleviation of trade tension concerns. The inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened marginally. It is difficult for the price to rise significantly [8]. - **Tin**: The global tin ore supply is tight, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to remain high - level oscillating, but the upside is pressured [8]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract declined. Short - term upward drive is insufficient, and the market is expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The production has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract declined. The supply is high, the demand is low, and the market is waiting for the implementation of the storage purchase news [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but it remains below $60. The long - term trend is bearish, and the short - term is oscillating [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: It maintains a weak - side oscillating pattern. The peak - season demand is almost over, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamental driving force for recovery is weak [12]. - **PX**: It follows the polyester sector and remains in a weak - side oscillation. Although it gets some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [12]. - **PTA**: It maintains a low - level oscillation. The demand pressure will increase, and the supply will remain high, resulting in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has increased, the demand has weakened, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level range [13]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Methanol**: The supply growth rate far exceeds the demand recovery, resulting in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The post - holiday market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but the supply pressure in the long - term is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure [14]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is operating weakly due to the strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and the future trend depends on the export policy [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The concerns about Trump's tariff remarks in the CBOT market have eased, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is good [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The import of soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to be abundant, and the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract is difficult to rebound significantly. The market should pay attention to the performance of the CBOT soybean market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory has increased, and the price may be relatively weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, which forms a support [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The Southeast Asian palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle. The October production in Malaysia increases, which suppresses the price, while the export increase also provides some support [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with a short - term strengthening of the upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and cautious observation is advised; among commodity sectors, black commodities are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to rise significantly in the short - term, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound in a volatile manner, with cautious long positions; precious metals are expected to be strong and volatile at high levels, with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP was significantly revised upwards, the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, 2025, were at a new low since the week of July 19, 2025, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite continued to decline. - Domestic: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, and domestic demand continued to slow down. Policy support has been strengthened, and domestic risk appetite has increased significantly. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, and cautious observation is advised [2]. 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of domestic steel continued a small - scale rebound on Thursday. The real - world demand continued to weaken, but there were differences among varieties. The supply remained at a high level, and the logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to be strong on Thursday. The demand remained strong, and the supply was generally at a high level. The iron ore price should be treated with a range - bound thinking, but there is a risk of negative feedback after November [4][5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly on Thursday, while the futures prices rebounded slightly. The downstream demand is expected to improve. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash fluctuated on Thursday. The price was affected by the downstream glass sector. In the short - term, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but in the long - term, the supply contradiction will suppress the price [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass fluctuated on Thursday. The supply remained stable, the demand improved marginally, and with positive policy sentiment, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The LME copper price rose and then fell overnight. Although the production of the Grasberg copper mine was affected, the复产 schedule reduced market speculation expectations [8]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose on Thursday and then fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term to wait for new drivers. The social inventory decreased significantly due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply is tightened in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased significantly. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with support from maintenance and peak - season expectations, but the upside space is under pressure [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The supply and demand both increased, and the fundamentals improved marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the upper - pressure range should be monitored [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. There is no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Thursday. The spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased. The policy expectation is still strong, and it is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [11]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between Russia and NATO have intensified, and the supply risk has increased. Although the resumption of exports from the Kurdish region in northern Iraq provides some support, the long - term bearish expectation remains unchanged [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded following the crude oil price. The peak - season demand is over, and the surplus pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the extent of following the crude oil price increase [13]. - **PX**: The main contract fluctuated. The supply is still tight, but the polyester sector has declined recently, and it is expected to be weakly volatile with some support below [13]. - **PTA**: The market has expectations of joint production cuts by leading enterprises, but the basis strengthening is limited, and the demand in the peak season has fallen short. There is long - term downward pressure on the disk [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price remained low and volatile. The port inventory changed little, and the downstream demand was weak. There is no obvious driving force for the price to rise [14]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly. The terminal orders increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The subsequent upside space may be limited [14]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The supply is in surplus in the short - term, but there may be a turning point in supply and demand in October [15]. - **PP**: The market price recovered slightly. The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the improvement of peak - season demand should be monitored [15][16]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price increased slightly. The supply increased, and the peak - season demand fell short of expectations. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market was stable. The supply is sufficient, the demand support is weak, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is significant short - term pressure [17]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. The resumption of export tax in Argentina and the possible downgrade of US soybean crop ratings provided some support, but the high yield and weak export sales restricted the rebound [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. The low - valued cost of imported soybeans provides support [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The supply - demand situation is stable. In the future, attention should be paid to the low inventory in the production area, the price - support sentiment dominated by policies, and the impact of US soybean oil - related biodiesel policies on the market [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market continues to have a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The rapeseed oil supply may shrink significantly in the short - term, and the high inventory will continue to decline, so the price is likely to rise [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell mentioned balancing inflation concerns with a weakening job market in future rate decisions; the US dollar index strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [4]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are short - term oscillatory, and cautious observation is recommended. In the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious short - term observation; non - ferrous metals have risen significantly in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillatory and rebounding, with cautious long positions; precious metals are short - term high and strong oscillatory, with cautious long positions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell needs to balance inflation concerns and a weakening job market in future rate decisions; the US dollar index has strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth are lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; black metals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious short - term observation; non - ferrous metals have risen significantly in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillatory and rebounding, with cautious long positions; precious metals are short - term high and strong oscillatory, with cautious long positions [4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as semiconductors, energy metals, and batteries, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Fundamentally, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth are lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volume. The construction industry's stable growth plan has led to rebounds in glass and steel. Fundamentally, real demand continues to weaken, and steel inventories are rising, but the increase has narrowed. Apparent consumption has slightly increased. Supply has also increased, especially in construction steel. There are rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. The short - term steel market is likely to be range - bound [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Steel mills are replenishing stocks before the National Day, and iron ore production has increased. Supply is high, with a decrease in global shipments and an increase in arrivals this week. Port inventories have also increased slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - bound mindset, but there is a risk of negative feedback after November [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: At around 8 pm last night, copper prices soared due to the shutdown of the world's second - largest copper mine, Grasberg. The mine's annual production is 800,000 tons, and the shutdown affects about one - third, or 270,000 tons. However, Grasberg will resume production in stages and fully recover in 2027, with the actual impact lower than the theoretical value. Copper concentrate spot TC is stable and slightly rising, electrolytic copper production is high, and the impact of recycled copper policy disturbances on production is limited. Future demand faces a marginal decline risk. The upside space is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, aluminum prices stabilized, closing with a small real - body positive line, supported by the 60 - day moving average. After the Fed's interest rate cut, non - ferrous metals have returned to fundamental trading, with different trends among varieties. Currently, the fundamentals of aluminum are weak [9]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. Manganese ore trading has slowed down. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises has decreased, and daily production has also decreased. Steel mills' profits are around the cost line, and the September procurement is mostly completed. With the approaching of the National Day and the October tender, downstream demand is expected to improve. The Lanthanum market sentiment has improved. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to be range - bound [9]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda ash contract was strong. Affected by the downstream glass sector, soda ash prices have strengthened. Last week, supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall supply is still sufficient. Demand is stable week - on - week, with some improvement in the peak season, but terminal demand support has not changed significantly, and the demand increase space is limited. Currently, soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, with the peak season and upstream overhauls decreasing, supply and demand will both increase, but in the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices [9]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was strong. On September 24, the "Building Materials Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was officially announced, combined with the traditional peak season, leading to a rise in glass prices. Last week, glass production was stable, and downstream deep - processing factory orders increased slightly. Overall, glass supply is stable, demand has marginally improved, and with positive policy sentiment, it is expected to be short - term strong [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum factories are short of raw materials, with rising production costs. It is still the off - season, with weak manufacturing orders and poor demand. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has remained low, reaching 29.92%, slightly rising from last week, mainly due to some smelting enterprise overhauls in Yunnan and tight ore supply. However, the impact is expected to be short - term, and the start - up rate will rise after the overhauls end. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore supply will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak, with weak demand in traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances, and weakening new photovoltaic installations in the past two months. Due to supply tightening, tin price declines have led to some downstream and terminal enterprises replenishing stocks and making rigid purchases, with inventory decreasing by 936 tons to 8,453 tons. Overall, the price is expected to be short - term oscillatory, with overhaul and peak - season expectations supporting the price, but the upside space will be under pressure [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 0.79%, with a new settlement price of 73,360 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract added 10,199 lots, with a total position of 714,600 lots. The steel union quotes battery - grade lithium carbonate at 73,250 yuan/ton (flat). The latest CIF price of Australian lithium spodumene is 827.5 US dollars/ton (down 5 US dollars). The production profit of purchased lithium spodumene is - 2,519 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong peak - season demand, a slight reduction in social inventory, and the transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The fundamentals are marginally improving, with limited downside space. The market is expected to be oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial silicon 2511 contract rose 0.84%, with a new settlement price of 8,990 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position was 508,300 lots, with a reduction of 1,424 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9,500 yuan/ton (flat), and the futures are at a discount of 480 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China 421 and East China oxygen - containing 553 is 200 yuan/ton. There is no obvious positive factor for industrial silicon, and the market is expected to be range - bound [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon 2511 contract rose 2.41%, with a new settlement price of 50,910 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position was 250,400 lots, with a reduction of 2,089 lots. The latest price of N - type re -投料 is 51,500 yuan/ton (flat), and the price of P - type cauliflower material is 30,500 yuan/ton (flat). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.35 yuan/piece (flat), the price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) is 0.315 yuan/watt (flat), and the price of N - type components (centralized) is 0.66 yuan/watt (flat). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7,850 lots (down 20 lots). Recently, the spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have increased, and there is still a strong policy expectation. The short - term is expected to be high and oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the spot price support [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US's tough stance on Russia has pushed up oil prices. Trump's remarks have raised concerns about supply disruptions. Russia is considering diesel export restrictions, and CTA short positions are being closed. Oil prices will be supported in the near term and remain oscillatory [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The rebound of oil prices has driven up asphalt prices. However, the peak - season demand is over, and there is still excess pressure. The short - term basis is slightly decreasing, and inventory de - stocking is limited. In the future, oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and attention should be paid to the follow - up increase of asphalt prices [13]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate with the polyester sector, with support from crude oil costs. The previous small positive factors from low device start - up and increased overhaul plans have been priced in. The PXN spread has decreased slightly to 205 US dollars, and the PX foreign market has fallen to 812 US dollars. PTA short - term processing fees are being squeezed. PX is still in a tight situation, but with the recent decline of the polyester sector, it may remain weakly oscillatory with some support below [13]. - **PP**: The market price is weakly oscillatory. The two - oil polyolefin inventory has decreased. Device overhauls have led to a short - term decrease in production, and downstream start - up and orders have improved, with raw material inventory rising and peak - season stocking starting. However, seasonal supply increases and new capacity releases have kept the supply loose, and the excess pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to be oscillatory and slightly weak, and attention should be paid to peak - season demand improvement [14][15]. - **PTA**: The stimulus from PTA production cut rumors has ended, and there is no substantial news. Downstream start - up has fallen, terminal orders are average, and peak - season demand has disappointed. Downstream inventory has increased, and the PTA trading basis has been falling. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with more device overhauls planned. There is still some support at the previous low. In the short term, with a large increase in short positions and no major fluctuations in oil prices, the futures price is under downward pressure [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol remains low and oscillatory, with stable port inventory. The expected start - up of Yulong has strengthened. Downstream demand is weak, and after the peak season, trading is still light, with the basis not significantly improved. If downstream inventory continues to accumulate, there is no obvious upward driver for ethylene glycol prices, and it will continue to be oscillatory [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber has adjusted with the polyester sector, and the price has slightly decreased. Terminal orders have seasonally increased but with limited amplitude. Short - fiber start - up has rebounded, leading to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and start - up. Currently, the upside space is limited, and short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang is weakly oscillatory, and the basis is weakening. In the short term, domestic and imported supply has slightly decreased, and the restart of port MTO has prevented inventory from rising. The continuous weakness of the port has pressured prices, and some inland arbitrage windows have opened, but the supply - excess pattern cannot be changed in the short term, and high inventory still suppresses prices. In the long term, the recent malfunction and overhaul of Iranian devices have led to speculation about early gas restrictions, and October imports may be the key to the supply - demand change of methanol. Long positions can be considered in the long term [14]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market is priced at 7,080 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with price adjustments in different regions. Device restarts have increased supply, and the start - up of the agricultural film industry has been slow, with order growth slower than in previous years. However, the inventory is relatively low, and the stability of oil prices under geopolitical and Fed interest - rate cut backgrounds provides some support. Currently, the return of supply and lower - than - expected peak - season demand make the overall supply - demand situation pessimistic, and the price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly weak [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. Currently, the urea fundamentals show a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and differentiated inventory." Supply is increasing as previously overhauled devices resume production, and the daily output is expected to return to 200,000 tons. Agricultural demand during the autumn fertilizer - stocking period from late September to early October may bring some short - term sales, but the overall impact on the market is limited. Industrial demand is still low, with the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization rate at only 38.63% as of September 18. Inventory shows a differentiated pattern, with enterprise inventory increasing by 2.88% to 1.1653 million tons, indicating that domestic demand is lower than supply, and port inventory decreasing by 6.08% to 516,000 tons due to approaching export windows. Overall, the urea market has sufficient supply and weak demand support, with enterprise inventory accumulation indicating a loose fundamental situation and significant short - term pressure [16].