【黄金期货行情表现】 10月16日，沪金主力暂报966.22元/克，涨幅达1.83%，今日沪金主力开盘价958.00元/克，截至目前最高 971.58元/克，最低956.38元/克。 【宏观消息】 【机构观点】 贵金属市场周三整体继续上行，沪金主力合约收至960.34/克，上涨2.09%；沪银主力合约收至11966元/ 千克，上涨2.30%。美联储降息预期和地缘政治紧张局势的推动下，现货黄金延续创纪录涨势，但是短 期波动加剧。短期贵金属偏强运行，中长期向上格局未改，操作方面，短期多头继续持有或逢高减仓， 中长期逢低买入。 美联储褐皮书显示消费支出小幅下降，劳动力需求普遍低迷；而且美联储理事米兰呼吁加快降息步伐， 但（单次）降息幅度无需超过50BP，其称今年再降息两次是现实的；受此影响，美元指数和美债收益 率回落，全球风险偏好整体升温。 国内经济增长有所加快，虽然短期中美之间的博弈仍存，虽中美双方均释放克制发言，国内风险偏好重 新升温。 国内多个行业稳增长方案陆续出台，政策支持力度加大，有助于提振国内风险偏好。近期市场交易逻辑 主要聚焦在国内增量刺激政策以及中美之间的博弈上，短期宏观向上驱动有所增强；后续关注中 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 会 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z00222 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：pengyy@qh168.com.cn 2025年10月14日 研究所晨会观点精萃 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com. ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 【股指】在贵金属、港口航运以及油气等板块的拖累下，国内股市微幅下跌。基 本面上，中国 8 消费同比增长 3.4%，1-8 月投资同比增长 0.5%，工业增加值同 比增长 5.2%，均 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 精 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F031 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance, the dollar index rose and then fell, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, economic data in August was lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. However, domestic risk appetite increased overall, and the short - term upward macro - driving force strengthened. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; in the commodity sector, black commodities are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, Fed officials' hawkish signals led to the dollar index rising and then falling, and global risk appetite increasing. Domestically, economic data such as consumption, investment, and industrial added value in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The central bank adheres to its own - centered monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to attract long - term funds into the market. The short - term upward macro - driving force has strengthened, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [2]. - **Asset trends**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; black commodities are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as precious metals, consumer electronics, and semiconductors. The economic data in August was lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The short - term upward macro - driving force has strengthened, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. It is suggested to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. The visit of a US congressional delegation signaled a relaxation of Sino - US relations. The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" proposed to continue production control, and there were rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety. The steel market is likely to be range - bound in the short term [4]. - **Iron ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to rebound on Monday. Steel mills' restocking continued before the National Day holiday, and steel production enthusiasm was high. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume increased. The iron ore price should be treated with a range - bound mindset [4][5]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded after a significant decline. The manganese ore trading slowed down. The开工 rate of silicon manganese enterprises decreased, and the daily output decreased. The price of silicon iron was supported by factors such as electricity prices, and the production reduction space was limited. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to be range - bound [6]. - **Soda ash**: The main soda ash contract was weak on Monday. Supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall supply was still sufficient. Demand was stable week - on - week and improved in the peak season, but the terminal demand support did not change significantly. In the short term, supply and demand will increase, but in the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract was weak on Monday. Glass production was stable, and downstream demand improved slightly in the peak season but with limited growth. The overall glass supply was stable, and demand was difficult to increase significantly. The policy sentiment was volatile, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks had a positive atmosphere. The spot TC of copper concentrate was stable, electrolytic copper production was at a high level, and the impact of recycled copper policy disturbances on production was limited. Future demand may decline marginally, and the upside space is restricted by the US economic slowdown [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fell slightly on Monday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, non - ferrous metals returned to fundamental trading. The current aluminum fundamentals are weak, with social inventories not decreasing, demand recovering weakly in the peak season, and the spot price lagging behind the futures price [8]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is currently in the off - season of demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low but rebounded slightly. It was mainly affected by the overhauls of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tight supply of ore, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Terminal demand is weak, but due to the tightening of supply, inventory decreased significantly. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with support from overhaul and peak - season expectations but limited upside space [9]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The main lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 0.05% on Monday. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong peak - season demand, a slight decrease in social inventory, and a transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [10]. - **Industrial silicon**: The main industrial silicon 2511 contract fell 0.83% on Monday. There is no obvious positive factor, and the market is expected to be range - bound [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon 2511 contract fell 3.63% on Monday. The spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have increased, and there are still strong policy expectations. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support of spot prices [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The market is weighing the EU's measures against Russian oil supply and the impact of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. The next - round EU sanctions may target Asian enterprises, but the impact may be limited without stronger measures from the US and Europe. Ukraine's attacks have partially offset the current negative factors. The short - term oil price will continue to be range - bound with a downward bias [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices continue to fall, the upside space for asphalt is limited, and the peak - season demand is passing, with excess pressure remaining. The short - term basis is slightly decreasing, and inventory removal is limited. In the future, as crude oil prices are expected to fall due to OPEC+ production increases, attention should be paid to the extent to which asphalt follows crude oil price movements [13]. - **PX**: The main contract continued to be weakly range - bound following the polyester sector. The previous slight positive factors from low device operating rates and increased overhaul plans have been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has decreased slightly, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. It is expected to be weakly range - bound with some support at the bottom [13]. - **PTA**: There were rumors of joint production cuts by leading PTA factories, but no substantial news was released, and the price fell. Downstream operating rates have decreased, peak - season demand has disappointed, and downstream inventory has increased. However, due to low processing fees, leading devices have increased overhaul plans, providing some support at the previous low. In the short term, with an increase in short positions by funds, the futures price may face downward pressure [14]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Port inventory remained at 46.7 tons with little change, and the expected commissioning of Yulong has strengthened. Downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain low and range - bound. If downstream inventory continues to accumulate, there will be no obvious upward - driving force [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices slightly decreased following the polyester sector. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with limited growth. Short - fiber production has rebounded, leading to a limited increase in inventory. The future upward space may be limited, and it is suggested to consider short positions in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures were strongly range - bound, and the basis was weak. The domestic and imported supply decreased slightly in the short term, and the restart of port MTO units prevented inventory from rising. However, the supply - excess situation remains, and high inventory suppresses prices. In the long term, the possible reduction of imports in October due to Iranian device overhauls may change the supply - demand situation, and there may be opportunities for long positions [15]. - **PP**: The market quotation of PP decreased. The inventory of polyolefins from two major oil companies increased. Device overhauls led to a short - term decrease in production, and downstream demand improved, with raw material inventory starting to rise. However, due to seasonal production increases and new capacity releases, the supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to be weakly range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of peak - season demand [15]. - **LLDPE**: The ex - factory prices of LLDPE from two major oil companies were partially adjusted, and the market price decreased. Device restarts increased supply, and the operating rate of the agricultural film industry increased slowly, with orders growing slower than in previous years. However, low inventory and stable oil prices provide some support. The overall supply - demand situation is pessimistic, and the price is expected to be weakly range - bound [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market adjusted downward. The current urea fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply, weak demand, and differentiated inventory. Supply is increasing as previously overhauled devices resume production. Agricultural demand during the autumn fertilizer - stocking period has limited impact, and industrial demand is still at a low level. Enterprise inventory is accumulating, while port inventory is decreasing. The market is under short - term pressure [17]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT market fell 1.39% overnight. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and other grains dragged down the CBOT corn and soybean futures. However, the downgraded US soybean crop rating provided some support [18]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, with high soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates, and slow inventory digestion. Although the soybean meal market valuation is low, short - term risk appetite is not high, and US soybeans lack clear direction. It is expected that the soybean meal market will stabilize gradually from late September to October, as the overall supply - demand will shrink in the fourth quarter, and the cost support will strengthen. If the USDA adjusts its yield forecast, it may relieve export pressure and increase buying sentiment [19]. - **Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil remains weak, with limited pre - holiday consumption support and continuous release of supply pressure. The market sentiment is cautious. For rapeseed oil, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not improved, and the market sentiment is still cautious. During the seasonal peak - sales period, high inventory is being reduced, and there is a strong willingness to support prices. The domestic palm oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the basis price remains low. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil has improved, providing support for futures prices [20]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn in the Northeast is being harvested smoothly, with good quality and high opening prices that are currently stable. The price of new corn in North China continues to fall but at a slower pace, and the supply of old - season corn is tight with a firm price. The corn price in the sales area is stable, and downstream feed mills have low inventory, providing some support. Traders are not willing to store corn, and there is an expectation of price decline during the peak - listing period from mid - October to November. The futures price has strong support due to a large discount to the spot price [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig price has reached a new low this year, and the breeding profit has further shrunk, with some self - breeding and self - raising farms incurring losses. The supply of pigs in the market is still sufficient, and demand is stable. There is limited support at present. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of pork reserve purchases on farmers' price - holding sentiment. With the approaching of the double festivals, there may be inventory - building demand in the short term. It is expected that the pig price will stabilize in the second half of the month, with limited rebound space [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed announced an expected interest rate cut, the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rebounded, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, economic data was lower than expected, but short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks and precious metals may be short - term bullish, while bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals are expected to be short - term volatile [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Global Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected but hinted at no rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, causing the US dollar index and Treasury yields to rebound sharply, and global risk appetite to increase [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. Domestic risk appetite increased due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position recommendation. Bonds are also expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see approach. Among commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors are expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see stance; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at high levels, with a cautious long - position recommendation [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The domestic stock market declined due to the drag of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and securities sectors. - **Fundamentals**: China's economic data was lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing down. Policy support was provided by measures to expand service consumption. Short - term external risk uncertainty decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. The market is focused on domestic incremental policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Thursday, with low trading volume. After the Fed's interest rate cut, some funds left the market. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, with rebar consumption rising and hot - rolled coil consumption falling. Supply decreased slightly. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore declined slightly on Thursday. There were rumors of production restrictions, and the increase in molten iron production was limited. Supply remained high, and port inventories decreased slightly. The price is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the price of silicon iron was supported by electricity costs and other factors. The market is expected to be range - bound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash declined from a high on Thursday. Supply increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. Demand was stable but weak. The price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term policy and news risks [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass declined from a high on Thursday. Supply was stable, and demand growth was limited. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices, along with tax policy impacts and a copper mine accident in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [9]. - **Aluminum**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices fell but were supported above the 20 - day moving average. The recent price increase was due to interest rate cut expectations and the spill - over effect of copper price increases, but the fundamentals are weak, with increasing inventories and limited demand recovery [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight ore supply, but it is expected to recover. Demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with upside pressure [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Thursday. Supply and demand both increased, and inventories decreased. The market is expected to be slightly bullish, with attention to the upper pressure range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Thursday. With polysilicon and coking coal at high levels, it is expected to be slightly bullish [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon declined on Thursday. Spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased, and policy expectations remained strong. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: President Trump's remarks weakened market confidence in sanctions against Russia, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on market sentiment was limited. The price is expected to be supported and range - bound, with market focus on sanctions and geopolitics [13]. - **Asphalt**: After a slight decline in oil prices, asphalt rebounded and stabilized. The upside is limited, and it may be range - bound at a low level due to potential inventory accumulation and falling oil prices [14]. - **PX**: The PX price was stable, and the previous positive factors were mostly priced in. The PXN spread decreased slightly, and it is expected to be range - bound, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. - **PTA**: Downstream开工率 remained at 91.4%, with limited terminal demand recovery. PTA processing fees were squeezed, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It remained stable and volatile, but downstream demand was weak. With potential new device production and limited export orders, it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: It followed the polyester sector and rebounded slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upside is limited [15]. - **Methanol**: The port price declined, and the inventory increased. Although the fundamentals improved marginally, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [15]. - **PP**: The market price declined. Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply remained abundant. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. US soybean export sales were better than expected, but crop ratings were falling, and the final yield estimate may be adjusted downward. The market maintains a cautious optimistic attitude [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve in late September and October, and the price center of gravity may rise [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT November soybean oil contract declined. Domestic soybean crushing is high, and soybean oil supply is sufficient. Canola oil inventories are decreasing, and the market sentiment is strong during the seasonal sales peak [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline of Chicago soybean oil and international crude oil futures will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. Domestic demand is weakening, and inventories are increasing. Although there are concerns about production in Malaysia, the upside is limited [19]. - **Corn**: The prices in the northern ports and Northeast production areas rebounded slightly, while the prices of new corn in North China continued to decline but at a slower pace. New grain is expected to be listed in large quantities from mid - October to November, with a downward price expectation. The futures contract has strong support [19]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices reached a new low this year. Supply is abundant, and demand is stable. The rebound space in late September is limited [20].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Global risk appetite has increased due to multiple Federal Reserve officials signaling potential interest rate cuts, while in China, although there are signs of improvement in the manufacturing PMI, it has remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. Market sentiment is divided, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors show various trends. Metals may have short - term fluctuations, energy chemicals are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as harvest seasons and trade policies. 3. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: Multiple Federal Reserve officials are paving the way for interest rate cuts. The Beige Book shows that economic activity is basically flat, the number of job openings in the US has unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year, indicating a slowdown in the job market, and the US dollar index has weakened [2]. - Domestic: China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Market sentiment has cooled, and risk appetite has decreased [2]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock indices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach; treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; different commodity sectors have different short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Stock Indices - The domestic stock market has declined significantly, dragged down by sectors such as military, small metals, and securities. The short - term upward macro - driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious wait - and - see is recommended [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak on Wednesday. Real - world demand has weakened, inventories have accumulated, and although there is short - term supply reduction due to production restrictions, the probability of steel mill复产 next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Ore demand has decreased, but steel mills are likely to resume production next week. The supply of iron ore has increased this week, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in different regions has different trends, and the prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight slowdown in the contraction rate. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally, but a September Fed interest rate cut may briefly boost copper prices [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, aluminum prices rose and then fell. The inventory has increased, and the medium - term upward space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to remain volatile [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. Supply is expected to ease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upward space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell on Wednesday. It is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation, with a short - term short and long - term long view [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Wednesday. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Wednesday. It is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may consider further production increases, and the price will continue to be priced between supply surplus and geopolitical supply risks. The spot market has slightly recovered in the short term, and the futures market is waiting for long - term bearish signals [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market fluctuates following the oil price. The cost - driven logic exists in the short term. Attention should be paid to the extent of its follow - up increase with the oil price in the later stage [14]. - **PX**: The price of PX is generally weak, supported only by maintenance plans. It is expected to remain volatile and wait for changes in PTA devices [14]. - **PTA**: The price is affected by downstream start - up recovery and upstream costs. It is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas device problems, port inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to downstream start - up recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is prominent, but the fundamentals show marginal improvement signs. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **PP**: The supply has reached a new high, and demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent currently. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has weakened. The weekly crop growth report shows changes in the excellent - good rate, pod - setting rate, and defoliation rate. The export inspection volume has also been reported [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans may be under pressure, and the risk preference of protein meals may decrease. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [19]. - **Oils**: The price of Malaysian palm oil futures has fallen. The inventory in August is expected to increase continuously. Domestic palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - **Corn**: New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The price in North China is stable, and the futures market has rebounded [20]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of pigs will both increase in September. The pig price is expected to show a weakly fluctuating trend [20].