锌板

Search documents
沪锌期货早报-20250808
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc (SHFE Zinc) showing an oscillating upward trend, closing with a positive candle, increasing trading volume, and the long - position holders increasing their positions while the short - position holders reducing theirs. In the short term, the market may oscillate and strengthen. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system, with enhanced moving average support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the weak area, the trend indicator shows that both long and short forces are rising, but the long - position advantage is expanding. It is recommended that SHFE Zinc ZN2509 will oscillate and strengthen [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc sheet production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons. The overall fundamentals are considered bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc is 22,550, and the basis is - 30, which is considered neutral [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 7, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons to 84,950 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 553 tons to 13,822 tons compared to the previous day, which is considered bullish [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - On August 7, the trading volume of SHFE zinc futures was 223,562 lots, with a turnover of 2.51926343 billion yuan, and the open interest was 209,722 lots, an increase of 7,676 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market - On August 7, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou increased by 140 yuan/ton to 17,180 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai increased by 180 yuan/ton to 22,550 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets increased by 4 yuan/ton to 4,092 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes increased by 6 yuan/ton to 4,500 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo increased by 180 yuan/ton to 23,060 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha increased by 180 yuan/ton to 27,590 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou increased by 150 yuan/ton to 20,850 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 7,729 yuan/ton [4]. 3.6 Inventory Statistics - From July 28 to August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 83,600 tons to 91,300 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [5]. 3.7 Futures Warehouse Receipts - On August 7, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 13,822 tons, a decrease of 553 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.8 LME Inventory - On August 7, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons to 84,950 tons [7]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 7, the processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 3,400 - 4,100 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.10 Member Trading and Position Ranking - On August 7, the total trading volume of SHFE zinc futures among members was 203,350 lots, an increase of 62,677 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position was 63,456 lots, an increase of 2,685 lots, and the total short - position was 61,994 lots, a decrease of 708 lots [18].
沪锌期货早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) is expected to oscillate and weaken in the short - term. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc in an oscillating trend, with a star - shaped candlestick, shrinking trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with the reduction of short positions being slightly more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, the long - position strength is rising, the short - position strength is falling, and the long - and short - position forces are starting to be in a stalemate [2][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The basis of spot zinc is +30 (spot price is 22,350), indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 1, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,975 tons to 100,825 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 76 tons to 14,982 tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish sign [2]. Market Quotes Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on August 1 - For the zinc futures contract 2509, the previous settlement price was 22,440, the opening price was 22,300, the highest price was 22,425, the lowest price was 22,280, the closing price was 22,320, the settlement reference price was 22,345, down 120 compared to the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 105,121 lots, a trading value of 1.17465677 billion yuan, and an open interest of 108,084 lots, a decrease of 2,397 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 1 - The price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc ingot was 22,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4,100 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4,490 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in a certain area was 7,761 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 21 - July 31, 2025) - On July 31, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 844,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to July 24 and an increase of 8,000 tons compared to July 28 [5]. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 1 - The total zinc warrant in the SHFE was 14,982 tons, a decrease of 76 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, Shanghai had 25 tons, Guangdong had 3,511 tons, Jiangsu had 0 tons, and Tianjin had 11,446 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 31 - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons, with the current inventory at 104,675 tons, and the注销占比 (cancellation ratio) was 45.55% [8]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 1 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, Kunming, Xi'an, and other places was mostly 17,020 yuan/ton, while in Hechi it was 16,820 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; in Longnan it was 16,970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Liangshan Prefecture it was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; in Chifeng it was 16,920 yuan/ton [10]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 1 - The price of 0 zinc ingots (≥99.995%) from different smelters varied. For example, Hunan Muchuan Taihai's was 22,660 yuan/ton, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry's was 22,800 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan's was 22,390 yuan/ton [14]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [16]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 1 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade varied by region. For example, in Xiangxi it was 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton; in Huludao it was 3,900 - 4,100 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 200 yuan/metal ton compared to before. The import processing fee for 48% - grade was 60 - 80 US dollars/kiloton, with an average of 70 US dollars/kiloton [18]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 1 - For the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with 31,843 lots, a decrease of 19,494 lots compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9,405 lots, a decrease of 471 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 12,265 lots, a decrease of 606 lots [20].
沪锌期货早报-20250801
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, increased trading volume, a reduction in long - positions, and an increase in short - positions. The market may maintain a volatile weakening trend in the short term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, but short - term indicators suggest a decline in bullish power and an increase in bearish power. The recommendation is that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will show a volatile weakening trend [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. Global zinc mine production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +5 with a spot price of 22,350, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On July 31, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 174 tons to 15,058 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Market - On July 31, for the zinc futures contracts, the 2508 contract had a settlement price of 22,650, an opening price of 22,585, a high of 22,640, a low of 22,280, and a closing price of 22,355, with a decrease of 295 or 285. The trading volume was 14,662 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,736 to 11,618 lots. Similar data are provided for other contracts such as 2509, 2510, etc. [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - On July 31, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,350 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 4,108 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,498 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,850 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,360 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Chenzhou was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From July 17 to July 28, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 74,200 tons to 83,600 tons. Compared with July 21, it increased by 8,100 tons; compared with July 24, it increased by 2,800 tons [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipts - On July 31, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 15,058 tons, a decrease of 174 tons. The warehouse receipts in Tianjin decreased by 174 tons to 11,522 tons, while other regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang had relatively stable or zero - change warehouse receipt situations [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On July 31, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons [2][8]. 3.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On July 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 380 yuan/ton [14]. 3.8 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July is 470,300 tons [16]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On July 31, zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the processing fees ranged from 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade had a processing fee of 70 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.10 Futures Company Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2509 on July 31, in terms of trading volume, the top three futures companies were Guotai Junan, CITIC Futures, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Yong'an Futures [20].
沪锌期货早报-20250725
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:08
Report Overview - The report is an early report on Shanghai Zinc futures dated July 25, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 will experience a period of sideways consolidation. The short - term view also suggests that the market will likely move sideways in the near term due to the previous day's trading pattern, where there was a star - line close, shrinking trading volume, long - position reduction, and a slight increase in short - positions [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56500 tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 4040600 tons. Overall, the fundamental situation is considered bullish [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price of zinc was 22910, and the basis was - 105, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On July 24, LME zinc inventory increased by 1575 tons to 116900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 150 tons to 11940 tons. The inventory situation is regarded as neutral [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a sideways movement, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upwards, suggesting a bullish trend [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [2]. 6. Futures Market Quotes - On July 24, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 230054 lots, with a total trading value of 2642362530 yuan. The open interest was 242784 lots, an increase of 1179 lots [3]. 7. Spot Market Quotes - On July 24, the prices of various zinc - related products in the domestic spot market showed different trends. Zinc concentrate prices in Liuzhou increased by 60 yuan/ton to 17470 yuan/ton, zinc ingot prices in Shanghai rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22910 yuan/ton, etc [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From July 14 to July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 7.42 million tons to 8.08 million tons. Compared with July 17, it increased by 0.66 million tons, and compared with July 21, it increased by 0.54 million tons [5]. 9. Zinc Futures Warrant Report - On July 24, the total zinc warrants on the futures exchange were 11940 tons, a decrease of 150 tons compared to the previous day. The warrants in Guangdong decreased by 99 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 51 tons [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On July 24, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1575 tons to 116900 tons. The registered warrants were 60975 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 55925 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 47.84% [7]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On July 24, zinc concentrate prices in most major domestic cities increased by 60 yuan/ton. The prices in most regions were around 17470 yuan/ton, except for some areas like Hechi (17570 yuan/ton) and Liangshan Prefecture (17670 yuan/ton) [8]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On July 24, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters all increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price from Chengchuan was 23240 yuan/ton, and that from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 27080 yuan/ton [12]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470300 tons [14]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - No specific content about zinc concentrate processing fees is provided in the part of the report, only the title is given [16]. 15. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - On July 24, for the zn2509 contract, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 237988 lots, a decrease of 32846 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - positions were 95451 lots, a decrease of 2453 lots, and the total short - positions were 80331 lots, an increase of 465 lots [17].
锌产业周报-20250603
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:03
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Global zinc sheet supply shortage, with a cumulative shortage of 101,600 tons from January to March, and inventory continuously decreasing [3] - Decrease in zinc inventories in LME and SHFE, and basis premium supports prices [3] Bearish Factors - Rebound in imported zinc concentrate TC combined with refinery restart, strengthening the expectation of supply surplus [3] - Consumption enters the traditional off - season, galvanized demand weakens, and downstream procurement is sluggish [3] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - The SHFE zinc ZN2507 contract will maintain short - term oscillatory consolidation, with fundamental bullish and bearish factors intertwined [3] Summary by Catalog Processing and Terminal Demand - Include data on galvanized sheet coils (market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and steel mill weekly output), galvanized sheet (strip) net export, die - cast zinc alloy net import, real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transaction area, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [5][6][11][12][13][14][15][17][18] Futures and Spot Market Review - Include data on internal and external zinc price trends, LME term structure, zinc ingot basis trends [21][23][27] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Include data on zinc concentrate imports, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventories in LME and SHFE [31][33][34][36][37][39]