锌产业周报 2026/2/27 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z002313 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任 ...

高盛预计，2026年和2027年全球锌需求将分别增长约2%。 该行表示，目前尚不认为需要中国持续出口锌来平衡全球市场，但指出中国将在缓解临时性供应紧张方 面发挥越来越重要的作用，未来几年出口套利机会可能更频繁出现。 2月12日（周四），高盛表示，预计今年全球锌市场将出现小幅过剩，主要受矿山供应增长和精矿去库 存推动，同时需求保持稳定。 但该投行在报告中指出，预计2027年和2028年矿山供应增速将显著放缓，届时中国以外市场将转为短 缺。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sharp decline in zinc prices this week was due to the cross - variety liquidity shock caused by the weakening of precious metals and the fundamental risks previously highlighted. The demand support in the zinc market in the first quarter is not strong, and there is an overvaluation risk when zinc prices are above 25,000 yuan/ton [3]. - From the perspective of fundamentals and market sentiment, zinc prices may continue to decline weakly before the Spring Festival, but the current price drop may help build momentum for the peak season market after the festival [3]. - In terms of fundamentals, short - term zinc supply continues to be marginally loose. The arrival volume of domestic zinc ore in January was high, and port inventories reached a three - month high. Some domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the planned zinc ingot production in February is expected to decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - On the downstream side, the decline in prices has marginally improved the willingness to purchase, but the procurement intensity of leading enterprises has not met market expectations. Downstream enterprises have entered the seasonal shutdown cycle for the Spring Festival, and the weighted operating rate has returned to the historical seasonal level. It is predicted that the peak inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly in late March [3]. - In terms of price, the current profit margin of smelters provides cost support at around 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of the internal - external price ratio, it is expected that the structure of weak domestic and strong external markets will continue in the first quarter. The uncertainty of European natural gas prices has postponed the expectation of overseas smelter复产, and some mines have lowered their production plans in Q4 2025, which provides continuous support for the external market. There is also a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The decline in zinc prices was due to precious metal weakness and fundamental risks. Before the Spring Festival, zinc prices may continue to decline, but it may benefit the post - festival market. The short - term supply is loose, and downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The expected peak inventory during the Spring Festival is about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March. The cost support is around 23,000 yuan/ton, and the internal - external price ratio may maintain a weak domestic and strong external structure [3]. 3.2 Historical Spring Festival Data - The relationship between inventory reduction time and zinc price trends is not significant, and it mainly depends on long - term supply - demand logic. Zinc prices mostly decline during the Spring Festival. Historically, the first quarter is often at a relatively high price level, and the sharp decline in pre - festival zinc prices this year may improve downstream purchasing willingness and increase the probability of rapid post - festival inventory reduction [4]. 3.3 Monthly Balance Sheet - It is estimated that the zinc ingot production in January 2026 will be about 532,000 tons, and there will be a small - scale maintenance in February, with a planned month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the zinc ingot export volume increased significantly in November and December 2025. In 2026, a low import volume is expected. It is predicted that the peak inventory of domestic zinc ingot social inventory during the Spring Festival will reach 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly from March to April [5]. 3.4 Main Industry News - Antamina's 2026 production guidance was further reduced by 70,000 metal tons. MMG's zinc ore production in Q4 2025 increased by 2% year - on - year. Glencore's 2025 zinc production increased by 7% year - on - year, and its 2026 production guidance is 700,000 - 740,000 tons. Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead - Zinc Mine announced a public tender for the sale of 50,000 tons of lead - zinc ore [7]. 3.5 Zinc Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - In December 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production was 287,800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.58% and a year - on - year increase of 5.85%. The cumulative production from January to December was 3.657 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production in January 2026 is expected to be 292,600 tons. The domestic zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized since late December, with an average of 1,500 yuan/metal ton this week. The import zinc concentrate processing fee index is 25.5 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the import profit of zinc ore has dropped to a small loss [10]. 3.6 Zinc Concentrate Import - In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and concentrates was 462,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 5.3305 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.1%. The main import sources are Peru, Australia, and South Africa. Due to the arrival cycle, the import volume in December decreased, but it is expected to increase significantly in January. As of February 4, 2026, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 64 yuan/ton, and the zinc ore import window has been closed since January 26 [14]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of January 29, the weekly inventory of seven major ports was 377,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons, reaching a three - month high. The arrival volume of zinc concentrate decreased significantly in December, but it increased again in early January after the import window opened in late December [18]. 3.8 Zinc Smelter Production - In January 2026, SMM's refined zinc production in China increased by 8,500 tons month - on - month to 560,600 tons, slightly lower than the initial expectation. The raw material inventory days of domestic smelters in January increased by 1.4 days to 23.7 days. Although the processing fee has only stopped falling and remains at a low level since December, the significant increase in zinc prices in January has repaired the smelter's profit. It is expected that the domestic zinc ingot production in February will decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month, and the production level is basically the same as that in January after excluding the difference in the number of days in the month. The actual demand will be the key to maintaining the smelter's profit, which needs to be verified during the post - Spring Festival peak season [24]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Import - In December 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of refined zinc and exported 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The main import countries are Kazakhstan and Iran, and the main export destinations are Taiwan, China, Singapore, and Hong Kong. The domestic zinc ingot spot export window has been closed since mid - December, and the import loss has expanded as of February 5. It is expected that the pattern of tight external and loose internal markets will continue in the first half of 2026, and there is a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [27]. 3.10 Downstream Zinc Processing - The weighted operating rate of domestic zinc downstream primary processing enterprises this week was 39.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.16 percentage points, returning to the historical seasonal level. The average holiday days of downstream enterprises are 22 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year. All enterprises will resume work from late February to early March [29]. - The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises on February 5 was 38.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points. The raw material inventory increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased. The average holiday days of 34 galvanizing sample enterprises are 20 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year, and they will resume production from late February to early March [31]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises on February 5 was 42.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. The average holiday days of 20 die - casting zinc alloy sample enterprises are 23.1 days, an increase of 1.1 days year - on - year, and they will resume work around the eighth day of the first lunar month or the Lantern Festival [39]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises on February 5 was 50.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased to the historical low level, and the finished product inventory increased to the historical high level. The industry shows obvious differentiation in holiday arrangements, and the downstream orders also show structural differences [45]. 3.11 Domestic Inventory - As of January 30, the total inventory of refined zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,997 tons. As of February 5, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot social inventory was 133,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,700 tons. It is expected that the domestic market will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period during the Spring Festival, with a peak inventory of about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March [52]. 3.12 LME Inventory - LME inventory has been increasing in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung warehouses since late October. It reached a recent peak of 112,300 tons on January 19 and then continued to decline slightly. As of February 5, the LME inventory was 107,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,950 tons. The LME cancellation warrant ratio rose to a three - month high, with 13,275 tons of cancelled warrants. The global visible inventory this week was 234,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,200 tons, showing a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [55]. 3.13 Structure & Arbitrage - Since late January, the domestic spot price has been at a slight discount to the Shanghai zinc main contract. On Thursday this week, the average price in Shanghai was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main 2603 contract, a narrowing of 25 yuan/ton compared with last week. The Contango structure of Shanghai zinc has significantly converged. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4 - 7 inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [59]. - The outer market has returned to the Contango structure since mid - December. As of February 5, the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of 20.75 US dollars/ton, and the discount range is narrowing. In the case of continuous inventory reduction overseas, the LME market shows an abnormal convex structure, and a positive arbitrage strategy can be considered [62]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the market concentration has increased slightly recently, and there is one position with a 30 - 39% warrant holding [63].

基本面方面，1月21日消息，国际铅锌研究组织（ILZSG）数据显示，11月全球锌市场缺口从10月的 2800吨扩大至7700吨。国内方面，当前北方部分锌矿仍处于冬季停产状态，不过近期进口锌精矿亏损大 幅收窄并转为正值，矿进口窗口在时隔半年后重新开启。另外，目前冶炼厂不含硫酸和副产品的亏损扩 大，12月国内冶炼厂减产规模进一步扩大。随着国内冶炼厂减产以及进口锌精矿比价的修复，国内锌精 矿市场供需情绪近期有所回暖。但目前国产锌精矿加工费仅暂时止跌，尚未出现实质性反弹。消费端， 环保预警解除后，前期受限企业恢复生产，然而北方天气已进入严寒阶段，终端采购积极性不高，企业 对后续需求及春节前补货备库持谨慎态度，这在一定程度上限制了锌价上方空间。 整体来看，期市氛围回暖、周边品种普涨对锌价形成提振，且沪锌社库小幅去化提供了支撑，短期锌价 将呈现偏强震荡态势，今日现锌价格或上涨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 【ccmn.cn摘要】锡镍领涨带动有色市场，隔周伦锌随板块收涨 1.11%；期市氛围回暖、周边品种普涨 提振锌价，且沪锌社库小幅去化提供支撑，今现锌或上涨。 【ccmn.cn锌期 ...

文 | 柳晓怡 来源 | 紫金天风有色研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 周四早间消息，LME暂停了韩国锌业KZ/YP锌及铅的交割业务。盘面受消息影响，一度上冲，沪锌 主力涨超25000元/吨一线，最高涨幅达4.21%。 据官方回复，KZ已于去年提交了其供应链责任报告，但某些方面未能达到LME的监管要求。KZ已提 交改进计划并正等待反馈，有望在4月14日前完成最终定稿。 我们认为，本身作为高升水品牌，KZ前往LME交割的货源并不多，另外，该规定或更多影响LME市 场与其他市场价差，并不会直接改变锌市场供需。 近期不管是技术面还是基本面，锌价都呈现超买/高估状态。 基本面来看，需求端，目前有色基本都面临高价对需求的抑制的问题。国内自元旦以来锌下游开工 低于季节性表现，自上周四以来现货升水持续下调。供应端，锌矿进口窗口持续敞口，到港量环比 显著回升，原料端宽松预期逐步升温。尽管锌矿加工费仍处于历史低位，但锌价中枢上移已对冶炼 厂利润形成实质性修复，当前仅硫酸副产品贡献的利润已推动炼厂盈利逼近盈亏平衡线。在此背景 下，需求端尚未形成有效支撑，资金面止盈诉求或逐步升温，成为短期锌价上行的重要制约因素。 因此 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年1月05日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23450，基差+70；中性。 3、库存：1月2日LME锌库存较上日减少1300吨至106325吨，12月31日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加32吨至42419吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive line. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. It was a volume - shrinking rebound, indicating that long - position holders were actively exiting while short - position holders were also on the sidelines. The market may experience short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the strong zone, while the trend indicator declined, suggesting a decrease in long - position strength and an increase in short - position strength, with the advantage of long - position holders narrowing. The Shanghai Zinc ZN2512 is expected to have a volatile rebound [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, presenting a bullish signal [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,760, and the basis was +80, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On November 12, the LME zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 35,875 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 372 tons to 70,890 tons, indicating a bearish factor [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upwards, a bullish sign [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main positions were net short, and the short positions decreased, which was a bearish signal [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on November 12 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, details such as opening price, closing price, trading volume, and open interest were provided. For example, for the zn2512 contract, the opening price was 22,565, the closing price was 22,680, the trading volume was 71,426 lots, and the open interest was 105,905 lots with a decrease of 1,570 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on November 12 - The domestic spot market quotes included zinc concentrate and zinc ingots. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,700 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate comprehensive TC was 100 US dollars/dry ton, unchanged. The price of 0 zinc in different regions varied, such as 22,760 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 22,530 yuan/ton in Guangdong (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton), 22,655 yuan/ton in Tianjin (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton), and 22,745 yuan/ton in Zhejiang (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton) [4]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Main Markets - From October 30 to November 10, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 163,200 tons to 161,500 tons. Compared with November 3, the inventory decreased by 800 tons; compared with November 6, it decreased by 100 tons [5]. 3.9 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on November 12 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 70,890 tons, an increase of 372 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 498 tons, while those in Tianjin decreased by 126 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 12 - The LME zinc inventory had different changes at various locations. The total inventory was 35,875 tons, an increase of 575 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 31,950 tons, and the注销 warehouse receipts were 3,925 tons, with a注销 ratio of 10.94% [7]. 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on November 12 - The zinc concentrate processing fees varied by region. For domestic 50% - grade zinc concentrate, the average processing fee was generally around 2,700 yuan/metal ton, with a decrease of 100 - 200 yuan/metal ton in most regions. The imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate processing fee was 100 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.12 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on November 12 - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume of members was 113,074 lots, a decrease of 11,512 lots. The total long - position volume was 73,076 lots, a decrease of 1,076 lots, and the total short - position volume was 70,165 lots, a decrease of 859 lots. Leading futures companies like CITIC Futures had significant positions in trading volume, long positions, and short positions [18]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production was 2.88% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The export window for zinc ingots is open, and some domestic zinc ingots are flowing out. The Shanghai zinc futures price has remained high, but the weak fundamental consumption is expected to suppress the subsequent zinc price. The Shanghai-London ratio is expected to remain stable next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - **Supply - Side**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) decreased by 7.02% to 2650 yuan/metal ton. The import zinc concentrate TC continued to deteriorate, with the ordinary zinc ore offer at 60 - 100 dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloy开工 rates decreased by 4.19%, 0.96%, and 2.95% respectively. The decrease in the galvanizing开工 rate was due to environmental protection restrictions in some regions, which are expected to end soon. The die - casting zinc alloy开工 rate decreased due to production problems in some enterprises and the rising zinc price [6]. - **Demand - Side**: In the south, the improvement in weather led to increased orders for some terminal projects such as greenhouse pipes and transportation. Export orders were relatively stable due to tariff negotiations [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.30 tons to 15.87 tons compared to November 3. The Shanghai and Guangdong inventories decreased due to downstream pick - up and exports. The bonded area inventory decreased to 0.38 tons, and the LME zinc inventory dropped to 0 tons. The spot trading was average, and the spot premium was expected to remain weak [6]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The Shanghai - London ratio rose to around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The London zinc price was under pressure from the strong US dollar but was supported by the low inventory. The Shanghai zinc price rose rapidly but fluctuated due to weak domestic consumption. In terms of spot prices, the Guangdong spot premium was expected to continue to fluctuate, the Shanghai spot premium was expected to remain volatile, and the Tianjin spot premium might rise slightly after the end of environmental protection restrictions [8][12][13]. 2. Supply Side - **Processing Fee**: In November, the domestic zinc ore processing fee declined rapidly, increasing the raw material procurement pressure on smelters. The SMM predicted a slight decrease in zinc ingot production in November compared to October, but the overall supply remained strong. The zinc ingot export window has been open since October and November, and the export expectation has boosted the domestic zinc price [16]. - **Production and Import**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 400.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. In September, the import of zinc concentrate was 50.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.0% and a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. The import of refined zinc and zinc alloy decreased slightly year - on - year. In September, the import of refined zinc was 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 57.0% [32]. 3. Demand Side - **Downstream Prices and Production**: The report provided historical price trends of downstream products such as zinc alloy, zinc oxide, and hot - dip galvanizing. The weekly production and开工 rates of downstream industries such as galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide were also presented, but specific changes were not detailed [36][39]. 4. Inventory Changes - **Futures Inventory**: The LME zinc inventory dropped to 0 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.10%. - **Spot Inventory**: The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the bonded area inventory also decreased due to exports [6][44][46]. 5. Macroeconomic Influences - The report presented historical trends of exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio, the US dollar index, and the US federal funds target rate, but did not elaborate on their specific impacts on the zinc market [51].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2511) are expected to oscillate weakly. The conclusion is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors, including the fundamental supply - demand situation, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions of major players [2][20]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1515 million tons and consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons and consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price of zinc was 21,860 yuan, and the basis was +0, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 24, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,375 tons to 44,400 tons, while SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 744 tons to 57,357 tons [2][6]. 4. Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing downward, presenting a bearish signal [2]. 5. Major Player Positions - The major players held a net long position, but the long positions decreased, showing a bullish tendency [2]. 6. Futures Market Quotes on September 24 - For the zinc futures contract, different delivery months had various price movements. For example, the 2510 contract had a previous settlement price of 21,945 yuan, a closing price of 21,845 yuan, and a decrease of 100 yuan. The trading volume was 38,405 lots, and the trading value was 420.67467 million yuan [3]. 7. Domestic Spot Market Quotes on September 24 - The prices of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide all showed different degrees of decline [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Major Domestic Markets - From September 11 to September 22, the total zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets changed. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 50,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 37,000 tons [5]. 9. Zinc Warrant Report on September 24 - The total zinc warrants on the SHFE were 57,357 tons, an increase of 744 tons. Different regions had different changes in warrants, such as an increase of 500 tons in Guangdong and an increase of 394 tons in Tianjin [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on September 24 - The total LME zinc inventory was 44,400 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 30,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 13,675 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 30.80% [8]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Prices in Major Domestic Cities on September 24 - Zinc concentrate prices in major domestic cities showed a downward trend, with most prices dropping by 20 - 50 yuan per ton [9]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices on September 24 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 60 yuan per ton [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The production of refined zinc in June 2025 was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on September 23 - Zinc concentrate processing fees varied by region. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the average processing fee was 3,800 - 4,100 yuan per metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 100 US dollars per dry ton [17]. 15. Ranking of Zinc Trading and Positions of SHFE Members on September 24 - For the zn2511 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and COFCO Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [18]. 16. Short - term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating downward trend. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions increased, with short positions increasing more. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, and short - term indicators showed a weak trend. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2511 contract will oscillate weakly [20].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Zinc 2510 contract closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.13%, with reduced volume and positions. The 10 - 11 spread was -5. Domestic processing fees have limited upward momentum, and the SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. By - product sulfuric acid prices declined due to supply recovery. Despite a contraction in comprehensive profits, they remain at a relatively high level. In September, more smelters are under maintenance, and some secondary zinc enterprises face tight raw material supply and rising prices, so the monthly output is expected to decline by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons, with the supply side remaining generally loose. After the parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China were lifted, and the operating rates in the primary consumption sectors increased month - on - month. However, the improvement in the consumption side is slowly transmitted upstream, and social inventories continued to accumulate on Monday, with a slower accumulation pace. The domestic and foreign inventory performances are differentiated, with LME zinc inventories dropping to around 50,000 tons, and concerns about overseas refined zinc supply have caused a spot premium, strengthening the 0 - 3B. Weak US employment data has consolidated the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the rising center of London zinc has a driving effect on the domestic market. However, the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc and the absence of an inflection point in inventory reduction result in insufficient upward driving force, maintaining a range - bound pattern, with a reference range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, changes, change rates, positions, and position changes of Shanghai Zinc 2509, 2510, and 2511 contracts are presented. Shanghai Zinc 2510 closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.13%, with positions decreasing by 5,694 to 92,003 hands [7] - **Processing Fees and Supply**: Domestic processing fees have limited upward momentum, with local quotes showing a narrow decline but no downward trend. The SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. Sulfuric acid prices declined, and although comprehensive profits contracted, they are still at a relatively high level. In September, smelter maintenance increased, and some secondary zinc enterprises faced raw material issues, with expected monthly output dropping by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons [7] - **Consumption and Inventory**: After the parade, consumption in the primary sectors improved, but the improvement was slowly transmitted upstream. Social inventories continued to accumulate on Monday, with a slower pace. LME zinc inventories dropped to around 50,000 tons, and overseas supply concerns led to a spot premium [7] Group 5: Industry News - On September 15, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc, 1 zinc, and high - end brands like Shuangyan in different regions (including Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong) are reported, along with their quotes relative to the SMM average price, the 2510 contract, and the Shanghai spot price [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the SMM seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory (in 10,000 tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE inter - month spread, with data sources from SMM, Wind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][13]