沪锌期货早报-2025年9月25日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21860，基差+0；中性。 3、库存：9月24日LME锌库存较上日减少1375吨至44400吨，9月24日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加744吨至57357吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 16 日 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2509 | 22260 | 22235 | 22270 | 22200 | -5 | -0.02 | 5285 | -140 | | 沪锌 | 2510 | 22345 | 22310 | 22365 | 22255 | 30 | 0.13 | 92003 | -5694 | | 沪锌 | 2511 | 22365 | 22315 | 22380 | 22275 | 20 | 0.09 | 83309 | 1925 | 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccb ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's potential rate - cut in September and the weakening US dollar are favorable for risk assets, but the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes may disrupt market risk appetite. The domestic economy has the basis to achieve the annual growth target, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [2][87]. - Zinc concentrate supply is steadily recovering, with the growth of domestic ore processing fees slowing down and the acceleration of the recovery of imported ore processing fees. In September, due to more refinery maintenance plans, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% to 60.98 tons, and zinc ingot imports still face large losses [2][87]. - Zinc demand is differentiated. Infrastructure construction is expected to speed up, and the issuance of the third batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds supports the domestic sales of durable goods. The delay of Sino - US tariff policies eases the export pressure of related products, and the concentrated grid - connection of deep - sea projects promotes the development of the wind power industry. However, the real estate market is weak, photovoltaic demand is overdrawn, and galvanized sheets are affected by anti - dumping, which will drag down consumption [2][87]. - Overall, the Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies provide support for zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to whether the improvement in consumption can be effectively realized [2][87][88] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level, with a monthly decline of 0.92%. London zinc's center of gravity moved slightly upward, with a monthly increase of 1.88% [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is mixed. Employment is cooling, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's stance has turned dovish. The probability of a rate cut in September is high, and the US dollar is in a weak position, which is favorable for risk assets. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes will affect market risk appetite [8][9][10]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - The eurozone's manufacturing prosperity is continuously recovering, inflation is stable, and the employment market is improving. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, but the political crisis in France may put pressure on the euro [11][13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Situation - Most domestic economic indicators slowed down in July, but exports showed strong resilience. The annual growth target can still be achieved, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply is recovering. Overseas zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations [28][32][33]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, from January to June, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Domestic production increased, while overseas production decreased. In September, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% month - on - month, and zinc ingot imports are expected to decline [38][44][45]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - From January to June 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased year - on - year. In the overseas market, the improvement of real estate and automobile consumption is uncertain. In the domestic market, the start - up of downstream primary processing enterprises in September is expected to improve, and the export of galvanized sheets has resilience. Traditional consumption sectors such as infrastructure and real estate show different trends, and emerging consumption sectors such as new energy have both opportunities and challenges [52][59][61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - In August, LME zinc inventory decreased rapidly, and domestic social inventory increased seasonally. In September, domestic social inventory is expected to turn to destocking [85]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies support zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to the improvement of consumption [87][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of -1.02% and an amplitude of 1.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,275 yuan/ton. Looking ahead, macro - factors show that the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, hitting a new high in more than three years and increasing inflation pressure. In terms of fundamentals, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has risen, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to increase, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to a further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating the growth of supply. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. After the recent decline in zinc prices, downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, and the overall transaction has improved. Domestic social inventories have slightly decreased, and the spot premium has remained stable. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for domestic zinc prices. Technically, the price is adjusting at a low position of holdings, and attention should be paid to the support at 22,200. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of -1.02% and an amplitude of 1.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,275 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include the high US manufacturing PMI and inflation pressure. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: The price of Shanghai Zinc futures declined this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.02%. As of August 21, 2025, the closing price of LME Zinc was 2,767 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 75.5 US dollars/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 2.66% [9]. - **Net Position and Open Interest**: As of August 22, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was -7,709 lots, a decrease of 26,519 lots from August 15, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 211,313 lots, a decrease of 4,138 lots from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.92% [12]. - **Price Spreads**: As of August 22, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025 [16]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.11%. The spot discount was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of August 21, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was -7.54 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.98 US dollars/ton from August 14, 2025 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 69,375 tons, a decrease of 8,075 tons from August 14, 2025, with a decline of 10.43%. As of August 22, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 77,838 tons, an increase of 1,035 tons from last week, with an increase of 1.35%. As of August 21, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 117,600 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from August 14, 2025, with an increase of 6.91% [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In May 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In July 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 501,424.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [31]. - **Supply - Side**: In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a decrease of 48,700 tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 4.18%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1605 million tons, an increase of 36,800 tons from the same period last year, with an increase of 3.27%. The global refined zinc gap was 44,100 tons. In July 2025, the zinc output was 617,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc output was 4.166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In July 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 17,903.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. The refined zinc export volume was 406.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.11% [36][40][43]. - **Downstream**: - Galvanized sheet (strip): From January to June 2025, the inventory of domestic major enterprises' galvanized sheet (strip) was 790,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.31%. In July 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheet (strip) was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.92%. The export volume was 346,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.29% [46]. - Real estate: From January to July 2025, the new housing construction area was 352.0614 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 250.3441 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.728655 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 791.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [51][52]. - Infrastructure: In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from last month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [57]. - Home appliances: In July 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.7307 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to July, the cumulative refrigerator output was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In July 2025, the air - conditioner output was 20.5965 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to July, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [61]. - Automobile: In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64].

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - The main contract of SHFE zinc 2510 closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.14% increase, with reduced volume and positions. The positions decreased by 568 lots to 110,426 lots. - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, with the entire decline from Singapore. The 0 - 3 spread was C9.33. - The domestic zinc market has a core contradiction of abundant concentrates and sufficient refined zinc, and social inventory has been accumulating, reflecting the surplus pressure. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year increase in imported zinc concentrates was 45.2%. In August, the processing fee continued to rise, with the imported zinc concentrate index at 90.3 US dollars/dry ton and the domestic zinc concentrate TC stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices have expanded smelters' profit margins. In August, there were few domestic maintenance activities, and the refined zinc output may increase to 621,500 tons. - The downstream is in the off - season, and although there are policy supports on the demand side, the weakness is still obvious. The operating load in the primary consumption field remains at a low level. Overall, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continues. The domestic market is difficult to fall deeply due to the influence of the overseas market. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season in late August, and the callback space of SHFE zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations [7]. Group 3: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On August 21, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,240 - 22,305 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was 22,360 - 22,415 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream price of 0 zinc was 22,220 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at par to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,210 - 22,280 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was 22,230 - 22,310 yuan/ton. 0 zinc was generally quoted at a discount of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and Zijin was quoted at a discount of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [8][9]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,150 - 22,255 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on the seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory of SMM, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE monthly spread, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14]

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The core contradiction of abundant zinc ore and refined zinc in the zinc market is more prominent during the off - season of demand, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The zinc market supply remains loose, and the demand is hard to improve substantially as it has not stepped out of the off - season. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the weak fundamental pattern is difficult to resonate with it. The Shanghai zinc has given back its previous gains, and the current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues. The domestic market is driven by the overseas market and is unlikely to fall deeply. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season for demand in the second half of the month, and the callback space of Shanghai zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations as the main trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc (2509) closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan, a decline of 0.80%, with reduced volume and positions, and the position was 69,630 lots. The 2510 contract closed at 22,360 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan, a decline of 0.82%, and the position increased by 5,691 lots to 96,755 lots. The 2511 contract closed at 22,360 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan, a decline of 0.84%, and the position decreased by 63,418 lots to 27,646 lots [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of zinc ore is loose, which pushes up the processing fee. The import zinc concentrate index is reported at 82.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the monthly average TC of domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remains stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices year - on - year drive the continuous expansion of smelters' profit margins, and smelters have sufficient production enthusiasm. The domestic refined zinc output in August may increase to 621,500 tons, and the supply side remains abundant. The downstream off - season characteristics are significant. Although there are demand - supporting policies, the weakness is hard to cover in the short term, and the operating load in the primary consumption field is still in a weak range [7] 2. Industry News - **August 18, 2025 Transactions**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 22,305 - 22,415 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was traded at 22,385 - 22,525 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was 22,235 - 22,345 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a discount of 20 - 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Honglu - v quoted at par to the 2509 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the high - price brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 60 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8] - **Regional Market Conditions**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 22,285 - 22,375 yuan/ton, and the regular brands in Ningbo quoted a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at par to the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,270 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded at 22,310 - 22,420 yuan/ton. 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 22,210 - 22,3320 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 22,950 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22,225 - 22,380 yuan/ton, and the mainstream brands quoted a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot [8][9] 3. Data Overview - Not elaborated in the provided content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Zinc ore's visible inventory is decreasing marginally, but the TC of zinc concentrate is still on an upward trend. The production schedule of zinc smelting is expected to be high, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is rising rapidly. Downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, and the domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The registered zinc ingot warrants overseas have reached a new low since 2024, but the reduction rate has slowed down slightly, the monthly spread of LME zinc has decreased marginally, and the structural disturbances in the LME market are gradually subsiding. In the medium term, the scenario of industry oversupply remains unchanged, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.15% at 22,521 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 215,500 lots for unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Zinc 3S rose 18.5 to $2,835.5/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total open interest of 193,700 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,450 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -50 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -60 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis of -70 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $90/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 213,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Industry Information**: South American mining company Nexa Resources announced that its Cerro Pasco integrated mining area, which includes the Atacocha and El Porvenir mines, was partially shut down temporarily due to an illegal blockade by a small number of people from the San Juan de Milpo community. The mines involved have an annual zinc production of 63,000 - 74,000 metal tons and lead production of 34,000 - 39,000 metal tons, and the current production guidance remains unchanged [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of -32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of -13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, the zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 23.1% and a month - on - month change of 3%. From January to July, the total zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -17.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.5% [33][35]. 4. Demand Analysis The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In June 2025, the apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [39][41]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [55]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Zinc has rebounded again. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [69].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Lido Factors**: Low domestic zinc ingot inventory supports prices, and China's apparent zinc consumption shows steady growth with strong demand [3] - **Negative Factors**: Supply growth is accelerating, with new capacity releases and restarts leading to oversupply, and a slight inventory build weakens the fundamental pattern [3] - **Trading Advisory View**: Institutions are bullish on SHFE zinc due to favorable inventory conditions [3] Summary by Directory Processing and End - User Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: Market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly production, and net export data are presented seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [5][6] - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: Net import data is provided seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [6] - **Color - Coated Sheet (Strip) and Zinc Oxide**: Net export data is shown seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [8][9][10] - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transactions are presented as cumulative year - on - year and seasonal data from 2015 - 2025 [11][13][15] - **Infrastructure**: Cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in various sectors from 2020 - 2024 are provided [17][18] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume, TC, and raw material inventory days are presented seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [20][22][26] - **Zinc Ingot**: Monthly production, production + import volume, and inventory data in various forms (LME, SHFE, etc.) are shown seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [23][24][27] - **Refined Zinc Enterprises**: Production profit and processing fee data are provided from 2022 - 2024 [23] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Price Trends**: Domestic and international zinc price trends are presented from 2023 - 2025 [29] - **Volume and Open Interest**: Volume and open interest data of SHFE zinc futures are provided from 2023 - 2025 [30] - **Price Relationships**: Relationships between LME zinc price and US dollar index, LME zinc spreads, and zinc ingot basis data are presented [31][33][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, increased trading volume, a reduction in long - positions, and an increase in short - positions. The market may maintain a volatile weakening trend in the short term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, but short - term indicators suggest a decline in bullish power and an increase in bearish power. The recommendation is that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will show a volatile weakening trend [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. Global zinc mine production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +5 with a spot price of 22,350, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On July 31, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 174 tons to 15,058 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Market - On July 31, for the zinc futures contracts, the 2508 contract had a settlement price of 22,650, an opening price of 22,585, a high of 22,640, a low of 22,280, and a closing price of 22,355, with a decrease of 295 or 285. The trading volume was 14,662 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,736 to 11,618 lots. Similar data are provided for other contracts such as 2509, 2510, etc. [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - On July 31, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,350 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 4,108 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,498 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,850 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,360 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Chenzhou was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From July 17 to July 28, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 74,200 tons to 83,600 tons. Compared with July 21, it increased by 8,100 tons; compared with July 24, it increased by 2,800 tons [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipts - On July 31, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 15,058 tons, a decrease of 174 tons. The warehouse receipts in Tianjin decreased by 174 tons to 11,522 tons, while other regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang had relatively stable or zero - change warehouse receipt situations [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On July 31, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons [2][8]. 3.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On July 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 380 yuan/ton [14]. 3.8 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July is 470,300 tons [16]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On July 31, zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the processing fees ranged from 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade had a processing fee of 70 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.10 Futures Company Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2509 on July 31, in terms of trading volume, the top three futures companies were Guotai Junan, CITIC Futures, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Yong'an Futures [20].

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai zinc futures on July 28, 2025, released by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and decline, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, more so for the long - side. The market may oscillate and decline in the short - term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining in the overbought area, while the trend indicator shows increasing long - side strength and decreasing short - side strength. It is recommended that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will oscillate and decline [20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons and consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons and consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2] Basis Analysis - The spot price is 22,830, and the basis is - 55, indicating a neutral situation [2] Inventory Analysis - On July 25, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,125 tons to 115,775 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,349 tons to 13,289 tons compared to the previous day, a neutral situation [2] Futures Market Analysis - On July 25, for different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, the 2509 contract had a settlement price of 22,980, an opening price of 22,925, a high of 22,935, a low of 22,755, and a closing price of 22,885, with a decline of 95 in one measure and 135 in another [3] Spot Market Analysis - On July 25, in the domestic spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was 17,400 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), zinc ingots in Shanghai were 22,830 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), galvanized sheets in China were 4,089 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), and galvanized pipes in China were 4,457 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton) [4] Inventory Statistics - From July 14 to July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 74,200 tons to 80,800 tons. Compared with July 17, it increased by 6,600 tons, and compared with July 21, it increased by 5,400 tons [5] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On July 25, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions remained relatively stable. For example, in Fift alle, the processing fee for 50% zinc concentrate was 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton [17] Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2509 contract on July 25, in terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan had the highest volume of 55,468, an increase of 5,329 compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures held 24,115, a decrease of 18. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures held 11,500, an increase of 748 [18]