锌市场供需

Search documents
沪锌市场周报:逢低采买小幅去库,预计锌价震荡企稳-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:31
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪锌市场周报 逢低采买小幅去库 预计锌价震荡企稳 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源:瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾:本周沪锌主力震荡下跌,周线涨跌幅为-1.02%,振幅1.29%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价 22275元/吨。 行情展望:宏观面,美国8月制造业PMI初值53.3,意外创三年多新高,通胀压力加剧。工信部等部 门:进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序,遏制低价无序竞争。基本面,国内外锌矿进口量上升,锌矿加 工费持续上升,叠加硫酸价格上涨明显,冶炼厂利润进一步修复,生产积极性增加;各地新增产能 陆续释放,叠加前期检修产能复产,供应增长有所加快。目前进口亏损继续扩大,进口锌流入量下 降。需求端,下游处于进入需求淡季,加工企业开工率同比有所下降。近期锌价下跌,下游逢低按 需采购为主,但整体成交有所改善,国内社库小幅下降,现货升水持稳;海外LME库存下降明显, LME现货升水下调,对国 ...
锌期货日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:22
Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - The main contract of SHFE zinc 2510 closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.14% increase, with reduced volume and positions. The positions decreased by 568 lots to 110,426 lots. - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, with the entire decline from Singapore. The 0 - 3 spread was C9.33. - The domestic zinc market has a core contradiction of abundant concentrates and sufficient refined zinc, and social inventory has been accumulating, reflecting the surplus pressure. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year increase in imported zinc concentrates was 45.2%. In August, the processing fee continued to rise, with the imported zinc concentrate index at 90.3 US dollars/dry ton and the domestic zinc concentrate TC stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices have expanded smelters' profit margins. In August, there were few domestic maintenance activities, and the refined zinc output may increase to 621,500 tons. - The downstream is in the off - season, and although there are policy supports on the demand side, the weakness is still obvious. The operating load in the primary consumption field remains at a low level. Overall, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continues. The domestic market is difficult to fall deeply due to the influence of the overseas market. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season in late August, and the callback space of SHFE zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations [7]. Group 3: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On August 21, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,240 - 22,305 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was 22,360 - 22,415 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream price of 0 zinc was 22,220 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at par to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,210 - 22,280 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was 22,230 - 22,310 yuan/ton. 0 zinc was generally quoted at a discount of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and Zijin was quoted at a discount of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [8][9]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,150 - 22,255 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on the seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory of SMM, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE monthly spread, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14]
建信期货锌期货日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:37
Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The core contradiction of abundant zinc ore and refined zinc in the zinc market is more prominent during the off - season of demand, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The zinc market supply remains loose, and the demand is hard to improve substantially as it has not stepped out of the off - season. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the weak fundamental pattern is difficult to resonate with it. The Shanghai zinc has given back its previous gains, and the current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues. The domestic market is driven by the overseas market and is unlikely to fall deeply. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season for demand in the second half of the month, and the callback space of Shanghai zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations as the main trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc (2509) closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan, a decline of 0.80%, with reduced volume and positions, and the position was 69,630 lots. The 2510 contract closed at 22,360 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan, a decline of 0.82%, and the position increased by 5,691 lots to 96,755 lots. The 2511 contract closed at 22,360 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan, a decline of 0.84%, and the position decreased by 63,418 lots to 27,646 lots [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply of zinc ore is loose, which pushes up the processing fee. The import zinc concentrate index is reported at 82.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the monthly average TC of domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remains stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices year - on - year drive the continuous expansion of smelters' profit margins, and smelters have sufficient production enthusiasm. The domestic refined zinc output in August may increase to 621,500 tons, and the supply side remains abundant. The downstream off - season characteristics are significant. Although there are demand - supporting policies, the weakness is hard to cover in the short term, and the operating load in the primary consumption field is still in a weak range [7] 2. Industry News - **August 18, 2025 Transactions**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 22,305 - 22,415 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was traded at 22,385 - 22,525 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was 22,235 - 22,345 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a discount of 20 - 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Honglu - v quoted at par to the 2509 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the high - price brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 60 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8] - **Regional Market Conditions**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 22,285 - 22,375 yuan/ton, and the regular brands in Ningbo quoted a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at par to the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,270 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded at 22,310 - 22,420 yuan/ton. 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 22,210 - 22,3320 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 22,950 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22,225 - 22,380 yuan/ton, and the mainstream brands quoted a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot [8][9] 3. Data Overview - Not elaborated in the provided content
锌周报:海外仓单仍扰动,国内产业弱现实-20250816
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-16 14:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Zinc ore's visible inventory is decreasing marginally, but the TC of zinc concentrate is still on an upward trend. The production schedule of zinc smelting is expected to be high, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is rising rapidly. Downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, and the domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The registered zinc ingot warrants overseas have reached a new low since 2024, but the reduction rate has slowed down slightly, the monthly spread of LME zinc has decreased marginally, and the structural disturbances in the LME market are gradually subsiding. In the medium term, the scenario of industry oversupply remains unchanged, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.15% at 22,521 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 215,500 lots for unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Zinc 3S rose 18.5 to $2,835.5/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total open interest of 193,700 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,450 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -50 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -60 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis of -70 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $90/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 213,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Industry Information**: South American mining company Nexa Resources announced that its Cerro Pasco integrated mining area, which includes the Atacocha and El Porvenir mines, was partially shut down temporarily due to an illegal blockade by a small number of people from the San Juan de Milpo community. The mines involved have an annual zinc production of 63,000 - 74,000 metal tons and lead production of 34,000 - 39,000 metal tons, and the current production guidance remains unchanged [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of -32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of -13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, the zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 23.1% and a month - on - month change of 3%. From January to July, the total zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -17.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.5% [33][35]. 4. Demand Analysis The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In June 2025, the apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [39][41]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [55]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Zinc has rebounded again. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [69].
锌产业周报-20250803
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 01:45
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Lido Factors**: Low domestic zinc ingot inventory supports prices, and China's apparent zinc consumption shows steady growth with strong demand [3] - **Negative Factors**: Supply growth is accelerating, with new capacity releases and restarts leading to oversupply, and a slight inventory build weakens the fundamental pattern [3] - **Trading Advisory View**: Institutions are bullish on SHFE zinc due to favorable inventory conditions [3] Summary by Directory Processing and End - User Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: Market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly production, and net export data are presented seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [5][6] - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: Net import data is provided seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [6] - **Color - Coated Sheet (Strip) and Zinc Oxide**: Net export data is shown seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [8][9][10] - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transactions are presented as cumulative year - on - year and seasonal data from 2015 - 2025 [11][13][15] - **Infrastructure**: Cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in various sectors from 2020 - 2024 are provided [17][18] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume, TC, and raw material inventory days are presented seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [20][22][26] - **Zinc Ingot**: Monthly production, production + import volume, and inventory data in various forms (LME, SHFE, etc.) are shown seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [23][24][27] - **Refined Zinc Enterprises**: Production profit and processing fee data are provided from 2022 - 2024 [23] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Price Trends**: Domestic and international zinc price trends are presented from 2023 - 2025 [29] - **Volume and Open Interest**: Volume and open interest data of SHFE zinc futures are provided from 2023 - 2025 [30] - **Price Relationships**: Relationships between LME zinc price and US dollar index, LME zinc spreads, and zinc ingot basis data are presented [31][33][36]
沪锌期货早报-20250801
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, increased trading volume, a reduction in long - positions, and an increase in short - positions. The market may maintain a volatile weakening trend in the short term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, but short - term indicators suggest a decline in bullish power and an increase in bearish power. The recommendation is that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will show a volatile weakening trend [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. Global zinc mine production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +5 with a spot price of 22,350, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On July 31, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 174 tons to 15,058 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Market - On July 31, for the zinc futures contracts, the 2508 contract had a settlement price of 22,650, an opening price of 22,585, a high of 22,640, a low of 22,280, and a closing price of 22,355, with a decrease of 295 or 285. The trading volume was 14,662 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,736 to 11,618 lots. Similar data are provided for other contracts such as 2509, 2510, etc. [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - On July 31, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,350 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 4,108 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,498 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,850 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,360 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Chenzhou was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From July 17 to July 28, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 74,200 tons to 83,600 tons. Compared with July 21, it increased by 8,100 tons; compared with July 24, it increased by 2,800 tons [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipts - On July 31, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 15,058 tons, a decrease of 174 tons. The warehouse receipts in Tianjin decreased by 174 tons to 11,522 tons, while other regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang had relatively stable or zero - change warehouse receipt situations [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On July 31, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons [2][8]. 3.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On July 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 380 yuan/ton [14]. 3.8 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July is 470,300 tons [16]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On July 31, zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the processing fees ranged from 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade had a processing fee of 70 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.10 Futures Company Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2509 on July 31, in terms of trading volume, the top three futures companies were Guotai Junan, CITIC Futures, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Yong'an Futures [20].
沪锌期货早报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:43
Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai zinc futures on July 28, 2025, released by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and decline, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, more so for the long - side. The market may oscillate and decline in the short - term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining in the overbought area, while the trend indicator shows increasing long - side strength and decreasing short - side strength. It is recommended that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will oscillate and decline [20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons and consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons and consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2] Basis Analysis - The spot price is 22,830, and the basis is - 55, indicating a neutral situation [2] Inventory Analysis - On July 25, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,125 tons to 115,775 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,349 tons to 13,289 tons compared to the previous day, a neutral situation [2] Futures Market Analysis - On July 25, for different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, the 2509 contract had a settlement price of 22,980, an opening price of 22,925, a high of 22,935, a low of 22,755, and a closing price of 22,885, with a decline of 95 in one measure and 135 in another [3] Spot Market Analysis - On July 25, in the domestic spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was 17,400 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), zinc ingots in Shanghai were 22,830 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), galvanized sheets in China were 4,089 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), and galvanized pipes in China were 4,457 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton) [4] Inventory Statistics - From July 14 to July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 74,200 tons to 80,800 tons. Compared with July 17, it increased by 6,600 tons, and compared with July 21, it increased by 5,400 tons [5] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On July 25, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions remained relatively stable. For example, in Fift alle, the processing fee for 50% zinc concentrate was 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton [17] Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2509 contract on July 25, in terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan had the highest volume of 55,468, an increase of 5,329 compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures held 24,115, a decrease of 18. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures held 11,500, an increase of 748 [18]
锌市场:7月产量或增,短期锌价或偏强运行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-20 15:41
Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a stable supply and demand situation, with an increase in both domestic and imported zinc concentrate inventories, while consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to seasonal factors [1] Supply Side - Domestic zinc concentrate market remains stable, with the average weekly TC price at 3,800 RMB per metal ton and the imported zinc concentrate index rising to 73.75 USD per dry ton [1] - Port inventories of imported zinc concentrate increased by 107,000 tons to 440,000 tons, indicating a robust supply [1] - Despite the increase in imported TC, domestic smelting profits are high, leading smelters to prefer domestic concentrate, suggesting potential for further TC increases [1] Smelting Sector - In July, domestic smelting plants are undergoing both maintenance and resumption of operations, with refined zinc output expected to increase by approximately 12,000 tons month-on-month [1] - The recent rise in zinc concentrate processing fees has expanded smelter profits, and with sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, smelting activity is likely to increase [1] Consumption Trends - July and August are typically off-peak months for zinc consumption, resulting in reduced terminal orders and lower operational enthusiasm among downstream enterprises [1] - Downstream raw material inventories are at high levels, leading to poor purchasing sentiment, although policies like "old for new" may stimulate consumption [1] - Attention should be paid to consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [1] Inventory Data - As of July 17, SMM zinc ingot inventory stood at 93,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons from July 14 and 3,200 tons from July 10 [1] - LME zinc inventory on July 18 was 119,100 tons, up 13,900 tons from July 11 [1] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with indications of short positions exiting the market [1] - Zinc prices may rebound due to macroeconomic and funding conditions, but medium to long-term outlook suggests ample supply from the mining sector and potential for TC increases [1] - Smelters are expected to maintain high operating rates, leading to increased refined zinc supply, while consumption is entering a seasonal decline, potentially resulting in inventory accumulation [1] Trading Strategy - A single-sided trading approach is recommended, with short-term zinc prices expected to be strong, allowing for day trading on long positions [1] - As macro sentiment fades, consider shorting based on inventory accumulation levels [1] - For arbitrage operations, a wait-and-see approach is advised [1]
锌产业周报-20250707
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 03:09
锌产业周报 2025/07/07 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...
锌产业周报-20250623
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - The closure of the import window has led to a decrease in overseas inflows, and the downstream's demand for replenishing inventory at low prices has suppressed inventory accumulation, alleviating concerns about oversupply [3]. - Social inventory has not continued to rise, and market sentiment has stabilized, supporting zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - The downstream's raw material inventory remains at a high level, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate has put pressure on the demand side [3]. - The high - production expectation of smelters continues, and the increase in supply intensifies the oversupply pressure [3]. Trading Advisory Viewpoint The Shanghai zinc market shows a pattern of shock adjustment, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing and Terminal Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [5][6][9]. - It also includes data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area, 30 - major - city commercial housing transaction volume, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [12][14][17][19]. Futures and Spot Market Review - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, LME zinc basis, and the basis of zinc ingots in three regions [23][24][29]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - The report provides data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, SMM monthly zinc ingot production, China's monthly zinc ingot production and import volume, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and LME and SHFE zinc inventories [34][37][38].