多家机构预计，2026年铜供给持续偏紧。广发证券研报认为，预计2026年铜的终端供需将延续紧平衡态势，叠加美联储降息带来的流动性持续宽 松，铜价将继续上行。在经历完本轮库存周期后，铜价的底部未来将保持在1万美元/吨上方，铜板块股票的估值有望抬升。 华龙证券研报认为，在矿端长期偏紧背景下，美国关税影响与频繁发生的铜矿扰动事件进一步加剧紧缺预期，ICSG等研究机构调整其2026年供需 平衡预测，市场多预期铜供给将在2026年前后转入实质性短缺。供给紧缺为铜价提供支撑，更大向上弹性在于需求复苏节奏。 来源：证券时报网 作者：刘俊伶 多家机构预计，2026年铜供给持续偏紧。 LME铜盘中突破12000美元/吨 12月23日，LME铜盘中突破12000美元/吨，为该期货历史首次。昨日晚间，LME铜盘中最高报价12159.5美元/吨，收盘报价12055美元/吨，年内累 计上涨超37%，有望创下2010年以来最高单年度涨幅。国内市场方面，沪铜主力期货夜盘跟涨，收盘报9.49万元/吨，涨幅为1.04%。 消息面上，铜价近期上涨主要受宏观经济影响。美国11月CPI降温强化明年降息基准预期，美联储理事米兰最新表示，如果美联储明年 ...

Group 1: Business Confidence and Market Position - The company expresses confidence in the future development of its copper foil business, citing industry opportunities and a recovery in the lithium battery sector [1] - The company has been a leader in the copper processing industry for 36 years and is the only enterprise with a global layout, operating 23 production bases to meet customer demands for a sustainable supply chain [2] - The company has established a solid customer base in various sectors, including AIDC, new energy vehicles, and electronic communications [2] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - The company is innovating in copper foil technology, with products like nickel-plated copper foil and porous copper foil achieving industry leadership and receiving positive feedback from top-tier battery cell manufacturers [2] - The company has developed high-performance copper materials for AI cooling applications, which are being used in leading GPU cooling solutions [3] - A joint laboratory with West Lake University focuses on advanced metal materials and manufacturing, targeting high-growth applications in AI, data centers, and new energy vehicles [4] Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding and optimizing its production capacity based on customer orders and market demand, indicating a dynamic approach to capacity management [2] - The overseas business is steadily developing, contributing to profit growth, with ongoing updates to be provided in relevant announcements [2] Group 4: Sales Performance and Future Outlook - Sales of copper-based materials in the AIDC sector have significantly increased year-on-year, driven by the material's excellent conductivity and thermal properties [3] - The company aims to explore new production capabilities that align with its main business to enhance overall competitiveness and create new growth points [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd. is actively engaging in investor relations, focusing on advancements in copper foil products, overseas market expansion, and developments in the heat dissipation sector [1][2]. Group 1: Copper Foil Product Development - The company has made significant progress in the research and development of copper foil products, including nickel-plated copper foil for solid-state batteries, porous copper foil, double-sided rough copper foil, and ultra-high tensile copper foil, achieving industry-leading standards and receiving positive feedback from top domestic and international battery cell manufacturers [2]. - In the high-end standard copper foil sector, the company has optimized the bonding between PCB embedded circuit layers and substrates through reverse roughening treatment of RTF copper foil, reducing signal loss, while HVLP copper foil meets ultra-high frequency requirements with extremely low surface roughness [2]. Group 2: Overseas Market Expansion - As the first Chinese copper foil factory to expand overseas, Hailiang's Indonesian facility is accelerating its international business development and has established deep cooperation with five of the top ten global power battery clients and two of the top three 3C digital clients, with supply agreements set to commence in 2026 [3]. - The company anticipates further strengthening its competitive edge in the international copper foil market through the progress of its Indonesian operations [3]. Group 3: U.S. Market Performance - The Texas base of the company is experiencing favorable operating conditions, with a steady development trajectory. The processing fees for copper products in the U.S. are showing differentiated increases due to varying demand across different products and customer segments [4]. - The company plans to accelerate capacity ramp-up at its Texas facility to meet local market demand while focusing on high-value-added product lines to enhance profitability in the U.S. market [4]. Group 4: Heat Dissipation Sector - The company is leveraging over thirty years of copper processing expertise to meet the growing demand for heat dissipation materials driven by the explosion of AI computing power and global demand for cooling solutions [5]. - The company is currently providing various products for data centers and AI computing, including self-developed heat pipe materials and oxygen-free copper, and plans to increase investment in the heat dissipation sector to explore more market opportunities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved technological leadership in the lithium battery copper foil sector, with positive feedback from leading domestic and international battery cell manufacturers, and is set for stable mass delivery [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company has developed new types of copper foil products, including nickel-plated copper foil, porous copper foil, double-sided rough copper foil, and ultra-high tensile copper foil [1] - In the electronic circuit copper foil segment, RTF copper foil and HVLP copper foil have made breakthrough progress in the high-end market [1] Group 2: International Expansion - Indonesia Hailiang, as the first overseas copper foil factory from China, has signed supply agreements with 5 out of the top 10 global power battery customers and 2 out of the top 3 3C digital customers [1] - The cooperation agreements will commence in 2026 and will cover product specifications, quantities, and monetary amounts, which is expected to enhance the company's international competitive advantage in the copper foil business [1]

Group 1: Industry Events - The 2025 High-Performance Lithium Battery Annual Conference will be held from November 18-20, 2025, at JW Marriott Hotel in Shenzhen [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group has confirmed the synthesis process for lithium sulfide and plans to establish a pilot line by 2026, with sample production expected by the end of this year [4] - EVE Energy has successfully entered the battery supply system for Xiaopeng's MONA model, providing traditional square batteries which offer better adaptability and lower development costs compared to BYD's blade batteries [5] - Greeenme has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Lvtong Technology to focus on the recycling and utilization of new energy vehicles and power batteries, creating a closed-loop industrial chain [8] - Xingheng Power and Niu Electric have signed a strategic cooperation agreement for micro-blade electric motorcycle lithium batteries, with a collaboration scale of 3 GWh [9] - Tianqi Lithium has commenced the construction of a pilot project for 50 tons of lithium sulfide, utilizing new technology for rapid mass production [11] - Hebei Kuntian New Energy has launched its first phase of a silicon-carbon anode material production line, with plans for a second phase to reach an annual capacity of 5,000 tons [12][14] - Hailiang Co. has developed new copper foil products suitable for solid-state batteries, which are now ready for mass production [16] Group 3: International Developments - InoBat has received €53.8 million in subsidies and a €456,000 loan from the Spanish government to support the construction of a battery factory in Valladolid, with a total investment of approximately €712 million [17][19]

Group 1 - Greeenmei signed a memorandum of understanding with ASCENDELEMENTS to develop a leading lithium battery recycling system in Europe, focusing on resource recovery and material remanufacturing [1] - This collaboration aims to enhance the lifecycle value chain of new energy in Europe and solidify Greeenmei's position in the global battery recycling market [1] - The memorandum outlines the framework for cooperation but acknowledges uncertainties in specific implementation [1] Group 2 - Hailiang Co. has achieved mass production capability for new nickel-plated copper foil products suitable for solid-state batteries, indicating significant innovation in the copper foil sector [2] - The company has received positive feedback from leading battery manufacturers regarding its advanced copper foil products [2] Group 3 - The average transaction price of multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw materials increased by 8.57% week-on-week, reaching 53,200 RMB per ton [3] - The market is experiencing a temporary supply tightness as leading enterprises have reached their sales limits, while secondary enterprises are beginning to secure orders [3] - Optimistic market sentiment, influenced by national industrial policies, is supporting silicon material prices [3]

Group 1 - GreeMe signed a memorandum of understanding with ASCENDELEMENTS to explore collaboration in the European battery recycling and materials sector, aiming to establish a leading lithium battery recycling system in Europe [1] - The collaboration is expected to enhance the lifecycle value chain of new energy in Europe and strengthen GreeMe's position in the global battery recycling market [1] - The memorandum outlines the framework for cooperation but acknowledges uncertainties in specific implementation [1] Group 2 - Hailiang Co. has achieved mass production capability for new nickel-plated copper foil products suitable for solid-state batteries, receiving positive feedback from leading battery manufacturers [2] - The company continues to innovate in the copper foil sector, particularly with ultra-thin and high-performance copper foil products, demonstrating its competitiveness in the new energy battery materials market [2] Group 3 - The average transaction price of multi-crystalline silicon N-type recycled materials increased by 8.57% week-on-week, reaching 53,200 RMB per ton [3] - The market remains stable in terms of transaction volume, but the number of mainstream signing enterprises has increased to six, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] - The price increase is attributed to first-tier companies reaching their sales limits, leading to a temporary supply tightness, while optimistic market sentiment supported by national policies is expected to maintain a strong price trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. (002203.SZ) is focusing on continuous innovation in advanced copper foil technology, achieving industry-leading indicators in ultra-thin and high-resistance copper foils, with new nickel-plated copper foil products suitable for solid-state batteries ready for mass production and receiving positive feedback from leading battery companies [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company has made breakthroughs in high-end copper foil products such as RTF and HVLP, with expected sales of over 2,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [1] - New types of copper foil products, including nickel-plated copper foil for solid-state batteries, have been developed and are ready for mass production [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth - The demand for copper-based materials for cooling applications is expected to surge due to the explosive growth in global computing power and AI economy, with a more than 100% increase in order volume compared to the same period last year [1] - The company has established long-term partnerships with leading cooling enterprises in the US, China, and Taiwan, which are driving the demand for its products [1] Group 3: Product Offerings - The company provides a variety of products for data centers and AI computing fields, including self-developed heat pipe materials, oxygen-free copper, and customized copper bars [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. (002203.SZ) is focusing on continuous innovation in advanced copper foil technology, achieving industry-leading indicators in ultra-thin and high-resistance copper foils, particularly for lithium batteries [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company has developed new copper foil products, including nickel-plated copper foil suitable for solid-state batteries, which are now ready for mass production and have received positive feedback from leading battery manufacturers [1] - Breakthroughs have been made in high-end copper foil products such as RTF and HVLP, with expected sales of over 2,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Demand - The demand for copper-based materials for heat dissipation is expected to surge in 2025 due to the explosive growth of global computing power and AI economy, with the company's order volume in the first half of the year increasing by over 100% compared to the same period last year [1] - The company is providing a variety of products, including self-developed heat pipe materials, oxygen-free copper, and custom-shaped copper bars, particularly in the data center and AI computing sectors [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [2] Core Insights - Solid-state batteries are expected to achieve a technological breakthrough in electrolyte technology by 2027 and may reach industrialization by 2030, with sulfide solid-state batteries being the most emphasized route domestically and internationally [3][24] - The current focus is on sulfide electrolytes, while composite electrolytes are anticipated to be the best long-term solution [4][33] - High-nickel ternary materials and silicon-carbon anodes are expected to dominate in the short term, with lithium-rich manganese-based and lithium metal anodes being the long-term goals [5][56] - Nickel-coated or nickel-based current collectors are being developed to address corrosion issues, while porous copper foils are being explored for their lightweight and elastic properties [6] - Other materials such as single-walled carbon nanotubes and UV adhesives are also gaining attention for their potential in solid-state battery applications [7] Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Overview - Solid-state batteries are considered the ultimate form of lithium batteries, balancing safety and energy density [16][18] - The timeline for achieving significant milestones includes 200-300 Wh/kg energy density by 2027 and 400 Wh/kg by 2030 [19][24] Electrolytes - Sulfide electrolytes are currently the focus, with challenges in cost reduction and production scalability [4][39] - The development of halide electrolytes is also being pursued to enhance electrochemical stability and compatibility with high-voltage cathodes [44] Cathode Materials - High-nickel ternary materials are expected to be the primary choice for solid-state batteries, with ongoing modifications to improve performance [45][50] - Lithium-rich manganese-based materials are being developed to enhance energy density and reduce costs [55] Anode Materials - CVD silicon-carbon anodes are emerging as a leading option due to their performance and cost advantages, with significant growth expected in the coming years [61] - Lithium metal anodes are viewed as the ultimate solution, with ongoing research to address associated challenges [64] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in various material segments, including sulfide electrolytes, high-nickel ternary cathodes, CVD silicon-carbon anodes, and nickel-based current collectors [8]