1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - The copper market shows a positive trend, with the Shanghai copper closing up and the spot premium expanding. However, the resistance at the integer level is strong, and short positions at high levels are recommended to be held [1] - The aluminum market is affected by factors such as cost and demand, with short - term fluctuations. The downstream start - up is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to remain low. The alumina supply is excessive, and it is weakly oscillating [2][5] - The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Although there is support below, the rebound momentum is insufficient, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is maintained in the medium term [3] - The nickel and stainless - steel market has weak fundamentals. Although there is an intention to rebound, short - selling positions are to be sought [6] - The tin market has potential for a short - term upward rush, and long positions held earlier are recommended to be retained [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in a strong - side oscillation. The market focuses on the expectations after production suspension, and risk control is necessary [8] - The industrial silicon market is in an oscillating state, with the supply and demand both increasing. If the polysilicon production declines significantly in September, the supply - demand contradiction will be more prominent [9] - The polysilicon market is also in an oscillating pattern. Although the spot price has rebounded, the actual trading volume has not increased significantly, and the upside space is limited [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Thursday, Shanghai copper closed with a positive line in an oscillating manner, regaining the MA60 moving average. The current copper price is 79,190 yuan, with the Shanghai premium expanding to 205 yuan and the Guangdong premium remaining at 65 yuan. The SMM social inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 127,100 tons this week. Attention should be paid to the US Q2 GDP in the evening. The resistance at the integer level is strong, and short positions at high levels should be held [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly today, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. The downstream start - up is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. However, the inflection point of inventory accumulation is not clear, and Shanghai aluminum will maintain short - term oscillations. The cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the spot - to - futures cross - variety price difference may further narrow. The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, the supply is excessive, and it is weakly oscillating, testing the support at the 3,000 - yuan mark [2] Zinc - The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Short - sellers increased their positions, and Shanghai zinc opened and closed lower with heavy trading volume. The 22,000 - yuan integer level is under test. The downstream purchasing at low prices increased, and the spot trading improved. The increase in mine production is continuously realized, and funds continue to short - sell the mine profit on the trading floor. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is maintained in the medium term. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the consumption is expected to improve month - on - month but be weak year - on - year. There is support below Shanghai zinc, but the rebound momentum is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the possible return of foreign long - positions [3] Aluminum - The LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the external market is dominated by a bearish atmosphere. Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level under the game between cost and demand, and is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan level. The contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, and the market attention is low. It is recommended to wait and see. There is a strong expectation of smelter maintenance in September, and attention should be paid to the implementation [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel's rebound was blocked and then declined, with dull market trading. Traders are strongly willing to hold prices, and the premium range of mainstream electrolytic nickel remains between - 100 and 300 yuan/ton this week. Affected by the decline in the futures price, the downstream purchasing volume increased this week. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the ferronickel inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained unchanged at 934,000 tons, which is still at a high level. Attention should be paid to the end of inventory reduction. Technically, nickel prices still intend to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak, and short - selling positions are to be sought [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a positive line with increased positions, above 272,000 yuan, and the moving average combination shows a bullish arrangement. The current tin price is adjusted to 271,800 yuan, and the real - time discount to the delivery month has further expanded to 560 yuan. It is expected that tin prices still have potential for a short - term upward rush, and the level above 275,000 yuan is a relatively high position. Long positions held earlier are recommended to be retained [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price declined, and the market trading volume shrank. Some miners sold their goods when the futures price rose, and there were sporadic auctions. After the futures price plunged, there was phased reluctance to sell. The downstream continuously adjusted their psychological price levels, and the restocking behavior was generally cautious. The total market inventory slightly decreased by 700 tons to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 47,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 43,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream decreased by 5% week - on - week. The market is mainly focused on the expectations after the downstream production suspension, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on prices. Overall, it is in a strong - side oscillation, and risk control is necessary [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up, driven by the sentiment repair of "anti - involution" futures varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. On the fundamental side, the production in the main producing areas of Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased this month, and the polysilicon production plan in August increased significantly, forming a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The weekly social inventory slightly decreased. If the polysilicon production declines significantly in September, the supply - demand contradiction will be more prominent. Currently, it is mainly driven by the sentiment of other varieties, and it is expected to maintain oscillations [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures recovered most of the decline, closing at around 49,600 yuan/ton. On the spot side, the SMM data shows that the price of M - type re - feed material has rebounded to 49,000 yuan/ton, but the actual trading volume has not increased significantly. The spot price is restricted by high inventory, and the futures price is also suppressed by the increase in warehouse receipts and the uncertain production - capacity control policy. The upside space is limited. However, there is still an "anti - involution" expectation in the industry, and the risk of short - selling at the lower edge of the range is relatively high. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a long/short position, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy expectations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation, regaining part of the intraday gains. The spot copper was reported at 78,830 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium slightly shrank to 150 yuan. Overnight, the August manufacturing PMI indices in Europe and the US were better than expected, driving the London copper to rebound. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the MA60 moving average, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with a spot premium of 30 yuan in East China. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. The downstream start - up was stable, and the inventory was likely to remain at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc retraced to the previous low. The downstream's buying sentiment improved at low prices, and the SMM zinc social inventory slightly decreased to 132,900 tons. The short - term was regarded as an oscillation, and the medium - term was to maintain a short - allocation idea on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel pulled back, and the market trading was mediocre. The stainless steel social inventory had decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced stainless steel sources was still poor. Shanghai nickel was in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a negative line oscillation above the MA60 moving average. After the centralized delivery on the third Wednesday of LME, the 0 - 3 month shifted to a discount of 2 dollars, and the inventory was at a low level. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell below 80,000 yuan, and the market trading was active. The market was regarded as an oscillation, and risk control should be done well [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose slightly. The current market supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the price was expected to maintain an oscillation [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The current spot price corresponded to the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the upper space still depended on the implementation progress of the production capacity management policy. The operation idea was to go long on dips [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend, and short positions should be held or option strategies can be attempted [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have short - term correction pressure, while the cast aluminum alloy has certain resilience, and the upward space of alumina is limited [2] - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] - The lead price continues the low - level consolidation trend, and there is a possibility of further decline if overseas low - price lead is imported [5] - The nickel market has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [6] - The tin market should continue the short - selling direction [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in the area for short - position layout [8] - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [10] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillated at 78,000 yuan on Tuesday. The spot copper price was 77,995 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed to 540 yuan. The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum futures had short - term correction pressure after breaking the upward trend line. The cast aluminum alloy had certain resilience. The upward space of alumina was limited due to over - capacity [2] Zinc - The inventories of both domestic and foreign zinc markets increased, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. The short - selling on rebounds strategy should be continued [3] Lead - The LME lead inventory increased significantly, dragging down the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead was relatively resistant to decline, but there was a risk of further decline if overseas low - price lead was imported [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price dropped sharply, and there was room for rebound. The stainless steel market was in the off - season, and the inventory was at a high level [6] Tin - The Shanghai tin price opened a decline and was supported at 262,000 yuan. The short - selling direction should be continued [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated and rebounded, but the inventory continued to rise. The short - position layout area had arrived [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose significantly, and the fundamentals improved marginally. It was expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rebound, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile and upward, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily analysis and investment suggestions for various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., based on factors such as spot prices, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and international events [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper closed positive. Today's spot copper price is 78415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium shrank to 40 yuan, and Guangdong premium shrank to 30 yuan. With the US manufacturing PMI in expansion and the euro - zone in contraction, and LME copper still stable at the MA20, short positions should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum declined with a 150 - yuan premium in East China. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1.5 million tons. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, supply concerns eased. With high market divergence, shorting opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread should be noted. Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. There is a large spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Alumina spot trading was scarce, and with domestic production capacity in surplus, shorting on rebounds is recommended [3] Zinc - Due to high capital congestion, some short - sellers took profits, causing the price to rise. But downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and the spot premium declined. With supply recovering and demand weak, shorting on rebounds is advised [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined in a volatile manner. With the supply pressure increasing at the ore end and the price support from the upstream weakening, short positions should be held [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed positive with increased positions. With better - than - expected tin concentrate imports in May and weakening consumption, a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts should be held [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded. With the overall inventory increasing and the decline in the downstream inventory, and the slowdown in the decline of Australian ore prices, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon rose slightly. With the expected increase in polysilicon production and the end of organic silicon maintenance, the market rebounded. But with increased supply expected in June, the upside space is limited, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded with reduced positions, possibly due to technical repair. With the terminal demand falling and supply increasing, the imbalance between supply and demand is intensifying, and the trend is expected to be weakly volatile [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium in the market with poor operability and a recommendation to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, same as aluminum, a short - term equilibrium state with low operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited trading floor operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and trade frictions. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated with limited price movement. The SMM spot copper price was 78,515 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium dropped to 150 yuan, and the Guangdong premium remained at 220 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still below 1,000 yuan. Hold short positions in the 2507 contract [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. The East China spot premium remained at 90 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 23,000 tons and 1,000 tons respectively compared to last Thursday. The demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction, but the inventory has smoothly decreased to a low level. Shanghai aluminum continues to test the resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. The Guinea -停产 mining area has a long - term shutdown risk, but the impact is less likely to expand. The short - term spot is tight, but the supply elasticity is large after the industry profit recovers. The Guinea ore has support above $70, and it is not advisable to chase short after the futures discount widens [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc once soared due to the news of a possible shutdown of a smelter in Hechi and then回调. The SMM 0 zinc price was 22,730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. The spot in Guangdong is a bit tight, and downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices. The TC in June continued to rise. At the end of the peak season, the pressure of weakening domestic and foreign demand is large. Zinc is mainly a short - position allocation [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The traditional consumption peak season is coming to an end. The stainless - steel supply remains high, and the market transaction is still light. The inventory of nickel - iron increased by 900 tons to 29,600 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 974,000 tons. Short - position investors can consider entering the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin retraced its intraday gains and closed down. The spot tin price slightly rose to 264,800 yuan. Adopt a short - position strategy [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 132,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 600 tons to 41,000 tons, and the smelter inventory increased by 50 tons to 57,000 tons. The downstream restocking willingness is poor, and the upstream has passive restocking. The Australian ore price has fallen nearly 20% in the past two months. The mid - stream production is basically stable. Short - position investors can consider taking profits [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures increased positions significantly, and the price continued to decline, closing at 7,440 yuan/ton. The spot prices of all grades decreased. The supply - side pressure continues to accumulate, and the demand - side performance is weak. The cost - side support is continuously weakening, and the silicon price is expected to continue to decline [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon recovered part of its intraday losses and rebounded above the cost line of 35,000 yuan/ton. The average price of the SMM re - feed material was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. In May, the supply - demand was nearly balanced but did not turn into a de - stocking trend. In June, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decline slightly. The price may have a short - term rebound but is expected to remain weak [11]